Author: Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Oct 20, 2025

Daily Market Reports | Oct 20 2025

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

A1M   APZ   AWJ   BTR   DDR   ELV   FBU   GMD   IGO   LTR   PLS   VUL  

APZ    ASPEN GROUP LIMITED

Real Estate - Overnight Price: $5.05

Moelis rates ((APZ)) as Hold (3) -

Moelis sticks with its Hold rating for Aspen Group while its price target for the shares has improved to $5.22 from $4.43.

Aspen has lifted FY26 underlying pre-tax EPS guidance to 20.1c from 19.0c alongside an upbeat 1Q26 update including 5.3c underlying pre-tax EPS (+21% y/y), a strong Darwin Freespirit peak season (NRI +22% y/y), and 30 development settlements with 112 contracts in hand.

The broker highlights two acquisitions: a 300-site Wallaroo, SA project (a pivot toward build-to-rent townhouses plus land-lease homes) and a Surry Hills office to partly serve as HQ.

Balance-sheet headroom is ample (Moelis expects gearing at circa 18% by Dec-26), supporting pipeline expansion and a higher valuation, hence the higher price target.

Forecasts have slightly moved higher.

This report was published on October 17, 2025.

Target price is $5.22 Current Price is $5.05 Difference: $0.17
If APZ meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.25.

Forecast for FY27:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 12.20 cents and EPS of 22.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.54.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AWJ    AURIC MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver - Overnight Price: $0.29

Taylor Collison rates ((AWJ)) as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) -

Taylor Collison starts coverage on Auric Mining with Speculative Buy and $0.39 price target, arguing the story shifts from toll-treating to an integrated model built around Munda and the recently bought Burbanks mill.

The broker expects near-term cash from the Munda starter pit (6.1koz processed Oct–Q1 CY26) and models AISC $3,500/oz versus a $5,500/oz deck, implying solid margins and circa $11m operating cash flow.

Longer term, value is tied to scaling the Munda main pit and refurbishing/expanding Burbanks (180ktpa) to reduce third-party costs. 

Primary risk: execution on processing pathway and cost/grade variability, the broker says.

This report was published on October 10, 2025.

Target price is $0.39 Current Price is $0.29 Difference: $0.1
If AWJ meets the Taylor Collison target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BTR    BRIGHTSTAR RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver - Overnight Price: $0.60

Petra Capital rates ((BTR)) as Buy (1) -

Petra Capital keeps Brightstar Resources on Buy after a "strong" Sep Q’25 update: production rose 90% q/q to 7.0koz as Fish underground joined Second Fortune.

FY26 guidance stays 29–34koz at AISC $3,800–4,000/oz; the broker models 33koz at AISC $3,855/oz.

Forecasts rise mainly on a higher gold deck (+12–25% across FY26–LT), partly offset by an -8% trim to FY26 volumes and a 2% AISC lift, taking the price target to $1.57.

Only minor amendments have been made to forecasts.

This report was published on October 15, 2025.

Target price is $1.57 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: $0.97
If BTR meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 162% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.50.

Forecast for FY27:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.36.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


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Australian investors stay informed with FNArena – your trusted source for Australian financial news. We deliver expert analysis, daily updates on the ASX and commodity markets, and deep insights into companies on the ASX200 and ASX300, and beyond. Whether you're seeking a reliable financial newsletter or comprehensive finance news and detailed insights, FNArena offers unmatched coverage of the stock market news that matters. As a leading financial online newspaper, we help you stay ahead in the fast-moving world of Australian finance news.

Aussie Dividends Lagging Global Trend

Dividends are experiencing a firm uptrend globally but Australia is not keeping up. Gone are the days when iron ore producers featured among the world's top payers.

-ASX' Top dividend payers are paying out less
-Iron ore miners, energy companies are reducing payouts, with further cuts expected
-Globally dividends are experiencing strong uptrend
-Japan’s structural pivot toward shareholder returns includes strong growth in dividends

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

Gone are the days when Australia’s largest iron ore miners sat on top of the world for largest annual dividend payments to shareholders; that was so 2021.

This year, top dividend payers are largely made up of US and European listed companies let by Microsoft, Nestle, Novartis, Exxon Mobil and HSBC Holdings.

The world’s number one ranking remains with China Construction Bank Corp, which has managed to consolidate its position as the world’s largest dividend payer (although by paying out less than in the year prior).

Domestically, BHP Group ((BHP)) and Rio Tinto ((RIO)) remain top dividend destinations on the ASX, paying out respectively US$7.4bn and US$7bn in their fiscal 2024 years.

‘Seven’ is also the magical starting number for CommBank ((CBA)), albeit in Australian dollars, with Australia’s largest lender paying out $7.8bn to its shareholders in FY24.

Alas, the trend is not that favourable for shareholders in each of Australia's heavyweight dividend payers.

For the fiscal year to June 30, 2025 BHP Group paid out -US$1.8bn less. Fortescue ((FMG)) equally reduced its payout to $3.4bn from $6.1bn in FY24.

Rio Tinto's fiscal year runs January-December and its half-yearly payout of US$3.8bn was -7% below the US$4.1bn paid out for the first half of 2024.

CommBank, on the other hand, still managed to increase its payout to $7.94bn in FY25.

As indicated, the latest global rankings by Capital Group no longer features any of Australia’s dividend champions inside the Global Top 20.

Global Dividend Payers - Top20 - Capital Group

Global Dividend Payers - Top20 - Capital Group

Source: Capital Group

Capital Group’s global study shows global dividends surged to a record US$1.14trn in the first half of 2025, with Australia one of the few weak spots as falling commodity prices forced big miners to cut cheques to shareholders.

Capital Group’s Global Equity Study – Dividend Watch (Edition 1, Sept 2025) tracks payouts across the world’s 1,600 largest listed companies.

The global picture

-Topline growth: Worldwide dividends rose 7.7% year-on-year in H1; on a cleaner “core” basis (excluding FX moves, timing shifts and specials), growth was 6.2%.

Ordinary dividends have risen to fresh highs, with specials still elevated but a touch lower than 2024.

-Sector leader: Financials did the heavy lifting, paying a record US$299bn and accounting for roughly two-fifths of global growth.

Banks led, with names from Japan (Mitsubishi UFJ), the US (JPMorgan) and Singapore (DBS) among the biggest dividend lifters.

The situation looks less buoyant for Australian banks who paid out less in the first half because Westpac ((WBC)) paid a special last year that was not repeated.

Equally so: when three of Australia’s Big Four report FY25 financials in November total dividends paid out by ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) and Westpac ((WBC)) for the year are projected to fall short of last year’s numbers.

-Regional stand-outs: Japan was this year’s breakout story with 13.8% core growth, reflecting record profits and a shift toward shareholder returns.

Continental Europe grew more slowly (5.6% core) as auto makers trimmed payouts.

-Where growth may slow in H2: The report notes the seasonal mix in the second half favours slower-growing regions --the UK, China and Australia-- implying a softer global run-rate into year-end.

Australia: miners drag, specials mask the pain

-Core trend: Australia’s core dividends fell -10.6% in H1 2025. The culprits were cuts from BHP, Fortescue and Rio Tinto, which together shaved -US$2.4bn from payouts as lower commodity prices pressured cash flows.

Woodside Energy ((WDS)) and Santos ((STO)) also reduced.

-Topline vs reality: Headline payouts in US dollars dipped -2.3%; in Australian dollars they rose 1.0%, flattered by a very large special dividend from Suncorp Group ((SUN)) following the sale of its banking operations to ANZ Bank.

-Concentration effect: The study stresses the ASX’s heavy skew to a handful of miners, energy majors and big financials, making it “hard for the second tier to make much impact” when the giants tighten the taps.

What it means for Australian income investors

-Expect a patchier H2: With seasonality leaning toward Australia and other slower cohorts, headline growth is likely to cool in the back half.

-Banks vs resources: Globally, banks and insurers are supporting dividend growth; resources are the laggard.

That mix argues for diversified income beyond the local miners (and energy producers).

-Watch Japan’s reform tailwind: For investors not afraid to move offshore, Japan’s structural pivot toward shareholder returns --and double-digit core growth-- offers a contrasting income stream to Australia’s commodity cycle.

2025 Dividend Growth Globally - Capital Group

2025 Dividend Growth Globally - Capital Group

On current forecasts, BHP is expected to reduce its dividend in FY26, and again in FY27. Rio Tinto, whose fiscal years runs January-December, is expected to pay out less for 2025 than last year, but with an increase expected next year.

Fortescue's annual dividends are equally projected to reduce in each of FY25 and FY26.

Woodside Energy cut its dividend in 2024 and is projected to cut again in each of 2025 and 2026. Consensus sees Santos paying out less in 2025, but expects this company to lift its dividend next year.

For more details: see Stock Analysis on the website.

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FNArena is proud about its track record and past achievements: Ten Years On

Australian investors stay informed with FNArena – your trusted source for Australian financial news. We deliver expert analysis, daily updates on the ASX and commodity markets, and deep insights into companies on the ASX200 and ASX300, and beyond. Whether you're seeking a reliable financial newsletter or comprehensive finance news and detailed insights, FNArena offers unmatched coverage of the stock market news that matters. As a leading financial online newspaper, we help you stay ahead in the fast-moving world of Australian finance news.

