FORTESCUE LIMITED (FMG)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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FMG - FORTESCUE LIMITED

FNArena Sector : Iron Ore

Year End: June

GICS Industry Group : Materials

Debt/EBITDA: 0.5

Index: ASX20 | ASX50 | ASX100 | ASX200 | ASX300 | ALL-ORDS

Fortescue Metals is an Australian iron ore company with operations in the Pilbara, Western Australia. It is the fourth largest iron ore producer in the world and became a listed company, through a backdoor-listing, in 2003.

LAST PRICE	CHANGE +/-	CHANGE %	VOLUME
$16.30 24 Mar 2025	0.510 OPEN $15.99	3.23% HIGH $16.30	6,828,775 LOW $15.67

TARGET

$18.157

11.4% upside

Franking for last dividend paid out: 100%

OTHER COMPANIES IN THE SAME SECTOR
ARI . BCI . CIA . DRR . FEX . GEN . GRR . MGX . MIN .

FNARENA'S MARKET CONSENSUS FORECASTS

12 Month Avg FX Values

Present FX Values

Original Currency

Title	FY25 Forecast	FY26 Forecast
EPS (cps)	163.3	xxx
DPS (cps)	95.0	xxx
EPS Growth	N/A	xxx
DPS Growth	N/A	xxx
PE Ratio	10.0	xxx
Dividend Yield	5.8%	xxx
Div Pay Ratio(%)	58.2%	xxx

Title	FY25 Forecast	FY26 Forecast
EPS (cps)	169.4	xxx
DPS (cps)	95.0	xxx
EPS Growth	N/A	xxx
DPS Growth	N/A	xxx
PE Ratio	9.6	xxx
Dividend Yield	5.8%	xxx
Div Pay Ratio(%)	56.1%	xxx

Title	FY23 Actual	FY24 Actual	FY25 Forecast	FY26 Forecast
EPS (cps)	xxx	185.0	106.6	xxx
DPS (cps)	xxx	N/A	59.8	xxx
EPS Growth	xxx	18.6%	- 42.4%	xxx
DPS Growth	xxx	N/A	N/A	xxx
Div Pay Ratio(%)	xxx	N/A	56.1%	xxx

This company reports in USD.
All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Dividend yield today if purchased 3 years ago: 10.22%

DIVIDEND YIELD CALCULATOR

Past performance is no guarantee for the future. Investors should take into account that heavy swings in share price or exceptional circumstances (a la 2009) can have a significant impact on short term calculations and averages

Last ex-div: 04/09 - ex-div 89c (franking 100%)

HISTORICAL DATA ARE ALL IN AUD

Copyright © 2025 FactSet UK Limited. All rights reserved

Title	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
EPS Basic	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	282.0
DPS All	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	197.0
Sales/Revenue	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	27,804.6 M
Book Value Per Share	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	951.8
Net Operating Cash Flow	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	12,026.8 M
Net Profit Margin	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	31.19 %

EPS Basic

Negative
Growth
Slowing

DPS All

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Sales/Revenue

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Book Value Per Share

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Net Operating Cash Flow

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Net Profit Margin

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Title	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Return on Capital Employed	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	30.81 %
Return on Invested Capital	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	24.14 %
Return on Assets	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	19.31 %
Return on Equity	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	30.81 %
Return on Total Capital	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	35.83 %
Free Cash Flow ex dividends	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	1,384.1 M

Return on Capital Employed

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Return on Invested Capital

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Return on Assets

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Return on Equity

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Return on Total Capital

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Free Cash Flow ex dividends

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Title	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Short-Term Debt	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	287 M
Long Term Debt	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	7,798 M
Total Debt	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	8,086 M
Goodwill - Gross	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	292 M
Cash & Equivalents - Generic	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	7,341 M
Price To Book Value	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	2.25

Short-Term Debt

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Long Term Debt

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Total Debt

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Goodwill - Gross

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Cash & Equivalents - Generic

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Price To Book Value

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Title	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Capex	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	4,324.8 M
Capex % of Sales	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	15.55 %
Cost of Goods Sold	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	13,452 M
Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	1,390 M
Research & Development	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	755 M
Investments - Total	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	545 M

