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Santos Setback: Back To Fundamentals

Following another unsuccessful bid for Santos, analysts review the company's outlook with a focus on valuation and dividend support.

-Santos' takeover bid scuppered for the third time
-Share price premium eases, focus returns to company fundamentals
-Analysts review valuation and dividend support
-Macquarie sees "extraordinary value" for long-term investors

By Mark Woodruff

The collapse of the $36.4bn non-binding takeover proposal for Santos ((STO)) has pulled the share price below $7 from near $8 earlier and shifted market attention back to fundamentals, with investors now focused on execution and timely delivery of key projects.

The US$5.76 per share indicative offer by the XRG consortium was withdrawn only days before the binding deadline.

Management stated the consortium, led by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company alongside the UAE sovereign wealth fund and US private equity group Carlyle, “would not agree to acceptable terms which protected the value of the potential transaction for Santos shareholders, having regard to the likely extended timeframe to completion and the regulatory risk associated with the transaction”.

XRG stated: “Following a comprehensive evaluation, and taking into account all commercial factors and the terms of the Scheme Implementation Agreement required by the Santos Board, the consortium has determined it will not be proceeding with the proposed transaction.”

Jarden interprets the reference to the Scheme terms as a likely sticking point for the consortium.

While the reasons for the collapse remain secondary, suggests the analyst at Morgans, this marks the third unsuccessful approach for Santos. Morgans suggests a third failure is likely to erode the market’s view Santos shares should trade on a corporate premium.

Previously there were the merger talks with Woodside Energy ((WDS)) in early 2024 and over 2018/19 UK-based Harbour Energy also made a bid.

Morgans expects near-term selling pressure as arbitrage capital exits, and on fundamentals Santos screens modestly overvalued. It’s recommended investors reduce exposure and rotate into peers offering clearer growth trajectories.

The suggestion made is failure of this latest approach to culminate in a formal offer is likely to dampen investor sentiment for an extended period.

In contrast, Macquarie now sees "extraordinary value" for long-term investors, noting Santos shares imply an oil price of US$51/bbl , a steep discount compared with Woodside Energy at US$60/bbl.

In time, Santos shares are expected to surpass the XRG offer price organically.

Ord Minnett believes XRG had no concerns regarding Santos’s portfolio valuation or rehabilitation liabilities, a point that should help underpin investor confidence.

Santos has a diversified portfolio of natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and oil assets.

The company’s operations span all major Australian hydrocarbon regions, with additional ventures in Papua New Guinea (PNG) and Alaska.

Australia’s largest domestic gas supplier and a key LNG exporter, Santos holds interests in multiple LNG projects, including the Gladstone LNG (GLNG) and Darwin LNG ventures in Australia, and the PNG LNG project in Papua New Guinea.

Where to from here?

According to Morgans, growth for the company now depends on the timely delivery of the offshore gas and condensate field located in the Timor Sea, Barossa, as well as Pikka, the onshore oil project in Alaska.

In late August, Santos announced Pikka Phase 1 was over 90% complete with all major processing modules and a seawater treatment plant were now installed on-site.

Both Barossa and Pikka are progressing well, assesses Morgans, but they are still subject to execution risk and softer oil and LNG markets.

Jarden expects management to now talk up the imminent start-up of Barossa, where first gas is expected by the end of September, as well as the accelerated start-up of Pikka.

Ord Minnett points to a range of positives including the Sockeye-2 oil discovery on Alaska’s North Slope, accelerated depreciation of Pikka assets in Alaska following passage of the OBBA bill in the US Congress, and stronger-than-expected drilling results at the Barossa field.

This broker also highlights favourable LNG pricing in new supply agreements with Japan’s Hokkaido Gas and Qatar Gas.

Some investors may shift focus to a potential ‘break-up’ of Santos, arguing the sum of its parts could exceed the whole, with stand-alone domestic gas and LNG businesses attracting higher valuations.

Unfortunately, with three failed approaches since 2018, Citi suggests investors may increasingly question whether Santos can attract another bidder, or whether portfolio rationalisation should be the next step, particularly in the context of the Australian domestic market.

While a break-up is conceivable, Morgans views this as unlikely given reserve constraints at both GLNG and DLNG.

Beyond Barossa and Pikka, Santos’s portfolio includes future options like the Narrabri onshore gas project in New South Wales and the next development phases of PNG LNG/Papua LNG.

Also, there is the potential revival of the Dorado offshore oil and condensate discovery in the Bedout Basin, Western Australia, in which Santos holds an 80% operating stake, plus further expansion in Alaska.

Valuation and dividend support?

Post the response to the bidding consortium's withdrawal, Santos is trading on a 2026 Enterprise Value/EBITDAX multiple of just 3.5 times, prompting RBC Capital to upgrade its rating.

The Australian average is 6.1 times and the broker’s coverage of US Exploration and Production companies trades on an average of 5.1 times.

Production at Santos is expected to rise by 34% in 2026, driven by new Barossa LNG volumes from the third quarter of 2025, and first oil from Pikka in the first quarter of 2026, with unit costs potentially falling.

Jarden estimates Santos’s underlying value at $7.05 per share based on a US$70/bbl Brent crude price assumption, or $6.39 at US$65/bbl.

The stock offers a 2025 dividend yield of around 6%, highlights Ord Minnett, rising to a compelling 10-16% through 2027–30 as new projects lift production and free cash flow.

On earnings multiples, it’s also noted Santos screens undervalued relative to sector peers.

Macquarie estimates a dividend yield of between 6.9-7.5% across 2026-27, with franking phasing in.

On RBC's projections, Santos’s revised capital management policy should support higher shareholder returns from 2027 onwards.

Management has pledged to return at least 60% of all-in free cash flow (FCF) to shareholders annually from 2027, up from the prior policy of 40% of operating cash flow (OCF) excluding growth capex.

Once gearing falls below the unchanged target range of 15-25%, payouts will rise to 100% of all-in FCF.

gas rig flare

Broker views on the outlook

Morgans has removed the corporate premium it previously applied to its valuation, which rebases the broker’s valuation-driven target price to $7.20 from $8.65. Its rating has been downgraded to Trim (between Hold and Sell) from Accumulate.

