Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday September 15 to Friday September 19, 2025
Total Upgrades: 10
Total Downgrades: 14
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 59.03%; Hold 32.13%; Sell 8.85%
For the week ending Friday, September 19, 2025, FNArena tracked ten upgrades and fourteen downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.
The size of percentage rises in average target prices outweighed reductions for the fourth week in a row, with Pantoro Gold and Vault Minerals leading the way with rises of circa 9% and 8%, respectively.
Analysts at Morgans initiated coverage on Pantoro which runs the Norseman project in Western Australia, a historic gold field which has already produced more than 5.5m ounces since the 1930s.
Morgans initiated with a Hold rating and a $5.33 target, slightly above the prior $5.20 average of the two brokers already covering the stock in the FNArena database.
Right now, Pantoro is producing at an annualised rate of over 100koz, and the analysts see plenty of upside in both grades and resource growth. They model production rising to around 145koz by FY28, with further gains possible if grades improve.
Norseman is cashflow positive, highlights the broker, backed by strong infrastructure, and management has now cleared debt and consolidated ownership. With average earnings margins above 50% and forecast earnings of about $267m a year over the next eight years, the project looks robust, in Morgans’ view.
The average target for Vault Minerals benefited from higher gold price forecasts at UBS.
With the US Federal Reserve cutting rates, this broker has raised its short to medium-term gold forecasts by 9-12% across FY26-28 to respectively US$3,825, US$3,650 and US$3,350 an ounce, peaking at US$3,900 in the third quarter of FY26. The longer-term estimate stays at US$2,800.
These upgrades feed through to stronger earnings forecasts for gold stocks under coverage by UBS, with forecasts for FY26 and FY27 rising 18-29% and price targets lifting by 6-25%.
The best opportunities are seen among mid-cap growth names with the broker highlighting Genesis Minerals, Perseus Mining, and Vault Minerals.
In a wider look at Australian Resources, UBS also noted the trade war and broader macro risks it worried about in the second quarter of 2025 haven’t played out. In fact, since the broker’s last sector review, the outlook has improved, helped by steadier fundamentals and signs of more M&A activity.
UBS now thinks these factors, together with a better macro backdrop, should keep driving investors back into the mining sector.
Looking out over the year ahead, the broker stays constructive on commodities, pointing to supportive supply trends and long-term demand drivers, especially in copper and aluminium.
While gold still looks good and price forecasts are on the rise, the broker is a little less bullish than at the start of 2025.
Coal and nickel don’t show much downside, but markets aren’t tight in the short-term either, while lithium’s outlook is supportive overall but highly dependent on how China manages supply, explains the broker.
For iron ore, supply could still weigh on the market, but UBS thinks prices around US$100/tonne can hold over the next 6-12 months.
As a result of updated projections and pricing forecasts, the positive change to earnings table below is populated in descending order by Mineral Resources, Boss Energy, Talga Group (graphite), Chalice Mining, South32, and Fortescue, followed by Vault minerals in tenth place due to the broker’s separate gold sector report.
IGO Ltd also appears in this table. The company’s shares have fallen -19% over the past month and now trade below Citi’s $4.40 target, down from $4.50, leading this broker to upgrade its rating to Neutral from Sell.
Uncertainties remain, with the analysts pointing to IGO’s downstream lithium hydroxide Kwinana refinery in Western Australia, where the company’s share of losses has topped -$400m.
Spending at the jointly owned Greenbushes hard-rock lithium mine is also a cause of concern, after first-half 2025 cash flow came in at around -$100m following -$360m in capital expenditure.
Management’s guidance for FY26 capital expenditure of -$575-675m also leaves limited visibility beyond FY27, the broker comments.
Citi continues to favour Pilbara Minerals as its main lithium exposure.
Morgan Stanley also weighed in with updated research on IGO last week. The analysts remain cautious on acquisition risks, particularly with the 100%-owned nickel-copper-cobalt Nova operation approaching its end-of-life in 2026, and the group’s minority position in Greenbushes limiting control.
Turning to the negative, here Audinate Group received the largest fall in average target (-22%), followed by Santos with an around -8% reset.
Morgan Stanley conceded it had previously misread the cycle for Audinate and says the company now must prove itself with tangible results before the market re-rates the stock.