FNArena Corporate Results Monitor – 05-09-2025

FNArena's Monitor keeps track of corporate earnings result releases, including broker views, ratings and target price changes and beat/miss assessments. By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck Welcome to the FNArena Corporate Results Monitor. Today's Reports:
  • ((NXD)) - NextEd Group
Check it out at https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/reporting_season/ Welcome to the FNArena Corporate Results Monitor: Subscribers can access the monitor at any time using this link, Corporate Results Monitor, or via the drop-down menu starting from Analysis & Data on the horizontal bar across the website. Whereas previously the day's (often long) list of reporting stocks and result assessments were made available at day's end, the new format allows us to update more regularly during peak times. The list of the day's reporting stocks will build as each day progresses, and the full table of all result assessments will build each day as the season progresses. At any time, subscribers can print out the table in PDF form using the button provided. The table includes broker ratings and consensus target price changes and a brief commentary for each reporting company. For further information on the relevance of this information, please see the Guide below. Guide: Each day of the Australian corporate reporting season, FNArena provides a summary of broker responses to the previous day's profit result releases from companies under coverage. Readers are reminded that it matters not what actual profit/loss result is posted by each company but by how much that result exceeded/fell short of stock analysts' consensus forecasts. Stock price movements on the day of release, and in many cases for the months following the release, will often be determined by the extent of "beats" and "misses" of underlying earnings as well as company guidance and analyst/management outlook. A rolling summary table is updated in real time each day on the FNArena website and will build as the season progresses. Additions are made each day, consistent with releases dates, and stocks will then be listed in alphabetical order for ease of use until the full picture of the reporting season emerges. Note that companies assessed include only those covered by the eight major stockbrokers in the FNArena database and that ratings changes and targets are those provided only by the database brokers. Note also that “beat” and “miss” assessments are open to an element of subjectivity and not simply a result-versus-consensus-forecast comparison. Mitigating factors include one-off items, top line versus bottom line relevance, forward guidance as an important consideration and so forth. In many cases “profit” per se is not the most relevant performance indicator. Disclaimer: While FNArena's Corporate Results Monitor is being compiled with great care and our best endeavours, investors should note that we cannot guarantee that all data and information gathered and on display is 100% accurate at all times. FNArena does not accept any responsibility for errors and omissions that can occur. Investors should always do their own research and consult with a financial expert before making investment decisions. FNArena's Corporate Results Monitor is an informative tool, it does not not contain investment advice and should not be treated as such. Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided. FNArena is proud about its track record and past achievements: Ten Years On

Australian investors stay informed with FNArena – your trusted source for Australian financial news. We deliver expert analysis, daily updates on the ASX and commodity markets, and deep insights into companies on the ASX200 and ASX300, and beyond. Whether you're seeking a reliable financial newsletter or comprehensive finance news and detailed insights, FNArena offers unmatched coverage of the stock market news that matters. As a leading financial online newspaper, we help you stay ahead in the fast-moving world of Australian finance news.

article 3 months old

Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Sep 03, 2025

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

29M   A1N   ACE   ACF (2)   ACL   AHX   AMI   AUB   BGL   CVV   CWP   EMR   EVT   FMG   GNE   HGO   HLO   IDX (2)   IGO   INA   JIN (2)   LOV   MAD   MVF   NAN   NEU   NUZ   OBM   PDN   PFP   PRU   RMD   SCG   SDV   SFR   SHL   SKS   SLX   SOM   TLX   TYR   WEB   WGX  

29M    29METALS LIMITED

Copper - Overnight Price: $0.34

Jarden rates ((29M)) as Underweight (4) -

29Metals achieved an interim earnings beat through what Jarden describes as a "surprise" inclusion of $54m in insurance proceeds, which accounted for the difference.

Ex-insurance proceeds, cash flow was negative at -$52m over the first half for an overall cash outflow of -$65m, with repayment of debt and leases of -$66m. Liquidity stood at around $202m at the end of June.

The miner retained 2025 guidance, and the analyst remains comfortable with production forecasts below management's guidance.

No change to Underweight rating and 30c target price.

This report was published on August 26, 2025.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If 29M meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.25, suggesting downside of -27.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 21.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

A1N    ARN MEDIA LIMITED

Print, Radio & TV - Overnight Price: $0.51

Canaccord Genuity rates ((A1N)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Canaccord Genuity describes ARN Media's 1H25 result as complicated, with the Hong Kong OOH (Cody Outdoor) business reclassified as discontinued (pending disposal) and the agency business Emotiv sold in May 2025.

The continuing Audio business materially underperformed peers, particularly in Metro and Regional Radio, despite digital growth. Revenue of $142.3m was down -7% y/y and missed the broker's forecast by -7%.

Gross margins improved and cost savings were substantial, but the broker trimmed FY25 EBITDA forecast by -14%. Revenue forecast was lowered by -7%.

Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target cut to 50c from 95c.

This report was published on August 28, 2025.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.51 Difference: minus $0.005 (current price is over target).
If A1N meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.49, suggesting downside of -3.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 5.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.9, implying annual growth of 288.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 8.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.5, implying annual growth of 12.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ACE    ACUSENSUS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics - Overnight Price: $1.00

Wilsons rates ((ACE)) as Overweight (1) -

Wilsons highlights FY25 was a strong year for Acusensus, marked by contract wins across every tender for new enforcement services in Australia and New Zealand. The company also invested in growth by spending -$13m on PP&E.

Revenue rose 20% y/y to $59.4m, meeting the broker's forecast. Gross margins fell -119bps to 44.9% and the company expects it to decline further as speed enforcement cameras make up a larger proportion of revenue.

EBITDA missed the broker's estimate due to higher-than-expected headcount and spending to support growth in the UK and the US. 

FY26 revenue guidance midpoint was 5% above consensus, leading to a 5-7% lift in the broker's revenue forecasts for FY26-27. EBITDA forecasts, however, declined due to growth-supporting expenses.

Overweight. Target trimmed to $1.21 from $1.23.

This report was published on August 27, 2025.

Target price is $1.21 Current Price is $1.00 Difference: $0.21
If ACE meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 62.50.

Forecast for FY27:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 45.45.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ACF    ACROW LIMITED

Building Products & Services - Overnight Price: $1.03

Moelis rates ((ACF)) as Buy (1) -

Acrow's FY25 revenue rose by 23% and earnings (EBITDA) lifted by 8% year-on-year, broadly in line with guidance and consensus, highlights Moelis.

Industrial Access Services expanded rapidly, observes the broker, and now accounts for 50% of group revenue, with hire contracts up 27% to $98.2m. FY25 revenue grew 83% to $132m, driven by organic growth and the Brand and Above acquisition, explains the analyst.

Net debt rose to $123m, equal to 1.8 times earnings, with management targeting reduction in FY26 as capex falls to -$27m.

The broker lowers its FY26, FY27, and FY28 EPS forecasts by -14%, -10%, and -4%, respectively, reflecting weaker expectations for Formwork. Moelis reduces its target price to $1.32 from $1.44 and retains a Buy rating.

This report was published on August 26, 2025.

Target price is $1.32 Current Price is $1.03 Difference: $0.285
If ACF meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.31, suggesting upside of 26.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 5.70 cents and EPS of 11.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.6, implying annual growth of 53.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.9.

Forecast for FY27:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 6.30 cents and EPS of 12.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.4, implying annual growth of 15.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.7.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Petra Capital rates ((ACF)) as Buy (1) -

Acrow's FY25 earnings (EBITDA) of $80.2m came in at the low end of guidance, notes Petra Capital, with formwork revenue weaker due to project delays and softer gross margins in the second half.

Debt levels rose and cash flow declined, while Industrial Access revenue doubled and continued to consolidate acquisitions, highlights the analyst.

Petra Capital expects FY26 will remain challenging, with formwork demand subdued in the first half. Industrial Access revenue is forecast to reach around $200m, driving 23.7% revenue growth and 5.8% earnings growth.

The broker's forecasts now include the Brisbane Olympics, with activity expected from 2H27 through 1H31. The project could deliver $76-152m of sector revenue, providing meaningful upside for formwork.

The analyst highlights a pipeline of $217.5m and sees earnings stabilising as projects are delivered. Moelis cuts its target price to $1.68 from $1.80 and retains a Buy rating.

This report was published on August 27, 2025.

Target price is $1.68 Current Price is $1.03 Difference: $0.645
If ACF meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.31, suggesting upside of 26.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 5.60 cents and EPS of 11.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.6, implying annual growth of 53.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.9.

Forecast for FY27:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 7.80 cents and EPS of 15.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.4, implying annual growth of 15.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.7.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ACL    AUSTRALIAN CLINICAL LABS LIMITED

Healthcare services - Overnight Price: $2.67

Wilsons rates ((ACL)) as Overweight (1) -

Wilsons has an Overweight rating and $3.85 target price on Australian Clinical Labs.

The company recorded a 6% y/y lift in group revenue in FY25, with underlying net profit of $34m beating the broker's forecast by 3%. 

The broker noted prudent cost management, particularly in labour, alongside targeted, profitable revenue growth resulted in margins outperforming its FY25 expectations.

FY26 revenue guidance of $760-780m implies a 4% increase at the midpoint but missed the broker's and consensus forecast by -3%. The broker sees this as a near-term headwind but expects company-wide initiatives to drive meaningful margin lift in FY27, and double-digit margins by FY28.