Equal-weight-rated Morgan Stanley has lowered its target to $7.00 from $8.88 expecting further near-term share price volatility before fundamentals such as free cash flow yield reassert, as investors work through uncertainties around domestic supply and decommissioning.

On valuation grounds, Ord Minnett upgrades to Buy from Accumulate.

Elsewhere, Buy-rated Citi does not rule out event-driven holders exiting after the failed bid. Should these flows unwind slowly amid buyer hesitation, it’s felt the stock could drift further below its fundamental value.

Citi analysts highlight the challenge of persuading investors that stronger cash flow visibility and progress in de-risking growth projects can help offset, at least in part, the absence of a takeover premium.

Jarden expects shareholders to be bruised by the abrupt withdrawal of the takeover offer and to question the board’s recent negotiation tactics. 

Key risks to this broker’s Underweight rating include stronger-than-expected oil and LNG prices, lower capital costs at Barossa and in Alaska, and faster project execution.

There are six daily monitored brokers in the FNArena database researching Santos including four equivalent Buys, one Hold, and Morgans' Trim rating. Note: UBS is yet to refresh its research following the withdrawn bid.

The average target has retreated to $7.80 from $8.70, implying nearly 16% upside to the $6.74 closing share price on September 23.

Outside of daily coverage, Jarden downgraded to Underweight from Overweight, while RBC Capital upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform with targets of $7.05 and $7.75, respectively.

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Weekly Update On LICs & LITs – 24-Sep-2025

Weekly update of Listed Investment Companies (LICs) & Listed Investment Trusts (LITs) on the ASX.

Listed Investment Company (LIC) is a listed investment vehicle that offers investors access to a diversified portfolio of shares in other companies also listed on the stock market. Also known as Listed Investment Trusts or Listed Managed Investments.

FNArena provides a weekly update of Listed Investment Companies (LICs) & Listed Investment Trusts (LITs) on the ASX in the form of a comparables table, courtesy to Vested Equities/Banyantree Investment Group.

PDF file attached. Guide below.

This service is provided for informative purposes only. It is not, and should not be treated as, a solicitation or recommendation to buy listed real estate stocks. Investors should always consult their financial adviser before acting on any information gleaned from this service. FNArena does not guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Note that while FNArena publishes this table weekly, prices are fluid and potentially changing throughout each trading day. Hence prices tabled may not reflect actual market prices at the time of reading.

Content included in this article is not by association the view of FNArena (see our disclaimer).

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FNArena is proud about its track record and past achievements: Ten Years On

Australian investors stay informed with FNArena – your trusted source for Australian financial news. We deliver expert analysis, daily updates on the ASX and commodity markets, and deep insights into companies on the ASX200 and ASX300, and beyond. Whether you're seeking a reliable financial newsletter or comprehensive finance news and detailed insights, FNArena offers unmatched coverage of the stock market news that matters. As a leading financial online newspaper, we help you stay ahead in the fast-moving world of Australian finance news.

Technical Views On Nasdaq, ASX200 & Gold

Tony Sycamore, Market Analyst, IG shares his technical views on the Nasdaq, ASX200, gold and crude oil, including technical updates below.

All material has been re-published with permission and does not by association represent FNArena’s views (we have none, we simply report).

First Up, Nasdaq100

The rally in the Nasdaq100 to new record highs has confirmed the Wave iv pullback from the mid-August high of 23,969 concluded in early September at the 22,977 low and that a Wave V within our preferred Elliott Wave framework is underway. 

The close on Saturday morning, above weekly trend channel resistance, currently near 24,200ish (weekly close) indicates there is room for the Wave V to extend towards 25,000ish possibly to 26,000 if FOMO really starts to play a role and grip markets.

Keep in mind that a Wave V high should then be followed by a corrective pullback.

NDX 3

ASX200

The heavy fall in the ASX200 at the start of this month and the past three weeks of consolidation has helped the ASX200 to work off overbought readings after its run of new highs in August. 

Providing the ASX200 remains below last week’s 8888 high, we expect the correction which targets the 8600/8580 area to continue.

If this correction plays out as anticipated, it will account for a neat -5% pullback from the 9054.5 record high, at which point fresh longs should be considered.

ASX 3

Crude Oil

WTI Crude Oil finished higher overnight at US$63.65/bbl, up 2.1% on escalating European geopolitical risks as Ukrainian drones continue to strike Russian oil infrastructure and with exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region remaining on hold.

There had been an assumption priced into the market that Kurdish exports, disrupted since March 2023 due to a Turkey-Iraq pipeline, dispute were set to return. However, those hopes appear dashed for now due to unresolved arrears.

Technically, crude oil appears comfortable in a trading range with the upper boundary defined by the early September US$66.03 high and reinforced by the 200-day moving average at US$66.95./bbl 

The recent double low at US$61.45, which crude oil tested and bounced from this week, defines the lower bound of the range. 

Gold

Gold’s gains have been supported by the Fed’s highly anticipated rate cut last week, with signals of further reductions to come, which is bullish for gold.

Additional support has come from safe-haven flows driven by European geopolitical concerns and fears over the Fed's independence, coupled with strong demand from central banks and private investors.

Gold 2

Technical limitations

If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts includedwe apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.

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FNArena is proud about its track record and past achievements: Ten Years On

Australian investors stay informed with FNArena – your trusted source for Australian financial news. We deliver expert analysis, daily updates on the ASX and commodity markets, and deep insights into companies on the ASX200 and ASX300, and beyond. Whether you're seeking a reliable financial newsletter or comprehensive finance news and detailed insights, FNArena offers unmatched coverage of the stock market news that matters. As a leading financial online newspaper, we help you stay ahead in the fast-moving world of Australian finance news.

Landis+Gyr and PLUS ES Announce Grid Edge Intelligence Partnership to Advance Australia’s Clean Energy Transition

Landis+Gyr's leading grid edge metering and computing technology provides unparalleled real-time data, paving the way for Edge AI grid to enhance customer engagement and improve operations efficiency.

