In this week's Weekly Insights:

-Ask FNArena
-Extreme Bifurcation Ahead Of August
-For Financial Advisors Ready to Make an Impact

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

Ask FNArena

Tuesday, the 29th of July at 4.30pm.

Put it in your agenda to participate in FNArena's online Zoom meeting, featuring your Editor ready to answer your questions.

We welcome questions in advance though there will be opportunity to ask on the day and during the session, of course.

Keep an eye out for follow ups in Weekly Insights and Rudi's View stories.

Yes, there will be a video recording to view and listen afterwards.

Send your questions to Editor@fnarena.com

Extreme Bifurcation Ahead Of August

There was a time when 13.80% total return for the financial year would be welcomed by all and sundry as a pleasant outcome, but not so in mid-2025 when the strong rally in CommBank ((CBA)) shares has been responsible for 38% of those returns.

Prospects for CommBank and the broader bank sector in general have improved throughout the year, but only slightly so. As the share price rallied and kept on rising (up 22% in the June quarter alone) pushing the implied forward-looking dividend yield to a paltry 2.8%, many domestic shareholders have been selling their exposure.

The rise and rise of CommBank relative to the rest of the ASX200 (now weighing 12% of the index) has triggered lively debates among Australian investors, and still does.

Some investors have sold exposure and recycled the proceeds into other, cheaper-priced  major bank shares, but UBS for one doesn't think this will prove the best protection against CBA's coming back to earth - something that surely must happen at some point?

Whatever will pull back the CommBank share price is likely going to be a sector-wide impact, UBS suggested a few weeks ago. Meaning: it'll impact the rest of the sector too, in all likelihood.

Indeed, share prices in financials broadly, and in banks specifically, have performed well in FY25 with three major banks ending up in the Top Five of highest contributions for the index since mid last year.

CommBank shares simply outclassed everyone and everything with a total return of... wait for it... 49.8%, adding more than three times more to index gains than number two, Westpac ((WBC)).

As to whom is responsible, the second half of last year featured steady buying orders from superannuation funds while in 2025 large US institutions seeking shelter from potential US tariff impacts have compensated for local sellers.

For more background, investors might revisit some of FNArena's recent background stories and explanations:

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/07/18/in-brief-sks-technologies-banks-qpm-energy/

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/06/10/geopolitical-hedging-a-boon-for-commbank/

The Local FY25 Top Ten

It is likely more of Australia's large cap bluechips with similar tariff agnostic characteristic might have enjoyed some of the unexpected international fund inflows as well.

The Top Ten of highest index contributors for the twelve months to June 30th is as follows:

1. CommBank
2. Westpac
3. Wesfarmers ((WES))
4. Telstra ((TLS))
5. National Australia Bank ((NAB))
6. Brambles ((BXB))
7. Macquarie Group ((MQG))
8. QBE Insurance ((QBE))
9. Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
10. Evolution Mining ((EVN))

Combined, these ten stocks represent 76.6% of all index returns in FY25.

Equally noteworthy: gold miner Evolution Mining shares needed to rally by 127.7% to make it into the Top Ten, just.

That list, and its importance for the local market, serves as a timely reminder for just how polarised the share market has been, and still is.

While large caps such as BHP Group ((BHP)), CSL ((CSL)) and Woodside Energy ((WDS)) have been prominent laggards throughout the year past, the market segment that has mostly disappointed investors is without any doubt the legion of small cap companies.

The (Ongoing) Small Cap Challenge

This market polarisation in favour of larger cap companies is not new and neither has it been ASX-specific.

A recent US markets update by Jason Zweig at the Wall Street Journal revealed the larger-cap S&P500 has returned on average 13.2% since 2014 while the Russell2000 index of smaller cap companies has lagged severely with an annual return of 7.2% only.

That is one mighty gap between the two opposing ends of the market in terms of company size.

For good measure: in Australia, the technology sector has mimicked its offshore peers by outperforming all other sectors locally, but despite large cap representatives such as Block ((XYZ)), Pro Medicus ((PME)), REA Group ((REA)), WiseTech Global ((WTC)) and Xero ((XRO)) its index relevance remains quite benign still.

