The Overnight Report: Oil, Anthropic, Q3 CPI

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US markets rallied higher on the back of Anthropic-IPO enthusiasm, led by Nasdaq with ongoing buying in the semiconductor and memory stocks.

The Federal Reserve decision will be handed down tomorrow morning (AEST) with the market expecting the US central bank to remain on hold (for now).

After another positive day yesterday, ahead of today's 3Q2026 CPI print release at 11.30am (AEST), ASX200 futures are pointing to a positive start.

World Overnight
SPI Overnight	8884.00	+ 18.00	0.20%
S&P ASX 200	8850.10	+ 40.20	0.46%
S&P500	7722.60	+ 45.83	0.60%
Nasdaq Comp	26477.81	+ 308.43	1.18%
DJIA	52377.57	+ 15.99	0.03%
S&P500 VIX	17.52	– 0.87	– 4.73%
US 10-year yield	4.99	+ 0.01	0.14%
USD Index	102.30	+ 0.30	0.29%
FTSE100	10686.54	– 80.79	– 0.75%
DAX30	25590.77	+ 179.93	0.71%

Good Morning,

The ASX200 climbed off its morning lows of down -0.4% to close up by 40.2 points or 0.46% to 8850.10.

Materials led the rally, up 2.78%, with Consumer Discretionary and Financials lagging.

The September quarter CPI print is due out at 11.30am today with National Australia Bank forecasting a trimmed mean at 1% and headline at 1.2%; both are in line with consensus estimates.

NAB sees risks to the trimmed mean forecast as skewed to the downside. The market is currently pricing a 60% chance that the RBA delivers a 25bos rate hike at next Tuesday’s meeting.

UBS on Sandfire Resources ((SFR)):

“Despite a more cautious near-term copper outlook, our forecasts are unchanged and, following the ~20% share price decline since late August due to overall market weakness, SFR is trading at a more attractive valuation than it has for some time.

“Trading at a ~15% discount to our revised NPV-based PT of A$23.35/sh (+1%) and 4.8x/4.4x FY27/28e EV/EBITDA, we upgrade to BUY.

“Lifting our LT copper price from US $5.50/lb to US$6.00/lb would add a further ~A$2/sh to NPV.”

For more details and to stay in touch with which companies are reporting, AGMs and going ex-dividend, check out the FNArena Calendar https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/

Market Overview, J.L. Bernstein extract

Chipmakers Are Helping Their Customers Pay

Three big banks and Blackstone lined up US$63 billion so Anthropic can buy more of Broadcom’s chips.

Per the Wall Street Journal, it’s the biggest AI debt deal ever, and Broadcom’s CEO stepped in to close it.

Nvidia, which sells Meta its AI chips, is also putting US$3 billion into Meta’s stock sale.

Chip stocks rose for a second day, and Broadcom now needs Anthropic’s stock debut to go well, too.

Shoppers Are Holding Up Better Than Expected

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence reading rose to 91.7, well above the 81 economists expected, as gas got cheaper.

UPS CEO Carol Tomé said “the outlook for holiday demand is strong.” The soft spot is big purchases.

Whirlpool cut its revenue forecast, and the same survey showed people plan to spend less on big-ticket items.

Boeing and JetBlue Traded on the Earnings Call, Not the Quarter

Boeing beat on revenue, then fell more than -US$20 a share after its call. CEO Kelly Ortberg said the 737 MAX ramp-up “didn’t go as smoothly” and won’t hit 47 a month until 2027.

JetBlue posted a bigger loss than expected and cut its outlook, yet the stock rose nearly a fifth.

CEO Joanna Geraghty told investors the airline has the cash to reach its 2028 earnings goal.

CBA Economics: Daily Alert, Ashwin Clarke, extract

Most US indices advanced as optimism around the AI trade persisted ahead of a raft of key corporate earnings, while easing oil prices also supported risk appetite heading into the Federal Reserve’s policy decision tomorrow.

The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady. The Dow Jones index finished flat, the S&P 500 index rose 0.8% and the Nasdaq index added 1.2%.

European sharemarkets were mostly higher, helped by strong earnings and a pullback in crude prices, which erased losses from earlier in the session when HSBC weighed on sentiment following a quarterly revenue miss.

The continent-wide FTSEurofirst 300 index ended up 0.4% and the UK FTSE100 fell -0.8%.

US government bond yields were relatively steady ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. The US 10-year Treasury yield gained 1 point to 5.00% while the US 2-year Treasury yield added 2 points to 4.74%.

