FYI | Jan 14 2013
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
I joined Twitter. Not because I am curious what this celebrity has to say about her kids, or to read that another one is waiting for a connecting flight, impatiently. Twitter allows me to follow news and commentary sources such as Dow Jones' Marketwatch, Bloomberg News and the Wall Street Journal. It assists me in keeping up with what is happening across the globe, while I am observing and analysing financial markets myself.
While I am on Twitter, reading a quote here and a news flash there, I offer my own succinct insights and commentary. Those amongst you who have already discovered the virtues of a Twitter account can add my Tweets to their daily news via @filapek.
For those who have no intention to join Twitter, but would like to stay up to date, below are my Tweets from the period between December 22 and this morning:
– BA-ML downgrades BHP to Underperform on conviction shares will underperform continued rally plus they will suffer when prices turn oil/iron
– DB thinks spot #ironore can rise to US$170/tonne in coming weeks. Also thinks price can sink below US$120/tonne in second half
– Spot #ironore followed most other commodities down on Friday. Spot price fell by US$3.30 to US$154.90/tonne
– JP Morgan lines up its preferred A-REITs for the year ahead: GPT, WRT, SGP and DXS. Expects to witness another good year for the sector
– BA-ML finds risks for major correction risk assets high in H1. At present, only seasonality supports equities (may keep correction away)
– BA-ML states Oz equities NOT about to enter sustained earnings upgrade cycle, which poses big question mark in front of present prices/rally
– Observes Macquarie: since September share prices of BHP, RIO have risen by circa 29% while their valuations have fallen by an average of 7%
– Note Macquarie is working off AUD/USD at 1.04 for 2013 whereas most other stockbrokers have penciled in parity (1.00) for the year
– Macquarie insists momentum/price in #ironore unsustainable. Cuts AGO to Underperform and BHP, RIO to Neutral. BC Iron remains favourite
– NAB has changed #RBA cash rate call to 2.25% by late 2013 as Oz economy is perceived to be weaker than previously expected
– Think stocks went nowhere over the past decade? Think again: http://mot.ly/UB422g
– CS believes recovery in nickel price will prove unsustainable. Downgrades WSA and MBN to Neutral. PAN retained as sole Outperform
– Re-appraisal of Premier Investments (#PMV) by Credit Suisse: upgrade to Outperform with target lifted to $7.54 from $5.95
– DB lists #resources favourites: BHP, RIO, AWC, PNA, AQG and RRL. Sell rated are ILU, FMG and AGO (last two downgraded today)
– Foreign Policy: "America's energy boost is possibly the biggest geopolitical change to hit the world since China's rise"
– Spot #ironore price unchanged at 15 month high of US$158.50 a tonne
– Global survey by UBS suggests more companies will reduce guidance during upcoming reporting season though slightly less so than in Q4 2012
– Goldman Sachs forecasts average #ironore price US$140/t for calendar 2013. Analysts are surprised by strength of rally thus far
– BA-ML predicts #ironore price remain high in H1, weakness H2. Average price 2013 US$120/t. Average Q1 US$140/t. Preferred FMG, AGO, BCI, RIO
– UBS predicts #Macquarie (#MQG) will restructure and adopt "Lazard" model. Upgrade to Buy, target jumps to $40 from $28.50 $ASX #investing
– Deutsche Bank joins the chorus: spot #ironore is NOT going to stay at present levels. DB forecasts US$114/tonne average for calendar 2013
– There's no stopping spot #ironore, or so it seems. On Tuesday the price lifted by US$4.60 or 2.9% to a 15 month high of US$158.50 a tonne
– Howard Marks (Oaktree): What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end. Wise man = aggressive buying 2008/09, fool = now
– 1.00: Price/fair value ratio for all stocks rated by Morningstar's analysts. #Stocks as a whole are fully valued. http://ow.ly/gBJUe
– Experts (some) getting worried about equities having rallied too fast, too high http://tinyurl.com/b3hnea5
– BA-ML says #Macquarie (#MQG) has run too far ahead of earnings. Downgrade to Neutral. Target $34.50 (below current share price). New trend?
– CS believes #Fortescue (#FMG) share price rally has been too fast, too high. Downgrade to Neutral. Target price jumps to $5.50 from $4.50
– Everything has a price, says UBS. Downgrades #CommBank (#CBA) to Sell. 12mth price target $55 versus share price at $63+. Finally?!
– CBA says spot #ironore has probably run too hard. Price weakness or higher steel price should now follow. US$119/t est average 2013 too low?
– Five investments to avoid in 2013 http://tinyurl.com/ajwt799 via @newscomauHQ
– BA-ML anticipates reverse relationship commodities-China in 2013 versus 2012: positive H1, potentially negative H2
– Macquarie predicts (most) commodity prices may well peak in Q1 this year. China remains most important component. M&A activity may return
– Morgan Stanley trading call: Mirvac shares to outperform and rise in absolute terms over 60 days ahead
– Morgan Stanley trading call: Stockland shares will weaken in next 60 days. Anticipate weak interim results
– CIMB/RBS Morgans initiate coverage on Freedom Foods Group (FNP) with Outperform rating and $1.03 price target on strong growth ahead
– Deutsche Bank downgrades Sydney Airport to Hold following adverse ATO ruling. Valuation lifted to $3.45 on rolling forward valuation model
– S&P500 market has the most overbought readings for over a year with 73% of stocks now overbought and market approaching resistence.
– JP Morgan upgrades Ardent Leisure to Overweight, target raised to $1.53. Prospective 8.5% yield looks certain plus upside profit potential
– Citi predicts 2013 will be worse for Europe than was 2012. Suggests companies with large exposure poised to disappoint, prefers EM exposure
– GS ups AUD/USD forecast for 2013 above parity. Downgrades IPL to Neutral. Removes CRZ, SUN. FRE.NZ, REA from Conviction Lists
– Wien (continued): hard time for financials, Iran will become nuclear force, US corporate profits decline, equities lose 10%, Europe same 2/2
– Blackstone Byron Wien's Top10 2013 surprises lists a few eye-catchers: equities to disappoint, technology in doldrums but Apple OK 1/2
– Really? Spot #ironore price rose by US$4.90 or 3.3% to US$149.80 a tonne
– US Dow Jones +308pts; gold +$13; oil +$1.30; Aussie US105c; iron ore unchanged; OZ share futures +28pts. No economic data today.^CJ
– Spring 2010, summer 2011 and spring/fall 2012 all saw meaningful #equity declines. 2013 not going to be different, forecasts BTIG
– IHS Global predicts side-ways moves for #commodities in 2013; similar to what has transpired in 2012. Otherwise no big calls for year ahead
– Start 2013 with some invaluable extra knowledge: investment and finance books to read (any time, really) http://goo.gl/DNHwH
– Just when you thought 2013, post US Fiscal Cliff, was going to be plain sailing… Mauldin sees mayhem Japan and France http://tinyurl.com/az34gqm
– Spot #ironore price closed steady on Friday at US$139.40 a tonne, up US$4.00 over the week
– #Xmasrally? US indices are now en route for negative December performance. Peaked 3mth ago. Oz equities keep on grinding higher. Divergence!
You can add my regular Tweets on Twitter via @filapek
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