Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 24-10-25

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This story features 29METALS LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: 29M
The company is included in ALL-ORDS

Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.

By Mark Woodruff

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday October 20 to Friday October 24, 2025
Total Upgrades: 13
Total Downgrades: 12
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 60.00%; Hold 31.42%; Sell 8.58%

For the week ending Friday, October 24, 2025, FNArena tracked thirteen upgrades and twelve downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.

Average target price increases outpaced cuts for the sixteenth consecutive week, while rises in average forecasts by analysts exceeded falls, aided by increases in commodity price forecasts.

Within the Industrials sector, Qoria’s average target price rose by around 23% following a strong first quarter update, along with an upgrade to FY26 revenue guidance.

Qoria provides child online safety, parental control, and school digital-safety solutions through a suite of integrated technologies under brands such as Linewize, Smoothwall, Qustodio, and NetRef.

Total annual recurring revenue (ARR) rose 24% year-on-year in the first quarter to $149m, supported by strong growth in the Qustodio segment as targeted marketing initiatives delivered results, Ord Minnett explained.

Free cash flow of $11.5m exceeded the broker’s $10.3m estimate, driven by stronger cash receipts and lower interest payments.

Management raised FY26 revenue guidance to above $145m from above $140m, modestly ahead of the $144m consensus forecast. All other guidance metrics including ARR growth, EBITDA margin, and free cash flow remain unchanged.

Qoria also indicated net debt should remain flat in FY26 relative to FY25, before reducing materially in FY27 and beyond.

Bell Potter continues to see ‘Value’ with the stock trading on an FY26 EV/Revenue multiple of around 8x, representing a reasonable discount to Catapult Sports at roughly 10x and Life360 at about 12x.

The tables below show automotive aftermarket parts, accessories, equipment, and service provider Bapcor suffered the largest fall in average target price (-26%) and the second largest fall in average earnings forecast by brokers last week.

The company’s first quarter trading update included a decline in sales revenue of -2.7%, with management pointing to a first-half net profit of between $14-16m, well below analysts’ estimates.

FY26 underlying profit is now guided to $51-61m, some -35% lower than Ord Minnett’s prior forecast.

Bapcor continued to lose market share in Trade, explained the broker, while Networks generated earnings growth and regained lost customers from FY25. In Retail, Ord Minnett observed Autobarn continues to be challenged against a weak macro backdrop of soft discretionary spending and increased competition.

For several reasons, Citi found it difficult to turn more positive on the stock.

Management’s plan to retain the Executive Chairman for two to three years, citing execution benefits, continues to raise governance concerns that weigh on investor sentiment, suggested this broker.

Citi also highlighted persistent operational issues from a business review, warning further downgrades cannot be ruled out. Further, it’s thought inventory remains elevated in both value and volume.

Worryingly, Morgan Stanley flagged operational risks amid industry feedback (unverified) suggesting staff turnover has been so severe that some stores have occasionally been unable to open due to staffing shortages.

While management noted the balance sheet remains sound with $332m in undrawn facilities, and net profit and cash flow expected to remain within covenants, UBS flagged risks from legacy issues and balance sheet pressure given gearing of 2.1x and uncertain working capital trends.

Turning to average earnings forecasts, here Telix Pharmaceuticals and Zip Co appear second and third on the table below with rises of 40% and 24%, respectively.

While the Telix improvement was exaggerated by the small forecast numbers involved, both Bell Potter and Citi issued positive updates during the week.

Bell Potter pointed to another demonstration of Telix’s continued innovation in prostate cancer management and its capacity to drive meaningful shareholder value.

The company has commenced BiPASS (NCT07052214), a registration-enabling Phase 3 trial aimed at expanding the label of its Prostate-Specific Membrane Antigen Positron Emission Tomography (PSMA-PET) imaging agent to include initial diagnosis of prostate cancer.

The study will assess the performance of PSMA-PET as an adjunct to MRI for detecting and staging clinically significant prostate cancer.

BiPASS represents a significant label expansion opportunity that may add around 750-800k PSMA scans to the addressable market, noted Bell Potter.

Citi highlighted two key catalysts for Telix in the final quarter of 2025.

Safety run-in data from 30 patients in the Phase 3 ProstACT Global trial of TLX591 for metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) are expected.