While long-term appeal was noted, FY26 is expected to be tough with higher costs, peak cash burn, and few obvious catalysts. The broker’s target price was slashed to $5 from $11 and the rating downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight.
In one of the biggest news stories on the exchange last week, management at Santos announced the XRG consortium had withdrawn its bid for the company citing "commercial factors".
Morgans suggested the withdrawal had damaged the case for a corporate premium and created near-term selling pressure as arbitrage investors exit. The broker’s target was reduced to $7.20 from $8.65 and the rating downgraded to Trim from Accumulate.
Ord Minnett also lowered its target to $8.35 from $8.89, though its rating was upgraded to Buy from Accumulate.
Santos will pay an attractive 2025 dividend, expected to increase even further across 2027-30 as new production commences and free cash flow builds, explained the analyst. The stock is also considered undervalued on earnings multiples.
Across the tables below, average broker forecast upgrades outweigh downgrades.
While Pilbara Minerals and SiteMinder received the largest downgrades, the percentage changes were exaggerated by the tiny numbers involved.
Reacting to industry feedback on SiteMinder, Ord Minnett noted Channels-Plus still has potential to disrupt the hotel distribution chain, though adoption may take longer than first expected given the complexity of hotel yield management.
Consequently, the broker trimmed its near-term free cash forecasts but lifted medium and long-term expectations.
More positively, Citi suggested the recent UltraSync launch is a key positive, closing a major data gap and strengthening Dynamic Revenue Plus. This product is seen as reinforcing SiteMinder’s role as a central hub for hoteliers.
Telix Pharmaceuticals’ average earnings forecast also fell, but solely because Citi initiated coverage with lower EPS forecasts than the average of three existing brokers in the FNArena database.
Citi began with a Buy, High Risk rating and a $34 target, calling Telix one of its top healthcare picks alongside ResMed and CSL.
With the stock down -54% from February highs, the broker argued the market is only valuing Illuccix (the diagnostic imaging agent for prostate cancer) even though it sees diagnostics worth $25 a share and the drug pipeline adding another $10.
The company’s next-generation prostate cancer imaging agent Gozellix is expected to help offset pricing pressure and expand into frontline diagnosis. The therapeutic program, aimed at treating advanced prostate cancer, TLX591, is also flagged as the key potential blockbuster with phase 3 data due in the second half.
New Hope shares fell last week after releasing FY25 results with FY26 guidance pointing to weaker coal output in FY26.
Macquarie cut its FY26 production forecast by -8%, trimming earnings by -2%, though the FY27 earnings estimate was raised 6% on unchanged production. The analyst’s target was lowered to $3.80 from $4.00, and the rating downgraded to Underperform from Neutral.
While the analysts cut their FY26-28 New Ackland (thermal coal) production forecast as rail constraints across the West Moreton and Brisbane network are expected to persist, the broker’s cost forecast was lowered after FY25 group unit costs fell -8% year-on-year.
Total Buy ratings in the database comprises 59.03% of the total, versus 32.13% on Neutral/Hold, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 8.85%.
Upgrade
DALRYMPLE BAY INFRASTRUCTURE LIMITED ((DBI)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/0/0
Morgans upgraded Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure to Accumulate from Hold following recent share price weakness.
The fall was triggered by the full exit of IPO foundation shareholder Brookfield with the sale of the remaining 26% stake at $4.05/sh. The broker doesn't see the exit as impacting the business fundamentals.
The stock will enter the S&P/ASX200 index from September 22, the broker reminds.
Next known catalyst is the outcome of the capital allocation review expected in February 2026, along with FY25 results.
No change to forecasts. Target unchanged at $4.73.
EBOS GROUP LIMITED ((EBO)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 4/1/0
Citi has transferred coverage of Ebos Group to new analyst Laura Sutcliffe.
The broker notes FY25 margins were slightly below its previous estimates, but the company is moving from a derating story to a fairly valued stabilisation play.
The broker sees upside from Animal Care, which provides 5% of revenue but four times EBITDA margins vs the rest of the business. However, this is too small to shift the group profile meaningfully yet.
Core EBITDA forecast for FY26 is towards the top end of the company's guidance.
Target cut to $28 from $32. Rating upgraded to Neutral from Sell.
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