This report was published on August 27, 2025.

Target price is $3.85 Current Price is $2.67 Difference: $1.18
If ACL meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 11.40 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.05.

Forecast for FY27:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 13.20 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.14.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AHX    APIAM ANIMAL HEALTH LIMITED

Healthcare services - Overnight Price: $0.80

Canaccord Genuity rates ((AHX)) as Hold (3) -

Canaccord Genuity assesses Apiam Animal Health's FY25 result as solid, with underlying EBITDA beating its forecast by 9% and net profit by 24%. 

Intensive Animal Vet Services was the revenue driver, up 13% y/y, offsetting the -2.2% y/y decline in Clinical Vet Services. Strong cost control was the highlight, with opex down -1% y/y, and $1.5m of cost reductions made in June/July.

With Intensive Animal Vet Services growing strongly and cost initiatives set to flow through in FY26, the broker believes the company is positioned well for both margin recovery and future scaling.

FY26 EBITDA forecast lifted by 8% and FY27 by 5.5%.

Hold. Target trimmed to 87c from 88c following final dividend of 1c.

This report was published on August 28, 2025.

Target price is $0.87 Current Price is $0.80 Difference: $0.07
If AHX meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.00.

Forecast for FY27:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AMI    AURELIA METALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver - Overnight Price: $0.22

Moelis rates ((AMI)) as Buy (1) -

Aurelia Metals reported FY25 revenue of $343.5m, ahead of Moelis’ $339.3m forecast, with earnings (EBITDA) of $111.5m versus $106.5m.

Profit of $45.4m also beat the broker’s $34.1m forecast, driven by around -$9m lower D&A, while reported profit was $48.9m. Operating cash flow (OCF) of $129.7m also came in above expectations of $125.6m.

At first glance, the stronger result was mainly revenue-driven, explains the analyst, with finance costs in line. Lower-than-expected D&A provided additional support to earnings and may have ongoing benefits if sustained.

The result may restore confidence after recent medium-term outlook downgrades, suggests Moelis.

Buy rating. Unchanged target price of 31c.

This report was published on August 26, 2025.

Target price is $0.31 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.09
If AMI meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.33, suggesting upside of 50.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.4, implying annual growth of -17.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2.

Forecast for FY27:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.7, implying annual growth of -29.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AUB    AUB GROUP LIMITED

Insurance - Overnight Price: $34.97

Jarden rates ((AUB)) as Overweight (2) -

A surprising international result helped AUB Group achieve a solid to better-than-expected FY25 earnings report. Underlying net profit after tax grew 17.1%.

Management's FY26 guidance is considered conservative, with potential for positive margin upside. The analyst's FY30 margin forecasts are around 100bps to 800bps below the company's ambitions, leaving scope for beats to expectations.

Jarden lowers its EPS forecasts by -3.8% for FY26 and -3.2% for FY27.

Overweight retained. Target slips to $37.20 from $38.25.

This report was published on August 27, 2025.

Target price is $37.20 Current Price is $34.97 Difference: $2.23
If AUB meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $37.27, suggesting upside of 6.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 105.00 cents and EPS of 190.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 191.4, implying annual growth of 23.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 104.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4.

Forecast for FY27:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 117.00 cents and EPS of 213.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 205.1, implying annual growth of 7.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 111.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BGL    BELLEVUE GOLD LIMITED

Gold & Silver - Overnight Price: $0.89

Canaccord Genuity rates ((BGL)) as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bellevue Gold's FY25 revenue of $506m beat Canaccord Genuity's forecast by 3% but was in line with the consensus. Underlying EBITDA beat the broker and the consensus forecasts by 11% and 6%, respectively.

Net profit, however, missed because of costs with hedge closing.

FY26 guidance was announced before, and the broker already adjusted the production forecast to align with it. This time, the broker lifted FY26 cost forecast by 3% to $2,751, but expects it to be weighted towards 2H.

Speculative Buy. Target unchanged at $1.65.

This report was published on August 28, 2025.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $0.89 Difference: $0.76
If BGL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 85% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.15, suggesting upside of 27.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3.

Forecast for FY27:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.8, implying annual growth of -40.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CVV    CARAVEL MINERALS LIMITED

Copper - Overnight Price: $0.15

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CVV)) as Speculative Buy (1) -

Caravel Minerals appointed Primero Group, a subsidiary of NRW Holdings ((NWH)) as EPCM for the Caravel copper project. Canaccord Genuity notes this aligns with its forecast for a Definitive Feasibility Study completion by mid-2026.

The broker expects project financing and FID in 2H of 2026, and construction to start in early 2027. Commissioning and ramp-up are modelled from 2H 2028.

The broker reminds the Caravel project is one of the largest, if not the largest, undeveloped copper projects in Australia.

Speculative Buy. Target price 62c.

This report was published on August 28, 2025.

Target price is $0.62 Current Price is $0.15 Difference: $0.47
If CVV meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 313% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CWP    CEDAR WOODS PROPERTIES LIMITED

Infra & Property Developers - Overnight Price: $7.41

Moelis rates ((CWP)) as Buy (1) -

FY25 EPS for Cedar Woods Properties of 58.4c came in ahead of Moelis’ 56.9c estimate. Presales reached a record $660m, highlights the analyst, underpinning FY26 guidance for profit growth of at least 10%.

Margins expanded to 28% from 25% in FY24, supported by strong price growth across key markets, explains the broker.

Moelis notes 1,125 lot settlements in FY25, with a 6% increase expected in FY26. Queensland and WA are driving growth, explains the broker, South Australia remains steady, and Victoria is expected to recover on affordability and population growth.

The broker upgrades its medium-term EPS forecasts, highlighting capacity to harvest a low-cost landbank into supply-constrained markets. It's noted inventory covers three years of sales with additional stock beyond that period, ensuring strong visibility.

Moelis raises its target price to $8.36 from $7.63 and maintains a Buy rating.

This report was published on August 27, 2025.

Target price is $8.36 Current Price is $7.41 Difference: $0.95
If CWP meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 32.50 cents and EPS of 64.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.42.

Forecast for FY27:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 36.50 cents and EPS of 73.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.10.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EMR    EMERALD RESOURCES NL

Gold & Silver - Overnight Price: $4.01

Canaccord Genuity rates ((EMR)) as Buy (1) -

Emerald Resources' FY25 reported EBITDA of $204m fell short of Canaccord Genuity's forecast of $211m and the consensus of $219m due to royalty and selling costs.

Reported net profit was a bigger miss, with the $88m outcome compared with the broker's $116m estimate on higher D&A and tax.

FY26 guidance was provided earlier and retained at 105-120koz, and no specific FY26 cost guidance was provided, though the company did flag 1H26 cost in US$900-10000/oz range.

The broker made minor revisions to depreciation estimates. Buy. Target unchanged at $5.5.

This report was published on August 28, 2025.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.01 Difference: $1.49
If EMR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.14.

Forecast for FY27:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 44.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.11.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVT    EVT LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism - Overnight Price: $13.83

Jarden rates ((EVT)) as Downgrade to Overweight from Buy (2) -

Jarden downgrades EVT Ltd to Overweight from Buy post FY25 net profit after tax, which came in lower than anticipated but beat consensus by 6% when tax-adjusted and by 11% after cyclone impacts.

Cinemas disappointed, notably in Germany, down around -5%, while Australia fell -4%.

The analyst lowers earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by around -3% to -11% for FY26-FY28, from revenue downgrades of -3% to -4%, with more conservative recovery assumptions adopted.

Target price slips to $16.34 from $18.70.

This report was published on August 26, 2025.

Target price is $16.34 Current Price is $13.83 Difference: $2.51
If EVT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $17.75, suggesting upside of 29.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 41.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.0, implying annual growth of 114.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.2.

Forecast for FY27:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 EPS of 47.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.8, implying annual growth of 24.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.0.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FMG    FORTESCUE LIMITED

Iron Ore - Overnight Price: $18.40

Jarden rates ((FMG)) as Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral (4) -

Jarden downgrades Fortescue to Underweight from Neutral due to the stock's recent outperformance and valuation grounds.

The miner achieved what the analyst considers "operational excellence" in FY25, with record shipments and industry-leading costs. Momentum has been retained into FY26.

The analyst raises capital investment forecasts by 2%-4% for FY27-FY30, with only slight changes to other operating financial forecasts, resulting in an impact on EPS estimates, down -3% for FY26 and -2% for FY27.

Target slips to $16 from $16.25.

This report was published on August 27, 2025.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $18.40 Difference: minus $2.4 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $17.99, suggesting downside of -1.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 82.00 cents and EPS of 140.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 137.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 91.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY27:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 63.56 cents and EPS of 86.34 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 106.8, implying annual growth of -22.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GNE    GENESIS ENERGY LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities - Overnight Price: $2.12

Jarden rates ((GNE)) as Buy (1) -

Genesis Energy's FY25 results saw normalised earnings of NZ$470m, slightly higher than guidance of NZ$460m, Jarden observes.

FY26 guidance, however, surprised to the downside due to a pick-up in digital spending, Kupe costs, and hydro. Guidance sits at NZ$430m-NZ$460m, with the timing of the opex coming as the surprise, not the project costs.

Jarden lowers its earnings (EBITDA) forecast to NZ$603m from NZ$630m, versus the company's guidance at NZ$550m.