The FDA resubmission of Pixclara, the company’s brain imaging agent, is also anticipated.

Ord Minnett viewed Zip Co’s September quarter update positively, noting US transaction volume rose 47% in constant currency, prompting management to lift FY26 US total transaction value (TTV) growth guidance to above 40% from over 35%.

Cash earnings of $62.6m exceeded the broker’s expectations, supported by stronger margins and revenue growth, while US customer numbers grew 12%, with increased usage driving TTV expansion.

Zip’s on-market buyback doubled to $100m, reflecting a strong $452m cash balance, suggested analysts at UBS.

While Citi noted higher US bad debts and slower A&NZ growth, this broker forecast FY26 cash earnings will exceed $260m, around 10% ahead of the prior consensus estimate.

Earnings season for banks starts with Westpac on November 3, with UBS suggesting key themes will relate to cost and efficiency gains, as well as net interest margins.

Macquarie Group could surprise on the downside, according to the broker, while Westpac could surprise on the upside. The latter received ratings downgrades to Sell last week from both Morgans and Ord Minnett on valuation.

While also receiving two ratings downgrades on valuation, copper and gold exposure Aeris Resources was the ‘primus inter pares’ among resources, heading up the tables for positive change to target and earnings.

Morgans described a steady first quarter operating result, with Tritton performing in line with expectations, partly offset by softer outcomes at the Cracow operation.

Growth at Tritton through the Murrawombie pit remains on schedule, noted the broker, and ongoing exploration continues to demonstrate potential for further reserve and resource expansion at both Tritton and Cracow.

Rising commodity price forecasts by Morgans and Macquarie had the greater impact on Aeris and the wider sector, with eight of 10 top positions for positive change to target and earnings tables filled by resource stocks.

A notable exception was metallurgical coal exposure Stanmore Resources following its September quarter update.

Mine operations were heavily impacted by excessive rainfall in the first half with total precipitation between January and April nearly twice the historical average for Moranbah.

Morgans explained this disruption left management with considerable ground to make up in the second half, to meet full-year production targets. Although the third quarter performance improved, management slightly reduced its 2025 guidance for saleable production.

The average target price for Vault Minerals rose by 10% last week. Ord Minnett noted the company’s September quarter update was strong, with costs coming in – 4% below consensus, following pre-released sales and cash figures.

Cost outperformance was driven by Mount Monger, reflecting inventory movements, and the King of the Hills mine, where lower mining costs and reduced sustaining capex supported margins.

FY26 guidance was maintained at 332-360koz production and costs (AISC) of between -$2,652-2,850/oz.

UBS highlighted several upcoming catalysts, including hedge book roll-off by early FY27, mine life extensions and exploration upside at Leonora, and the transition to owner-mining at Deflector.

A sharp uplift in cash generation is expected once the hedge book expires, with the analysts forecasting free cash flow yields to rise to 13% in FY27 and 15% in FY28, considxered a key inflection point for the business.

Total Buy ratings in the database comprises 60.00% of the total, versus 31.42% on Neutral/Hold, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 8.58%.

Upgrade

29METALS LIMITED ((29M)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/1/1

Macquarie notes copper and aluminium prices have risen strongly, up 13% and 14% over the past six months, respectively.

Following this rally, the broker upgraded price forecasts for both metals for the next two years. Copper is now forecast at US$4.71/lb and US$4.65/lb in 2026 and 2027, respectively, both up 9%.

Aluminium price forecast is lifted to US$1.16/lb for 2026, up 7%, and to US$1.22/lb for 2027, up 3%. The new forecasts are consistent with the consensus.

EPS forecast for 29Metals lifted by 13% for FY25 and by 46% for FY26.

Target rises to 55c from 48c. Rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.

AERIS RESOURCES LIMITED ((AIS)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/1/0

Macquarie notes copper and aluminium prices have risen strongly, up 13% and 14% over the past six months, respectively.

Following this rally, the broker upgraded price forecasts for both metals for the next two years. Copper is now forecast at US$4.71/lb and US$4.65/lb in 2026 and 2027, respectively, both up 9%.

Aluminium price forecast is lifted to US$1.16/lb for 2026, up 7%, and to US$1.22/lb for 2027, up 3%. The new forecasts are consistent with the consensus.

