CHARTER HALL RETAIL REIT (CQR)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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10/08/2026

1

Buy

$4.70

19.29%

Post the initial take, below, and the conference call with management, Citi believes the REIT's portfolio transformation into a balanced mix of convenience shopping centres and net lease retail has strengthened earnings resilience.

Upcoming CPI-linked rent reviews across most of the net lease portfolio are viewed as a near-term earnings catalyst, while limited new retail supply and population growth provide additional tailwinds.

Record occupancy, specialty tenant retention and sales productivity reinforce Citi's positive view, with rental growth rather than cap rate compression driving higher portfolio valuations.

The broker retains its Buy rating and $4.70 target from $4.50. The NTA rose 8.4% to $5.03, placing the stock at around a -19% discount to NTA. The valuation is viewed as "compelling".

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It is Citi's first assessment that Charter Hall Retail REIT delivered a "solid" FY26 result. Operating EPS of 26.4cps is in line with upgraded guidance.

FY27 operating EPS guidance of no less than 27.3cps (growth of 3.5%) is slightly below Citi's expectation of 27.6cps, while DPS guidance of 26.4cps is slightly above its forecast.

Commentary also points out NTA per unit rose 8.4% to $5.03, placing the stock at a circa -19% discount to NTA. The A-REIT sector average is -13.8%, the broker highlights.

Buy. Target $4.50.

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11/08/2026

3

Downgrade to Hold from Buy

$4.51

14.47%

Moelis downgrades Charter Hall Retail REIT to a Hold rating while its target price is increased to $4.51 from $4.48 on valuation grounds.

The trust delivered a solid full-year operating result supported by active portfolio curation and debt refinancing, though higher interest rate assumptions lead to lower per-share earnings estimates.

Look-through gearing remains elevated above 40%, leaving earnings sensitive to interest rate movements as debt hedging coverage rolls off into FY28.

Operating performance across the underlying portfolio remains robust, with same-property net property income growing 3.0% and shopping centre vacancy tightening to a 15-year low of 0.9%.

Shares trade at an implied capitalisation rate of 6.0%, which the analyst views as relatively inexpensive but sitting close to fair value following recent share price outperformance.

FORECAST
Moelis forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 26.40 cents and EPS of 27.30 cents.
Moelis forecasts a full year FY28 dividend of 26.80 cents and EPS of 27.60 cents.