Target slips to NZ$2.93 from NZ$3. No change to Buy rating.

This report was published on August 26, 2025.

Current Price is $2.12. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 13.51 cents and EPS of 7.49 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.32.

Forecast for FY27:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 13.88 cents and EPS of 10.77 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.68.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HGO    HILLGROVE RESOURCES LIMITED

Copper - Overnight Price: $0.04

Moelis rates ((HGO)) as Buy (1) -

Hillgrove Resources' first-half FY25 result was broadly in line with the Moelis forecast at the earnings (EBITDA) level, with $14.2m reported against the broker's $16m forecast. The analyst highlights a -$1.7m inventory movement was treated as a cost.

Revenue was $81.3m, matching the broker's forecast, while profit of $3.6m beat expectations due to lower-than-expected D&A of -$9m versus the broker’s -$21m estimate. Operating cash flow (OCF) was $12.4m compared with $9.8m forecast.

Near-term production volatility continues to weigh on investor confidence, suggests the analyst. however, it's thought management execution and exploration success underpin long-term potential.

Buy rating with an unchanged 6c target price.

This report was published on August 26, 2025.

Target price is $0.06 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0.02
If HGO meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.33.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HLO    HELLOWORLD TRAVEL LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism - Overnight Price: $1.79

Jarden rates ((HLO)) as Overweight (2) -

Helloworld Travel reported in-line FY25 results, with earnings (EBITDA) at the midpoint of guidance at $60.6m, which was a decline of -8.6% on the prior year despite "good" margins, Jarden comments.

TTV fell -8.6% on lower traveller numbers and a change in mix to mid-haul from long-haul, with airfare deflation.

Management expects an improved performance for FY26. Air departure bookings are already up 11% year-to-date, with 15 new stores planned.

Jarden lifts its EPS forecasts by 6.5% for FY26 and 2% for FY27. No change to Overweight rating and $2.80 target price. Analyst coverage is transferred.

This report was published on August 26, 2025.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $1.79 Difference: $1.01
If HLO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.24, suggesting upside of 24.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 17.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.2, implying annual growth of 0.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

Forecast for FY27:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 EPS of 18.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.4, implying annual growth of 1.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IDX    INTEGRAL DIAGNOSTICS LIMITED

Healthcare services - Overnight Price: $2.88

Jarden rates ((IDX)) as Buy (1) -

Integral Diagnostics reported better-than-expected FY25 earnings, with net profit after tax assisted by lower depreciation, according to Jarden.

The outlook for FY26 relies on MRI deregulation, the National Lung Screening Program, the GP Bulk Billing program, as well as synergy capture and other factors, including slowing capex to -$45m-$55m from around -$65m.

Positively, labour costs have slowed into FY26, but any impacts will take time, commentary highlights, as will the spread of MRI deregulation benefits.

Jarden lowers its EPS forecasts by -7.3% for FY26 and -5.4% for FY27. Buy retained. Target falls to $3.41 from $3.45.

This report was published on August 27, 2025.

Target price is $3.41 Current Price is $2.88 Difference: $0.53
If IDX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.35, suggesting upside of 15.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 9.30 cents and EPS of 14.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.2, implying annual growth of 768.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.9.

Forecast for FY27:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 18.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.0, implying annual growth of 21.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Wilsons rates ((IDX)) as Downgrade to Market Weight from Overweight (3) -

Wilsons notes Integral Diagnostics' FY25 revenue rose 33% to $628m, missing its forecast by -1%. Revenue excluding Capitol Health grew only 7% to $501m, indicating organic growth lagged system growth.

EBITDA was up 37% to $127m, beating the broker's forecast by 4%, and net profit was ahead by 17%. The broker notes the 2H results drove the outperformance.

The company didn't provide quantitative guidance but highlighted expectations for revenue growth and expansion in underlying EBITDA margin over time. 

The broker revised forecasts to incorporate additional synergies from the merger and lifted group margin profile, resulting in a 10-21% increase in underlying EPS forecasts for FY26-27.

Target increases to $3.00 from $2.75. Rating downgraded to Market Weight from Overweight.

This report was published on August 27, 2025.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.88 Difference: $0.12
If IDX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.35, suggesting upside of 15.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 8.50 cents and EPS of 13.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.2, implying annual growth of 768.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.9.

Forecast for FY27:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 9.50 cents and EPS of 15.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.0, implying annual growth of 21.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IGO    IGO LIMITED

Nickel - Overnight Price: $4.97

Canaccord Genuity rates ((IGO)) as Hold (3) -

IGO Ltd's FY25 EBITDA came in at -$43m vs pre-reported $14m, and unsurprisingly, missed both Canaccord Genuity and the consensus forecasts. The driver was a $58m increase in nickel rehabilitation provisions.

That flowed to the net profit line and missed expectations. The broker notes the share of loss from TLEA was -$642m, a sharp reversal from $553m profit received in FY24.

Net debt is now $75m after excluding $280m cash from the $355m debt position. While the result was heavily impacted by impairments and provisions, the broker reckons the near-term earnings profile is clouded too.

On the bright side, the lithium market is buoyant. No change to forecasts.

Hold. Target rises to $5.00 from $4.60.

This report was published on August 28, 2025.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.97 Difference: $0.03
If IGO meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.67, suggesting downside of -4.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 49.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 119.0.

Forecast for FY27:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.3, implying annual growth of 322.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.2.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

INA    INGENIA COMMUNITIES GROUP

Aged Care & Seniors - Overnight Price: $5.75

Jarden rates ((INA)) as Overweight (2) -

Jarden retains an Overweight rating on Ingenia Communities and lifts the target price to $7.10 from $6.50, post what is considered management continuing to deliver on strategy with robust underlying profit growth in FY25.

FY26 guidance also came in better than anticipated at 32.5c-34c, with the analyst believing there is further upside potential if market conditions remain strong.

Jarden raises its funds from operations forecasts by 5% for FY26, while FY27 is left unchanged.

This report was published on August 26, 2025.

Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $5.75 Difference: $1.35
If INA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.26, suggesting upside of 9.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 10.10 cents and EPS of 33.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.6, implying annual growth of 3.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Forecast for FY27:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 10.60 cents and EPS of 37.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.0, implying annual growth of 13.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JIN    JUMBO INTERACTIVE LIMITED

Gaming - Overnight Price: $11.73

Jarden rates ((JIN)) as Buy (1) -

Jarden highlights an FY25 earnings beat from Jumbo Interactive and, like its peer The Lottery Corporation ((TLC)), the company performed well considering the soft jackpot activity. Results were boosted by higher digital penetration and robust cost management.

FY26 guidance seems conservative, with management inclined to invest more in marketing and abate market share loss since it has been regained. Marketing spend rises to 3-4% of TTV from 1.5-2%.

Jackpot activity is also expected to trend back to more normal levels. Jarden tweaks EPS forecasts by -0.1% for FY26-FY29.

Buy rating unchanged. Target slips to $13.20 from $13.40.

This report was published on August 26, 2025.

Target price is $13.20 Current Price is $11.73 Difference: $1.47
If JIN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.94, suggesting upside of 13.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 54.70 cents and EPS of 74.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.5, implying annual growth of 11.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Forecast for FY27:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 EPS of 87.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.9, implying annual growth of 13.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Wilsons rates ((JIN)) as Overweight (1) -

Wilsons observes Jumbo Interactive posted a solid earnings beat in FY25, with growth across all three divisions (Lottery Retailing, SaaS, Managed Services). EBITDA of $68.3m beat the broker's forecast by 1% and net profit was ahead by 3%.

While the disappointment was the lower FY26 EBITDA guidance of 46-50% vs the FY25 range of 51-53% due to higher marketing costs, the broker is seeing it as a strategic investment.

Importantly, the broker is optimistic about multiple growth levers in FY26, including  Powerball price increases, improved Lottery Retailing product mix, SaaS reseller agreements, and Managed Services expansion.

FY26-28 EBITDA forecasts trimmed by 4-6% due to higher marketing costs.

Overweight. Target cut to $13.99 from $14.38

This report was published on August 27, 2025.

Target price is $13.99 Current Price is $11.73 Difference: $2.26
If JIN meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.94, suggesting upside of 13.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 52.40 cents and EPS of 69.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.5, implying annual growth of 11.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Forecast for FY27:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 58.90 cents and EPS of 78.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.9, implying annual growth of 13.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LOV    LOVISA HOLDINGS LIMITED

Retailing - Overnight Price: $41.54

Canaccord Genuity rates ((LOV)) as Hold (3) -

Canaccord Genuity reiterates Lovisa Holdings' gross margin execution is outstanding, with sourcing/pricing discipline delivering powerful operating leverage. FY25 gross margin came at 82% in line with the broker's forecast, and up 20bps vs consensus.

Elevated cost of doing business, particularly in 2H25, weighed on EBIT margins despite strong revenue growth. Sales growth accelerated towards the end of FY25, with 2H25 registering 20% y/y growth vs 9% in 1H.

Store rollouts accelerated in 2H25, and FY25 saw net store growth of 131. In the first 8 weeks of FY26, store counts increased by a net 10, taking the network total to 1,041, with sales momentum also picking up pace.

The broker lifted FY26 EBITDA by 5% and FY27 by 2%.

Hold. Target rises to $37.60 from $28.70.

This report was published on August 28, 2025.

