FORTESCUE LIMITED (FMG)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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FMG

FMG - FORTESCUE LIMITED

FNArena Sector : Iron Ore
Year End: June
GICS Industry Group : Materials
Debt/EBITDA: 0.7
Index: ASX20 | ASX50 | ASX100 | ASX200 | ASX300 | ALL-ORDS

Fortescue Metals is an Australian iron ore company with operations in the Pilbara, Western Australia. It is the fourth largest iron ore producer in the world and became a listed company, through a backdoor-listing, in 2003.

LAST PRICE CHANGE +/- CHANGE % VOLUME

$18.80

12 Sep
2025

0.160

OPEN

$18.70

0.86%

HIGH

$18.86

5,010,022

LOW

$18.62

TARGET
$17.993 -4.3% downside
Franking for last dividend paid out: 100%
OTHER COMPANIES IN THE SAME SECTOR
ARI . CIA . DRR . FEX . GEN . GRR . MGX . MIN .
FNARENA'S MARKET CONSENSUS FORECASTS
FMG: 1
Title FY26
Forecast		 FY27
Forecast
EPS (cps) 139.2 xxx
DPS (cps) 91.0 xxx
EPS Growth N/A xxx
DPS Growth N/A xxx
PE Ratio 13.5 xxx
Dividend Yield 4.8% xxx
Div Pay Ratio(%) 65.4% xxx
This company reports in USD.
All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Dividend yield today if purchased 3 years ago: 6.19%

DIVIDEND YIELD CALCULATOR

Dividend Yield Today On Last Actual Payout :

 5.85

Estimated Dividend Growth
(Average Of Past Three Years)

  %

Amount Invested

 $ 

Tell Me The Dividend After This Many Years
Past performance is no guarantee for the future. Investors should take into account that heavy swings in share price or exceptional circumstances (a la 2009) can have a significant impact on short term calculations and averages

Last ex-div: 04/09 - ex-div 89c (franking 100%)

HISTORICAL DATA ARE ALL IN AUD
Copyright © 2025 FactSet UK Limited. All rights reserved
Title 202020212022202320242025
EPS Basic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx169.4
DPS All xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx110.0
Sales/Revenue xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx23,996.7 M
Book Value Per Share xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx991.8
Net Operating Cash Flow xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx9,942.4 M
Net Profit Margin xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx21.70 %

EPS Basic

DPS All

Sales/Revenue

Book Value Per Share

Net Operating Cash Flow

Net Profit Margin

Title 202020212022202320242025
Return on Capital Employed xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx17.43 %
Return on Invested Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx13.79 %
Return on Assets xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx11.07 %
Return on Equity xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx17.43 %
Return on Total Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx20.83 %
Free Cash Flow ex dividends xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx501.8 M

Return on Capital Employed

Return on Invested Capital

Return on Assets

Return on Equity

Return on Total Capital

Free Cash Flow ex dividends

Title 202020212022202320242025
Short-Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx336 M
Long Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx7,964 M
Total Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx8,299 M
Goodwill - Gross xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx298 M
Cash & Equivalents - Generic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6,604 M
Price To Book Value xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1.54

Short-Term Debt

Long Term Debt

Total Debt

Goodwill - Gross

Cash & Equivalents - Generic

Price To Book Value

Title 202020212022202320242025
Capex xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx5,038.4 M
Capex % of Sales xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx21.00 %
Cost of Goods Sold xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx14,553 M
Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,519 M
Research & Development xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx851 M
Investments - Total xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx435 M

Capex

Capex % of Sales

Cost of Goods Sold

Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other

Research & Development

Investments - Total

EXPERT VIEWS
Display All Commentary

Sentiment Indicator

-0.3

No. Of Recommendations

7
BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Morgan Stanley

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxxxxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Ord Minnett

xx/xx/xxxx

2

xxxxxxxxx xx xxxxxxxxxx xxxx xxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Bell Potter

xx/xx/xxxx

5

xxxxxxxxx xx xxxx xxxx xxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Morgans

27/08/2025

4

Downgrade to Trim from Hold

$16.60

-11.70%

On further analysis, Morgans tweaks its EPS estimates for FY26/FY27 and downgrades the stock to Trim from Hold.

Target moves to $16.60 from $16.50.

***

The one comment that stands out from Morgans' early response to Fortescue's FY25 release is: "FMG unfortunately is demonstrating it cannot execute on a magnetite project in its backyard but expects the market to be confident it can deliver capital-intensive global energy innovation with a commercial return – still a bridge too far."

The broker points out energy projects remain an important drag at -US$900m capex/opex guided in FY26, despite little prospect for a meaningful return.

No double guessing, Morgans is not a fan of the company's strategy outside of the iron ore business.

The FY25 itself is labeled "solid", but then the share price valuation is seen as too rich.

FORECAST
Morgans forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 94.60 cents and EPS of 145.78 cents.
Morgans forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 58.93 cents and EPS of 89.95 cents.

Macquarie

xx/xx/xxxx

5

xxxxxxxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Citi

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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UBS

xx/xx/xxxx

5

xxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Access Stockbroker Research History >
EXTRA COVERAGE
Display All Commentary

No. Of Recommendations

1

Please note: unlike Broker Call Report, BC Extra is not updated daily. The info you see might not be the latest. FNArena does its best to update ASAP.

BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Jarden

02/09/2025

4

Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral

$16.00

-14.89%

Jarden downgrades Fortescue to Underweight from Neutral due to the stock's recent outperformance and valuation grounds.

The miner achieved what the analyst considers "operational excellence" in FY25, with record shipments and industry-leading costs. Momentum has been retained into FY26.

The analyst raises capital investment forecasts by 2%-4% for FY27-FY30, with only slight changes to other operating financial forecasts, resulting in an impact on EPS estimates, down -3% for FY26 and -2% for FY27.

Target slips to $16 from $16.25.

FORECAST
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 82.00 cents and EPS of 140.66 cents.
Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 63.59 cents and EPS of 86.38 cents.
Access Extra Coverage Research History >

FMG STOCK CHART

FNArena News on FMG

1
In Case You Missed It – BC Extra Upgrades & Downgrades – 05-09-25

Sep 05 2025 - Weekly Reports
2
Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Sep 03, 2025

Sep 03 2025 - Daily Market Reports
3
Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 29-08-25

Sep 01 2025 - Weekly Reports
4
FNArena Corporate Results Monitor – 27-08-2025

Aug 27 2025 - Australia
5
July In Review: Rotation Into A New All-Time High

Aug 06 2025 - Australia

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