Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday July 21 to Friday July 25, 2025
Total Upgrades: 8
Total Downgrades: 22
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 60.06%; Hold 32.00%; Sell 7.94%
For the week ended Friday, July 25, 2025, FNArena tracked eight upgrades and twenty-two downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.
Average target price increases outpaced declines, while at the upper end of the average earnings forecast tables below downgrades exceeded upgrades. Beyond that point, however, upgrades were more prevalent in percentage terms.
AMP received the largest increase in average target price of nearly 18% and came third on the positive change to average earnings forecast table after reporting its June quarter trading update.
Ord Minnett highlighted the first positive net cash flow for AMP’s superannuation and investments operations since 2017.
An accelerating trend in inflows, the fifth consecutive quarter of net cash inflows for the platforms business, will amplify the uplift to assets under management from favourable market movements, suggested the broker.
Macquarie downgraded its rating for AMP to Neutral from Outperform following a 42% share price rally over the past month.
The broker explained a more constructive view would require a live demonstration of the “best-in-class” North wrap investment platform and a clear articulation of the strategy to achieve the Bank’s return on equity (ROE) target.
AMP remains the preferred stock pick of Morgan Stanley across wealth managers with an attractive valuation and robust flows, including holistic retirement income solutions.
It was also a big week for car retail groups Autosports Group and Peter Warren Automotive with average target price rises of 15% and 12%, respectively, along with material rises in FY25 average earnings forecasts by brokers.
Across A&NZ, Autosports Group specialises in the sale and servicing of prestige and luxury vehicles via 75 retail businesses, including new car dealerships, used car outlets, motorcycle dealerships, and specialised collision repair facilities.
By dealer count, the highest brand exposures are BMW, MINI, Audi and Volvo.
In reviewing its investment case, Macquarie highlighted the potential removal of the luxury car tax could represent significant upside for the group, which remains the most leveraged play on the ASX in this regard.
Management remains focused on inorganic growth, with a strong M&A pipeline and ample capital to pursue future acquisitions, suggested the broker.
Shares in Peter Warren Automotive rose last week after management upgraded FY25 underlying profit guidance. This company operates 80 franchises across 30 brands along Australia’s east coast.
Management now guides to FY25 underlying pre-tax profit of circa $22m, implying a strong second-half result of around $15m, with Morgans noting this is more than double the $7.1m in the first half. Earlier guidance pointed to flat earnings. The uplift was driven by stronger June marketing and improved inventory and cost management.
Morgans believes sector headwinds appear to have bottomed, supporting margin gains in FY26–27, and raised its target to $1.75 from $1.45. Ord Minnett also lifted its target to $1.70 from $1.40. Both maintained Hold ratings, consistent with Morgan Stanley, the third daily monitored broker in the FNArena database.
Along with Peter Warren, AMP, and Autosports, miners Regis Resources and Woodside Energy made up the top five for positive changes to average earnings forecasts last week.
Regis delivered solid FY25 results, UBS commented, with June quarter production of 87.4koz bringing the full-year total to 373koz, the top end of guidance. Costs (AISC) at $2,531/oz were also below the guided range midpoint.
With a robust cash and bullion position of $517m as of June 2025, no debt, and absent a breakthrough on the McPhillamys project, Regis remains a frequent subject of M&A speculation.
An ongoing lack of material organic growth options and lingering questions around capital returns continue to fuel this narrative, explained the broker, which upgraded its rating to Neutral from Sell.
Less enthused, Citi downgraded to Sell from Neutral on valuation grounds, based on its below-consensus gold price assumptions. The stock has outperformed the Gold Index by approximately 20% year-to-date, but upcoming index rebalancing in the September quarter presents a potential headwind, suggested Citi analysts.
For Woodside Energy, second quarter production exceeded Macquarie's expectation, driven by a strong performance from the Sangomar offshore oil field in Senegal, which operated above nameplate. Revenue of US$3.3bn beat consensus by 10%.
Updated 2025 guidance also points to lower unit costs and UBS now sees potential consensus EPS upgrades of around 6% for the first half of FY25.
Ord Minnett sharply upgraded its EPS forecasts, by 67% for 2025, 75.5% for 2026, and 30.5% for 2027, bringing estimates broadly in line with consensus. The broker’s forecast 2025 dividend was also raised by 67%.
Ord Minnett downgraded its rating to Hold from Buy on valuation grounds, maintaining a $25.00 target price following an around 15% rally in the share price since early June.
Bapcor had a horror week after management lowered profit guidance, as well as flagging -$48–50m in significant items and a -$24m overstatement in past profits, alongside the immediate resignation of three Board members.
The company’s average target price declined by -32% to $3.85, and the share price tanked to $3.72 from $5.11.
Analysts at Morgans saw limited positives in the market update, citing deeper-than-expected disruptions in Specialist Wholesale, softening momentum in the Trade segment, and ongoing weakness in both Retail and New Zealand operations.
The broker flagged elevated execution risk given the group’s scale and complexity, noting recent operational deterioration has eroded its confidence in near-term earnings.
Morgans downgraded its rating to Hold from Accumulate.
Macquarie downgraded to Neutral from Outperform, noting Retail remains under pressure, with FY25 revenue down -3.5%, impacted by weaker discretionary spending, increased competition, and changes to promotional strategies.
In terms of negative change to FY25 average earnings forecasts, here Paladin Energy and Lynas Rare Earths fared worse than the -11% fall for Bapcor, with respective declines of -45% and -21%.
Citi observed the sell-off in Paladin Energy's shares on the back of what is viewed as a "solid" June quarter report, due to weaker realised prices and disappointing FY26 guidance.
The lower realised price was attributed to timing and mix of contract deliveries, which is not considered a structural problem for the uranium miner.
While also noting weaker realised pricing, the analyst at Macquarie highlighted fourth quarter production at the Langer Heinrich uranium mine beat forecasts by the broker and consensus, making FY26 guidance of between 4.0-4.4mlb look conservative.
Paladin continues to blend stockpiles during the Langer Heinrich mine ramp-up, noted UBS, which management suggested is clouding the picture.
While the average FY25 earnings forecast for Lynas Rare Earths fell, the percentage move was exaggerated by relatively small numbers involved. The FY26 average remained steady after brokers generally approved of June quarter operational results.
In the June 2025 quarter, management achieved an average rare earth oxide (REO) price of $60.2/kg, the highest since June 2022, surpassing Morgan Stanley’s forecast by 7.1% and the broader consensus by 6.7%.
According to the broker, the stronger pricing was driven by new supply chains and pricing agreements decoupled from the market index. Although sales volumes were -5.7% below Morgan Stanley’s expectation, the uplift in pricing helped offset the shortfall, with revenue exceeding consensus estimates by 9.5%.
Brokers also lowered the average earnings forecast for Iluka Resources by -8%.
Despite solid second quarter production for Iluka, sales and revenue missed expectations and mineral sands pricing remains uncertain. By contrast, the outlook for rare earths looks promising. Later today, FNArena will publish a separate story following the miner's quarterly update.
Shares in Pantoro Gold (market cap $1.46bn) closed at $3.72 last Friday having hit three-year highs during the week after strong fourth quarter production from the Norseman Gold project, prompting Bell Potter to upgrade its rating to Hold from Sell.
Ord Minnett also upgraded to Buy from Speculative Buy noting a strong FY26 guidance outlook is benefiting from higher grades at the project as the Scotia underground mine ramps up.
Total Buy ratings in the database comprise 60.06% of the total, versus 32.00% on Neutral/Hold, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 7.94%.
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