GARDA PROPERTY GROUP (GDF)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

06/08/2026

1

Buy

$1.30

18.72%

Garda Property provided FY26 results that reflected growth of 54% with FFO of 11.1c, beating both guidance and Morgans' forecasts. The lending book did the heavy lifting as deployed capital tripled and loan returns averaged 20%.

The property portfolio remains stable. The broker points out the "dual-engine" business model generates income growth from the industrial property portfolio while the private credit lending book is positioned to benefit from higher rates. Buy rating retained. Target rises to $1.30 from $1.15.

FORECAST
Morgans forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 10.50 cents.
Morgans forecasts a full year FY28 dividend of 9.20 cents and EPS of 11.80 cents.

04/08/2026

1

Buy

$1.61

47.03%

Moelis maintains a Buy rating for Garda Property with a $1.61 target price following full-year FY26 earnings per share growth of 54% to 11.1c, beating initial company guidance by 24%.

Private lending revenue nearly tripled to $20.6m in FY26 to represent approximately 50% of total revenue as the committed loan book expanded to $134m.

Temporary vacancy increases across the industrial portfolio to 23% stem from redevelopment works at Morningside and recent turnover at Pinkenba, though bank guarantees and capitalised interest cushion near-term earnings impacts.

Official FY27 guidance projecting earnings per share of 10.5c appears conservative against the broker's estimate of 11.2c given strong loan deployment momentum.

Trading at a -34% discount to net tangible assets of $1.64 per share, the analyst considers the stock deep value supported by an expected FY27 distribution yield of 8.5%.

FORECAST
Moelis forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 9.30 cents and EPS of 11.20 cents.