Daily Market Reports | Jun 05 2012
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck
Haven't you heard? There's a new sport that's becoming very popular this month, it's called "looking for The Bottom" and it's catching on quite rapidly across all continents (except maybe, Antarctica). Last night, US equities managed to put a stop to the continuous sliding experience of May and this, no doubt, will attract even more participants for this new global sport.
The S&P 500 closed up (note: up, not down) 0.14pts or 0.01% at 1278.18, while the Nasdaq (helped by Apple) eked out a gain of 12.53pts to 2760.01. The Dow lost 17.11 points and closed at 12,101.46, a loss of 0.14%.
SPI futures in Sydney are up by 20 points.
What is supporting investor confidence in general is that throughout this correction, volumes have remained on the thin side and last night was no exception. The general thinking behind this observation is that "panic" and "forced selling" are still absent and this means everybody is keeping a cool head. Thus it should be only a matter of time before we can all jump back on the train that's traveling up north again (or so the general line of thinking goes).
Further supporting market sentiment was the revelation last night by a Canadian government spokeswoman, cited by Reuters, that finance ministers and central bank governors of the Group of Seven (G7) industrialized nations will hold a conference call on Tuesday morning. Central bankers and governments are grouping together to find the cure to the global flu. Cannot be bad, can it?
As far as economic data are concerned, you know the drill by now: mixed to flat out disappointing. Last night it was reported the US ISM gauge for New York eased slightly from 57.4 to 57.3 in May. US factory orders eased by 0.6% in April, a result softer than the expected 0.2% gain. the employment trends index rose from 108 to 108.34 in May.
As reported yesterday, UK markets were closed (has something to do with someone who has been in her job for sixty years and refuses to retire. Probably a victim of the GFC bear market too). Other European bourses fared better. While the German Dax fell by 1.2%, Spanish, Italian and French markets rose. UK markets closed also means no metals trade, but as an indication: benchmark crude oil prices rose for the first day in five, helped by a weaker greenback. US Nymex crude rose by US75c or 0.9% to US$83.98 a barrel. London Brent crude rose by US42c to US$98.85 a barrel.
The August Comex gold futures fell by US$8.20 or 0.5% to US$1,613.90 an ounce. Remarkable, how gold finding its safe haven status again can work to its benefit one day, but to its disadvantage the next.
On currency markets, the general trend quickly established itself: USD down, all the rest up (except JPY). And so it was that the euro rose from lows around US$1.2400 to highs near US$1.2505 to close US trade near US$1.2495. The Aussie dollar lifted from lows near US96.40c to highs around US97.45c and ended US trade near US97.25c. The Japanese yen, however, eased from 77.96 yen per US dollar to JPY78.38 and ended US trade near the lows.
For once, US treasuries played ball as well, with long term prices falling (thus yields higher). Don't get too excited about this yet, as some market commentators are mentioning "profit taking" as the main driver. US 10yr yields rose by 7pts to 1.53%, but US 2yr yields fell by 1pt to 0.254%.
On the calendar today, the US can look forward to the release of the ISM services index. In Australia, the Reserve Bank Board meets to decide interest rate settings, while in the background the Performance of Services index will be released together with government finance and the balance of payments figures. The general mood has shifted towards "action" from the RBA board, though not everyone is equally convinced.
Greg Peel sent me an SMS yesterday indicating he thinks the RBA will cut by 50bp. Let's find out whether the in-house RBA watcher has it right this time.
Meanwhile, spare a thought for one of those other background statistics that virtually receive no attention in the financial press: Record Number Of US Households On Foodstamps http://tinyurl.com/clp5ahk
Greg Peel (his SMS should be regarded as an exception) will be back on Monday.
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