Capex

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Capex % of Sales

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Cost of Goods Sold

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Research & Development

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Investments - Total

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Negative

Growth

Slowing

EXPERT VIEWS
EXTRA COVERAGE

EXPERT VIEWS

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Sentiment Indicator

0.0

No. Of Recommendations

BROKER	DATE	RATING	RECOMMENDATION	TARGET PRICE	% TO REACH TARGET	COMMENTARY
UBS	xx/xx/xxxx	3	xxxxxxx xx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx	$xx.xx	xx.xx%	Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only. Login above or Get a Free Trial
Ord Minnett	xx/xx/xxxx	1	xxx	$xx.xx	xx.xx%	Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only. Login above or Get a Free Trial
Morgan Stanley	xx/xx/xxxx	3	xxxxx-xxxxxx	$xx.xx	xx.xx%	Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only. Login above or Get a Free Trial
Citi	24/02/2025	3	Neutral	$20.00	22.70%	Citi lowers its target for Fortescue to $20 from $21 and maintains a Neutral rating following interim results. A summary of the broker's research on result's day follows. In a neutral to slightly negative outcome, according to Citi, Fortescue’s 1H underlying earnings (EBITDA) of US$3.6bn were in line with its estimates but -3% below consensus, with a 48% earnings (EBITDA) margin. Profit of US$1.6bn was -6% below Citi and -12% below consensus due to higher depreciation and amortisation, while free cash flow was US$0.7bn after -US$1.8bn in capex. A fully franked interim dividend of 50 cents reflected a 65% payout ratio, -7% below consensus. FY25 guidance is largely unchanged, though energy capex has been trimmed as Fortescue reassesses the timelines for its Arizona and Gladstone PEM50 projects. FORECAST Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 94.00 cents and EPS of 163.91 cents. Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 94.97 cents and EPS of 128.68 cents.
Morgans	xx/xx/xxxx	3	xxxx	$xx.xx	xx.xx%	Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only. Login above or Get a Free Trial
Macquarie	xx/xx/xxxx	5	xxxxxxxxxxxx	$xx.xx	xx.xx%	Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only. Login above or Get a Free Trial
Bell Potter	xx/xx/xxxx	3	xxxx	$xx.xx	xx.xx%	Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only. Login above or Get a Free Trial

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EXTRA COVERAGE

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No. Of Recommendations

Please note: unlike Broker Call Report, BC Extra is not updated daily. The info you see might not be the latest. FNArena does its best to update ASAP.

BROKER	DATE	RATING	RECOMMENDATION	TARGET PRICE	% TO REACH TARGET	COMMENTARY
Jarden	xx/xx/xxxx	3	xxxxxxx xx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxxxxxxxxx	$xx.xx	xx.xx%	Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only. Login above or Get a Free Trial
Goldman Sachs	26/02/2025	5	Sell	$16.20	-0.61%	Fortescue's 1H25 underlying EBITA was -3% below Goldman Sachs' forecast, and interim dividend of 50c was below 54c forecast but payout of 65% was in-line. The broker notes the targeted date for ramp-up of the Iron Ore Bridge projection to 22Mtpa by September quarter is under review, but it is already factoring in a slower ramp-up to 10Mtpa by FY27. The analyst continues to think Fortescue is at an inflection point on capital allocation and assumes a reduction in the dividend payout ratio to 50% from FY26 onwards from the current 65%. The broker lowered FY25 and FY26 forecasts by -2% and -4% respectively. Target price drops to $16.2 from $16.4, and Sell maintained. FORECAST Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 96.51 cents and EPS of 160.85 cents. Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 72.00 cents and EPS of 144.00 cents.

BROKER

DATE

RATING

RECOMMENDATION

TARGET PRICE

% TO REACH TARGET

COMMENTARY

Jarden

xx/xx/xxxx

xxxxxxx xx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxxxxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only.
Login above or Get a Free Trial

Goldman Sachs

26/02/2025

Sell

$16.20

-0.61%

Fortescue's 1H25 underlying EBITA was -3% below Goldman Sachs' forecast, and interim dividend of 50c was below 54c forecast but payout of 65% was in-line.

The broker notes the targeted date for ramp-up of the Iron Ore Bridge projection to 22Mtpa by September quarter is under review, but it is already factoring in a slower ramp-up to 10Mtpa by FY27.

The analyst continues to think Fortescue is at an inflection point on capital allocation and assumes a reduction in the dividend payout ratio to 50% from FY26 onwards from the current 65%.

The broker lowered FY25 and FY26 forecasts by -2% and -4% respectively. Target price drops to $16.2 from $16.4, and Sell maintained.

FORECAST
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 96.51 cents and EPS of 160.85 cents.
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 72.00 cents and EPS of 144.00 cents.

Access Extra Coverage Research History >

FMG STOCK CHART

FNArena News on FMG

1	Australian Broker Call Extra Edition – Mar 24, 2025 Mar 24 2025 - Daily Market Reports

2	ESG Focus: Fund Flows, Tariffs, Defence & AI Mar 20 2025 - ESG Focus

3	Australian Broker Call Extra Edition – Feb 26, 2025 Feb 26 2025 - Daily Market Reports

4	Fortescue: Quo Vadis The Dividend? Feb 24 2025 - Commodities

5	FNArena Corporate Results Monitor – 22-02-2025 Feb 22 2025 - Australia

Latest Iron Ore News

1	Fortescue: Quo Vadis The Dividend? Feb 24 2025 - Commodities

2	Fortescue Looks Poised Nov 05 2024 - Technicals

3	Quality Ore Elevates A Champion Oct 10 2024 - ESG Focus

4	The Downs And Ups Of Mineral Resources Sep 19 2024 - Commodities

5	Fortescue Shares Oversold Jul 09 2024 - Technicals

6	Rudi’s View: Copper, Lithium, Retailers & TechnologyOne Jun 27 2024 - Rudi's View

7	Deterra Seeks Growth Through Diversification Jun 18 2024 - Small Caps

8	ESG Focus: The Little Big Things – 15-05-2024 May 15 2024 - ESG Focus

9	Fortescue: Ready To Rally Mar 26 2024 - Technicals

10	ESG Focus: Grid Set To Enter An Iron Age Sep 21 2023 - ESG Focus

Dividend Yield Today On Last Actual Payout :	12.48
Estimated Dividend Growth (Average Of Past Three Years)	%
Amount Invested	$
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FORTESCUE LIMITED (FMG)
Share Price Analysis and Chart