Currencies | Dec 01 2010
FNArena has added a new video broadcast to the Investors Education section on the website.
Jerry Simmons, Lead Mentor and Co-Founder of the Advanced Trading Workshop (“ATW”) offers further analysis on AUD/USD in the ATW Strategic Prep Video 2010-11-29 “AUDUSD Weekly Chart S/R Levels", offering the possibility that we may have seen the peak in AUD/USD.
Summary
In this video, Jerry Simmons, Lead Mentor and Co-Founder of the Advanced Trading Workshop, Inc. (“ATW”), New York, updates his previous analyses of the AUDUSD as published on the FNArena website. He concludes that:
• There is a distinct possibility that the AUDUSD has completed a 5-w Eliot move, because 3 of 4 previously defined RBO (reversal-break-outs) levels have indeed been broken to the downside and now serve as resistance (a concept the ATW teaches as “role-reversal”).
• This completion of the 5-w move suggests a return to the .8500 – .8600 price are, but this could take weeks if not months.
• There are several important support levels on the way down to the .8500 – .8600 area and rallies and/or consolidation above and around those levels can be expected.
Comments
One of the key concepts that the ATW Advanced Trading Workshop methodology teaches is that the analyst must never close his/her mind to any possibility and consider all alternatives for price action on their respective merit and let the market tell us where it is going rather than start off with a preconceived idea and only look at evidence supporting that particular view.
For this reason, RBO’s (Reversal Break-Out Zones) are always defined in both directions, up and down from the current price level; those above constitute resistance, those below support. A “confirmed” breaking through one of these zones therefore constitutes a “significant event”, for instance a breaking through an RBO serving as support.
The first three previously defined RBO’s .9950, .9800 and .9650 have all been taken out. Jerry considers that the likelihood of step 4 (RBO: .9450) being taken out are high.
If, as Jerry considers, the interpretation of recent price action in the AUDUSD is correct, i.e. that a 5w move has been completed, then the ATW teaches that a 786 RTC (Retracement) of the 5th wave follows. The completion target for that move down would be in the .8500 to .8700 area.
We have completed 8 consecutive weeks where the high of the weekly bar was greater than the major pivot high of July 2008; this week is likely to have a high less than that of July 2008. But the lesser probability of a rally also has to be considered, especially if the AUDUSD were to get up to the 0.9750 level again.
On the way down, the next major support levels are at 0.9500, off which level a bounce is to be expected. The next one then is at .9200 – .9400. That support is so strong and so well defined that the AUDUSD is unlikely to “rip through” it; a rally off that level or at the very least a lengthy consolidation is to be expected.
To view the ATW Strategic Prep Video (originally from November 29, 2010) titled "AUDUSD Weekly Chart S/R Levels" click HERE or visit the FNArena Investors Education section of the website.
All views expressed are Jeremy Simmons's, not FNArena's (see our disclaimer).
Jerry Simmons has over 25 years of full-time trading experience. He is the senior partner and head mentor for the “Masters” Programme within the education system at New York based Advanced Trading Workshop (ATW). ATW recently set up shop in Australia through the establishment of ATW Australia (since mid-2010).
FNArena is pleased to have Jerry Simmons as a highly valued contributor to its service which aims at both educating investors and assisting them with their own market analyses.
The above mentioned video has been added to the FNArena Investor Education section at https://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_minc_education)
The direct link to the video behind today's story is:
https://www.fnarena.com/index4.cfm?type=dsp_minc_video&p=16
About ATW Australia
Founded in June 2010, ATW Australia is a “one-stop-shop for all a trader needs to succeed”: quality education for new traders, superb advanced trading education, fast unfiltered data, a world-leading trading platform, customer oriented competitive brokerage, quality ‘Made in the USA’ specialized trading computers, trading magazines, and the all-important psychological mentoring and coaching for traders. The trading educational products are provided by the Advanced Trading Workshop, Inc. in New York, all other services are provided by a network of partners that were chosen based on their superior products and services in their specific field of expertise. FNArena is one such partner.
To learn more visit www.advancedtradingworkshop.com.au.