Currencies were mixed against the US dollar. The Aussie dollar gained 0.2% to USD70.27cents.

Global oil prices fell as traders focused on Middle East peace talks, though prices remained near the highest in six months as the Houthi-Saudi Arabia conflict raged on and investors worried about the potential for more fighting in the US-Israeli war with Iran.

Brent crude futures settled -1.7% lower at US$113.88 a barrel.

Base metal prices were higher. Copper futures lifted 1.8% as demand strengthened in top consumer, China. Meanwhile, aluminium futures gained 2%, touching a more than two-week peak after orders to withdraw 3,500 tonnes of metal from warehouses in Asia.

Gold futures rose as lower oil prices lent support, with market participants awaiting the Federal Reserve policy meeting. The futures settled up 0.9% at US$4,075 an ounce.

Iron ore futures settled flat at US$90.70 a tonne.

Looking Ahead: In the US, the Federal Reserve makes its interest rate decision. We expect no change in the Funds rate.

In Australia, inflation data will be published today. We expect the policy-relevant trimmed mean inflation to print at 1.0%/qtr in Q3 26.

The RBA Governor will also appear before the Senate Economics committee.

Anthropic mega initial public offering, Claudia Kwan, NorthStar Impact Funds

“AI is changing the way we think about resources and the allocation of capital. The success of the Anthropic IPO will validate that AI is here and being used.

“If Australia or any other country in the world wants to stay competitive in this new industrial phase, we need to ensure we have the clean energy and water ready and cost competitive.

“It is a huge opportunity for Australia to position ourselves for this next wave of industrialisation.

“This further validates our bullish stance on critical minerals, water, and electrification and Australian companies leveraged to circularity technologies that support sustainable resource extraction and clean tech rollouts.”

Macro Talking Points, Beniot Anne, MFS Investment Management

Skipping a hike. Our investment team expects the Fed funds rate to be kept unchanged at this week’s Fed policy meeting.

We are of the view that the Fed wants to be measured, with the possibility of a hike at every other meeting in the period ahead.

In other words, a rate hike in December remains possible.

For now, what we have recently heard from various Fed speakers is no sense of urgency. As underscored by our investment team, the Fed Chair did not reiterate his forceful anti-inflation message even when he had an opportunity to do so, perhaps a sign that the recent Fed hawkishness may be tamped down somewhat.

Looking at current market pricing, one could argue that it still looks a tad excessive, although the uncertainty around the Fed’s monetary policy outlook continues to run high.

Against this backdrop, expressing high-conviction views on duration has become a much more challenging business.

Liberté, Égalité, Fragilité. France may have avoided a Moody’s rating downgrade, but this does not meaningfully alter the fundamental picture.

In our view, France is in a predicament, and unless something materially changes on the fiscal management front, the risk of further rating downgrades remains elevated.

At this juncture, we believe that investors should consider moving into risk-management mode, as opposed to chasing a potential buying opportunity.

In other words, we remain cautious. This is mainly a reflection of the limited policy room that the French authorities have, as well as the challenging political outlook.

We also see potential for the macro backdrop to deteriorate further, mainly driven by poor business and consumer sentiment. Some European sovereigns are trading at attractive levels at this juncture. Just not France.

Simply the Best?

For many years, especially more recently, equities were seen as, to borrow from the late, great Tina Turner, “Simply the Best”.

With government bond yields near historic lows, investors seeking meaningful returns had few alternatives. TINA, or There Is No Alternative, became a defining feature of asset allocation.

But we now believe that TINA may be turning, courtesy of the attractiveness of total yields and risk-adjusted returns offered by global fixed income.

Now that the US 10-year Treasury yield trades at around 5%, the equity risk premium –-the extra return investors demand for owning stocks over bonds-– has reversed, with Treasuries now paying 119 basis points more than the current 3.8% earnings yield on US equities.

This change in the relative valuation backdrop argues for a more balanced approach to asset allocation, in our view.

Now may be the time for investors to consider reassessing their equity exposure, revisiting their strategic fixed-income allocations and looking across global bond markets for attractive income and diversification opportunities (contribution from Zach Knope, Strategist – Insights Analysis).

