Weekly Reports | 10:30 AM
A summary of the highlights from Broker Call Extra updates throughout the week past.
Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
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ACCENT GROUP LIMITED ((AX1)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Petra Capital.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Petra Capital notes Accent Group delivered an in-line FY25 result and FY26 is shaping up better with sales momentum turning positive, Sports Direct rollout visibility, and consensus expectations reset lower.
FY25 underlying EBIT was in line with the June trading update. FY26 EBIT is guided to high single-digit growth, which the broker translates to EBIT of $118m vs $110.2m in FY25.
Trading in first 7 weeks for FY26 was positive, driven by return to growth in lifestyle footwear, and wholesale trends signalling stronger demand ahead.
The broker lifted FY26 EBIT forecast to align with the guidance and increased EPS forecast by 11.9%.
Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold. Target rises to $1.65 from $1.45 (was $2.28 on Feb 26).
HUB24 LIMITED ((HUB)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden highlights Hub24's FY25 EPS of 117.8c beat consensus and its forecast by 4.4% due mainly to lower effective tax rate. Underlying EBITDA, however, missed both on softer revenues.
Revenue margins compressed more than expected, though there was some offset from lower cost growth vs revenue growth.
Update on FUA until Aug 14 was higher than expected, prompting the broker to upgrade flow estimates for FY26. Guidance for FY27 FUA was below the broker's forecast and the consensus, but the broker sees it as conservative.
Target lifted to $97.00 from $84.50 reflecting earnings changes, higher multiples and higher outer year gearing assumption. Rating upgraded to Neutral from Underweight.
MEGAPORT LIMITED ((MP1)) Upgrade to Buy from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
The highlight of Megaport's FY25 result for Jarden was the reacceleration in annual recurring revenue which was in line with its forecast but beat consensus by 2.1%.
The broker notes this is rare among the company's software/network as a service peers. Net revenue retention was steady at 107%, supportive of future growth.
FY26 revenue guidance of $260-270m is 4.2% above consensus at midpoint, though the EBITDA implied in the margin was -19% below consensus of $69.5m. The company is increasing headcount, suggesting accelerating product build-out.
The broker upgraded FY26 revenue forecast by 3.8% and FY27 by 8.6% but cut underlying EBITDA forecasts on higher opex.
Target lifted to $16.77 from $10.67 on roll-forward and increare in terminal value growth rate. Rating upgraded to Buy from Overweight.
NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED ((NWL)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden raises its target for Netwealth Group to $34.60 from $29.90 and upgrades to Neutral from Underweight following FY25 results.
The group reported FY25 profit of $116.5m, a slight miss compared to forecasts by the broker and consensus due to higher cost growth. Revenues were broadly in line with stronger contributions from management and ancillary fees.
Costs rose/deteriorated -8% in 2H25 against guidance of -5%, with spend directed toward growth initiatives, explain the analysts.
A key negative feature in the broker's view, was new quantitative guidance for FY26 net flows, set around -$1bn below consensus.
The analysts feel this projection is conservative given the company’s growth track record, intact operational drivers and year-to-date flows implying stronger momentum.
PETER WARREN AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS LIMITED ((PWR)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Moelis and Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Following FY25 results by Peter Warren Automotive, Moelis raises its target to $2.38 from $1.85 and upgrades to Buy from Hold.
Profit before tax fell -61% to $22.3m, impacted by weak 1H25 trading, oversupply of BEVs and stronger OEM competition, explains the broker.
However, the analyst points to improving 2H25 margins via cost-outs and better inventory management.
The company reported FY25 revenue of $2.48bn, broadly flat year-on-year, with gross margins down to 16.1% from 16.9%.
Operating costs fell by -$6.4m, with further savings expected in FY26. Inventory days improved to 59 from 61, net debt reduced to $47m, and operating cash flow was $68.2m.
No quantified guidance was provided, though management expects earnings growth in FY26. Stronger order writes, cost reductions and stabilising gross margins drive the broker's EPS upgrades of 23-33% over FY26-FY28.
A final dividend of 4c took the FY25 payout to 5.6c, down -61%.
Peter Warren Automotive's FY25 result highlighted the company is on the right track to recovery, with margins improving on inventory and cost saving initiatives, and interest rate offering tailwinds.
Underlying profit before tax (PBT) was pre-reported, and 2H25 gross margin of 16.1% was 10bps higher than Jarden and consensus.
The broker sees the company as a late-stage beneficiary of lower interest rates, and believes its 1.2% FY26 pre-tax profit growth forecast is conservative.