EPS forecast for Aeris Resources lifted by 37% for FY26 and by 38% for FY27.

Target rises to 70c from 60c. Rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.

See also AIS downgrade.

AUTOSPORTS GROUP LIMITED ((ASG)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 2/0/0

UBS upgrades Autosports Group to Buy from Neutral on the back of an improving new vehicle sales outlook, a trend higher in profit margins, and earnings accretive M&A optionality.

The broker believes the stock is an attractive way to play an improving domestic consumer outlook with OEM mix skewed to the luxury market. Autosports looks relatively cheap compared to the multiples of ASX consumer names and the Small Ords.

UBS upgrades its revenue forecasts, given the stronger implied new vehicle start to 1H26, and also lowers interest expense given the continued reduction in BBSW. The broker does not include M&A in forecasts. Target rises to $4.20 from $3.15.

AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED ((AZJ)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/3/1

Macquarie has upgraded Aurizon Holdings to Outperform from Neutral, highlighting value in the stock despite a two-month delay in appointing a new Chair. The broker also notes the signalling of a second decision on the partial sale of the network business.

Aurizon’s operational performance remains neutral. Below rail continues to underperform the regulated benchmark as expected, while above rail volumes are yet to recover. Consequently, Macquarie leaves the EBITDA outlook unchanged at $1.68-1.75bn.

The company introduced its first dividend guidance at $0.19-0.20 per share. Long-term network assumptions have been extended to 2050, pushing out the demand slowdown to 2040.

Macquarie has made small adjustments to its EPS forecasts, lifting FY26 by 0.1% and FY27 by 1.8%. The target price rises to $3.70 from $3.34, driven by a higher network valuation.

BEACH ENERGY LIMITED ((BPT)) Upgrade to Hold from Trim by Morgans and Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 0/5/2

Morgans raises its target for Beach Energy to $1.25 from $1.16 and upgrades to Hold from Trim following a “solid” 1Q FY26 operational result. Production, sales volumes and revenue each posted single-digit beats versus consensus and the broker’s forecasts.

The analyst highlights imminent first gas from Waitsia Stage 2 as a key catalyst, alongside ongoing flood recovery progress in the Cooper Basin, which is tracking ahead of expectations.

Management’s FY26 guidance for production and capital expenditure remains unchanged.

Beach’s reserves remain undersized, suggests the broker, keeping attention on potential mergers and acquisitions to support long-term production.

Citi maintains its $1.05 target for Beach Energy and upgrades to Neutral from Sell after September quarter results exceeded the broker’s cautious expectations for both production and sales.

Waitsia first gas is due within the week, which the analyst believes may represent a positive inflection for a stock down around -20% year-to-date. It’s thought the project’s start-up should act as a positive sentiment catalyst.

The broker adds execution risk remains for the Otway program, with higher-risk plug and abandonment work in the second half of FY26 potentially lifting costs.

Citi flags abandonment and sustaining capital expenditure near -$750m through FY26-30, around 30% of market capitalisation, as an ongoing overhang.

Positively, mergers and acquisitions are considered likely to sustain production beyond the current seven-year reserve life.

KAROON ENERGY LIMITED ((KAR)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/2/0

Karoon Energy’s September quarter (3Q25) production of 2.59mmboe was down -12% q/q, missing the consensus by -1% and Morgans’ estimate by -3%. Outages at Bauna weighed, though overall the broker reckons it has been performing well, considering all issues.

Pricing and cashflow were strong, with net debt declining -US$89m q/q to US$149m.

The company narrowed FY25 production guidance to 9.8-10.4mmboe from 9.7-10.5mmbo, and trimmed capex estimate to US$95-111m from US$120-140m, reflecting improved operational and capital discipline.

The broker notes the near-term focus is on Bauna well recovery and progressing Who Dat East final investment decision.

The broker believes the company’s fundamentals are intact, and the recent share price weakness is overdone. This prompted an upgrade to Buy from Hold. Target trimmed to $1.80 from $1.90.

NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED ((NST)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 6/1/0

Ord Minnett notes Northern Star Resources’ September quarter (1Q26) update was mixed, with lower production offset by better cost control.

The KCGM expansion remains on track for early FY27 commissioning, supporting 20% group production growth. Net cash of $363m exceeded expectations due to cost discipline and lower capex.

