FYI | Aug 01 2014
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
I like to question the ruling logic that goads the herd, or at the very least stimulate independent thinking. There's a big difference between playing market momentum as a short term trader and trying to figure out what the best asset purchases are for longer term investing.
Since 2012 I maintain my own feed of quotes, comments, responses and market insights via Twitter. Not everyone is on Twitter, which explains the requests to make my Twitter items also available through the newsfeed on the FNArena website.
Usually I combine all Tweets from the week past in one weekly story. Below are my Tweets from the week past. Enjoy.
Investors can follow me on Twitter via @filapek
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– Australian investors (finally) ready to shift more funds into the share market – July Investors Sentiment Survey http://tiny.cc/160vjx
– From Macquarie (with conviction): 10 things we hate about #copper – or why we reiterate a short in 2H. Sees US$6,500/t by year-end #ausbiz
– Overnight action: down, down, down. #equities, #oil, #gold, base #metals – all down. #Ironore down US30c to US$95.60/t AUD US92.90c #ausbiz
– BA-ML warns: witnessing 2 classic signs of impending correction: fatigue of “leaders” and a rally in “laggards” (e.g. Japan, China) #ausbiz
– Westpac: US economy is yet to prove it can sustain above-trend growth for a prolonged period. Expect Fed on the side lines for some time yet
– Market observation: yesterday's laggards are today's risers. Fundies looking through short term clouds in search multi-years value #ausbiz
– BTIG's Dan Greenhaus sums up market mood: the Fed is very close to its goals and we wouldn’t be long bonds because of it
– CBA: do not see a risk of an oversupply in the national dwelling construction sector, because of “pent up” demand in housing market #ausbiz
– BA-ML notes US economy (finally) climbing out of what turned out a bigger hole as GDP data were revised lower in 2011 and 2012
-Trading Idea from Morgan Stanley: Rio Tinto shares to outperform its peers over next 15 days, following recent underperformance #ausbiz
– Danske Bank says market too complacent about Fed. Sees first rate hike in April 2015. Expected to support further decline in EUR/USD
– Overnight action: #equities mixed. #Oil down. #Gold down. Base #metals up. #ironore up US60c to US$95.90/t. AUD US93.25c #ausbiz
– Deutsche Bank observes consensus in Australia is predicting FY15 EPS growth 7%, low relative to history and to international peers #ausbiz
– UBS highlights BlueScope (BSL) as the come-back kid for the years ahead with strong profit growth and dividends to re-appear #ausbiz
– "It is only when a mosquito lands on your testicles that you realize, there is always a way to solve problems without using violence…"
– According to Elliott Wave analysis, US #equities are now inside a downtrend. ASX200 seen approaching a major highpoint and downturn #ausbiz
– Rule number one when constructing an investment portfolio? Don't forget your defence! My Weekly Insights http://tiny.cc/k2csjx #ausbiz
– Thorough. JP Morgan today released 4x individual reports on #QBE. Conclusion: must be closer to the end of this downgrade cycle #ausbiz
– UBS TA reports US #equities moving into make or break setup, signalling Summer Top may be in place, initial SP500 support at 1930 and 1890
– Overnight action: #equities retreat. #Oil mixed. #Gold lower. Base #metals down. #tin up. #ironore at US$94.30/t AUD US93.80c #ausbiz
– A reminder: corporate profits in Oz started to lag international peers ever since AUD/USD reached 0.95 and higher. It's now at 0.94 #ausbiz
– Deutsche Bank's longer term, post-peak, outlook for #insurers placed preference on laggard #QBE and that's gotta hurt today! #ausbiz
– Deutsche Bank calls it: Australian general #insurers to enjoy peak margins through to mid-2015 but then it's over #ausbiz
– BTIG's Dan Greenhaus: inclined to believe the next pullback, however large it may end up being, will present yet another buying opportunity
– Remarkable: JP Morgan's Resources vs Financials Timing Model continues to favour the latter #ausbiz
– Does this sounds attractive to you? AREITs on average offer 4% total return for year ahead, calculates BA-ML. Sector fully valued #ausbiz
– Feeling Lucky? Morgan Stanley remained cautious on #QBE with below consensus estimates and higher risk. Today, QBE has proven them correct
– Overnight action: #equities flat. #Gold flat. #Oil down. Base #metals mixed. #Copper flat. #Ironore unchanged at US$94.30/tonne #ausbiz
– I like it: Is this the dawn of the planet of the apps? (Grabbed it from a press release produced by Markson Sparks) #ausbiz
– BA-ML declares: the world is flat, at least when it comes to wage and price inflation dynamics. Fed can wait. Investors can relax #ausbiz
– Friday's price action: #equities down. #Oil up, #Gold up. Base #metals mixed. #Ironore up US70c to US$94.30/t. AUD US93.95c #ausbiz
– Goldman Sachs' conviction views: Bearish on iron ore, gold and copper, bullish on nickel, zinc, aluminium and palladium #ausbiz
– Raymond James: at market tops one expects individual investor to be extremely bullish,only time will tell if this time is different #ausbiz
– Trading tip from Morgan Stanley: Monadelphous poised for weakness as capex update shld reveal decline + guidance shd be cautious #ausbiz
– Morgan Stanley thinks market is underestimating challenges at Woolworths (WOW). Says FY14 likely to disappoint, incl guidance #ausbiz
You can add my regular Tweets on Twitter via @filapek
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