Equally worth highlighting is that Australia's sweet spot --the MidCap50-- remains the best performing segment, including a total return of 16.45% in FY25.

Most of the pain/disappointment locally mimicks the US with the Small Ordinaries returning 12.26% in FY25, an annualised 10% for the past three years, on average 7.37% over five years and only 7.64% on average in total return for the decade past.

Australia being one of the world's commodities centres, some of the small cap underperformance is likely related to the many explorers and developers in mining and energy, but that can only be a partial explanation, at best.

Also worth noting: the relative gap between banks and resources in Australia has blown out to a multi-year high (market weight of 35.2% versus 19.5%).

A deeper dive below the surface of today's share prices and index level, into FNArena's proprietary market data, confirms just how polarised the Australian share market is; possibly a lot more than most investors, including myself, realise.

Comparing share prices with price targets set by stockbroking analysts is far from a perfect guide --both can change instantly and dramatically-- but for the general purpose of assessing today's status for the ASX and painting a general picture, it can enlighten and explain a lot that otherwise remains hidden underneath biased opinions and outdated perceptions.

FNArena's forward-looking data universe currently includes 531 ASX-listed companies, of which only 102 share prices are trading above their consensus target.  This number will be smaller post Monday's general off day.

Ahead of results releases in August, we should be keeping in mind that forecasts will be updated in the weeks ahead, with potential positive impact on valuations and price targets.

If we raise the bar to share prices trading at least 5% above target, that number of elevated looking share prices shrinks to 70.

This is still a sufficiently large selection for investors to pay attention to, and it includes all the usual suspects, including the Top Ten mentioned, as well as Netwealth Group ((NWL)), Megaport ((MP1)), Eagers Automotive ((APE)), Harvey Norman ((HVN)), Origin Energy ((ORG)), and Charter Hall ((CHC)).

Of course, there are also plenty of small and micro cap stocks in this group, including Opthea ((OPT)), Arafura Rare Earths ((ARU)), Alcidion Group ((ALC)), HighCom ((HCL)), and Doctor Care Anywhere ((DOC)). I'm specifically not mentioning those under merger or take-over interest.

Not all of these elevated-looking share prices are doomed for immediate disaster, of course, but 531 stocks minus 102 still leaves us with nearly 80% (429 companies) that cannot be accused of trading on fumes and over-inflated market momentum, not until that implied profit disappointment comes out or analysts downgrade their target (usually in response to operational disappointment).

Obvious question: with such a heavily lopsided market set-up, is it still justified to worry about the index trading on a higher-than-usual valuation?

History suggests the answer is 'yes' as lower valued shares might not necessarily hold their ground if/when the popular winners sell off, but it does suggest there's potential for outsized investment returns if positive earnings and/or market momentum spreads out to larger parts of the local bourse.

For good measure, sustained market momentum for ASX-listed companies splintered into polarised extremes during the global covid pandemic and has to date never recovered from it.

Calls for a decisive catch-up by smaller cap companies to their outperforming larger peers have been made ever so regularly over the past three-four years, both internationally and in Australia, but here we are mid-year 2025 and smaller cap underperformance and market polarisation remain as prominent as ever.

Maybe not getting carried away with too high expectations simply because share prices look under-priced and have lagged sustained market momentum to date might be the best approach at this stage?

The August results season is still expected to see the average earnings per share for the ASX200 retreat for a third successive year, to end up -18% below the peak of FY22.

This suggests there remains plenty of room for disappointments next month, even though forecasts are signalling better times might be ahead and some forecasters believe corporate Australia might --finally-- enjoy an upgrade cycle throughout FY26/FY27.

One can but wonder if that is the prerequisite requirement to see momentum for the Australian share market broaden out significantly in the months/years upcoming.

Should we all send Christmas cards to Michele Bullock at the RBA and to federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers?

(Don't think Trump cares much about what happens in Australia).