SYDNEY, Sept. 24, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Landis+Gyr (SIX: LAND), a leading global provider of integrated energy management solutions is proud to announce it has secured its most comprehensive Grid Edge Intelligence solutions contract in Australia to date with PLUS ES, one of the country's leading metering services providers. This partnership represents a significant step forward in modernising Australia's electricity grid for a cleaner energy future.

David Maclean SVP, Landis+Gyr (left) and Rob Amphlett Lewis Group Exec, Plus ES (right)
David Maclean SVP, Landis+Gyr (left) and Rob Amphlett Lewis Group Exec, Plus ES (right)

 

The multi-year agreement will see the deployment of Landis+Gyr's Grid edge sensing meters with wireless technology, including apps and software services, delivering unparalleled real-time data to unlock actionable insights to both retailers and consumers.

Australia's energy transition is increasingly focusing on consumer-centric approaches to ensure widespread adoption and engagement. Millions of Australian households and businesses are already embracing the change to cleaner consumer energy resources (CER) technologies such as solar panels and batteries.

Since its inception in 2017, PLUS ES has been committed to enabling an affordable, resilient and net-zero future for all homes and businesses.

"This partnership represents an exciting step forward in our efforts to enable Australia's clean energy future," said Rob Amphlett Lewis, Group Executive at PLUS ES.

"By combining edge intelligence with high-resolution grid data, we're empowering consumers with more control to make informed choices about their energy use. For retailers, improved access to real-time data enhances customer engagement, enabling innovative pricing and product offerings while placing consumers at the heart of the clean energy transition. Ultimately, better information enables better choices, and that will help ensure we keep the costs of decarbonising our system down for Australian families and businesses."

Leveraging the same grid edge intelligence technology that is being deployed in mass across North America, the win reflects Landis+Gyr's deep commitment to innovation, sustainability, and partnership models. To date, Landis+Gyr has already deployed more than 6.8 million edge sensing meters, with more than 16.5 million under contract.

David Maclean, Senior Vice President of Asia Pacific, Landis+Gyr added, "We are honoured to partner with PLUS ES to shape the future of Australia's energy system. As Australia's energy mix becomes more decentralised and dynamic for a cleaner future, we need intelligent, scalable solutions that give us real-time insight and control. This Grid Edge Intelligence deployment will be instrumental in modernising our current grid with unparalleled real-time data allowing adoption of AI at the edge, making the grid more reliable, inclusive and responsive to the needs of tomorrow."

The Grid Edge Intelligence solutions will introduce future-proofed technology:

  • Edge sensing meters with unparalleled high-resolution data through secure wireless communication, empowering consumers in the energy transition
  • Open and scalable ecosystem that supports seamless integration of third-party Edge Apps
  • AI- ready to address the growing demands for grid resilience and enhanced customer engagement

The Grid Edge Intelligence solution awarded by PLUS ES also aligns with the Australian Energy Market Commission's (AEMC) recent proposed reforms to enable consumers access real-time data from their smart meters. Harnessing accurate intelligent data at the edge is essential to achieving a reliable, affordable, and equitable energy system.

About PLUS ES

PLUS ES delivers smarter energy solutions across Australia's eastern and southern states, managing over 1.6 million meters in the National Electricity Market. As one of Australia's leading metering providers, we are fully accredited as a Metering Coordinator, Meter Provider, Meter Data Provider, and Embedded Network Manager. Our customers, including major energy retailers, brokers, commercial clients, and embedded network operators, trust our full-service expertise and commitment to delivering industry-leading solutions. We're driving energy innovation with specialised design, construction and asset ownership capabilities in EV Charging Infrastructure (EVCI), Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS), grid connections, oil-pressured cable systems, high-voltage testing, and field services. Beyond this, we also deliver critical solutions in telecommunications infrastructure, helping build a more connected and resilient energy future. For more information, please visit our website at pluses.com.au

About Landis+Gyr

Landis+Gyr is a leading global provider of integrated energy management solutions. We measure and analyse energy utilization to generate empowering analytics for smart grid and infrastructure management, enabling utilities and consumers to reduce energy consumption. Our innovative and proven portfolio of software, services and intelligent sensor technology is a key driver to decarbonize the grid. Having enabled 9 million tons of CO2 savings in FY 2024 through our product offerings, Landis+Gyr manages energy better – since 1896. With sales of USD 1.7 billion in FY 2024, Landis+Gyr employs around 6,300 talented people across five continents. For more information, please visit our website www.landisgyr.com.

 

 

Australian investors stay informed with FNArena – your trusted source for Australian financial news. We deliver expert analysis, daily updates on the ASX and commodity markets, and deep insights into companies on the ASX200 and ASX300, and beyond. Whether you're seeking a reliable financial newsletter or comprehensive finance news and detailed insights, FNArena offers unmatched coverage of the stock market news that matters. As a leading financial online newspaper, we help you stay ahead in the fast-moving world of Australian finance news.

Rudi’s View: September, The Gift

rudi-views
Always an independent thinker, Rudi has not shied away from making big out-of-consensus predictions that proved accurate later on. When Rio Tinto shares surged above $120 he wrote investors should sell. In mid-2008 he warned investors not to hold on to equities in oil producers. In August 2008 he predicted the largest sell-off in commodities stocks was about to follow. In 2009 he suggested Australian banks were an excellent buy. Between 2011 and 2015 Rudi consistently maintained investors were better off avoiding exposure to commodities and to commodities stocks. Post GFC, he dedicated his research to finding All-Weather Performers. See also "All-Weather Performers" on this website, as well as the Special Reports section.

Rudi's View | 10:00 AM

In this week's Weekly Insights:

-September, The Gift
-Post-August Portfolio Maintenance
-Consensus Targets
-Defence Spending Has More Winners
-Ord Minnett's Conviction List
-Special Reports

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor

September, The Gift

Post August results season, the Australian share market is wrestling with a genuine identity crisis.

Should one buy more leverage to the AI megatrend? Are commodities now definitely back? Small caps, but not the discounted 'value' plays?

If anyone finds it difficult to answer such questions in a convincing manner then don't worry; judging by this month's price action, the market doesn't know the answers either.

The one visible result from the local indecisiveness is a net -2% loss for the month thus far while other markets continue to steamroll to fresh new record highs. The Hang Seng in Hongkong is up 5.85% in September while Tokyo's Nikkei225 has gained 5.45%.