Target price is $37.60 Current Price is $41.54 Difference: minus $3.94 (current price is over target).
If LOV meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $38.70, suggesting downside of -5.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 89.30 cents and EPS of 94.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 44.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 101.0, implying annual growth of 29.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 87.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.7.

Forecast for FY27:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 97.30 cents and EPS of 108.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 120.2, implying annual growth of 19.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 100.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAD    MADER GROUP LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting - Overnight Price: $8.37

Moelis rates ((MAD)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Mader Group's FY25 results were in line with guidance and forecasts by Moelis, with revenue of $870m and profit of $57m.

Australia grew 17% on strong contributions from infrastructure, rail, and road, highlights the broker, while North America improved in the second half with 8% revenue growth and stable margins.

The group profit margin expanded to 6.6%, and a fully franked 4c dividend was declared.

Net debt fell to $8m from $23.2m in December, with the business on track for a net cash position within twelve months, suggests the analyst. Cash conversion of 101% supported $42.7m in operating cash flow, with cash of $24m at June end.

FY26 guidance targets at least $1bn in revenue and $65m profit, consistent with the five-year strategic plan, observes Moelis.

Moelis raises its target price to $8.29 from $6.83 reflecting stronger domestic momentum and higher utilisation of a growing workforce. and downgrades to a Hold rating from Buy.

This report was published on August 26, 2025.

Target price is $8.29 Current Price is $8.37 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If MAD meets the Moelis target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 8.80 cents and EPS of 31.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.24.

Forecast for FY27:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 8.80 cents and EPS of 37.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.50.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MVF    MONASH IVF GROUP LIMITED

Healthcare services - Overnight Price: $0.71

Wilsons rates ((MVF)) as Downgrade to Market Weight from Overweight (3) -

Wilsons downgraded Monash IVF to Market Weight from Overweight and cut the target price to $0.72, a -20% discount to discounted cash flow, from $1.25. 

The combination of patient volume decline, market share losses, weak pricing power, and negative operating leverage leaves the outlook too uncertain for a positive recommendation, the broker notes. 

M&A potential at depressed multiples is a reason to hold, but near-term earnings risk dominates, the broker adds.

FY25 revenue rose 7% y/y, meeting the broker's forecast but missing the consensus. The company is guiding to net profit of $20-23m in FY26, which implies -21.5% lower y/y.

The broker downgraded its net profit forecast by -29% y/y to $19.6m.

This report was published on August 25, 2025.

Target price is $0.72 Current Price is $0.71 Difference: $0.01
If MVF meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.92, suggesting upside of 27.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 3.50 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.3, implying annual growth of -17.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Forecast for FY27:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 3.70 cents and EPS of 5.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.9, implying annual growth of 11.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NAN    NANOSONICS LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices - Overnight Price: $4.29

Wilsons rates ((NAN)) as Overweight (1) -

Nanosonics' FY25 group revenue rose 17% to $199m, beating Wilsons' forecast by 2%. Operating cash flow was a solid beat, pushing the cash position to $162m.

FY26 revenue guidance range is $215-223m, and assumes flat product sales at the bottom end and price increases. The broker is forecasting $215.7m revenue, estimating 2-4% lift in Trophon sales, offsetting the delay in Coris revenue.

The implied EBIT guidance is $14.4-20.7m, and the broker is forecasting $15.5m, leaving scope for upgrades.

Overall, the broker reckons Trophon EBIT momentum, combined with the SaaS layer from T2+/T3, underpins confidence in accelerating medium-term earnings.

Overweight. Target rises to $6.39 from $6.00.

This report was published on August 27, 2025.

Target price is $6.39 Current Price is $4.29 Difference: $2.1
If NAN meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.68, suggesting upside of 8.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 78.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.5, implying annual growth of 10.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 57.3.

Forecast for FY27:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 55.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.3, implying annual growth of 24.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 46.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NEU    NEUREN PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences - Overnight Price: $19.61

Wilsons rates ((NEU)) as Overweight (1) -

Neuren Pharmaceuticals' 1H25 royalties revenue fell -5% short of Wilsons' forecast, EBITDA missed but net profit was ahead. The company finished 1H26 with $300m net cash, up 26% y/y.

The broker expects strong 2H momentum, supported by field-force expansion and direct-to-consumer marketing. Royalty outlook remains attractive, while the recent initiation of the PMS Phase III study for NNZ-2591 sets up a transformational data readout in 2H27.

The broker sees significant optionality from additional indications, leveraging paediatric rare disease designations and regulatory incentives.

No milestone receipt is expected in 2H, but in FY26, the broker is factoring in US$35m receipt triggered by the first Daybue sales outside the US. A second milestone of US$50m is expected in FY28.

Overweight. Target unchanged at $26.50.

This report was published on August 28, 2025.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $19.61 Difference: $6.89
If NEU meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $24.70, suggesting upside of 27.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 20.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 94.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.4, implying annual growth of -87.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 134.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 32.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 60.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.3, implying annual growth of 124.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 59.9.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NUZ    NEURIZON THERAPEUTICS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences - Overnight Price: $0.15

Petra Capital rates ((NUZ)) as Buy (1) -

Moelis highlights Neurizon Therapeutics is approaching a key milestone with the FDA decision on its IND for NUZ-001 expected by October 3.

The deferral of the decision relates to a heavy workload at the FDA, not the quality of management's response, highlights the broker.

This decision will determine whether dosing can commence in the Healey ALS trial, a study designed to accelerate the development of potential treatments for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS).

This trial is considered by Petra Capital an important step toward advancing NUZ-001 as a potential disease-modifying therapy.

Management has confirmed readiness to begin dosing in the December quarter if approval is granted.

A decision could even come in late September, highlights Petra Capital, with a recent ALS IND clearance for Coya Therapeutics providing a positive precedent.

Neurizon Therapeutics' FY25 net loss of -$16.6m was in line with forecasts, while pro forma cash of $5.7m, including a loan against the R&D tax rebate, is expected to fund operations through the IND inflexion point. An R&D rebate of $4.1m is expected in 1H26.

The broker's target price rises to 52c from 50c. Buy rating is maintained.

This report was published on August 27, 2025.

Target price is $0.52 Current Price is $0.15 Difference: $0.37
If NUZ meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 247% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OBM    ORA BANDA MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver - Overnight Price: $0.91

Moelis rates ((OBM)) as Buy (1) -

Ora Banda Mining reported FY25 earnings (EBITDA) of $184.6m were ahead of the $174m estimate by Moelis, while profit before tax was $113.7m versus $111.1m expected.

Profit after tax of $79.6m was below forecast due to tax adjustments, though reported profit was boosted to $186.1m from impairment reversals, observe the analysts. Operating cash flow (OCF) was $190.4m, slightly ahead of expectation.

While earnings were modestly better, much of the upside came from accounting factors rather than operational outperformance, notes Moelis. Tax recognition remains difficult to predict.

The broker retains a Buy rating and a target price of 85c.

This report was published on August 27, 2025.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.91 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If OBM meets the Moelis target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.22.

Forecast for FY27:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.29.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PDN    PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED

Uranium - Overnight Price: $8.02

Canaccord Genuity rates ((PDN)) as Buy (1) -

Canaccord Genuity gives a pass mark to Paladin Energy's FY25 result, given the scale of transformation, with ramp-up at Langer Heinrich mine, Fission acquisition completion, and setbacks.

FY25 revenue was in line with consensus, though higher than the broker's forecast on accounting of loan repayment. Cost of sales was in line, and attributable net profit was broadly in line.

The company provided an update on Patterson Lake South, which saw a lift in cash cost and initial capex. The broker's forecasts incorporate a buffer over that in terms of first production, opex and capex.

Buy. Target rises to $13.05 from $12.60.

This report was published on August 29, 2025.

Target price is $13.05 Current Price is $8.02 Difference: $5.03
If PDN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.73, suggesting upside of 10.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 17.36 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 46.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 58.9.

Forecast for FY27:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.77 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 82.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.6, implying annual growth of 389.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PFP    PROPEL FUNERAL PARTNERS LIMITED

Consumer Products & Services - Overnight Price: $5.05

Moelis rates ((PFP)) as Buy (1) -

FY25 results for Propel Funeral Partners exceeded guidance, with revenue of $225.8m above the $220-225m range and up 8% year-on-year, observes Moelis. Earnings (EBITDA) of $56.2m also beat the $54-56m range, with a margin of 24.9%.

Funeral volumes rose 4.4% to 22,602, while organic volumes contracted -1%, less than expected, and comparable average revenue per funeral (ARPF) grew 2.3%. Net leverage was 2.1 times, well within the 5.0 times covenant limit, highlights the analyst.

Recent industry data show death volumes strengthening into mid-2025, supporting a more encouraging outlook for organic volume growth, the broker suggests.

Positively, July revenue of more than $21.5m reflected seasonally stronger funeral numbers, ARPF growth of 2.7%, and contributions from acquisitions, explains the analyst.

Demographic tailwinds from FY28-30 are expected to enhance organic volume growth, while acquisitions of around -$30m per year are assumed by the broker for FY26 and FY27.

Moelis maintains a Buy rating. Target $5.81.

This report was published on August 26, 2025.

Target price is $5.81 Current Price is $5.05 Difference: $0.76
If PFP meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.75, suggesting upside of 14.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 14.40 cents and EPS of 17.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.1, implying annual growth of 15.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.4.