Digging Into The 80%

Below are some selective snippets from the 80% of share prices for whom trading at or above broker price targets has remained a bridge too far (a starting point for further research and assessment, maybe?).

In the category of absolute bottom-of-the-barrel, smashed-to-smithereens, seemingly crazily undervalued disappointments, we find the likes of:

-Hastings Technology Metals ((HAS))
-Bowen Coking Coal ((BCB))
-Australian Vanadium ((AVL))
-Cettire ((CTT))
-Playside Studios ((PLY))
-Step One Clothing ((STP))

Stocks trading with suggested upside potential between 50%-100%:

-Mitchell Services ((MSV))
-Macquarie Technology ((MAQ))
-DigiCo Infrastructure REIT ((DGT))
-Vault Minerals ((VAU))
-Bannerman Energy ((BMN))
-Viva Leisure ((VVA))
-PolyNovo ((PNV))
-Cosol ((COS))
-Austin Engineering ((ANG))
-Avita Medical ((AVH))

Stocks trading with suggested upside potential between 30%-50%:

-Regal Partners ((RPL))
-Elders ((ELD))
-Macmahon Holdings ((MAH))
-Worley ((WOR))
-Guzman y Gomez ((GYG))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))
-Southern Cross Electrical Engineering ((SXE))
-Lindsay Australia ((LAU))
-NextDC ((NXT))
-Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX))

Stocks trading with suggested upside potential between 10%-30%:

-Car Group ((CAR))
-Virgin Australia ((VGN))
-BlueScope Steel ((BSL))
-Collins Foods ((CKF))
-Paladin Energy ((PDN))
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))
-Seek ((SEK))
-AGL Energy ((AGL))
-Flight Centre ((FLT))
-GQG Partners ((GQG))

Stocks trading at less than -10% from their target:

-Woodside Energy ((WDS))
-Challenger ((CGF))
-Waypoint REIT ((WPR))
-Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI))
-Iluka Resources ((ILU))
-Orica ((ORI))
-Woolworths Group ((WOW))
-EVT Ltd ((EVT))
-NRW Holdings ((NWH))
-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))

More than two decades of experience suggests this kind of information should not be interpreted in a static, set-in-stone manner.

A positive surprise in August can significantly widen upside potential, just as a negative development can work its magic to the downside.

A hefty discount might be the market telling us the risk level is too high and probably skewed to the downside, just as a big premium might signal upgrades are coming.

Post-Covid Is Different

The extreme polarisation in market momentum is equally reflected in stockbroker ratings for individual stocks.

Historically, a share market near an all-time high corresponds with more Neutral/Hold ratings and less Buys, but not in the post-covid era as clearly shown in the graphic below.

(The blue line represents the total Buy ratings).



Trading on a forward-multiple of 18.9x forecast earnings, the ASX200 is trading more than two standard deviations from its historical average of 14.7x.

Even if we limit today's comparison to the past ten years (accepting that share price averages are higher in more recent times than they have been throughout the preceding decades) the current situation still compares unfavourably with an average multiple of 16.1x.

Possible explanations/justifications include better growth momentum ahead, also on the back of more rate cuts from the RBA, ongoing strong growth momentum for the AI megatrend, and a general broadening of AI benefits to broader sections of the economy (higher margins, more efficiency).

Many of these assumptions will be put to the test in August. Consensus forecasts are currently indicating EPS growth of circa 5% for the year ahead (FY26), followed by another near 8% in FY27.

Investors will be keeping their fingers crossed that outlook will not deteriorate in the same manner as it has done throughout all three years post FY22.

FNArena publishes a monthly update to the Australian Super Stock Report, which facilitates assessments such as the ones mentioned in today's story. This report is included in paying subscriptions (6 and 12 months) and can be downloaded from the website.

As per tradition, FNArena will keep a close tab on corporate results in August.

For the coming two weeks or so, FNArena's Results Monitor will still display its overview of results released post February: https://fnarena.com/index.php/reporting_season/

Next week's edition of Weekly Insights shall dig deeper into expectations and forecasts ahead of August results for sectors and individual companies.

