In Case You Missed It – BC Extra Upgrades & Downgrades – 07-11-25

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This story features SHAPE AUSTRALIA CORPORATION LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SHA
The company is included in ALL-ORDS

A summary of the highlights from Broker Call Extra updates throughout the week past.

Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

Upgrade

SHAPE AUSTRALIA CORPORATION LIMITED ((SHA)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Petra Capital.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Petra Capital raises its target for Shape Australia by 55.8% to $6.70 and upgrades to Buy from Hold following an AGM trading update.

The broker highlights a stronger-than-expected pipeline, orderbook, and project win trajectory, prompting material earnings and valuation upgrades.

The update implies to the analyst annual revenue of about $1.1bn, well ahead of prior assumptions, with margin volatility expected as modular and major fit-out contracts roll off before new projects commence in 2H26.

Petra Capital’s confidence in the Victorian pipeline has also improved following a major $70m consultancy refit win and larger tenders underway.

WISETECH GLOBAL LIMITED ((WTC)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden lowers its target for WiseTech Global to $73 from $82 and upgrades to Neutral from Underweight noting the stock price now better reflects balanced upside and downside risks.

The analysts still regard WiseTech as a high-quality, high-return on invested capital (ROIC) growth business but caution the ongoing ASIC and AFP investigations could distract management and pressure FY26 guidance.

Conversely, consensus FY26 revenue expectations appear conservative in the analysts’ view, leaving scope for upgrades if WiseTech delivers near the top of its 14-21% CargoWise growth range or improves operating leverage.

Jarden trims its FY26 EPS forecast by -3.2% after lowering forecast CargoWise growth to 16%, highlighting longer-term consensus assumptions as overly bullish.

The broker argues WiseTech must rebuild investor confidence through clearer operational targets, transparent KPIs, improved communication, and a defined succession plan for founder Richard White.

Downgrade

IGO LIMITED ((IGO)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

IGO Ltd’s September quarter showed weaker Greenbushes production and limited near-term cash generation.

Greenbushes output of 320kt was -13% below Jarden’s expectations due to lower grades and weather impacts, with sales also underperforming guidance.

The broker comments the joint venture structure continues to limit operational transparency.

Material cash generation in FY26 now appears unlikely, with high corporate and exploration costs offsetting limited free cash flow and uncertainty around Kwinana distributions.

With Nova nearing closure in late 2026, Jarden questions IGO’s long-term value proposition given ongoing costs and limited returns from prior investments.

The analyst cuts its FY26 earnings (EBITDA) forecast by -18% to $236m. The stock is downgraded to Neutral, citing preference for simpler lithium exposure through Pilbara Minerals ((PLS)). No change to $4.84 target.

SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED ((SFR)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden cuts its rating for Sandfire Resources to Sell from Neutral, while lifting its target to $11.80 from $11.00.

The broker argues valuation is stretched even against an illustrative long-term copper price modeling of US$5.00/lb.

The operational performance is labeled as mixed: sales outpaced production with five Motheo shipments and negative TC/RCs reported, but group CuEq 35.5kt and Matsa AISC US$2.92/lb offset Motheo’s AISC US$2.18/lb.

Forecasts rise quite substantially with net debt improving to US$62m at Sep-25. Sandfire is expected to be net cash by end 2025.

Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

More Highlights

AMA    AMA GROUP LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $0.09

Canaccord Genuity rates ((AMA)) as Buy (1) –

AMA Group reported a solid 1Q26 update, with earnings (EBITDA) of $20.1m, up 36% on the prior year, and FY26 guidance maintained at $70–75m.

Canaccord Genuity viewed the results positively noting it was driven by ongoing strength in the AMA Collision division, lifting group earnings margins to 7.4% from 6.8% in 2H25, partly offset by softer performance in the Wales Heavy Truck business.

Revenue rose 6.5% y/y to $273.2m, with a higher average repair price helping to offset slightly lower repair volumes. Excluding delayed receipts, underlying operating cash flow was $5.6m versus $0.9m a year earlier.

The result was underpinned by improved efficiency and profitability, and the broker continues to expect progress toward AMA’s medium-term earnings margin target of 10%.

No change to Buy rating and 15c target.

This report was published on November 2, 2025.

Target price is $0.15 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: $0.057
If AMA meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 61% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.60.

Forecast for FY27:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.29.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BC8    BLACK CAT SYNDICATE LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.90

Petra Capital rates ((BC8)) as Buy (1) –

Black Cat Syndicate delivered a solid September quarter, with production up 68% on the prior quarter at Paulsens to 7.7koz and 10koz from Kal East under the MMS joint venture.

Petra Capital notes the Lakewood mill is in transition as mining at Myhree winds down and new feed from Fingals and Majestic builds toward first processing in March quarter 2026. Mill capacity has been maintained through 290kt of third-party ore purchases.

With a strong $90m cash position, Paulsens generating positive cash flow, and additional inflows expected from the MMS JV and toll milling, the analyst sees Black Cat as well funded and unhedged to pursue growth.

Petra revises its production forecasts lower to 59koz in FY26 and 120koz in FY27 due to adjusted ramp-up timing but still expects a run rate above 100koz per annum by June quarter 2026.