Forecast for FY27:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 16.40 cents and EPS of 19.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.7, implying annual growth of 9.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.9.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PRU    PERSEUS MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver - Overnight Price: $4.11

Canaccord Genuity rates ((PRU)) as Buy (1) -

Perseus Mining's FY25 result was an overall beat vs Canaccord Genuity's forecasts, with net profit slightly higher and a final dividend of 7.5c compared with its estimate of 5c.

The company extended $100m share buyback, encouraged by cash balance of US$752m, excluding over US$100m in bullion and $168m in investments.

The broker expects stronger cash flow over FY26-27, and sees the company well-placed to pursue growth opportunities. FY26 production guidance is 400-440koz at US$1,460-1,620/oz cost, and the broker's estimate is 417koz at US$1,474/oz cost.

Buy. Target unchanged at $5.80.

This report was published on August 28, 2025.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $4.11 Difference: $1.69
If PRU meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.11, suggesting downside of -1.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 6.20 cents and EPS of 49.61 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Forecast for FY27:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 6.20 cents and EPS of 48.06 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.4, implying annual growth of -13.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RMD    RESMED INC

Medical Equipment & Devices - Overnight Price: $41.88

Wilsons rates ((RMD)) as Overweight (1) -

Following a full review of ResMed's FY25 results, Wilsons lifted FY26-27 sales forecasts by 1.6%. EPS forecast for FY26 lifted by 7.8% and FY27 by 8.8%.

Overweight. Target rises to $50.00 from $43.50.

In early impressions, the broker commented:

4Q25 revenue and EPS beat its forecasts by 3% and 4%, respectively. Net profit also beat its estimate by 4% while cash flow rose 22% to US$539m.

Gross margin was 60.8% in 4Q, improving 230bps y/y, and the FY26 guidance was for further increase to 61-63%.

The broker believes there's scope for even higher gross margin of 63-64% over the forecast period on manufacturing and distribution efficiencies.

This report was published on August 4, 2025.

Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $41.88 Difference: $8.12
If RMD meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $48.57, suggesting upside of 16.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 37.98 cents and EPS of 170.05 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 169.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.6.

Forecast for FY27:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 40.61 cents and EPS of 192.22 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 188.2, implying annual growth of 10.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SCG    SCENTRE GROUP

REITs - Overnight Price: $4.06

Jarden rates ((SCG)) as Overweight (2) -

Scentre Group remains an attractive proposition, according to Jarden, with an expected three-year compound growth rate in funds from operations of around 6.4% and a good risk profile from a portfolio construction angle.

The outlook for the retail sector is positive, which is expected to transpose to good trading conditions for the group's retail tenants, as evidenced by occupancy up 10bps to 99.7%.

Management is recycling assets, including the sale of a 25% stake in Chermside for $683m on a yield of 5%.

No change to Overweight rating. Target rises to $4.45 from $4.25.

This report was published on August 26, 2025.

Target price is $4.45 Current Price is $4.06 Difference: $0.39
If SCG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.04, suggesting upside of 0.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 17.70 cents and EPS of 22.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.6, implying annual growth of 11.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 18.10 cents and EPS of 23.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.2, implying annual growth of 7.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SDV    SCIDEV LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers - Overnight Price: $0.32

Canaccord Genuity rates ((SDV)) as Buy (1) -

SciDev's FY25 revenue met Canaccord Genuity's forecast but EBITDA was a slight miss. Operating expenses were higher than expected, though some of them related to costs incurred in anticipation of an earnings upswing.

The outlook commentary was upbeat, with FY26 revenue guidance of $120–140m, up 26% at midpoint. The broker also highlights a leaner cost base and improving operating leverage.

Structural regulatory and environmental tailwinds and acquisitive growth appetite also add to the positive thesis.

Buy. Target unchanged at 60c.

This report was published on August 28, 2025.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.28
If SDV meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 87% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.91.

Forecast for FY27:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SFR    SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED

Copper - Overnight Price: $12.36

Canaccord Genuity rates ((SFR)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Sandfire Resources' FY25 net profit of US$90m missed Canaccord Genuity's and the consensus forecasts on higher net finance and income tax expenses. Free cash flow was ahead on strong contributions from Matsa and Motheo.

Revenue and EBITDA were pre-reported. No dividend was declared in line with expectations.

The company provided operating cost guidance with 10% increase expected across both operations. The broker expects Motheo costs to rise by 10% in FY26 and Matsa's to be flat in EUR terms, but 10% higher in USD terms.

Target rises to $12.50 from $12.00. Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy.

This report was published on August 28, 2025.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $12.36 Difference: $0.14
If SFR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.00, suggesting downside of -3.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 15.50 cents and EPS of 74.41 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8.

Forecast for FY27:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 15.50 cents and EPS of 105.41 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.5, implying annual growth of 23.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SHL    SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED

Healthcare services - Overnight Price: $23.75

Wilsons rates ((SHL)) as Overweight (1) -

Wilsons revised forex estimates in its forecasts for Sonic Healthcare, resulting in revisions to forecasts.

The AUD/USD exchange rate is assumed at 0.64, AUD/EUR at 0.55, AUD/GBP 0.48, AUD/CHF 0.52 and AUD/NZD 1.10.

The revisions resulted in a 3% lift to FY26 group revenue and a 4% rise to EPS. For FY26, the group revenue is unchanged, but EPS is trimmed by -1%.

Overweight. Target unchanged at $29.

This report was published on September 1, 2025.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $23.75 Difference: $5.25
If SHL meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $28.30, suggesting upside of 23.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 110.00 cents and EPS of 119.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 120.9, implying annual growth of 13.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 109.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0.

Forecast for FY27:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 112.00 cents and EPS of 127.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 133.6, implying annual growth of 10.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 109.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SKS    SKS TECHNOLOGIES GROUP LIMITED

Technology - Overnight Price: $2.76

Wilsons rates ((SKS)) as Overweight (1) -

Having previously disclosed key FY25 numbers, Wilsons notes the focus of SKS Technologies' FY25 result was guidance, outlook and pipeline.

The FY26 revenue guidance of $300m was in line with the broker's forecast and slightly above consensus. Work in hand was $200m, covering 67% of the FY26 guidance.

The company flagged significant and accelerating growth forecasts in the data centre sector, driving rapidly accelerating pipeline growth. The broker estimates FY26 revenue to rise 18% y/y to $310m, with a further 11% increase in FY27.

Overweight. Target rises to $3.14 from $2.91.

This report was published on August 27, 2025.

Target price is $3.14 Current Price is $2.76 Difference: $0.38
If SKS meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 7.40 cents and EPS of 16.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.73.

Forecast for FY27:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 8.40 cents and EPS of 18.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.76.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SLX    SILEX SYSTEMS LIMITED

Uranium - Overnight Price: $4.05

Canaccord Genuity rates ((SLX)) as Speculative Buy (1) -

After a period of research restriction, Canaccord Genuity has a Speculative Buy rating on Silex Systems and a target price of $6.64.

The broker notes the company remains on track to achieve TRL-6 by year-end (a key technical milestone) and has been invited to bid for up to US$900m in DOE Task Order 2 (TO2) funding under the US Low-Enriched Uranium program.

Commentary suggests the company is strategically well-positioned with a strong balance sheet of $210m cash following recent capital raising amid increasing urgency from the US to secure domestic nuclear fuel supply chains.

This report was published on August 28, 2025.

Target price is $6.64 Current Price is $4.05 Difference: $2.59
If SLX meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.17 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 186.64.

Forecast for FY27:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 90.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SOM    SOMNOMED LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices - Overnight Price: $0.74

Wilsons rates ((SOM)) as Overweight (1) -

Wilsons describes SomnoMed's FY25 result as a structural turnaround with proof of sustainable profitability, robust operating cash flow, and clear momentum in its core US and European businesses.

FY25 sales in the US rose 31% y/y, falling marginally short of the broker's forecast. Europe sales rose 17%, beating the broker's forecast while APAC fell short, despite 10% rise.

FY26 revenue and EBITDA guidance were higher than the broker's estimate, with the company on track for 10% EBITDA margin in FY27.

Overweight. Target rises to $1.00 from $0.80.

This report was published on August 29, 2025.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.74 Difference: $0.26
If SOM meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 67.27.

Forecast for FY27:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 49.33.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TLX    TELIX PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences - Overnight Price: $14.31

Wilsons rates ((TLX)) as Overweight (1) -

Telix Pharmaceuticals received a complete response letter from US FDA for ZIRCAIX related to chemistry, manufacturing and controls. Specifically, it requires demonstrating the product matches what was tested in Phase III.

Wilsons notes the company is seeking a Type A meeting as soon as possible, but such timelines are highly uncertain. As a result, the broker is now assuming a 12-month delay to commercialisation.

FY26 revenue forecast is trimmed by -12% and FY27 by -7%. Overweight. Target lowered to $27.33 from $30.00.

This report was published on August 29, 2025.

Target price is $27.33 Current Price is $14.31 Difference: $13.02
If TLX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 91% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 13.33 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 107.34.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 24.96 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 57.34.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TYR    TYRO PAYMENTS LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit - Overnight Price: $1.26

Wilsons rates ((TYR)) as Overweight (1) -

Wilsons highlights Tyro Payments' FY25 EBITDA beat guidance and consensus when adjusted for the -$2.5m one-off non-lending loss.