Over in the US, the S&P500 is up more than 3% while the AI-driven Nasdaq Composite has added 5.48%. Even the more sobering Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is up 1.69% since August.

Bank of America's global funds manager's survey signals large institutions put a lot of additional money to work this month, with positive sentiment rising to the highest level in seven months.

And while concerns about elevated (and concentrated) price momentum for US markets is ever present, fund flows are directed towards Europe and emerging markets with global growth optimism on the rise.

In contrast, it is my observation a lot of commentary and predictions in Australia express discomfort with where indices and share prices are trading at; predictions and warnings about the potential for a significant sell-off have only become more common across social media platforms and elsewhere.

Of course, nothing is ever set in stone when it comes to financial markets and investing. US markets can still have that elusive downward correction --the AI trade is yet again overbought on technical indicators-- or Australia can catch up, or a combination of the two scenarios occurs.

For those with a little bit of cash at hand, and more confident about the ongoing duration of the current bull market than worried about the potential for stumbles in the shorter term, September can provide opportunities that are harder to identify in offshore markets.

From this perspective, September weakness is actually a gift for investors rather than the disappointment many seem to be focusing on.

September--converted-ai-315048064?

Post-August Portfolio Maintenance

While the ASX200 is only down -2%, below the surface many stocks have suffered greater losses.

A number of stocks that have my personal interest are now trading at double-digit percentage below freshly updated consensus price targets. In some cases this has been the result of upgraded targets on excellent results and a weakening share price.

I hope you can see why I am calling September weakness a gift?

Companies that come to mind include Car Group ((CAR)), Goodman Group ((GMG)), REA Group ((REA)), and ResMed ((RMD)).

Usually, the FNArena-Vested Equities All-Weather Model Portfolio comes out on top throughout local results seasons --it's one key factor behind my conviction about investing in quality companies-- but August 2025 did not play to the usual script and left behind an over-ruling sense of disappointment.

There was that once-in-a-generation disappointment from CSL ((CSL)), but a similar experience emanated from Woolworths Group ((WOW)), while unexpected operational weakness from Macquarie Technology ((MAQ)) and another leg downwards for shares in WiseTech Global ((WTC)) further added to the overall sour experience.

A number of positive performances elsewhere did not prevent share prices from weakening, like for the four companies I mentioned earlier. Put these two factors together and August has been, uncharacteristically, a rather negative experience for the All-Weathers.

Part of that experience is payback for the relative outperformance over the past three years, with portfolio rotation prominent and decisive last month, so I am not worried. This is simply how the cookie crumbles, as they say.

With my own assessment in mind (September is a gift), we've taken our time to digest the many re-assessments and reviews post August market updates. With 10% in cash, and looking to re-allocate for ongoing upside for the year ahead, it soon dawned a number of existing exposures could do with some added weight.

As such, most of this month's reshuffling of the portfolio involves adding additional exposure to the high quality growers that have been in the portfolio for a while, in some cases a long while, and in which our trust and confidence remains undiminished.

Bottom line: while regular reviews and rejuvenation remain part of portfolio maintenance, it doesn't always involve looking around for greener pastures elsewhere.

Paying subscribers have 24/7 access to my curated lists of All-Weathers and related sub-categories: https://fnarena.com/index.php/analysis-data/all-weather-stocks/

Consensus Targets

It's not a secret I am an avid reader and user of the data, insights and tools available on the FNArena website.

One of the tools permanently on my radar are consensus price targets, with the extra comment I always try to use them as intelligently as possible.

What do I mean with that last part of the prior sentence?

Ahead of financial result releases I bear in mind a positive result is likely to push targets higher (so I am not by definition worried when the share price rallies above targets beforehand).

I also pay attention to outliers. For example, Ord Minnett setting a price target of $57.20 only for Hub24 ((HUB)) weighs down the average of the seven brokers that cover this company. Remove the negative outlier and the average price target for Hub24 jumps to $112.50 from $104.58.

In other words: that share price seemingly trading above its consensus target is actually still below it.

Having said so, I do keep in mind what is Ord Minnett's main gripe about this company; it's a leveraged play on the current bull market. When share prices tumbled back in April, the Hub24 share price sank and might have fallen into the abyss had general sentiment soured for longer.

I am also well aware that a company experiencing a downgrade cycle will most likely trade at a discount to its price targets and those targets will reset at lower levels upon every negative market update.

This is why you won't find me getting excited about Aurizon Holdings ((AZJ)) or Healius ((HLS)), even when their share prices are exhibiting large discounts (apart from the fact that, in my option, these are truly low quality strugglers).

I am not your typical deep value investor, but this too is hardly a secret. Give me high quality with an elongated runway for growth any time, except at too high a valuation.

FNArena's consensus price targets assist me with assessing when/whether this might be the case.

Also; when shares are trading at a seemingly ridiculous distance to their target, you've most likely not spotted an as yet undiscovered opportunity. Something's wrong; it's most likely a trap.

See also the following:

-FNArena's Stock Analysis: https://fnarena.com/index.php/analysis-data/consensus-forecasts/stock-analysis/

-FNArena's Icarus Signal: https://fnarena.com/index.php/analysis-data/consensus-targets/the-icarus-signal/

-FNArena's R-Factor: https://fnarena.com/index.php/analysis-data/consensus-forecasts/the-rfactor/

-FNArena's Sentiment Indicator: https://fnarena.com/index.php/analysis-data/consensus-forecasts/sentiment-indicator/


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Australian investors stay informed with FNArena – your trusted source for Australian financial news. We deliver expert analysis, daily updates on the ASX and commodity markets, and deep insights into companies on the ASX200 and ASX300, and beyond. Whether you're seeking a reliable financial newsletter or comprehensive finance news and detailed insights, FNArena offers unmatched coverage of the stock market news that matters. As a leading financial online newspaper, we help you stay ahead in the fast-moving world of Australian finance news.

The Overnight Report: Awaiting August CPI

US markets took a breather with profit taking most apparent in technology stocks as Fed Chair Powell stated we are in "challenging times" and President Trump pushed back on looming shutdown negotiations with the Democrats.

