Weekly Reports | 10:30 AM
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday October 20 to Friday October 24, 2025
Total Upgrades: 13
Total Downgrades: 12
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 60.00%; Hold 31.42%; Sell 8.58%
For the week ending Friday, October 24, 2025, FNArena tracked thirteen upgrades and twelve downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.
Average target price increases outpaced cuts for the sixteenth consecutive week, while rises in average forecasts by analysts exceeded falls, aided by increases in commodity price forecasts.
Within the Industrials sector, Qoria’s average target price rose by around 23% following a strong first quarter update, along with an upgrade to FY26 revenue guidance.
Qoria provides child online safety, parental control, and school digital-safety solutions through a suite of integrated technologies under brands such as Linewize, Smoothwall, Qustodio, and NetRef.
Total annual recurring revenue (ARR) rose 24% year-on-year in the first quarter to $149m, supported by strong growth in the Qustodio segment as targeted marketing initiatives delivered results, Ord Minnett explained.
Free cash flow of $11.5m exceeded the broker’s $10.3m estimate, driven by stronger cash receipts and lower interest payments.
Management raised FY26 revenue guidance to above $145m from above $140m, modestly ahead of the $144m consensus forecast. All other guidance metrics including ARR growth, EBITDA margin, and free cash flow remain unchanged.
Qoria also indicated net debt should remain flat in FY26 relative to FY25, before reducing materially in FY27 and beyond.
Bell Potter continues to see 'Value' with the stock trading on an FY26 EV/Revenue multiple of around 8x, representing a reasonable discount to Catapult Sports at roughly 10x and Life360 at about 12x.
The tables below show automotive aftermarket parts, accessories, equipment, and service provider Bapcor suffered the largest fall in average target price (-26%) and the second largest fall in average earnings forecast by brokers last week.
The company’s first quarter trading update included a decline in sales revenue of -2.7%, with management pointing to a first-half net profit of between $14-16m, well below analysts' estimates.
FY26 underlying profit is now guided to $51-61m, some -35% lower than Ord Minnett's prior forecast.
Bapcor continued to lose market share in Trade, explained the broker, while Networks generated earnings growth and regained lost customers from FY25. In Retail, Ord Minnett observed Autobarn continues to be challenged against a weak macro backdrop of soft discretionary spending and increased competition.
For several reasons, Citi found it difficult to turn more positive on the stock.
Management’s plan to retain the Executive Chairman for two to three years, citing execution benefits, continues to raise governance concerns that weigh on investor sentiment, suggested this broker.
Citi also highlighted persistent operational issues from a business review, warning further downgrades cannot be ruled out. Further, it’s thought inventory remains elevated in both value and volume.
Worryingly, Morgan Stanley flagged operational risks amid industry feedback (unverified) suggesting staff turnover has been so severe that some stores have occasionally been unable to open due to staffing shortages.
While management noted the balance sheet remains sound with $332m in undrawn facilities, and net profit and cash flow expected to remain within covenants, UBS flagged risks from legacy issues and balance sheet pressure given gearing of 2.1x and uncertain working capital trends.
Turning to average earnings forecasts, here Telix Pharmaceuticals and Zip Co appear second and third on the table below with rises of 40% and 24%, respectively.
While the Telix improvement was exaggerated by the small forecast numbers involved, both Bell Potter and Citi issued positive updates during the week.
Bell Potter pointed to another demonstration of Telix’s continued innovation in prostate cancer management and its capacity to drive meaningful shareholder value.
The company has commenced BiPASS (NCT07052214), a registration-enabling Phase 3 trial aimed at expanding the label of its Prostate-Specific Membrane Antigen Positron Emission Tomography (PSMA-PET) imaging agent to include initial diagnosis of prostate cancer.
The study will assess the performance of PSMA-PET as an adjunct to MRI for detecting and staging clinically significant prostate cancer.
BiPASS represents a significant label expansion opportunity that may add around 750-800k PSMA scans to the addressable market, noted Bell Potter.
Citi highlighted two key catalysts for Telix in the final quarter of 2025.
Safety run-in data from 30 patients in the Phase 3 ProstACT Global trial of TLX591 for metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) are expected.
The FDA resubmission of Pixclara, the company’s brain imaging agent, is also anticipated.
Ord Minnett viewed Zip Co’s September quarter update positively, noting US transaction volume rose 47% in constant currency, prompting management to lift FY26 US total transaction value (TTV) growth guidance to above 40% from over 35%.
Cash earnings of $62.6m exceeded the broker’s expectations, supported by stronger margins and revenue growth, while US customer numbers grew 12%, with increased usage driving TTV expansion.
Zip’s on-market buyback doubled to $100m, reflecting a strong $452m cash balance, suggested analysts at UBS.
While Citi noted higher US bad debts and slower A&NZ growth, this broker forecast FY26 cash earnings will exceed $260m, around 10% ahead of the prior consensus estimate.
Earnings season for banks starts with Westpac on November 3, with UBS suggesting key themes will relate to cost and efficiency gains, as well as net interest margins.