For Financial Advisors Ready to Make an Impact

New Advisor Add-On: Built for Speed & Simplicity

Over the past year, we collaborated with a select group of financial advisors to co-create a smart new tool that makes navigating FNArenas insights faster and more intuitive.

Its already streamlining workflow and could be a perfect fit for your practice.

Contribute Your Perspective: Become an FNArena Contributor

We also welcome financial advisors who enjoy writing or commentary to share their knowledge with our growing audience of self-managed investors.

Whether it's a market view, a professional story, or insight from the front lines if youve got something to say, well help amplify it.

Email us at Editor@FNArena.com

Model Portfolios, Best Buys & Conviction Calls

This section appears from now on every Thursday morning in a separate update on the website. See Rudi's Views for the archive going back to 2006 (not a typo).

FNArena Subscription

A subscription to FNArena (6 or 12 months) comes with an archive of Special Reports (21 since 2006); examples below.

(This story was written on Monday, 21st July 2025. It was published on the day in the form of an email to paying subscribers, and again on Wednesday as a story on the website).

(Do note that, in line with all my analyses, appearances and presentations, all of the above names and calculations are provided for educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views are mine and not by association FNArena's see disclaimer on the website.

In addition, since FNArena runs a Model Portfolio based upon my research on All-Weather Performers it is more than likely that stocks mentioned are included in this Model Portfolio. For all questions about this: contact us via the direct messaging system on the website).

Update on changes to and revisions of analysts’ Best Ideas and Conviction Calls, as well as Model Portfolio compositions.

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

We was wrong.

It's the kind of phrase protagonists say in American movies and that makes viewers like myself squirm, but then again, apparently 'dove' instead of 'dived' is also permitted in the land of Kaiser Donald J.

Macquarie's latest strategy update on Australian equities, released earlier today on Thursday morning wouldn't use American colloquialisms, of course, but the strategists might have just as well, because that is the key over-riding message expressed to their clientele.

Up until today, Macquarie strategists have been warning about too much exuberance in equities, advocating a cautious and defensive portfolio set-up while expecting this year's runaway stock market train to come unstuck.

But it hasn't happened.

Today's mea culpa suggests the focus has been too much on PE expansion and the RBA holding out on rate cuts. Outside of Australia, central banks have been cutting rates at a pace nearly never witnessed outside of economic recession, and it is translating into growth resilience and momentum picking up.

Add a just as rare technology boom and this year's cocktail suggests the world is trending towards a better place, not one-way into malaise and struggles.

Better times ahead means the Model Portfolio was too defensively positioned. Macquarie strategists have responded by adding more exposure to Technology and AI, and less to bond proxies (bond yields might not weaken as much as earlier thought).

The following stocks have been added to the Model Portfolio:

-NextDC ((NXT))
-Seek ((SEK))
-Paladin Energy ((PDN))

These additions compliment the likes of Xero ((XRO)), Megaport ((MP1)) and Goodman Group ((GMG)).

For more cyclical exposure, the Portfolio now also owns Lovisa Holdings ((LOV)) and Web Travel Group ((WEB)). Also added has been Challenger ((CGF)) on anticipation of a more limited fall in bond yields.

Exposures that have been reduced: Transurban ((TCL)), GPT Group ((G:PT)) and James Hardie ((JHX)).

On the strategists' own assessment, if their revised outlook proves correct, Australian companies should see earnings upgrades in FY26.

That will be the logical litmus test, both for Macquarie's about-face and for current elevated PE ratios.

Global equity strategists at UBS remain on the lookout for downgrades to current growth forecasts, and for decelerating economic indicators while the Federal Reserve will only be ready to deliver its next rate cut in September.

UBS thus suggests equity markets might find the going a little more challenging, with the extra comment that any pullback larger than -5% would come as a surprise.

Weakness should still be treated as an opportunity to buy more shares, in UBS's view (being relatively relaxed about potential impacts from tariffs).

Investors have rightly learned to buy the dip, say the strategists, with US corporate profits still expected to grow (albeit more slowly), the AI theme still booming and USD weakness supporting nearly 25% of S&P500 revenues that are generated internationally.

