FYI | Aug 17 2012
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
I joined Twitter. Not because I am curious what this celebrity has to say about her kids, or to read that another one is waiting for a connecting flight, impatiently. Twitter allows me to follow news and commentary sources such as Dow Jones' Marketwatch, Bloomberg News and the Wall Street Journal. It assists me in keeping up with what is happening across the globe, while I am observing and analysing financial markets myself.
While I am on Twitter, reading a quote here and a news flash there, I offer my own succinct insights and commentary. Those amongst you who have already discovered the virtues of a Twitter account can add my Tweets to their daily news via @filapek.
For those who have no intention to join Twitter, but would like to stay up to date, below are my Tweets from the week past:
– Stockbrokers remain in downgrade mode: WES, ORL, ASX, ABC, BXB and REA all receiving downgrades this morning; earnings estimates sliding
– UBS reviews Oz reporting season: earnings down, share prices up. Underlying trend market on course for yet another negative year (FY12 -2%)
– Citi warns "buyers beware" as H2 will still be difficult for global miners. Earnings momentum remains negative. Has Neutral sector stance
– UBS Resources Team says rally in resources stocks not supported by fundamentals. Analysts believe "risk/reward for the sector here is bad"
– BA-ML stick to their 3 guns: yield, growth and quality. Short term outlook equities positive, but limited reasons for a general re-rating
– Dennis Gartman: all of gains in US retail sales were due to seasonal adjustments, without it retail sales actually fell; very disquieting
– Macquarie has elevated Ansell to Conviction Buy (Marquee Idea) post better-than-expected earnings report
– Reports GS: Oz reporting season on its way to mark the worst post GFC; majority sees downward revisions FY13 earnings forecasts
– Down, Down, Everything Down – CBA updates commodity prices forecasts – iron ore down by 16% to USD 128/t in FY13, by 8% to USD 134/t in FY14
– BA-ML continues to recommend investors position portfolios with exposure to defensive and early-cycle sectors. Underweight Oz energy stocks
– My take on why local equities are treading water – all about the banks http://bit.ly/OYZZ80
– NAB this morning: "there is no elevator waiting to take the AUD sharply lower". AUDUSD projected to remain inside 1.0455-1.0540 range today
– For what it's worth: I have been arguing exactly that (both) for years now – here's plenty to digest and enjoy http://read.bi/ROAIRp 2/2
– Intriguing discussion among world's elite experts: no correlation between GDP and equity returns, plus Bill Gross' flaw is "dividends" 1/2
– While on the flipside… Citi has issued Global Overweight rating for Oz Banks on continued search for yield and forecast earnings recovery
– UBS has some bad news for all you hopefuls out there: no significant CB stimulus ahead as stress in economies not bad enough, so no QE3
– NAB observes AUD/USD trading down to 1.0480 – its lowest level since August 3rd. My earlier Tweet suggests more weakness in store
– DB decides to offload resources and other cyclicals as risk rally labeled "not sustainable". Commodities will recover, but too early yet
– GS observes: "US equity volume yesterday reached the lowest level since at least 2008 excluding holidays." Not that it's different in Oz
– JP Morgan typifies the quest at NAB: "Still Searching For Earnings Growth (6 quarters on…" My analysis says banks are overvalued, beware!
– Technical chartists report AUD looks "heavy" and not just against USD. Should we expect more weakness ahead?
– PFP's Tim Price: suspect now that the most vulnerable investors in the years ahead will be those that are either hopeful, credulous or both
– BA-ML foresees Chinese growth to slightly rebound in 4Q12 but to dip again in 1H13. GDP growth forecasts lowered to 7.4% and 7.7% in Q3/Q4
– UBS predicts easier lending by US banks will push up job creation to 150k per month in second half. Not fantastic, but better than Q2
– JP Morgan believes BHP will shelve US$20bn Port Hedland Outer Harbour project and opt for inner harbour route. All shall be revealed Aug 22?
– Interesting… both number of dividend payers as well as total dividend payments are at 21st century high in US. Even Apple pays nowadays
– Citi thinks small cap stocks are making a comeback with further gains to be seen. In particular likes small resources and mining services
– Happily say it again: it was a lot of luck that kept subprime from Australian shores http://bit.ly/TxEJtm
– Gartman predicts equities will continue climbing the wall of worry and climb higher. Volatility to leak out of the market
– Westpac predicts US GDP growth below 2% in 2013, hence why more QE from Fed is anticipated sooner rather than later. 2% estimated for 2012
– Deutsche Bank sees spot iron ore falling to US$110/t in short term, but response from Chinese producers to put floor under the price
– Deutsche Bank cut 2012 China GDP forecast to 7.7% from 7.9%, 2013 GDP to 8.2% from 8.4%. Anticipate no recovery Q3, weak recovery Q4
– BA-ML believes no news is good news for capital markets. Strategists would not be surprised if the recent “risk-on” trade runs a bit further
– Current price forecasts for metals at Barclays anticipate rally in December quarter on the back of improved global sentiment, China incl
– Barclays increases Underweight positions for base and precious metals as fundamentals remain weak and no FOMC meeting as yet
– Barclays moves Overweight Brent crude, offset by Underweight WTI position as the latter is expected to underperform in months ahead
– Equity strategists (in unison): defensive assets ran too far, while cyclicals have underperformed too much. Not difficult to see why switch
You can add my regular Tweets on Twitter via @filapek
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