The ASX200 rallied for a third straight day on Tuesday with futures pointing to a weak start ahead of the August CPI print at 11.30am AEST.

World Overnight
SPI Overnight 8852.00 - 31.00 - 0.35%
S&P ASX 200 8845.90 + 35.00 0.40%
S&P500 6656.92 - 36.83 - 0.55%
Nasdaq Comp 22573.47 - 215.50 - 0.95%
DJIA 46292.78 - 88.76 - 0.19%
S&P500 VIX 16.64 + 0.54 3.35%
US 10-year yield 4.12 - 0.02 - 0.56%
USD Index 96.86 - 0.11 - 0.11%
FTSE100 9223.32 - 3.36 - 0.04%
DAX30 23611.33 + 84.28 0.36%

Good Morning,

The Australian market closed higher, posting three days of gains with the ASX200 up 35pts or 0.4% to 8845.9. Consumer staples, REITS and Technology stocks fell. Today, the August CPI reading will likely determine the market's direction.

NAB expects the headline CPI indicator to remain steady at 2.8%yoy.

Key movers in the month will be a fall in electricity prices as rebates in NSW are reintroduced, though base effects from a year ago will see the yoy rate tick higher.

The release will also include updates on inflation for a range of market services – these were relatively benign in Q2 and are expected to remain moderate.

What happened overnight, NAB Markets Today Research

Global markets paused for breath as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered a measured address, reiterating the Fed’s dual mandate and the “challenging situation” posed by upside inflation risks and downside employment risks.

US equities retreated from record highs, with the S&P500 down -0.55% and NASDAQ off 0.-95%. Amazon and Nvidia led declines in megacaps, while IPO activity remained robust, with Klarna and Netskope leading September’s charge.

Newly public companies delivered strong returns, and Nvidia reassured clients about its OpenAI partnership. European equities fared better, with the Euro Stoxx600 up 0.28%, supported by positive German PMI data.

The latest PMI surveys painted a picture of regional divergence. In the Eurozone, the composite index edged up to 51.2, driven by a strong rebound in German services (52.5) and composite (52.4), offsetting ongoing weakness in French services (48.9) and manufacturing (48.1).

France’s recovery has stalled amid political uncertainty, while Germany’s services sector posted its strongest expansion in a year, though manufacturing slipped.

UK PMIs softened, with services falling to 51.9 and manufacturing to 46.2, as export demand slumped and firms cited weaker sales to the US and Europe.

S&P Global noted a litany of worries, including weakening growth and further job losses. In the US, flash PMIs showed manufacturing at 52.0 and services at 53.9, both in expansion but decelerating.

Regional surveys were mixed: Richmond Fed activity weakened, while Philadelphia Fed services picked up modestly but remain soft overall.

Powell’s speech in Providence reiterated the Fed’s current dilemma noting “Near-term risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside — a challenging situation”. 

He described policy as “modestly restrictive” and stressed the need to balance both sides of the mandate.

Powell avoided signaling the next move, instead emphasising data dependence. Governor Bowman struck a more dovish tone, warning the Fed may need to lower rates more quickly as labour market dynamism fades, and expressing confidence that tariff impacts on inflation will be short-lived. Atlanta Fed President Bostic remained vigilant on inflation, noting the need to stay on guard after years above target.

In a similar vein, Chicago’s Goolsbee advocated caution, suggesting rates could come down gradually if stagflationary pressures ease, but warned against aggressive easing with inflation still elevated.

President Trump delivered a strongly worded speech at the UN, criticising migration and climate policies, denying climate change, and questioning the UN’s effectiveness. He called for an end to “open borders” and lambasted European migration policy, while also referencing the wars in Gaza and Ukraine. 

On Russia and Ukraine, Trump supported NATO’s right to shoot down Russian aircraft violating airspace and expressed support for Ukraine to reclaim its territory, though he stopped short of promising security guarantees. On the Ukraine, Trump also emphasised the need for Europe to play a greater role.

US Treasuries rallied, with yields -2 to -4bp lower across the curve and a flattening bias. The 10-year yield ended at 4.10%, near the lows in an overnight range of 4.10-4.14, the decline in yields was supported by solid demand at the 2-year auction. 

Fed speak elicited muted reactions, with Powell reiterating the “no risk-free path” mantra. UK gilts outperformed Bunds, with 10-year gilt yields down 3bp to 4.68%, while Bunds closed unchanged at 2.75%.

The US dollar was little changed, oscillating in a tight range. EUR/USD consolidated near 1.18, supported by German PMI strength. The AUD is little changed relative to levels 24 hours ago, after trading to an overnight high of 0.6615, the pair now trades at 0.6599. 

Moving to commodities, gold surged to a fresh record above US$3,765/oz, buoyed by China’s push to become a custodian of foreign sovereign gold reserves. Oil rebounded, with WTI up 1.74% to US$63.73, as traders weighed the impact of Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and the risk of Moscow curbing diesel exports. European leaders signalled intent to end Russian oil purchases by year-end, adding to bullish sentiment.

In other news, President Trump is still not keen on government shutdown negotiations, demanding Democrats drop health care and Medicaid demands before agreeing to talks.

The risk of a prolonged government shutdown has increased, with potential negative implications for economic growth and market sentiment.

Bandwidth Then, Data Centres Now? Steve Sosnick, Interactive Brokers

One of the questions I’m asked most frequently is whether the current market environment reminds me of the internet bubble of the late ‘90s.  My short answer is "history doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes”. 

The enthusiasm for all things related to artificial intelligence is akin to that of the dawn of the internet, though many of the circumstances are quite different. That said, I am wondering if the frenzy to build ever-larger data centers is reminiscent of the race to add bandwidth in the prior era.

This is something I was pondering a few days ago when Oracle announced a huge boost to forward guidance that was largely propelled by a US$300bn, five-year data center commitment from OpenAI. 

When we first wrote about it on the morning of September 10th, I was not yet fully aware that the lion’s share of the guidance stemmed from that specific deal.  As I noted in an interview later that day,

… [Y]ou are correct in pointing out the risks inherent in the market’s complete revaluation of Oracle… Not only are Oracle stockholders crucially dependent upon the company meeting its guidance, but the broader market is, too.