Total transaction value was flat y/y at $43bn, in line with the broker's forecast, but masked growth in 2H in hospitality and retail. FY26 gross profit guidance is for $230-240m.

The broker reckons the guidance is highly conservative, with early signs of recovery in consumer spending and reduced merchant churn as rate cuts begin to flow through.

Strong cost control, new vertical contributions, and optionality from two-way M&A underpin the Overweight rating.

Target lifted to $1.40 from $1.15.

This report was published on August 27, 2025.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.26 Difference: $0.14
If TYR meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.38, suggesting upside of 7.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.1, implying annual growth of 20.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.2.

Forecast for FY27:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.6, implying annual growth of 12.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WEB    WEB TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism - Overnight Price: $4.30

Jarden rates ((WEB)) as Overweight (2) -

Web Travel's AGM produced a softer-than-anticipated update, with TTV growth weakening since the FY25 result due to forex headwinds of -4% and challenges in the Middle East. TTV for FY26 is expected to be in the mid-high teens, at least $3.1bn versus consensus at $3.2bn.

There were no changes to the long-term TTV target of $10bn. News flow is expected to improve from here, with indications the global travel market is bottoming out.

Jarden lowers its net profit after tax forecasts by -9% for FY26 and -3% for FY27.

Overweight retained. Target slips to $5.30 from $5.40.

This report was published on August 26, 2025.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $4.30 Difference: $1
If WEB meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.98, suggesting upside of 39.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.4, implying annual growth of -53.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5.

Forecast for FY27:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 31.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.2, implying annual growth of 32.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WGX    WESTGOLD RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver - Overnight Price: $3.68

Canaccord Genuity rates ((WGX)) as Buy (1) -

Westgold Resources' FY25 revenue met Canaccord Genuity's forecast but net profit was a big miss due to higher depreciation. Final unfranked dividend of 3c was higher than the broker's estimate of 1.9c and the consensus of 1.5c.

The company ended FY25 with cash/bullion of $336m, $50m in drawn debt and $250m in available facilities. Share buyback of up to 5% of shares was announced.

The recently provided production guidance was retained, and capex and exploration guidance were unchanged.

The broker lifted FY26-27 cost forecasts by 2% and 3%, respectively, to allow for a more conservative estimate. Depreciation forecasts for FY26-28 are also raised.

Buy. Target trimmed to $5.10 from $5.25.

This report was published on August 28, 2025.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $3.68 Difference: $1.42
If WGX meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 44.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.36.

Forecast for FY27:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 57.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.46.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide experienced, intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.

This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.

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article 3 months old

The Short Report – 21 Aug 2025

FNArena's weekly update on short positions in the Australian share market.

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

See Guide further below (for readers with full access).

Summary:

Week Ending August 14th, 2025 (most recent data available through ASIC).

10%+

BOE 21.92%
PDN 18.40%
PLS 15.45%
IEL 13.46%
PNV 11.67%
MIN 11.59%
LIC 11.40%
CUV 10.83%

In: CUV
Out: SLX, LTR

9.0-9.9%

CTD 9.66%
SLX 9.03%

In: SLX

8.0-8.9%

PWH 8.39%
CTT 8.34%
ILU 8.26%
DYL 8.23%

In: ILU

7.0-7.9%

GYG 7.87%
BGL 7.75%
NAN 7.69%
LOT 7.57%
KAR 7.57%
NXT 7.43%
LTR 7.32%

In: LTR
Out: ILU, CU6

6.0-6.9%

DMP 6.93%
SGR 6.73%
CU6 6.43%
BRG 6.20%
VUL 6.02%

In: CU6, BRG, VUL
Out: IGO, VEA

5.0-5.9%

HLS 5.96%
VEA 5.94%
RIO 5.93%
APX 5.76%
MSB 5.69%
FLT 5.53%
ELD 5.50%
IGO 5.39%
GMD 5.29%
PEN 5.19%
MVF 5.14%
CIA 5.08%
TLX 5.02%

In: VEA, IGO, MVF
Out: BRG, CUV, VUL, LYC
 

ASX20 Short Positions (%)

Code Last Week Week Before Code Last Week Week Before
ALL 0.4 0.4 NAB 0.6 0.6
ANZ 0.6 0.5 QBE 0.1 0.3
BHP 0.8 0.8 RIO 5.9 5.8
BXB 0.8 0.7 STO 0.3 0.3
CBA 0.7 0.7 TCL 0.3 0.3
COL 0.3 0.4 TLS 0.3 0.3
CSL 0.6 0.6 WBC 0.5 0.5
FMG 1.9 1.8 WDS 3.3 3.5
GMG 0.6 0.6 WES 0.5 0.5
MQG 0.7 0.7 WOW 0.9 0.9

To see the full Short Report, please go to this link

Guide:

The Short Report draws upon data provided by the Australian Securities & Investment Commission (ASIC) to highlight significant weekly moves in short positions registered on stocks listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). Short positions in exchange-traded funds (ETF) and non-ordinary shares are not included. Short positions below 5% are not included in the table below but may be noted in the accompanying text if deemed significant.

Please take note of the Important Information provided at the end of this report. Percentage amounts in this report refer to percentage of ordinary shares on issue.

Stock codes highlighted in green have seen their short positions reduce in the week by an amount sufficient to move them into a lower percentage bracket. Stocks highlighted in red have seen their short positions increase in the week by an amount sufficient to move them into a higher percentage bracket. Moves in excess of one percentage point or more are discussed in the Movers & Shakers report below.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT THIS REPORT

The above information is sourced from daily reports published by the Australian Investment & Securities Commission (ASIC) and is provided by FNArena unqualified as a service to subscribers. FNArena would like to make it very clear that immediate assumptions cannot be drawn from the numbers alone.

It is wrong to assume that short percentages published by ASIC simply imply negative market positions held by fund managers or others looking to profit from a fall in respective share prices. While all or part of certain short percentages may indeed imply such, there are also a myriad of other reasons why a short position might be held which does not render that position “naked” given offsetting positions held elsewhere. Whatever balance of percentages truly is a “short” position would suggest there are negative views on a stock held by some in the market and also would suggest that were the news flow on that stock to turn suddenly positive, “short covering” may spark a short, sharp rally in that share price. However short positions held as an offset against another position may prove merely benign.

Often large short positions can be attributable to a listed hybrid security on the same stock where traders look to “strip out” the option value of the hybrid with offsetting listed option and stock positions. Short positions may form part of a short stock portfolio offsetting a long share price index (SPI) futures portfolio – a popular trade which seeks to exploit windows of opportunity when the SPI price trades at an overextended discount to fair value. Short positions may be held as a hedge by a broking house providing dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) underwriting services or other similar services. Short positions will occasionally need to be adopted by market makers in listed equity exchange traded fund products (EFT). All of the above are just some of the reasons why a short position may be held in a stock but can be considered benign in share price direction terms due to offsets.

Market makers in stock and stock index options will also hedge their portfolios using short positions where necessary. These delta hedges often form the other side of a client's long stock-long put option protection trade, or perhaps long stock-short call option (“buy-write”) position. In a clear example of how published short percentages can be misleading, an options market maker may hold a short position below the implied delta hedge level and that actually implies a “long” position in that stock.

Another popular trading strategy is that of “pairs trading” in which one stock is held short against a long position in another stock. Such positions look to exploit perceived imbalances in the valuations of two stocks and imply a “net neutral” market position.

Aside from all the above reasons as to why it would be a potential misconception to draw simply conclusions on short percentages, there are even wider issues to consider. ASIC itself will admit that short position data is not an exact science given the onus on market participants to declare to their broker when positions truly are “short”. Without any suggestion of deceit, there are always participants who are ignorant of the regulations. Discrepancies can also arise when short positions are held by a large investment banking operation offering multiple stock market services as well as proprietary trading activities. Such activity can introduce the possibility of either non-counting or double-counting when custodians are involved and beneficial ownership issues become unclear.

Finally, a simple fact is that the Australian Securities Exchange also keeps its own register of short positions. The figures provided by ASIC and by the ASX at any point do not necessarily correlate.

FNArena has offered this qualified explanation of the vagaries of short stock positions as a warning to subscribers not to jump to any conclusions or to make investment decisions based solely on these unqualified numbers. FNArena strongly suggests investors seek advice from their stock broker or financial adviser before acting upon any of the information provided herein.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.

FNArena is proud about its track record and past achievements: Ten Years On

Australian investors stay informed with FNArena – your trusted source for Australian financial news. We deliver expert analysis, daily updates on the ASX and commodity markets, and deep insights into companies on the ASX200 and ASX300, and beyond. Whether you're seeking a reliable financial newsletter or comprehensive finance news and detailed insights, FNArena offers unmatched coverage of the stock market news that matters. As a leading financial online newspaper, we help you stay ahead in the fast-moving world of Australian finance news.

article 3 months old

Rudi’s View: BlueScope Steel, IGO, GrainCorp, Pilbara Minerals, Santos & More

In today's edition:

-FNArena's August Results Monitor
-What The Experts Are Saying
-Review All-Weather Model Portfolio
-Best Buys & Conviction Calls

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

FNArena's August Results Monitor

The Australian corporate results season has officially started but, as per unofficial tradition, the pace of corporate releases remains rather glacial this early in the month.

