Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday October 13 to Friday October 17, 2025
Total Upgrades: 13
Total Downgrades: 11
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 59.66%; Hold 31.55%; Sell 8.79%
For the week ending Friday, October 17, 2025, FNArena tracked thirteen upgrades and eleven downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.
Average target price increases outpaced cuts, a trend that has been in place since early July, a period of 15 consecutive weeks.
On a number of occasions, these rises have been due to brokers upgrading commodity price forecasts, but a surprising number of target price increases have related to stocks within the Industrial sector due to stronger earnings forecasts or other triggering events.
Returning to last week, here average targets in the table below show seven of the ten rises relate to ASX Resources stocks, supported by higher commodity price forecasts by UBS or Ord Minnett (or both).
Despite this dominance, Industrial exposures SRG Global and Catapult Sports featured most prominently with increases in average targets of 48% and 26%, respectively, due to M&A activity.
The four daily covered brokers in the FNArena database which research SRG Global all ventured opinions on the acquisition of Total Tams Pty Ltd for -$85m, an end-to-end diversified marine infrastructure services partner with a 25-year history.
The deal will be funded via $45m in debt, $28m in SRG Global shares (issued at $1.99 and subject to a two-year escrow), and $12m in cash.
Morgans considered the transaction strategically aligned and highly accretive, estimating FY26 earnings of $35m from Total Tams, while Shaw and Partners forecasts the acquisition will add roughly 25% to EPS for SRG and free access to larger contracts.
SRG deserves a premium valuation, suggested Ord Minnett, citing its strong strategic positioning, solid earnings growth outlook, and capacity for further value-accretive acquisitions.
Catapult Sports announced the acquisition of proprietary soccer analytics software company Impect for up to -US$91m, including upfront cash of -US$46m and the remainder deferred and contingent over four years.
A fully underwritten institutional placement of US$84m, with a share purchase plan aiming to raise US$13m, will assist with funding.
Impect, while small, is expanding rapidly, noted Morgan Stanley, with average contract value growing at a 68% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from July 2023 to July 2025.
UBS updated its forecasts, bringing forward the expected timing of Catapult’s first profit to FY27, while Bell Potter observed Catapult’s simultaneous trading update showed preliminary first-half FY26 results broadly in line with expectations. FY26 guidance was also reaffirmed.
Specialist alternative investment manager Regal Partners’ average target also rose by around 13% last week, after issuing a September quarter funds under management (FUM) and performance fee update.
Regal manages about $17.70bn in funds across hedge funds, private markets, real and natural assets (such as water rights), along with credit and royalties.
Boutique managers in the stable include Regal Funds Management, PM Capital, Merricks Capital, Taurus Funds Management, Attunga Capital, Kilter Rural, Argyle Group, Ark Capital Partners, and VGI Partners.
FUM rose by 13% to $20bn, driven by outperformance across small-caps and resource strategies.
Morgans called the update “exceptionally strong,” with hedge fund strategies up 17% and performance fees well above the broker’s expectation. Bell Potter noted it was the strongest update since the VGI Partners merger (completed in June 2022), highlighting 85% of FUM is near fee-earning levels.
Ord Minnett described a “standout” performance, materially outperforming expectations across all key metrics including FUM, net inflows and performance fee accruals. Performance fees for the second half of FY25 are now expected to reach $70m, well above the consensus estimate for between $22-52m.
Staying with the Industrial sector and moving to average earnings forecasts, the tables below show brokers delivered an around 13% boost (on small forecast numbers) for Telix Pharmaceuticals but sliced around -11% from Treasury Wine Estates (post yet another profit warning).
Citi’s forecasts for Telix Pharmaceuticals’ prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) revenue were rendered conservative after the company’s strong third quarter and upgraded FY25 sales guidance.
The company’s radiopharmaceutical products are Illuccix, used for imaging prostate cancer via PSMA PET scans, and Gozellix, which targets kidney cancer.
Management reported sales of US$206m, with PSMA revenue 2% above Citi’s estimate. Revenue grew 1% quarter-on-quarter and 17% year-on-year, with 3% dose volume growth, suggesting to UBS ongoing Illuccix uptake.