The company maintained FY26 production and cost guidance, though output is expected at the low end after temporary issues at South Kalgoorlie operations and Jundee. 

Target rises 5% to $27 from $25.80 on higher near-term cash flows. Rating upgraded to Accumulate from Hold.

See also NST downgrade.

NORTHERN MINERALS LIMITED ((NTU)) Upgrade to Speculative Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/0/0

The US Export-Import Bank is interested in providing $350m in debt funding to Northern Minerals following the Trump-Albanese meeting. This could assist Wolverine enter production with less equity dilution than Ord Minnett expected.

Moreover, prices of scarce heavy rare earth elements that are rich in Wolverine are soaring. Consequently, Ord Minnett upgrades its target price to 7.5c from 3.6c and its recommendation to Speculative Buy from Hold.

ORA BANDA MINING LIMITED ((OBM)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/1/0

Macquarie highlights the strength of the gold price, which is up 58% year-to-date, and has prompted the broker to lift its gold price forecasts for the next three years.

The analyst is now using the gold forward curve, an upgrade, for two years before a reversion to the previous outlook. Long term, the real price forecast remains unchanged at US$2500/oz.

The gold price assumption rises 12% to around US$4,207/oz for 4Q2025, the 2026 forecast price lifts by 24% to US$4,314/oz, and 2027 by 56% to US$4,403/oz. Price forecast for 2028 is up 20% to US$3,454/oz.

Macquarie lifts Ora Banda Mining’s target to $1.40 from $1.10, with earnings estimates up 31% in FY26 and 137% in FY27. Rating is upgraded to Neutral from Underperform.

REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED ((RRL)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/3/2

Macquarie highlights the strength of the gold price, which is up 58% year-to-date, and has prompted the broker to lift its gold price forecasts for the next three years.

The analyst is now using the gold forward curve, an upgrade, for two years before a reversion to the previous outlook. Long term, the real price forecast remains unchanged at US$2500/oz.

The gold price assumption rises 12% to around US$4,207/oz for 4Q2025, the 2026 forecast price lifts by 24% to US$4,314/oz, and 2027 by 56% to US$4,403/oz. Price forecast for 2028 is up 20% to US$3,454/oz.

Macquarie upgrades Regis Resources to Neutral from Underperform with a lift in target price to $6.80, up 7%.

TEMPLE & WEBSTER GROUP LIMITED ((TPW)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 4/0/2

Bell Potter upgrades Temple & Webster to Buy from Hold following the sell-off in share price and the sector generally.

The online retailer is due to report a 1H26 trading update in late November, and the analyst believes softer annual comps will support the results from Sept/Oct, bringing it around 1H26 consensus expectations.

No change to earnings forecasts. The broker’s revenue forecast is 1-2% above consensus and circa -1% below at the earnings (EBITDA) line for FY26-FY28 due to assumptions around growth investments to gain market share.

Temple & Webster retains cash on the balance sheet of $144m, with potential for growth in share in an expanded total addressable market, boosted by range and pricing/scale benefits, the analyst explains.

Target unchanged at $28.

WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED ((WDS)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/5/0

Morgans notes Woodside Energy has had a big week, with a strong 3Q25 update followed by the announcement of a strategic midstream partner into the Louisiana JV.

Williams will take 10% of LALNG (Louisiana LNG) HoldCo and 80% of the Line 200 pipeline for a total of US$378m, reducing Woodside’s capex by US$1.9bn.

The deal significantly de-risks infrastructure and feedgas delivery and adds valuable US pipeline expertise, with first LNG targeted for 2029 (16.5–27.6mtpa), the broker highlights.

On the 3Q25 update, the broker notes production was up 1% q/q to 50.8mmboe, beating its forecast by 5%. Revenue rose 3% to US$3.36bn, and 10% ahead of its forecasts.

With improving operations, positive oil price momentum, and a stronger macro backdrop, the broker upgraded the rating to Buy from Accumulate. Target rises to $30.50 from $29.60.

Downgrade

AMAERO LIMITED ((3DA)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Shaw and Partners .B/H/S: 0/1/0

Amaero delivered strong y/y revenue growth in 1Q26, but production shortfall caused a miss versus guidance, highlighting ongoing execution risk as production capacity scales, Shaw and Partners highlights.