The rating is maintained at Buy, with the target price reduced to $2.30 from $2.50 

This report was published on October 31, 2025.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $0.90 Difference: $1.405
If BC8 meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 157% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 27.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.29.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 47.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 1.90.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EQT    EQT HOLDINGS LIMITED

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $25.22

Canaccord Genuity rates ((EQT)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity believes EQT Holdings’ shares are oversold due to regulatory uncertainty and retains a Buy rating and $34.57 target, from $37 previously.

The broker views market fears around Shield and First Guardian exposure are overstated, noting EQT’s strong balance sheet with more than $70m net cash and potential access to over $50m in insurance recovery.

In a worst-case scenario, the analyst expects any remediation costs to be manageable, supported by the possibility of suspending dividends or obtaining government assistance under the SIS Act.

First-quarter funds under management and administration rose 4% q/q to $263.3b, with revenue up 15% y/y to $49.9m, supported by strong inflows and new managed investment scheme launches, the broker notes.

This report was published on October 31, 2025.

Target price is $34.57 Current Price is $25.22 Difference: $9.35
If EQT meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 117.00 cents and EPS of 168.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.01.

Forecast for FY27:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 122.00 cents and EPS of 178.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.17.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NVX    NOVONIX LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.48

Petra Capital rates ((NVX)) as Buy (1) –

Novonix achieved a key milestone in 1Q26 with first commercial production of synthetic graphite from its 3ktpa Riverside plant, making it the only large-scale supplier in North America

Petra Capital notes a ramp up in deliveries to industrial and battery customers for qualification, supported by protection from 160% tariffs on Chinese graphite imports and reinforced by US grants and tax credits.

Cash at quarter end was US$45m, excluding an additional US$49m received in October from the final tranche of its Yorkville Advisors debenture agreement. Revenue rose to US$2.8m, driven by stronger performance from the Battery Technology Solutions division, while operating cash outflow was US$9.2m and quarterly capex US$13.7m.

Buy rating retained. Target price rises to 83c from 74c, reflecting quarterly updates and new share issuance.

This report was published on October 31, 2025.

Target price is $0.83 Current Price is $0.48 Difference: $0.35
If NVX meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 73% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 13.33.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 24.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PRU    PERSEUS MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $4.87

Canaccord Genuity rates ((PRU)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity believes incumbent Alassane Ouattara’s likely fourth term win as the Ivory Coast’s president (he did win) would likely sustain economic growth, investor confidence, and policy stability, especially in infrastructure and mining.

For mining, Ouattara’s victory means continuity and stability, while a power change could bring policy uncertainty and investment delays, the broker explains.

A revised mining code expected in 2026 may raise royalties, taxes, and state interests, though existing licences could be grandfathered.

Perseus Mining and Turaco Gold are two companies with significant exposures in the country.

Buy maintained for Perseus. Target price $7.55.

This report was published on October 21, 2025.

Target price is $7.55 Current Price is $4.87 Difference: $2.68
If PRU meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.26, suggesting upside of 9.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 6.23 cents and EPS of 49.81 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.

Forecast for FY27:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 6.23 cents and EPS of 48.26 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.2, implying annual growth of -10.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PWR    PETER WARREN AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $1.85

Jarden rates ((PWR)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden observes Peter Warren Automotive offered a positive AGM update with progress in recovery from recent margin lows. Management is now forecasting a significant increase in FY26 earnings rather than modest growth as previously guided.

Used car sales rose 14% year to date, well ahead of industry trends, while growth in service, parts, and finance operations continued to underpin performance.

The broker lifts its FY26 EPS forecasts by around 4%, supported by stronger used car sales and margin expansion, partly offset by higher interest costs, resulting in an expected pre-tax profit margin improvement to 1.22% from 0.90% in FY25.

Target price moves up to $2.45 from $2.30 and a Buy rating is maintained.

This report was published on October 30, 2025.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $1.85 Difference: $0.595
If PWR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.08, suggesting upside of 12.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 7.80 cents and EPS of 12.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.8, implying annual growth of 67.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Forecast for FY27:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 10.80 cents and EPS of 17.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.0, implying annual growth of 35.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TM1    TERRA METALS LIMITED

Overnight Price: $0.14

Petra Capital rates ((TM1)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Petra Capital initiates coverage of Terra Metals with a Buy rating and 19c target price, noting Terra is advancing its large-scale, multi-metal Dante Project in the West Musgrave region of WA.

Initial exploration has defined a resource of 148Mt at 1.38% copper equivalent from only 10% of the 80km mineralised strike, within a 1,200km² tenement package. 

Multiple mineralised reefs host titanium, vanadium, copper, gold, and platinum group elements, with recent drilling also confirming magmatic nickel–copper sulphides. Early metallurgical test work indicates a simple flowsheet capable of producing three high-value concentrates.

The analyst’s preliminary modeling assumes mining 40Mt at 2Mtpa over 20 years, generating around $130m earnings (EBITDA) and $360m in net present value, with significant upside potential as exploration progresses.

This report was published on November 3, 2025.

Target price is $0.19 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.05
If TM1 meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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