****

Staying with Macquarie, the small caps desk has released its favourites ahead of the August results season. The list of Best Picks consists of:

-Aussie Broadband ((ABB))
-Amotiv ((AOV))
-AUB Group ((AUB))
-Alpha HPA ((A4N))
-Bega Cheese ((BGA))
-Capstone Copper ((CSC))
-Codan ((CDA))
-Genesis Minerals ((GMD))
-Iluka Resources ((ILU))
-Integral Diagnostics ((IDX))
-Harvey Norman ((HVN))
-Jumbo Interactive ((JIN))
-Lovisa Holdings ((LOV))
-Maas Group ((MGH))
-Megaport (( MP1))
-Monadelphous ((MND))
-Neuren ((NEU))
-Nick Scali ((NCK))
-oOh!media ((OML))
-Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI))
-Qualitas ((QAL))
-Reliance Worldwide ((RWC))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))
-Summit Minerals ((SUM))
-Universal Store Holdings ((UNI))
-Ventia Services ((VNT))
-Web Travel Group ((WEB))

Let me share one personal pleasure: every time I write up these lists, I challenge myself to add full company names, correct spelling and all, to each ASX code to check how up to date my knowledge remains.

Today I am slightly disappointed. I failed on five codes, including for Maas Group! Must have had a temporary blackout.

****

One extra update from Macquarie on Thursday morning: the healthcare desk expressed their favouritism for CSL ((CSL)), ResMed ((RMD)), Integral Diagnostics ((IDX)) and Neuren ((NEU)).

Least preferred are Cochlear ((COH)) and Ansell ((ANN)).

****

Bell Potter's general update on ASX-listed agricultural stocks shows the following Buy-rated preferences:

-Australian Agricultural Company ((AAC))
-Bega Cheese ((BGA))
-Elders ((ELD))
-Noumi Ltd ((NOU))
-Nufarm ((NUF))
-Rural Funds ((RFF))
-Select Harvests ((SHV))

****

Stockbroker Morgans, previewing August results, has High Conviction for positive performances from the following resources companies:

-BHP Group ((BHP))
-Woodside Energy ((WDS))
-Amplitude Energy ((AEL))
-Karoon Gas ((KAR))

Sticking with Morgans, the broker's favourites in the local Technology sector are WiseTech Global ((WTC)) and Megaport ((MP1)), with Car Group ((CAR)) and Seek ((SEK)) the favourites in Media, Superloop ((SLC)) in Telecom and Light & Wonder ((LNW)) among gaming stocks.

Morgans has also Buy ratings for Xero ((XRO)) and NextDC ((NXT)).

For exposure to non-bank financials, the broker's favourites are Generation Development ((GDG)), MA Financial ((MAF)), and Tyro Payments ((TYR)).

****

Analysts at Morgan Stanley like to identify High-Conviction opportunities both ahead and after reporting seasons.

This time three ideas have been identified throughout the Asian coverage. One of these is ASX-listed: Xero ((XRO)).

****

Jarden's monthly update on Australia's small caps ("emerging companies") highlights 18 Best Ideas, including the following Key Picks considered offering the highest potential return, in order of projected total investment reward:

-GQG Partners ((GQG))
-Dicker Data ((DDR))
-Universal Store Holdings ((UNI))
-Qualitas ((QAL))
-EVT Ltd ((EVT))
-Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI))
-Temple & Webster ((TPW))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))

The other ten stocks selected:

-Aussie Broadband ((ABB))
-Arena REIT ((ARF))
-Genesis Energy ((GNE))
-Harvey Norman ((HVN))
-Integral Diagnostics ((IDX))
-Karoon Energy ((KAR))
-Michael Hill ((MHJ))
-Pepper Money ((PPM))
-Symal Group ((SYL))
-Vault Minerals ((VAU))

Since the prior update in early June, no stocks were removed. Both Aussie Broadband and Pinnacle Investment Management are new inclusions.