This is indeed a monstrous commitment from a company (OpenAI) that burns prodigious amounts of cash and has reported in May to expect losses of US$44 billion before turning profitable in 2029. Remember, that was before they committed to spending US$300bn with Oracle. 

Spending of this magnitude can only be achieved if investors are willing to finance it. So far, that has hardly been a problem – investors have been eager to get a piece of the action from OpenAI and other companies in the AI space. But it became one in 2000 when investors began to concern themselves with profits over promise. 

I was reminded of this today somewhat by chance. I happened to be awaiting my turn for a media appearance when it turned out that the guest before me was the CEO of CoreWeave. His stock has been a phenomenon since going public earlier this year, but it too is a money burner. On a rolling four-quarter basis, the company lost over -US$900 million, and analysts project losses for at least the next two years, though at smaller magnitudes.  Yet I believe that if Coreweave announced a secondary offering tomorrow, it would be lapped up by eager investors. 

Will that be the case forever, especially after that CEO acknowledged that AI infrastructure will require trillions in investment? Can we assume that investors will be perpetually willing to finance investments of that magnitude even if the near-term returns are scant?

I recall something similar with bandwidth during the internet rollout. There was a huge rush to wire the country and the world for the coming internet era. That bandwidth eventually proved necessary and profitable, but it took more time and money than most investors expected during the heady rally. 

It also consumed some of the biggest names at the time. Two of them proved to be outright frauds, Enron and Worldcom, but others like Global Crossing and Northern Telecom also fell by the wayside. There was huge over-investment that needed to be reckoned with – expensively.

Now, far be it from me to accuse any company of being an Enron-style fraud. I have no evidence of that, nor do I want to portray even the slightest hint of casting that type of aspersion. But the AI-ecosystem is tightly bound, with Nvidia as the nexus. Their largest customers include names like Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta Platform, all of whom are indeed highly profitable and currently able to sustain a high level of investment into AI projects. But will they want to do so indefinitely? 

Nvidia in turn is a huge customer of Coreweave and Super Micro Computer. If there are cutbacks in Nvidia spending from the big boys, that will spill back into the smaller beneficiaries. There is more fragility than the market might recognize.

While I sincerely hope there are no Enrons or Worldcoms lurking out there, there very well might be some Global Crossings or Northern Telecoms lurking. It’s all great while the momentum is favorable, but it can turn ugly very quickly if not. 

And for now, as I literally just saw a headline that Nvidia plans to invest up to US$100bn in OpenAI, the music is still playing – loudly. 

For more reading on the same topic, see https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/09/18/openai-tech-boom-bubble-disruption/

Corporate news in Australia

-Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX)) announced the US centres for Medicare & Medicaid Services granted transitional pass-through payment status for Gozellix.

-Canyon Resources ((CAY)) is raising $200m at 26c per share for working capital at its Minim Martap project and increasing its stake in Camrail to 35% from 9.1%.

-UBS has been appointed to review the sale of Infratil’s ((IFT)) equity in medical imaging business Qscan, valued at circa $400m.

-Bevan Slattery is seeking an investor for specialised subsea cable owner and operator, Subco.

On the calendar today:

-AU Aug Inflation Indicator

-JP Sept PMIs

-US Aug Building permits

-US Aug existing home sales

-US Aug Mortgage App

-GENESIS ENERGY LIMITED ((GNE)) ex-div 6.45c

-IMDEX LIMITED ((IMD)) ex-div 1.00c (100%)

-KMD BRANDS LIMITED ((KMD)) earnings report

FNArena's four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/

Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures
Gold (oz) 3796.90 + 15.80 0.42%
Silver (oz) 44.27 - 0.05 - 0.11%
Copper (lb) 4.64 - 0.01 - 0.23%
Aluminium (lb) 1.20 - 0.00 - 0.31%
Nickel (lb) 6.85 + 0.04 0.53%
Zinc (lb) 1.31 - 0.00 - 0.35%
West Texas Crude 63.65 + 1.28 2.05%
Brent Crude 67.85 + 1.27 1.91%
Iron Ore (t) 105.49 0.00 0.00%

The Australian share market over the past thirty days…

market price bar

Index 23 Sep 2025 Week To Date Month To Date (Sep) Quarter To Date (Jul-Sep) Year To Date (2025)
S&P ASX 200 (ex-div) 8845.90 0.83% -1.42% 3.55% 8.42%
BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS
COH Cochlear Downgrade to Neutral from Buy Citi
EBO Ebos Group Upgrade to Neutral from Sell Citi
FMG Fortescue Upgrade to Neutral from Sell UBS
MIN Mineral Resources Downgrade to Neutral from Buy UBS
PEN Peninsula Energy Upgrade to Buy, High Risk from Hold Shaw and Partners
PME Pro Medicus Upgrade to Buy from Sell Citi
PTM Platinum Asset Management Downgrade to Hold from Buy Bell Potter
RRL Regis Resources Downgrade to Sell from Neutral UBS
STO Santos Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate Ord Minnett
VAU Vault Minerals Downgrade to Neutral from Buy UBS

For more detail go to FNArena's Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website.  Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)

(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author's and not by association FNArena's - see disclaimer on the website)

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Jacobi Partners with Charles River to Empower Scalable Model Portfolio Management

BRISBANE, Australia, Sept. 24, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Jacobi Inc. today announced its integration with the Charles River Investment Management Solution (Charles River IMS), supporting institutional asset managers and wealth managers in scaling their model portfolio capabilities.

The API-driven integration enables clients to seamlessly construct, customise, and manage investment models within Jacobi, and transmit them directly into Charles River IMS for implementation. This streamlines workflows and enhances operational efficiency across front-office teams.

The integration comes amid explosive growth in the use of model portfolios globally, as managers increasingly centralise, automate, and scale their investment processes. Jacobi's flexible architecture allows firms to design and manage bespoke model workflows, accommodating complex investment strategies and governance requirements.

In addition to model transmission, the integration extends to compliance checks, ensuring that portfolios adhere to regulatory and internal guidelines before execution. As part of the connection, Jacobi also integrates with the State Street Alpha Data Platform, providing clients with a turnkey data solution that simplifies access to critical investment data.