The company raised $50m in capital recently, and while this strengthens the balance sheet, the broker notes it adds dilution and underscores heavy cash burn.

With breakeven EBITDA now pushed to FY27 amid limited commercial offtake agreements, the broker sees increased operational and demand risk, particularly given reliance on US defence channels.

Sharp downgrades to FY26 revenue and EBITDA forecasts.

Target cut to 25c from 60c on forecast changes and factoring in capital raise. Rating downgraded to Hold, High Risk from Buy, High Risk.

4DMEDICAL LIMITED ((4DX)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Speculative Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/0/0

Ord Minnett downgrades 4DMedical to Accumulate from Speculative Buy, with a new target price of $1.90 from 75c, noting a positive 1Q26 period, including FDA approval of CT:VQ and CMS reimbursement approval at US$650 per scan.

The cash position also improved, up $39m versus the previous quarter, which was down -$7m.

More insights are expected at the upcoming September quarter update, as well as ongoing CT:VQ contract announcements and possible updates from the Radiological Society of North America 2025 event in November.

AERIS RESOURCES LIMITED ((AIS)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Speculative Buy by Morgans and Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 3/1/0

Morgans describes Aeris Resources’ 1Q26 update as steady, with operating performance largely in line. Tritton outperformed but Cracow slightly missed due to outages and lower grades.

Cash balance was up 13% q/q to $32m on stronger cash flow and higher metal prices. Murrawombie pit expansion is progressing well, with a boost in output expected from fresh ore, likely in 2H26.

The broker notes exploration success continues at Tritton (Avoca Tank) and Cracow (Golden Plateau), supporting future resource growth.

Model updated to capture revised gold and copper price forecasts, and lifting forecast for 2H26 production based on Tritton outperformance.

Target rises to 62c from 43c. Rating downgraded to Accumulate from Speculative Buy.

Aeris Resources’ Sep quarter (1Q26) production was in line with Bell Potter’s expectation of lower first-half production.

Tritton production is expected to ramp up with the commencement of ore mining at the Murrawombie open-pit in the 1Q2026, and higher grades are expected at Cracow in the coming quarter.

Aeris is a copper-dominant producer with its near-term outlook highly leveraged to the copper price and increasing production at Tritton.

It operates the largest processing plant in the region, making it a strategically attractive asset and vulnerable as a corporate target, in Bell Potter’s view.

Target rises to 52c from 35c, downgrade to Hold from Buy on recent share price appreciation.

See also AIS upgrade.

AMP LIMITED ((AMP)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/3/0

AMP reported net inflows of $311m in the September quarter (3Q25), with $629m platform inflows offset by -$345m outflows from its super & investment (S&I) arm.

Ord Minnett notes this was the sixth consecutive quarter of platform net inflows, and S&I returned to net outflow after just one quarter of net inflow. Total AUM rose 3.6% to $159.5bn.

The broker sees potential for inflow into S&I from rival disruptions (Shield Master Trust, First Guardian).

No changes to FY25-26 EPS forecasts, and a tiny -0.1% reduction to FY27.

Target rises to $2.05 from $1.95 on higher available capital post-class action settlements. Rating downgraded to Accumulate from Buy following 15% gains so far this month.

CODAN LIMITED ((CDA)) Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 0/3/0

Codan’s AGM featured a reiterated expectation for 15-20% FY26 revenue growth in Communications which compares to consensus at 19%, UBS notes. 

The Minelab business has had a strong start to FY26, off the back of a very buoyant global gold price environment which supports sales into Africa.

UBS remains attracted to the global growth opportunity for Codan due to its exposure to three key favourable macro themes: gold price strength, global defence investment, and public safety.

Target increases to $34.00 from  $29.60 off the back of marginal earnings upgrades to reflect Minelab’s strength and the mark-to-market of peer multiples in the Defence and Resources services markets. Neutral retained.

DYNO NOBEL LIMITED ((DNL)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 1/4/0

UBS resumes coverage of Dyno Nobel with a Neutral rating (previously Buy), following a period of research restriction. The company is now well advanced in its plans to become a pure-play explosives manufacturer and technology/services company.

Dyno posted strong FY25 earnings underpinned by improved DAP fertiliser pricing. The plan is to cease fertiliser manufacturing operations at Phosphate Hill by September 2026, unless a sale can be executed by March 2026.