****

Analysts at Moelis remain positive on ASX-listed gold companies with Buy ratings reserved for:

-Vault Minerals ((VAU))
-Alkane Resources ((ALK))
-Ora Banda Mining ((OBM))
-Pantoro Gold ((PNR))

Over at Stockbroker Morgans the preference lays with Northern Star ((NST)) and Newmont Corp ((NEM)) among larger caps, with Regis Resources ((RRL)) preferred among mid-cap options.

Analysts at Ord Minnett favour Newmont Corp and Vault Minerals.

Other ideas in a largely 'cheap' looking resources sector, according to Ord Minnett, include Capstone Copper, Rio Tinto ((RIO)), Paladin Energy ((PDN)) and Lotus Resources ((LOT)), and Whitehaven Coal ((WHC)) as the quality play among coal producers.

****

Goldman Sachs' selection of local Conviction Buys is now reduced to three:

-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Worley ((WOR))

Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield ((URW)) is also included for its Paris listing with the local listing about to disappear.

Best Buys & Conviction Calls

Bell Potter's sector preferences for the financial year ahead.

Listed Investment Companies ((LICs)
-Australian Foundation Investment Company ((AFI))
-Metrics Master Income Trust ((MXT))
-MFF Capital Investments ((MFF))

Agricultural & Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG)
-Bega Cheese ((BGA))
-Rural Funds Group ((RFF))
-Elders ((ELD))

Technology
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))
-Gentrack ((GTK))
-Seek ((SEK))

Diversified Financials
-Cuscal ((CCL))
-Praemium ((PPS))
-Regal Partners ((RPL))

Real Estate
-Aspen Group ((APZ))
-Cedar Woods ((CWP))
-Region Group ((RGN))

Retail
-JB Hi-Fi ((JBH))
-Universal Store Holdings ((UNI))
-Propel Funeral Partners ((PFP))

Industrials
-LGI Ltd ((LGI))
-Environmental Group ((EGL))

Healthcare
-Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX))
-Neuren Pharmaceuticals ((NEU))
-Monash IVF ((MVF))

Gold
-Minerals 260 ((MI6))
-Santana Minerals ((SMI))
-Evolution Mining ((EVN))

Base Metals
-Aeris Resources ((AIS))
-Nickel Industries ((NIC))
-AIC Mines ((A1M))

Strategic Minerals & Processing Technologies
-Alpha HPA ((A4N))
-IperionX ((IPX))

Energy
-Boss Energy ((BOE))

Mining & Industrial Services
-Develop Global ((DVP))
-ALS Ltd ((ALQ))
-Duratec ((DUR))

****

favourites inside the local small cap retail space (in order of preference) as selected by Retail sector analysts at Citi:

-Universal Store Holdings ((UNI))
-Baby Bunting ((BBY))
-Nick Scali ((NCK))
-Temple & Webster ((TPW))
-Beacon Lighting ((BLX))
-Harvey Norman ((HVN))
-Accent Group ((AX1))
-Super Retail ((SUL))
-Premier Investments ((PMV))
-Bapcor ((BAP))
-Lovisa Holdings ((LOV))

****

Crestone's Best Sector Ideas:

-Ampol ((ALD))
-APA Group ((APA))
-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-Beach Energy ((BPT))
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Cochlear ((COH))
-CSL ((CSL))
-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-IGO Ltd ((IGO))
-James Hardie Industries ((JHX))
-Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Metcash ((MTS))
-Monadelphous Group ((MND))
-REA Group ((REA))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Xero ((XRO))

Crestone's selection for sustainable income:

-Amcor ((AMC))
-Ampol ((ALD))
-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-APA Group ((APA))
-Atlas Arteria ((ALX))
-Beach Energy ((BPT))
-BHP Group ((BHP))
-Car Group ((CAR))
-Coles Group ((COL))
-Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure ((DBI))
-Iress ((IRE))
-Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Metcash ((MTS))
-Mirvac Group ((MGR))
-Pro Medicus ((PME))
-QBE Insurance ((QBE))
-RAM Essential Services ((REP))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Tabcorp Holdings ((TAH))
-Telstra Group ((TLS))