Jacobi's strength in flexible, client-specific modelling complements Charles River's robust order and execution management capabilities, creating a powerful end-to-end solution for modern portfolio management.

Tony Mackenzie, Co-Founder and CEO of Jacobi, commented:

"This integration marks a significant milestone in our mission to empower investment teams with scalable, truly customisable technology. By connecting Jacobi with Charles River and State Street Alpha, we're enabling clients to unlock new efficiencies and elevate their model portfolio strategies."

Steven Milanowycz, Head of Product Strategy at Charles River Development commented:

"The industry's rapid and growing adoption of customized model portfolios requires solutions that keep pace with the increased demands of investors and asset servicers. Our collaboration with Jacobi streamlines model construction and management for our clients and provides a robust and scalable solution to support their growth. Product customization is increasingly important to clients. Jacobi's innovative technology enables asset managers to allow for client specific flexibility on how investment mandates are implemented."

About Jacobi

Jacobi is a global investment technology provider for multi-asset investment teams. Capabilities include model portfolio construction, analytics, and client engagement. Its unique "open architecture" platform allows firms to tailor private deployments of the platform by integrating their own code, models, data, analytics, and applications.

Founded in 2014 with a strong foundation in institutional asset management, Jacobi is used by leading asset and wealth managers, pension funds, asset owners, and investment consultants worldwide. The firm continues to advance its capabilities, pioneering specialised AI agents within secure, client-specific environments - cementing its position as an industry leader.

About Charles River, A State Street Company

Investment and wealth managers, asset owners and insurers in over 30 countries rely on Charles River IMS to manage USD $59 Trillion in assets. Together with State Street's middle and back-office services, Charles River's cloud-based front office technology forms the foundation of State Street Alpha®. Charles River helps automate and simplify the investment process across asset classes, from portfolio management and risk analytics through trading and post-trade settlement, with integrated compliance and managed data throughout. Charles River for Private Markets helps solve complex data challenges for investors in private credit, real estate, private equity, and infrastructure. Charles River's partner ecosystem enables clients to access the data, analytics, application and liquidity providers that support their product and asset class mix. With more than 157% increase in headcount over the last 6+ years, Charles River serves clients globally offering 24/7 support. (Statistics as of Q3 2024. Assets are inclusive of clients using the platform for purposes of secondary compliance.)

Australian investors stay informed with FNArena – your trusted source for Australian financial news. We deliver expert analysis, daily updates on the ASX and commodity markets, and deep insights into companies on the ASX200 and ASX300, and beyond. Whether you're seeking a reliable financial newsletter or comprehensive finance news and detailed insights, FNArena offers unmatched coverage of the stock market news that matters. As a leading financial online newspaper, we help you stay ahead in the fast-moving world of Australian finance news.

The World’s Largest Shopping Festival “Taobao 11.11” is Coming!

Taobao Launches Localized 11.11 Promotions Across 20 Markets

SYDNEY, Sept. 24, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Taobao, one of the e-commerce platforms belonging to Alibaba Group, is expanding the world's largest and most successful shopping event, the "Taobao 11.11 Global Shopping Festival," bringing it to 20 markets this year. This expansion enables users across diverse markets and languages worldwide to participate in and experience the excitement of the Double 11 celebration like never before.

Taobao 11.11 Global Shopping Festival, the World's Largest Shopping Festival, Expands to 20 markets with Exclusive Local Offers

First launched on November 11, 2009, the 11.11 Shopping Festival has grown from its debut in China into the world's largest shopping event, surpassing even Black Friday in both scale and sales volume.

This year, the "Taobao 11.11 Global Shopping Festival" will expand to international markets, rolling out in 20 markets. The shopping festival will be available in five languages—Chinese, English, Malay, Thai, and Russian—and will feature a wide range of localized promotions and exclusive offers. With this expansion, consumers worldwide can now easily participate and share in the excitement of 11.11 festival.

  • Exclusive ¥1(approximately equal to 0.2 AUD) Offer for New Users: In 16 markets, new users placing their first order will be able to purchase selected items for just ¥1. More promotions will continue to roll out, ensuring that users can take home their favorite products at the best value.
  • Taobao Wonderland: Debuting this year in Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia, and Australia, Taobao launches a new interactive game that delivers a gamified shopping experience tailored specifically for local users. Available in Thai, Malay, and English, the activity allows users to check in daily to collect "gold beans," which can be redeemed for discounts on product price up to 50%.

Taobao Wonderland Poster
Taobao Wonderland Poster

  • Lower Free-Shipping Thresholds: Users in 12 markets will enjoy lower price thresholds for free shipping, making it easier and more affordable to purchase a wide selection of high-value cross-border products. During 11.11 Festival, Taobao will offer limited-time's zero-threshold's free shipping offer for Hong Kong, China and Macau, China users, with no minimum spend required.
  • High-Value Shipping Vouchers: In Singapore, Malaysia, China Taiwan and Australia, Taobao will distribute a limited number of high-value shipping vouchers daily, allowing users to purchase cross-border products with reduced delivery costs.
  • Localized Affiliate Marketing Programs: Local partners and individuals in each market are invited to join the affiliate program, earning up to 30% commission on selected product sales, with rates varying by product and brand. In addition, affiliates who successfully refer new users to complete their first purchase will receive an extra cash reward of USD 5–15 per new user. This initiative empowers local marketers to share in the growth and benefits of cross-border commerce alongside Taobao.

Taobao's Global Popularity Surges with Overseas New Users Doubling in Just Five Months

From April 1 to August 25, 2025, Taobao's overseas user base more than doubled, achieving over 200% growth in new international users in just five months. Meanwhile, its gross merchandise value (GMV) in global markets has maintained double-digit growth for five consecutive years. On April 16, 2025, the Taobao app ranked No.1 in shopping category downloads in 16 markets and placed in the top 10 in 123 markets worldwide. These achievements underscore the strong and growing global appeal of Taobao.

