FYI | Dec 19 2014
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
I like to question the ruling logic that goads the herd, or at the very least stimulate independent thinking. There's a big difference between playing market momentum as a short term trader and trying to figure out what the best asset purchases are for longer term investing.
Since 2012 I maintain my own feed of quotes, comments, responses and market insights via Twitter. Not everyone is on Twitter, which explains the requests to make my Twitter items also available through the newsfeed on the FNArena website.
Usually I combine all Tweets from the week past in one weekly story. Below are my Tweets from the week past. Enjoy.
Investors can follow me on Twitter via @filapek
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– Observed: Morgan Stanley takes different view from its peers and declares golden era is over for Flight Centre. Now ex-growth #ausbiz
– Remarkable: just about every stockbroking analyst covering Flight Centre (FLT) sees a buying opportunity post sell-down (Buy ratings galore)
– CBA lowers AUD/USD forecast to 73c by June 2015, to 78c by March 2016 #ausbiz
– Strong USD likely to weigh on energy and precious metals in year ahead, reports ANZ. Supply constrained commodities to outperform #ausbiz
– I wonder how many "value investors" have been caught out by today's profit warning by Flight Centre (FLT)? #ausbiz
– Points out Morgan Stanley, ANZ Bank has highest exposure to mining companies, CBA second. To trigger higher loan losses? #ausbiz
– Santos balance sheet (the sequel): Macquarie suggests S&P leniency might allow company to "scrape through", oil prices pemitting #ausbiz
– Credit Suisse is now working off #ironore price forecast US$70-US$75/tonne until 2020. Longer term US$85/t will be needed for greenfields
– Morgan Stanley's favourite mining exposures for 2015 are nickel, copper and zinc. Says #China needs more metals, less bulks #ausbiz
– Macquarie expects market surplus for copper to shrink dramatically on the back of production scale backs. Deficit for 2016? #ausbiz
– Deutsche Bank's Top Picks for 2015 among mining stocks are… drum roll… RIO, BHP, AWC, IGO, SIR, SFR and PNA #ausbiz
– Credit Suisse calls Santos (STO) value-trap and non-investment grade in the absence of capital raising at least $2.5b, drops target to $7.75
– Reports NAB this morning: "We anticipate some signalling of possible rate cuts at the next RBA meeting in February" #ausbiz
– Warning from Dennis Gartman: Russian Ruble, stock market collapse are going to spark broader concerns. Capital destruction stunning #ausbiz
– Citi retains S&P500 target year-end 2015 at 2,200, mostly reflecting expected modest EPS increase next year #ausbiz #investing
– Macquarie suggests #China likely to experience yet another step downwards in economic growth momentum in the years ahead #ausbiz
– You don't say! Canaccord likes Sundance (SEA) and Lonestar (LNR) but admits sentiment towards shale oil might remain negative for longer
– Dennis Gartman points out term structure crude #oil futures continues to point towards weaker oil prices ahead #ausbiz
– Dennis Gartman repeats warning about technical picture for US #equities looking ominous. Sees Russian economy potential Black Swan #ausbiz
– Deutsche Bank thinks Fed hiking in 2015 to keep USD strong and crude #oil weak; both keeping a lid on corporate EPS growth #ausbiz
– NAB cuts estimated Brent average US$80/barrel Q4 2014, US$75/barrel in Q1 2015. Expects Brent to average US$80/barrel in 2015 #ausbiz
– UBS updated all-in calculations and concludes all #ironore producers likely to be cash positive (thanks to oil and AUD), but margins thin
– Citi analysts agree with company management: Santos (STO) can escape the need to raise fresh equity. All should be fine #ausbiz
– Let the word games begin… Considerable period, reports Macquarie, … of government deficits. Ouch! #ausbiz
– Big statement by CS on Crown (CWN): risk of prolonged VIP slow down, globally, puts company into ex-growth, no catalyst folder. Downgrade
You can add my regular Tweets on Twitter via @filapek
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