Full-year 2025 revenue guidance was lifted to US$800-820m from US$770-800m, reflecting inclusion of Gozellix sales.
According to Ord Minnett, the granting of full TPT for Gozellix will support revenue growth in the PSMA PET business in the December quarter.
Following Treasury Wine Estate’s first quarter trading update, the stock traded down just over -15%.
Overall, Chinese demand is weakening, and the Californian distributor transition has evolved into a bigger-than-expected inventory headache.
Management withdrew earnings guidance for the current fiscal year and the next, as well as putting a $200m share buyback on hold.
Both Morgans and UBS downgraded their ratings to Hold (or equivalent) from Buy. For further broker views see https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/10/15/enthusiasm-for-treasury-wine-runs-dry/
Higher commodity price forecasts by Ord Minnett and UBS resulted in many stock beneficiaries with materially higher average earnings forecasts or targets, or both, as can be seen in the tables below.
Higher copper price forecasts benefited averages for Aeris Resources, AIC Mines, and Sandfire Resources, while gold price estimates lifted averages for Vault Minerals, Pantoro Gold, Genesis Minerals, Evolution Mining, and Ramelius Resources (among others).
It should be noted Evolution Mining, Genesis Minerals, and AIC Mines also released September quarter operational results. In all cases, management maintained FY26 production guidance.
Ord Minnett marked its forecasts to market for the September quarter, noting higher gold prices, modest gains across base metals, and mixed movements elsewhere.
The broker lifted its 2026 gold price estimate by 5%, resulting in higher target prices for key gold producers.
Across UBS’s ASX gold coverage, equities imply gold prices between US$2,900/oz and US$3,675/oz, compared with the current spot price of around US$4,100/oz. The broker’s new long-term assumption is US$3,250/oz; an increase of US$450/oz.
This broker kept its Overweight stance on the ASX gold mining sector, noting a compelling case for investors to increase gold allocation amid ongoing tariff uncertainty, weaker growth, higher inflation, and persistent geopolitical risk.
On average, target prices for gold stocks under coverage by UBS rose by 20-35%.
Average broker earnings forecasts fell materially for miners 29Metals and Stanmore Resources.
Macquarie described 29Metals’ September quarter as disappointing, citing in-line copper production but sharply weaker zinc, gold, and silver output after another seismic event at Golden Grove.
Management has reduced 2025 zinc, gold, and silver guidance by -42%, -22% and -9%, respectively for the remainder of 2025.
Ord Minnett now expects -$60m less free cash flow and trimmed its earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by -20% and -30%, respectively.
Regarding Stanmore Resources, here Ord Minnett noted metallurgical coal pricing remains weak, though futures point to a potential recovery.
The company produces almost exclusively premium metallurgical coal, primarily hard coking coal and PCI coal, across its three operational hubs in Queensland’s Bowen Basin.
September quarter output from Stanmore Resources is expected to rise 13% quarter-on-quarter due to improved conditions at South Walker Creek in the Bowen Basin, with higher sales volumes forecast to lift cash by about US$13m from June 30.
Regarding the ‘hot’ topic of the week, Morgan Stanley observed China is expanding export controls to cover most medium and heavy rare earth elements, as well as selected production and processing equipment.
Despite a neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) focus by Lynas Rare Earths, it’s felt Lynas Rare Earths may benefit as it is well placed to build a US magnet manufacturing presence via its memorandum of understanding with Noveon Magnetics.
Last week, Macquarie also raised its long-term NdPr price forecast to US$110/kg (real) from US$95/kg, suggesting the price floor set between US-based MP Materials and the US Department of Defence will act as a future benchmark.
Ahead of the company’s September quarterly report, Ord Minnett expects Lynas Rare Earths to report production of 2,100t NdPr.
This broker will be looking for commentary on rare earth oxide (REO) demand and pricing trends, plus updates on the company's -$750m capital deployment plans.
Total Buy ratings in the database comprises 59.66% of the total, versus 31.55% on Neutral/Hold, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 8.79%.
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