Taobao is The World's Most Extensive Cross-Border E-Commerce Platform

Taobao continues to expand its global reach, recently extending services to the five Central Asian markets, South Africa, and the United Arab Emirates. Today, Taobao covers more than 200 markets worldwide, delivering a fast, convenient, and trusted cross-border shopping experience to consumers everywhere. Boasting over one billion consumers shopping on the platform, Taobao is recognized as the e-commerce platform offering the widest selection of products globally. With billions of items available, Taobao enables users from diverse markets to find products that match their cultural preferences, lifestyles, and procurement needs.

According to Taobao's insights into global cross-border shopping behavior, consumers' key demands center on five lifestyle scenarios: hobby-driven consumption, unique finds, smart living, lifestyle aesthetics, and fashion trends. Leveraging its strengths in categories such as sports and outdoor gear, auto parts, collectibles and toys, 3C digital products, home and furniture, as well as apparel and accessories, ensures that it can meet the diverse preferences and needs of consumers worldwide.

Taobao Continues to Enhance Localized User Experience Across Global Markets

To meet the diverse needs of consumers worldwide, Taobao continues to enhance its cross-border shopping experience by establishing a comprehensive service system covering four core areas: logistics, payment, returns and exchanges, and customer service. This ensures that consumers, wherever they are, can enjoy a convenient, secure, and seamless shopping journey.

  • Logistics Upgrades: Tailored delivery options with varying speeds are now available by market. Direct shipping services currently cover 20 markets, while 12 global sites offer free cross-border shipping, making international shopping more convenient than ever.
  • Diverse Payment Options: Supports 29 currencies and offers payment solutions adapted to local habits. In addition to Alipay, international e-wallets, and credit cards, new options such as WeChat Pay HK and Octopus Card in China Hong Kong, as well as cash-on-delivery in China Taiwan, further lower the thresholds for cross-border shopping.
  • Easy Returns and Exchanges: Local return services are now available in 12 markets, with flexible options such as doorstep pickup and convenience store drop-off. In China Hong Kong and China Taiwan, Taobao has also introduced cross-border returns, enabling consumers to send products directly back to Mainland China, ensuring a worry-free return process.
  • AI Customer Service: Real-time multilingual translation enables seamless communication in Chinese, English, and others language. This intelligent support helps users overcome language barriers and ensures timely assistance, safeguarding consumer rights worldwide.

This year, the Taobao 11.11 Shopping Festival will expand to 20 markets, marking a new milestone in the global reach of the world's largest shopping festival. The expansion also highlights Taobao's close collaboration with local ecosystem partners across different countries and regions, projecting a younger and more international brand image that makes it easier than ever for consumers worldwide to take part in the 11.11 celebration.

Australian investors stay informed with FNArena – your trusted source for Australian financial news. We deliver expert analysis, daily updates on the ASX and commodity markets, and deep insights into companies on the ASX200 and ASX300, and beyond. Whether you're seeking a reliable financial newsletter or comprehensive finance news and detailed insights, FNArena offers unmatched coverage of the stock market news that matters. As a leading financial online newspaper, we help you stay ahead in the fast-moving world of Australian finance news.

Today’s Financial Calendar – 24-09-2025

Daily Market Reports | 8:15 AM

Significant Scheduled Events For 24 September, 2025

By Danielle Ecuyer


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Australian investors stay informed with FNArena – your trusted source for Australian financial news. We deliver expert analysis, daily updates on the ASX and commodity markets, and deep insights into companies on the ASX200 and ASX300, and beyond. Whether you're seeking a reliable financial newsletter or comprehensive finance news and detailed insights, FNArena offers unmatched coverage of the stock market news that matters. As a leading financial online newspaper, we help you stay ahead in the fast-moving world of Australian finance news.

Hungry for Travel: How Food is Shaping Holiday Home Stays in Asia Pacific

Booking.com's latest research dishes up new food-led trends and insights, revealing Asia Pacific's growing appetite for holiday homes as they travel with their taste buds

SYDNEY, Sept. 24, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Booking.com's 'Taste of Home Asia Pacific' research reveals that food is playing a central role in shaping the holiday home experience in 2025. Travellers across the region are increasingly selecting holiday homes that offer accessibility and freedom to dine, host and/or cook in unique, authentic spaces and destinations. 

For Australians, food significantly shapes travel, with 82% selecting destinations based on culinary preferences Holiday homes are a chosen accommodation type for this trip, with 97% of Aussies saying they  alter their cooking and eating habits whilst travelling. They frequent local markets (85%), cook local dishes (34%), try new appliances (33%) and experiment with new recipes (34%).

As travellers seek more meaningful and personalised stays, the research identified four 'taste trends' shaping the culinary holiday home travel experience

     1. THE NEW HEAD CHEF IN THE HOLIDAY HOME
The "chef" role in holiday homes is shifting. Only 13% of Australian travellers reported mum as the holiday cook. Younger generations are now confidently taking the lead, blending family recipes with new ideas; Gen Z (38%) most often cooks family recipes.

     2. HOLIDAY KITCHEN PERSONAS
Four distinct holiday kitchen personalities emerged in the research for travellers booking holiday homes foodies stays

  • The comfort-driven Traditionalist
  • The bold Experimenter
  • The laid-back Minimalist
  • The ever-entertaining Socialite

     3. TROLLEY TOURISM
Across the Asia Pacific, holiday homes are fueling a rise in "trolley tourism," where visits to local food markets, seasonal foodie festivals, and trendy supermarkets are becoming part of the travel experience. 88% of Aussie travellers enjoy visiting local  food markets on holiday, a figure that rises to 96% among frequent holiday-home bookers.

     4. PORTABLE PANTRY
Travellers are bringing their kitchens with them when booking homes. This makes holiday kitchens familiar while allowing destination exploration. 80% of Australians bring food or cooking items, including tea/coffee (38%), wine (25%), sauces (24%), coffee machines (13%), and BBQ tools (13%).

For more information about Booking.com's Taste of Home Asia Pacific and to download the report please visit here.

Australian investors stay informed with FNArena – your trusted source for Australian financial news. We deliver expert analysis, daily updates on the ASX and commodity markets, and deep insights into companies on the ASX200 and ASX300, and beyond. Whether you're seeking a reliable financial newsletter or comprehensive finance news and detailed insights, FNArena offers unmatched coverage of the stock market news that matters. As a leading financial online newspaper, we help you stay ahead in the fast-moving world of Australian finance news.