Macquarie Group could surprise on the downside, according to the broker, while Westpac could surprise on the upside. The latter received ratings downgrades to Sell last week from both Morgans and Ord Minnett on valuation.
While also receiving two ratings downgrades on valuation, copper and gold exposure Aeris Resources was the 'primus inter pares' among resources, heading up the tables for positive change to target and earnings.
Morgans described a steady first quarter operating result, with Tritton performing in line with expectations, partly offset by softer outcomes at the Cracow operation.
Growth at Tritton through the Murrawombie pit remains on schedule, noted the broker, and ongoing exploration continues to demonstrate potential for further reserve and resource expansion at both Tritton and Cracow.
Rising commodity price forecasts by Morgans and Macquarie had the greater impact on Aeris and the wider sector, with eight of 10 top positions for positive change to target and earnings tables filled by resource stocks.
A notable exception was metallurgical coal exposure Stanmore Resources following its September quarter update.
Mine operations were heavily impacted by excessive rainfall in the first half with total precipitation between January and April nearly twice the historical average for Moranbah.
Morgans explained this disruption left management with considerable ground to make up in the second half, to meet full-year production targets. Although the third quarter performance improved, management slightly reduced its 2025 guidance for saleable production.
The average target price for Vault Minerals rose by 10% last week. Ord Minnett noted the company's September quarter update was strong, with costs coming in - 4% below consensus, following pre-released sales and cash figures.
Cost outperformance was driven by Mount Monger, reflecting inventory movements, and the King of the Hills mine, where lower mining costs and reduced sustaining capex supported margins.
FY26 guidance was maintained at 332-360koz production and costs (AISC) of between -$2,652-2,850/oz.
UBS highlighted several upcoming catalysts, including hedge book roll-off by early FY27, mine life extensions and exploration upside at Leonora, and the transition to owner-mining at Deflector.
A sharp uplift in cash generation is expected once the hedge book expires, with the analysts forecasting free cash flow yields to rise to 13% in FY27 and 15% in FY28, considxered a key inflection point for the business.
Total Buy ratings in the database comprises 60.00% of the total, versus 31.42% on Neutral/Hold, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 8.58%.
Upgrade
29METALS LIMITED ((29M)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/1/1
Macquarie notes copper and aluminium prices have risen strongly, up 13% and 14% over the past six months, respectively.
Following this rally, the broker upgraded price forecasts for both metals for the next two years. Copper is now forecast at US$4.71/lb and US$4.65/lb in 2026 and 2027, respectively, both up 9%.
Aluminium price forecast is lifted to US$1.16/lb for 2026, up 7%, and to US$1.22/lb for 2027, up 3%. The new forecasts are consistent with the consensus.
EPS forecast for 29Metals lifted by 13% for FY25 and by 46% for FY26.
Target rises to 55c from 48c. Rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.
AERIS RESOURCES LIMITED ((AIS)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/1/0
Macquarie notes copper and aluminium prices have risen strongly, up 13% and 14% over the past six months, respectively.
Following this rally, the broker upgraded price forecasts for both metals for the next two years. Copper is now forecast at US$4.71/lb and US$4.65/lb in 2026 and 2027, respectively, both up 9%.
Aluminium price forecast is lifted to US$1.16/lb for 2026, up 7%, and to US$1.22/lb for 2027, up 3%. The new forecasts are consistent with the consensus.
EPS forecast for Aeris Resources lifted by 37% for FY26 and by 38% for FY27.
Target rises to 70c from 60c. Rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.
See also AIS downgrade.
AUTOSPORTS GROUP LIMITED ((ASG)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 2/0/0
UBS upgrades Autosports Group to Buy from Neutral on the back of an improving new vehicle sales outlook, a trend higher in profit margins, and earnings accretive M&A optionality.
The broker believes the stock is an attractive way to play an improving domestic consumer outlook with OEM mix skewed to the luxury market. Autosports looks relatively cheap compared to the multiples of ASX consumer names and the Small Ords.
UBS upgrades its revenue forecasts, given the stronger implied new vehicle start to 1H26, and also lowers interest expense given the continued reduction in BBSW. The broker does not include M&A in forecasts. Target rises to $4.20 from $3.15.
AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED ((AZJ)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/3/1
Macquarie has upgraded Aurizon Holdings to Outperform from Neutral, highlighting value in the stock despite a two-month delay in appointing a new Chair. The broker also notes the signalling of a second decision on the partial sale of the network business.
Aurizon’s operational performance remains neutral. Below rail continues to underperform the regulated benchmark as expected, while above rail volumes are yet to recover. Consequently, Macquarie leaves the EBITDA outlook unchanged at $1.68-1.75bn.
The company introduced its first dividend guidance at $0.19-0.20 per share. Long-term network assumptions have been extended to 2050, pushing out the demand slowdown to 2040.
Macquarie has made small adjustments to its EPS forecasts, lifting FY26 by 0.1% and FY27 by 1.8%. The target price rises to $3.70 from $3.34, driven by a higher network valuation.
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