Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday August 4 to Friday August 8, 2025
Total Upgrades: 4
Total Downgrades: 8
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 59.57%; Hold 32.29%; Sell 8.13%
For the week ended Friday, August 8, 2025, FNArena tracked four upgrades and eight downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.
Early reporting season results began drifting in, with ‘beats’ for News Corp and Credit Corp. The Real Estate sector received a 2.8% boost last week, aided by better-than-expected results for Centuria Industrial REIT and Charter Hall Long WALE REIT.
On the other hand, Light & Wonder disappointed against market expectations, along with miners Rio Tinto and Beach Energy.
As usual, FNArena will be keeping tabs on all the beats, misses, and in-line results, accompanied by broker explanations, via the Corporate Results Monitor https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/08/08/fnarena-corporate-results-monitor-08-08-2025/
Infomedia was downgraded to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter and Shaw and Partners after management entered into a Scheme Implementation Agreement with TPG (private equity) to acquire it for $1.72 per share, adjusted for permitted fully franked dividends totaling up to 4.9c.
These include a 2c final and a 2.9c special dividend, which Bell Potter explained could deliver up to 2.1c in franking credits to eligible shareholders.
The cash offer values the company at $579m, with a break fee of -$6.5m and expected completion by late November 2025.
While the certainty of the offer is appealing in an uncertain environment, Shaw highlighted Infomedia’s implied valuation is below its historical average and prior M&A offers.
The largest percentage increase in average target price last week went to Austal, following a lift in FY25 earnings guidance and finalisation of the Strategic Shipbuilding Agreement (SSA) with the Commonwealth of Australia.
Shares in Austal, which designs, builds, and maintains commercial ferries and naval vessels, have risen around 35% since the beginning of May, joining in a sector wide rally for defence-related stocks.
A rising global spend on defence and recent contract wins have spurred growing investor interest in the space, as explained further at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/08/08/behind-the-rally-in-asx-defence-stocks/
COG Financial Services is next, with a near 11% increase in average target price after Ord Minnett upgraded its valuation to reflect the sale of non-core holdings in EarlyPay ((EPY)) and Centrepoint Alliance.
The analyst believes net proceeds of around $26m will further strengthen management’s ability to invest in the growth areas of novated leasing, asset finance brokerage, and insurance broking.
Several avenues for earnings growth identified by the broker include higher novated leasing penetration rates from existing contracts, expansion of complementary insurance brokerage services, and a larger market share in the asset finance brokerage sector.
On the flipside, Beach Energy’s average target fell by around -10% and the stock appears fourth on the table for negative change to average earnings forecasts having released an underwhelming financial report (see Corporate Results Monitor).
Pilbara Minerals, Capstone Copper, and IDP Education appear above Beach Energy on the earnings downgrade table, with respective falls in average FY25 forecasts of around -23%, -16%, and -13%.
Despite a strong operational performance in the fourth quarter, Ord Minnett significantly downgraded its earnings forecasts for Pilbara Minerals across FY25–27.
The broker’s revisions were due to higher depreciation and amortisation, expected losses from the POSCO joint venture in the second half of FY25, and increased expenditure on the newly acquired Colina project, which is being expensed rather than capitalised.
Ord Minnett views the recent price rally for lithium shares as sentiment-driven and not indicative of a sustained recovery.
Capstone Copper’s June quarter net profit missed Macquarie’s forecast by -27% as a lower depreciation rate was previously assumed. More positively, group copper production was in line with the consensus estimate, and cash costs were a 3% beat.
Citi also noted both plants in Chile are exceeding design throughput rates, but Mantoverde’s copper-gold recoveries were negatively impacted by transitional ore, and Pinto Valley (copper-molybdenum) was constrained by drought conditions.
While UBS lowered its earnings forecasts for IDP Education, the analysts also noted a positive recent announcement by the Australian Government regarding plans for international education in 2026.
Positives include a 9% increase in student enrolment caps, and increases for the education and vocational education and training (VET) sectors of 12% and 3%, respectively. Public universities can apply for an additional increase to their individual enrolment caps starting this October.
The government’s commitment to growing international education and enhancing student sentiment will benefit institutions, noted the broker, with a particular focus on Southeast Asia and student accommodation.
When it comes to rises in average earnings forecasts, the impact of FY25 financial results can be observed in the table below. While increases in these forecasts generally outweigh the declines, we're no longer comparing apples with apples, as some of the upward revisions stem from brokers rolling forward their financial models to higher FY26 forecasts (companies having released FY25 financials).
Putting aside News Corp, REA Group, Pinnacle Investment Management and ResMed (as they are covered in the Corporate Results Monitor), Nickel Mines and Meteoric Resources registered the two largest positive changes.
Nickel Mines’ second quarter operational result was broadly in line with Citi’s expectations. The key variance was in cash conversion, with management highlighting a build in working capital.
Citi has revised its timelines, pushing back the Eastern Nickel Corporation High-Pressure Acid Leach (HPAL) project, by approximately four months to the first half of 2026, as Nickel Mines awaits the necessary license to sell nickel.
Management prefers not to build inventory or deploy working capital prematurely, meaning construction and commissioning will be timed to match the approval and license process.
Also, the broker defers its operational start expectation for the Sampala project by around four months to the second half of 2026. Over 1,100 drill holes have been completed, and essential infrastructure (haul road, bridge, accommodation) is under construction.
Meteoric Resources’ June quarter result showcased a series of key achievements, noted Ord Minnett, with the standout being the expansion of Caldeira’s mineral resource to 1.5bn tonnes.
Additionally, the company executed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with ASX-listed MTM Critical Minerals (now rebranded Metallium) ((MTM)) to explore Flash Joule Heating (FJH) to enhance the enhance the mixed rare earth oxide (MREO) content of its mixed rare earth concentrate (MREC).
Following the quarter-end, Meteoric launched a large, oversubscribed $42.5m capital raise.
Total Buy ratings in the database comprise 59.57% of the total, versus 32.29% on Neutral/Hold, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 8.13%.
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