UBS’ earnings and cash flow forecasts assume Phosphate Hill is closed by the end of FY26. Target $3.35 (up from $3.25).

NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED ((NST)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 6/1/0

Morgans notes Northern Star Resources’ 1Q26 production missed forecasts, but unit cost (AISC) was an upside surprise (lower than consensus and its forecast).

Group production came in at 383koz vs the broker’s 396koz estimate and 393koz consensus. AISC of $2,522/oz was lower than the broker’s $2,606/oz estimate and consensus of $2,715/oz.

The broker notes KCGM performance is improving, with Golden Pike returning to one mining level and underground output reaching a 2.9mtpa run rate.

The company re-affirmed FY26 guidance, expecting to lift through the year as grades and throughput improve. Balance sheet remains strong with $616m net cash, providing flexibility through peak investment at KCGM.

The broker trimmed FY26 production forecast by -1% but lifted FY27 by 1%. Target cut marginally to $27.41 from $27.44.

Rating downgraded to Accumulate from Buy.

See also NST upgrade.

QORIA LIMITED ((QOR)) Downgrade to Sell from Hold by Shaw and Partners .B/H/S: 2/0/1

Qoria’s 1Q26 trading update showed solid group growth but softer K-12 annual recurring revenue (ARR) additions, the weakest in six quarters, Shaw and Partners observes.

Exit ARR rose 24% y/y to $149m, and cash receipts grew 23% to $46.3m, though cash payments increased 19%, pressuring margins. Qustodio (consumer) was the standout, while higher costs and redundancies offset gains.

The company lifted FY26 revenue guidance to over $145m from over $140m before. However, net debt guidance was softened to “in-line” with FY25 from “in-line or lower” flagged at 4Q25 update.

The broker lifted FY26 revenue forecast by 3% and FY27 by 4%, but the net profit forecast was downgraded for FY26 and lifted for FY27.

Target rises to 61c from 52c. Rating downgraded to Sell from Hold, given the 74% year-to-date share rally.

SANTOS LIMITED ((STO)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 5/1/0

Ord Minnett observes Santos posted weaker-than-expected September quarter revenue and output due to the delayed Barossa project start-up.

FY25 production guidance was cut to 89-91 mmboe from 92-93 mmboe amid Cooper Basin flood impacts and slower FPSO ramp-up.

The broker is most disappointed by the cancellation of investor day following the collapsed Abu Dhabi-led takeover. It implies to the broker the company’s strategic options now are debt reduction, project deliveries and higher dividends from FY27. 

EPS forecast trimmed by -7.9% for FY25 and by -6.8% for FY26, mainly on higher depreciation and amortisation charges.

Target cut to $8.10 from $8.35. Rating downgraded to Accumulate from Buy 

WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION ((WBC)) Downgrade to Sell from Lighten by Ord Minnett and Downgrade to Sell from Trim by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/2/4

Westpac will take a -$273m pre-tax restructuring charge in FY25 to fund its Fit for Growth efficiency program, which is expected to deliver productivity gains of a similar scale, according to Ord Minnett.

The broker expects only modest benefits in FY25, with most savings realised through FY26 and FY27.

Ord Minnett has cut its FY25 earnings forecast by -2% but left outer-year estimates unchanged, noting the September quarter showed steady net interest margin (NIM) and sound credit quality.

While the -$2bn UNITE technology rebuild remains costly and disruptive, the broker views it as essential to Westpac’s long-term efficiency.

Ord Minnett retains its $30.00 target price but downgrades the rating to Sell from Lighten, citing limited near-term upside and a stretched valuation.

Morgans makes minor revisions to its Westpac forecasts ahead of the November bank reporting season, which begins with Westpac on November 3.

The broker’s target for Westpac falls to $30.77 from $30.95 and the rating is downgraded to Sell from Trim.

The analyst notes Westpac’s asset base, funding mix and domestic retail focus are similar to those of CommBank ((CBA)), yet growth, profitability and return on equity (ROE) have lagged its larger peer.

These weaker metrics are reflected in Westpac’s lower earnings and asset-based multiples but higher dividend yield, explains the boker.

Morgans suggests improved performance could follow under new management via stronger business banking growth, technology simplification and regulatory capital efficiency, though execution risks remain.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
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