FY26 EPS forecast upgraded by 33% and FY27 by 17% driven by gross profit margin upgrades, lower operating expenses and lower net interest expense, partly offset by -1% revenue downgrades.
Target lifted to $2.30 from $1.45. Rating upgraded to Buy from Neutral.
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ASPEN GROUP LIMITED ((APZ)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Aspen Group delivered FY25 underlying EPS of 16.8c, slightly ahead of guidance, notes Moelis, and up 22% year-on-year. FY26 guidance indicates to the broker EPS of 19c, up 13%, and a dividend of 11c.
The broker highlights strong operating results across all divisions. Residential rents rose 3% with margins at a record 66%, parks revenue grew 6%, and development achieved 111 settlements with house prices up 11%.
The net asset value (NAV) rose to $2.54 per share after a 5% property revaluation uplift, explains the analyst.
Gearing fell to 13% after a $68m equity raise, with the broker noting capacity to redeploy capital into new projects.
Moelis raises its target price to $4.43 from $3.83 and downgrades to Hold from Buy. Shares now trade at an around 40% premium to the broker's assessment for the true value of assets.
BRAMBLES LIMITED ((BXB)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
While Brambles delivered well in FY25, Jarden points out fundamentals softened through 2H25, particularly with US Pallets showing negative pricing and weaker like-for-like volumes in 4Q25.
CHEP EMEA held up better on price, though volumes also deteriorated, observe the analysts.
FY26 constant FX revenue guidance of 3-5% and EBIT growth of 8-11% implies to the broker a heavy 2H skew, with reliance on cost-out to deliver operating leverage as volume and pricing headwinds emerge.
The broker's concerns also include reduced buybacks, the sustainability of cost reductions, and signs that earnings leverage is shifting to lower-quality drivers.
Jarden raises its target to $22.10 from $21.65 and downgrades to Sell from Neutral given the source of operating leverage is now largely cost reduction, as the stock reaches all-time highs.
CENTURIA CAPITAL GROUP ((CNI)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Centuria Capital's FY25 operating EPS was in line with expectation but the FY26 guidance beat the consensus by 4% and was up 10% vs FY25.
Operating EBITDA rose to $173m in FY25 from $161m in FY24, despite being negatively impacted by -$4.3m loss from data centre segment, though this is expected to turn profitable in FY26.
Performance fees lagged but are expected to recover via released performance fees in the next few years as valuations grow.
The broker lifted FY26 net profit forecast by 4.7% and FY27 by 9.2%. Target lifted to $2.45 from $1.95. Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy.
INGHAMS GROUP LIMITED ((ING)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden downgrades Inghams Group to Neutral from Overweight and cuts the 12-month target price to $2.90 from $3.70 after a weak FY25 and a softer FY26 set-up.
FY25 disappointed with 2H EBITDA circa -8% below consensus as Q4 slowed on industry over-supply, customers down-trading and inventory clearance; pressures likely persist into 1H26, guidance implies a heavy 2H26 skew, and a $60–80m cost-out programme is underway.
Forecasts change: FY26 EBITDA (pre-AASB 16) is cut circa -15% to $218.5m (within $215–230m guidance) with top-line trimmed -5% across three years; EPS now 17.1c/23.8c/25.8c for 2026-28.
The broker sees a well-run business but near-term risks from competition and a rival’s FY26/27 expansion, seeking improving pricing and clarity on Baida-related volumes before turning more positive.
IPH LIMITED ((IPH)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Canaccord Genuity notes IPH Ltd's FY25 underlying group EBITDA was in line with its forecast but a modest miss to consensus. Full-year dividend met expectations.
However, the outlook is not so positive with ongoing Australia/NZ patent filing share decline falling below 30% in FY25 and US filings remain weak.
The broker reckons competitive pressures are rising across Australia/NZ and Asia. FY26 EBITDA estimates trimmed by -5% to $216.9m and EPS forecast lowered by -6%.
Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target trimmed to $4.95 from $5.75.
SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED ((SUL)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Super Retail's FY25 EBIT beat expectations by 6%, driven by a 14% beat in 2H25 following material improvement in 4Q.
Jarden notes the outperformance was driven by sales growth in Rebel and Supercheap Auto, gross margin improvement via targeted promotion and reduced marketing spend by using loyalty.
The company is guiding to flat margin growth in FY26 but the broker is optimistic, factoring in 20bps expansion, on improved sales trends. FY26-28 net profit forecasts lifted by around 8%.
Target rises to $18.00 from $14.80. Rating downgraded to Neutral from Overweight.
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