Weekly Reports | 11:00 AM
A summary of the highlights from Broker Call Extra updates throughout the week past.
Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
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SHAPE AUSTRALIA CORPORATION LIMITED ((SHA)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Petra Capital.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Petra Capital raises its target for Shape Australia by 55.8% to $6.70 and upgrades to Buy from Hold following an AGM trading update.
The broker highlights a stronger-than-expected pipeline, orderbook, and project win trajectory, prompting material earnings and valuation upgrades.
The update implies to the analyst annual revenue of about $1.1bn, well ahead of prior assumptions, with margin volatility expected as modular and major fit-out contracts roll off before new projects commence in 2H26.
Petra Capital's confidence in the Victorian pipeline has also improved following a major $70m consultancy refit win and larger tenders underway.
WISETECH GLOBAL LIMITED ((WTC)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden lowers its target for WiseTech Global to $73 from $82 and upgrades to Neutral from Underweight noting the stock price now better reflects balanced upside and downside risks.
The analysts still regard WiseTech as a high-quality, high-return on invested capital (ROIC) growth business but caution the ongoing ASIC and AFP investigations could distract management and pressure FY26 guidance.
Conversely, consensus FY26 revenue expectations appear conservative in the analysts' view, leaving scope for upgrades if WiseTech delivers near the top of its 14-21% CargoWise growth range or improves operating leverage.
Jarden trims its FY26 EPS forecast by -3.2% after lowering forecast CargoWise growth to 16%, highlighting longer-term consensus assumptions as overly bullish.
The broker argues WiseTech must rebuild investor confidence through clearer operational targets, transparent KPIs, improved communication, and a defined succession plan for founder Richard White.
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IGO LIMITED ((IGO)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
IGO Ltd's September quarter showed weaker Greenbushes production and limited near-term cash generation.
Greenbushes output of 320kt was -13% below Jarden's expectations due to lower grades and weather impacts, with sales also underperforming guidance.
The broker comments the joint venture structure continues to limit operational transparency.
Material cash generation in FY26 now appears unlikely, with high corporate and exploration costs offsetting limited free cash flow and uncertainty around Kwinana distributions.
With Nova nearing closure in late 2026, Jarden questions IGO’s long-term value proposition given ongoing costs and limited returns from prior investments.
The analyst cuts its FY26 earnings (EBITDA) forecast by -18% to $236m. The stock is downgraded to Neutral, citing preference for simpler lithium exposure through Pilbara Minerals ((PLS)). No change to $4.84 target.
SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED ((SFR)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden cuts its rating for Sandfire Resources to Sell from Neutral, while lifting its target to $11.80 from $11.00.
The broker argues valuation is stretched even against an illustrative long-term copper price modeling of US$5.00/lb.
The operational performance is labeled as mixed: sales outpaced production with five Motheo shipments and negative TC/RCs reported, but group CuEq 35.5kt and Matsa AISC US$2.92/lb offset Motheo's AISC US$2.18/lb.
Forecasts rise quite substantially with net debt improving to US$62m at Sep-25. Sandfire is expected to be net cash by end 2025.
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