Weekly Reports | Feb 03 2012
By Greg Peel
Will we or won't we see a deal out Greece next week? It would be the third week in a row we've been expecting one. Probably best to assume we won't and then be pleasantly surprised if it comes. As for market reaction, a result has been expected now since before Christmas so it's hard to see any significant market move afoot. If anything, the risk probably lies to the downside.
We'll first see the US jobs numbers in the US tonight and 150,000 jobs are expected to have been added last month to provide a steady unemployment rate of 8.5%.
It's a quiet week for data in the US this week with wholesale trade and the trade balance the highlights towards the end of the week. The Treasury will auction threes, tens and thirties over the week and US bond rates are once again flirting with record low yields, reflecting both safe haven status and the Fed's zero cash rate extension. US earnings season rolls on but starts to thin out now.
Which means we can shift focus now to the local half and full-year earnings season. As far as releases are concerned it's a matter of busy, busier and busiest for the next three weeks. There are some big names out of the blocks this week and readers are directed to the FNArena calendar (link below).
Economically the highlight next week will be the RBA rate decision on Tuesday. At this stage consensus is for another cut and I'd suggest the Fed's move last week to effectively ease further will provide the RBA with the last little push it might need. Ahead of the decision we have retail sales numbers and the Westpac consumer confidence survey will follow, along with NAB's quarterly summary of business conditions and confidence.
Thursday night will see attention focused on Europe with rate decisions due from both the ECB and Bank of England. Will Draghi cut again?
Ahead of those decisions China will release its monthly inflation data which may or may not lead to further easing from Beijing. And Friday will see the Chinese trade data.
For a more comprehensive preview of next week's events, please refer to "The Monday Report", published each Monday morning. For all economic data release dates, ex-div dates and times and other relevant information, please refer to the FNArena Calendar.