Corporate news in Australia:

• Woodside Energy ((WDS)) agrees to sell its 33.44% stake in the Greater Sunrise gas project to Timor-Leste’s TIMOR GAP for up to US$200m, prioritising nearer-term production and cash flow
• Octopus agrees to acquire Victoria’s Golden Plains Wind Farm 2 for over $2bn, backed by international pension investors
• PAG may revisit the sale of Oporto and Chicken Treat owner Craveable Brands after total comprehensive income rose to $25.9m despite declining revenue
• Superhero acquires a 10% stake in Raiz Invest ((RZI)), strengthening its position in Australia’s digital investment market
• UniSuper reportedly holds up to 0.5% of Firmus’ pre-IPO shares despite CIO John Pearce publicly criticising the neocloud’s failed $44bn float
• AirTrunk secures a $4.25bn green loan from 32 financial institutions for its western Sydney data centre, lifting global committed debt financing to approximately $38.4bn
• National Reconstruction Fund Corporation commits up to $110m in senior debt financing for Victoria’s Donald rare earths project
• Turaco Gold ((TCG)) seeks to raise $105m through a discounted placement to fund an increased stake in a Cote d’Ivoire gold project
• CommBank ((CBA)) faces a potential $3bn valuation on its original $153m Anthropic investment ahead of the proposed IPO, although escrow restrictions and a preference to retain exposure may limit any sell-down
• CommBank’s ((CBA)) CommSec prepares to market Anthropic’s proposed $2.85trn IPO to Australian retail investors
• Advent International raises US$30bn across flagship and mid-market private equity funds as it expands in Asia-Pacific, following its majority investment in New Zealand’s NZCR Group

On the calendar today:

-NZ RBNZ monetary policy review

-NZ RBNZ rate

-AU 3Q CPI

-AU 3Q CPI trimmed mean

-AU RBA senior officials Senate Economics Legislation Committee appearance

-US FOMC rate

-US Sep Advance goods trade balance

-US Sep Building permits (final)

-US Sep MBA mortgage applications

-US Sep Trade balance

-US Sep Wholesale inventories (prelim)

-4DMEDICAL LIMITED ((4DX)) AGM

-AUSTRALIAN CLINICAL LABS LIMITED ((ACL)) AGM

-DETERRA ROYALTIES LIMITED ((DRR)) AGM

-DATA#3 LIMITED. ((DTL)) AGM

-DEXUS ((DXS)) AGM

-FORTESCUE LIMITED ((FMG)) AGM

-ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED ((ILU)) Qtrly update

-SITEMINDER LIMITED ((SDR)) AGM

-VICINITY CENTRES ((VCX)) AGM

-WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED ((WOW)) Qtrly update

FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/

Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures
Gold (oz)	4062.22	+ 48.87	1.22%
Silver (oz)	54.46	+ 0.56	1.04%
Copper (lb)	6.63	+ 0.12	1.84%
Aluminium (lb)	1.38	+ 0.00	0.14%
Nickel (lb)	7.05	– 0.07	– 0.99%
Zinc (lb)	1.77	+ 0.05	2.90%
West Texas Crude	100.01	– 1.67	– 1.64%
Brent Crude	114.31	– 1.02	– 0.88%
Iron Ore (t)	90.78	0.00	0.00%

The Australian share market over the past thirty days…

Index	27 Oct 2026	Week To Date	Month To Date (Oct)	Quarter To Date (Oct-Dec)	Year To Date (2026)
S&P ASX 200 (ex-div)	8850.10	0.62%	0.69%	0.69%	1.56%

BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS
BSL	BlueScope Steel	Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy	Ord Minnett
EDV	Endeavour Group	Downgrade to Sell from Lighten	Ord Minnett
ELD	Elders	Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy	Morgans
FMG	Fortescue	Downgrade to Sell from Hold	Bell Potter
KAR	Karoon Energy	Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform	Macquarie
LOT	Lotus Resources	Upgrade to Speculative Buy from Hold	Ord Minnett
MFG	Magellan Financial	Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate	Morgans
MMS	McMillan Shakespeare	Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral	Macquarie
NCK	Nick Scali	Upgrade to Hold from Lighten	Ord Minnett
NEM	Newmont Corp	Upgrades to Accumulate from Hold	Ord Minnett
		Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy	Morgans
NXT	NextDC	Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight	Morgan Stanley
OBM	Ora Banda Mining	Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral	Macquarie
OCC	Orthocell	Downgrade to Speculative Hold from Speculative Buy	Bell Potter
RMS	Ramelius Resources	Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral	Macquarie
RRL	Regis Resources	Upgrade to Hold from Sell	Ord Minnett

For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website. Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)

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