****

Morgans' selection of Best Ideas consists of the following 29 ASX-listed companies:

Acrow ((ACF))
ALS Ltd ((ALQ))
Amotiv ((AOV))
BHP Group ((BHP))
Collins Foods ((CKF))
Corporate Travel Management ((CTD))
CSL ((CSL))
Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure ((DBI))
Dexus Convenience Retail REIT ((DXC))
DigiCo Infrastructure REIT ((DGT))
EBR Systems ((EBR))
Elders ((ELD))
Goodman Group ((GMG))
Guzman y Gomez ((GYG))
James Hardie Industries ((JHX))
Light & Wonder ((LNW))
Lovisa Holdings ((LOV))
MA Financial Group ((MAF))
Megaport ((MP1))
Orica ((ORI))
Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI))
ResMed ((RMD))
South32 ((S32))
Treasury Wine Estates ((TWE))
Qualitas ((QAL))
Universal Store Holdings ((UNI))
Whitehaven Coal ((WHC))
WiseTech Global ((WTC))
Woodside Energy ((WDS))

****

Morgan Stanley's six Conviction stock picks that each represent a compelling individual investment case underpinned by idiosyncratic drivers and the ability to deliver earnings upside, believed to be underappreciated by the market.

-WiseTech Global ((WTC))
-Charter Hall Group ((CHC))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Life360 Inc ((360))
-Generation Development Group ((GDG))
-Data#3 ((DTL))

Morgan Stanley's Macro+ Focus List in Australia is currently made up of:

-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-Car Group ((CAR))
-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-GPT Group ((GPT))
-James Hardie Industries ((JHX))
-Orica ((ORI))
-Santos ((STO))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Xero ((XRO))

Morgan Stanley's Australia Macro+ Model Portfolio is currently made up of the following:

-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-CommBank ((CBA))
-National Australia Bank ((NAB))
-Westpac ((WBC))

-Macquarie Group ((MQG))

-Suncorp Group ((SUN))

-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-GPT Group ((GPT))
-Scentre Group ((SCG))
-Stockland ((STG))

-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-Eagers Automotive ((APE))
-CAR Group ((CAR))
-Domino's Pizza ((DMP))
-The Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Wesfarmers ((WES))
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))
-Xero ((XRO))

-James Hardie ((JHX))

-Amcor ((AMC))
-Cleanaway Waste Management ((CWY))
-Orica ((ORI))

-Coles Group ((COL))

-CSL ((CSL))
-ResMed ((RMD))

-AGL Energy ((AGL))
-Telstra ((TLS))
-Transurban ((TCL))

-BHP Group ((BHP))
-Newmont Corp ((NEM))
-Rio Tinto ((RIO))
-South32 ((S32))

-Santos ((STO))
-Woodside Energy ((WDS))

****

Morningstar's Equity Best Ideas (Conviction Buy Calls by any other name, mostly chosen because of under-valuation).

-Auckland International Airport ((AIA))
-ASX Ltd ((ASX))
-Aurizon Holdings ((AZJ))
-Bapcor ((BAP))
-Dexus ((DXS))
-Domino's Pizza Enterprises ((DMP))
-Endeavour Group ((EDV))
-Fineos Corp ((FCL))
-IDP Education ((IEL))
-IGO Ltd ((IGO))
-Ramsay Health Care ((RHC))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))
-Spark New Zealand ((SPK))
-Woodside Energy ((WDS))

****

Ord Minnett's High Conviction calls (all nominations made by sector analysts on a 12 month horizon):

-Aussie Broadband ((ABB))
-Brazilian Rare Earths ((BRE))
-Bubs Australia ((BUB))
-Cuscal ((CCL))
-Qoria ((QOR))
-Regis Healthcare ((REG))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))
-Vault Minerals ((VAU))
-Waypoint REIT ((WPR))
-Zip Co ((ZIP))

****

Shaw and Partners' Large Caps Model Portfolio:

-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-BlueScope Steel ((BSL))
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Dexus ((DXS))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Newmont Corp ((NEM))
-South32 ((S32))

Shaw and Partners' emerging companies Top Picks:

-AML3D ((AL3))
-Australian Vanadium ((AVL))
-Bannerman Energy ((BMN))
-Chrysos ((C79))
-Humm Group ((HUM))
-Metro Mining ((MMI))
-Santana Minerals ((SMI))
-Southern Cross Electrical ((SXE))

****

UBS's Most Preferred Stocks in Australia

In Resources segment:
-BHP Group ((BHP))
-BlueScope Steel ((BSL))
-Newmont Corp ((NEM))
-Orica ((ORI))
-Origin Energy ((ORG))

Among Financials & A-REITs:
-Dexus ((DXS))
-Lifestyle Communities ((LIC))
-Mirvac Group ((MGR))
-Medibank Private ((MPL))
-QBE Insurance ((QBE))
-Steadfast Group ((SDF))

Among Industrials:
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Collins Foods ((CKF))
-Cochlear ((COH))
-Coles Group ((COL))
-NextDC ((NXT))
-REA Group ((REA))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-SGH Ltd ((SGH))
-TechnologyOne ((TNE))
-Telstra Corp ((TLS))
-Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX))
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))

UBS's Least Preferred Stocks in Australia

-Aurizon Holdings ((AZJ))
-ASX Ltd ((ASX))
-Bank of Queensland ((BOQ))
-CommBank ((CBA))
-Charter Hall Group ((CHC))
-Computershare ((CPU))
-Evolution Mining ((EVN))
-Temple & Webster ((TPW))

****

Wilsons' Key Investment Opportunities:

-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))
-Woolworths ((WOW))

High conviction investment ideas:

-ARB Corp ((ARB))
-Maas Group ((MGH))
-Nanosonics ((NAN))
-Ridley Corp ((RIC))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))

Speculative idea:

-Clarity Pharmaceuticals ((CU6))

Wilsons' Focus Portfolio currently contains the following:

-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-BHP Group ((BHP))
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Car Group ((CAR))
-Collins Foods ((CKF))
-CSL ((CSL))
-Evolution Mining ((EVN))
-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT ((HCW))
-Hub24 ((HUB))
-James Hardie ((JHX))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Northern Star Resources ((NST))
-Pinnacle Investment Managers ((PNI))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Sandfire Resources ((SFR))
-Santos ((STO))
-South32 ((S32))
-TechnologyOne ((TNE))
-Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX))
-The Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Westpac Bank ((WBC))
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))
-Woolworths Group ((WOW))
-Worley ((WOR))
-Xero ((XRO))

Paying subscribers have 24/7 access to my curated lists, including All-Weather Performers at: https://fnarena.com/index.php/analysis-data/all-weather-stocks/

FNArena Talks

Interview for Philip Muscatello's Shares For Beginners about the ins and outs of All-Weathers and the portfolio over the decade past:

https://www.sharesforbeginners.com/blog/fnarena-all-weather

YouTube: https://youtu.be/m33cYbtJsDs?si=MQTAW8YgI2oNjKc4

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/43A2QQWyfGdHYgixBalJo7?si=dd99905f27554381

Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/all-weather-portfolio-rudi-filapek-vandyck-fnarena/id1451778025?i=1000715348354

Ask FNArena

With fiscal 2025 in the rear view and the August results season only weeks away, FNArena is preparing for an online live event, allowing subscribers and investors to ask questions about what to expect, individual companies, specific strategies, et cetera.

Yours truly will do his best to prepare and answer as many questions as possible. No date has been set as yet, but we're aiming for the final week of July.

Questions can be send in beforehand via Editor@fnarena.com. More details to follow.

(Do note that, in line with all my analyses, appearances and presentations, all of the above names and calculations are provided for educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions.)  

P.S. I - All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert for my Rudi's View stories. Go to My Alerts (top bar of the website) and tick the box in front of 'Rudi's View'. You will receive an email alert every time a new Rudi's View story has been published on the website. 

P.S. II - If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.

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