By this time next week, the numbers will be a lot larger, as the bulk for local seasons is reserved for the final two weeks of the month.

FNArena is keeping a close watch daily: https://fnarena.com/index.php/reporting_season/

What The Experts Are Saying

An observation  from UBS:

"After a multi-year period of underperformance, gold equities (GDX Index) have outperformed the gold price by >40% YTD.

"In particular, the last three months have been very strong for equities, despite a largely rangebound gold price. However, this has largely been an international phenomenon, with Australian gold stocks lagging quite materially.

"Gold miners have had a poor track record in recent years resulting in valuation de-rating; but recent results were a net positive for the global gold miners, with the stocks generally delivering record Free Cash Flow, 2025 production/ cost guidance generally maintained (despite higher royalties), management teams demonstrating discipline with limited increases in capex & increasing cash returns."


UBS's preferred sector exposures are Barrick Mining, Endeavour, Kinross, AngloGold, & Franco-Nevada. None are listed locally.

****

This month's update on Morningstar's Best Stock Ideas in Australia has seen the removal oif IGO Ltd ((IGO)) from the list and the inclusion of Pilbara Minerals ((PLS)).

Among the many discussions whether the return of positive momentum for lithium prices and share prices of linked exposures might prove justified, and sustainable, or not, Morningstar simply sees the market taking a more optimistic stance.

Lithium demand is expected to triple by 2023 from levels registered in 2023 and Pilbara has mine reserves spanning twenty years, and more.

IGO Ltd also has exposure to lithium, of course, but the preference has been switched to Pilbara.

Morningstar's selection of Best Stock Ideas (Conviction Buy Calls by any other name, mostly chosen because of under-valuation):

-Auckland International Airport ((AIA))
-ASX Ltd ((ASX))
-Aurizon Holdings ((AZJ))
-Bapcor ((BAP))
-Dexus ((DXS))
-Domino's Pizza Enterprises ((DMP))
-Endeavour Group ((EDV))
-Fineos Corp ((FCL))
-IDP Education ((IEL))
-Pilbara Minerals
-Ramsay Health Care ((RHC))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))
-Spark New Zealand ((SPK))
-Woodside Energy ((WDS))

****

Equally noteworthy: we couldn't help but noticing the Conviction Buy list at Goldman Sachs specifically for ASX-listed exposures is now down to three and with Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield ((URW)) about to disappear from the local bourse, will that be two remnants only by month's end?

-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield

****

Investors looking for exposure to the steel sector are guided towards BlueScope Steel ((BSL)) in UBS's sector update this week. It's the only one with a Buy rating in the sector.

UBS does highlight short term the emand outlook, particularly in the US, is subdued due to global trade uncertainty and lower consumer/business confidence. Its optimism is based on the premise things will improve medium term.

Both Sims ((SGM)) and Vulcan Steel ((VSL)) are rated Neutral with the latter continuing to battle the absence of a V-shaped recovery in New Zealand.

****

The week past has seen a major change in view regarding the the ADNOC consortium's bid for Santos ((STO)) by stockbroker Morgans.

Up until now, the broker remained sceptical about the Treasurer and FIRB approving Santos becoming a foreign-owned key energy operator in the Australian landscape.

But with its balance sheet stretched and gas reserves constrained, Morgans can see the government turning more accommodative as the new owner would bring along deep pockets and most likely be willing to agree to some restriction (such as some reservations for domestic consumers).

The result has been a swift double-take upgrade in Morgans's rating to Accumulate from Trim. In the same vein, and with an oil price remaining under pressure, the broker has downgraded both Woodside Energy ((WDS)) and Karoon Gas ((KAR)) to Accumulate from Buy.

Irrespective of the weak pricing environment for oil, share prices have appreciated by a lot these past number of weeks, leading Morgans to suggest the easy gains have by now been made in this sector.

Elsewhere, every update on global opportunities inside the energy sector by RBC Capital features Woodside Energy, and only Woodside as far as ASX-listed exposures are concerned.

****

Bell Potter's selection of preferred stocks in the agriculture sector has seen the addition of GrainCorp ((GNC)).

Were already on the list:

-Bega Cheese ((BGA))
-Elders ((ELD))
-Nufarm ((NUF))
-Rural Funds Group ((RFF))

Elsewhere, Bell Potter analysts favour stocks exposed to a recovery in Out Of Home consumption, including Bega Cheese, Retail Food Group ((RFG)) and Noumi ((NOU)), and market leading discretionary retail exposures, including JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)), Universal Store Holdings ((UNI)), and Harvey Norman ((HVN)).

****

Not wanting to depress anyone's mood, but the following quote summarises UBS's outlook for US equities (lower, for now):

"US’ growth inflation mix is likely to worsen. Along with dampening earnings growth expectations, this should also lift equity volatility, which, in turn, would challenge the flow driven momentum trade buoying valuations.

"This drives us to call the market lower in the near-term and to expect it to remain below current levels even by end '25. We then see a smart recovery in H2 '26."


On UBS's projections, the S&P500 is en course for a correction to 5900 around late Q3/early Q4 before recovering to 6100 by end 2025 and 6800 by end 2026.

Peers at Citi have their own ideas:

"The S&P 500 continues to trade in “euphoric” conditions per our Levkovich Index. History shows that this entails higher volatility.

'Thus, while we are increasingly confident in the fundamental set up for index, we remain wary that much is already priced in. Thus, as we’ve been arguing, volatility should be expected, and bought into.

"Our base case year-end expectation for the S&P 500 is lifted to 6600. The new bull case is 7200, with bear case at 5600."


One more, from Wilsons:

"We see the 6-to-12-month outlook as decent.

Longer term the US market should"remain supported by significant structural technology sector tailwinds, so our caution is tactical rather than strategic."

In preparation of August:

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/08/13/rudi-interviewed-is-august-too-early/

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/08/06/rudis-view-five-bellwethers-for-august/

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/07/30/rudis-view-taking-stock-ahead-of-august/

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/07/24/rudis-view-bega-cheese-cettire-harvey-norman-sigma-siteminder-more/

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/07/23/rudis-view-extreme-bifurcation-ahead-of-august/

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/07/17/rudis-view-aussie-broadband-oohmedia-paladin-energy-seek-xero-more/

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/07/16/rudis-view-navigating-covid-legacies/

Review All-Weather Model Portfolio

The financial year ending on June 30th 2025 featured the return of Donald Trump in the White House and of extreme market volatility.

The second half of the year also saw doubt creeping into general sentiment towards AI and demand for data centres.

All in all, a gain of 13.85% (pre-fees) for the twelve months is not something to be unhappy about, right?

FY25 review of the All-Weather Model Portfolio: https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/download-article/?n=4B38C0EF-A173-8CE6-736A7AFC7B19FC49

Best Buys & Conviction Calls

Bell Potter's sector preferences for the financial year ahead.

Listed Investment Companies ((LICs)
-Australian Foundation Investment Company ((AFI))
-Metrics Master Income Trust ((MXT))
-MFF Capital Investments ((MFF))

Agricultural & Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG)
-Bega Cheese ((BGA))
-Rural Funds Group ((RFF))
-Elders ((ELD))

Technology
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))
-Gentrack ((GTK))
-Seek ((SEK))

Diversified Financials
-Cuscal ((CCL))
-Praemium ((PPS))
-Regal Partners ((RPL))

Real Estate
-Aspen Group ((APZ))
-Cedar Woods ((CWP))
-Region Group ((RGN))

Retail
-JB Hi-Fi ((JBH))
-Universal Store Holdings ((UNI))
-Propel Funeral Partners ((PFP))

Industrials
-LGI Ltd ((LGI))
-Environmental Group ((EGL))

Healthcare
-Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX))
-Neuren Pharmaceuticals ((NEU))
-Monash IVF ((MVF))

Gold
-Minerals 260 ((MI6))
-Santana Minerals ((SMI))
-Evolution Mining ((EVN))

Base Metals
-Aeris Resources ((AIS))
-Nickel Industries ((NIC))
-AIC Mines ((A1M))

Strategic Minerals & Processing Technologies
-Alpha HPA ((A4N))
-IperionX ((IPX))

Energy
-Boss Energy ((BOE))

Mining & Industrial Services
-Develop Global ((DVP))
-ALS Ltd ((ALQ))
-Duratec ((DUR))

****

Crestone's Best Sector Ideas:

-Ampol ((ALD))
-APA Group ((APA))
-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-Beach Energy ((BPT))
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Cochlear ((COH))
-CSL ((CSL))
-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-IGO Ltd ((IGO))
-James Hardie Industries ((JHX))
-Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Metcash ((MTS))
-Monadelphous Group ((MND))
-REA Group ((REA))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Xero ((XRO))

Crestone's selection for sustainable income:

-Amcor ((AMC))
-Ampol ((ALD))
-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-APA Group ((APA))
-Atlas Arteria ((ALX))
-Beach Energy ((BPT))
-BHP Group ((BHP))
-Car Group ((CAR))
-Coles Group ((COL))
-Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure ((DBI))
-Iress ((IRE))
-Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Metcash ((MTS))
-Mirvac Group ((MGR))
-Pro Medicus ((PME))
-QBE Insurance ((QBE))
-RAM Essential Services ((REP))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Tabcorp Holdings ((TAH))
-Telstra Group ((TLS))

****

Jarden's 18 Best Ideas among Australia's small caps ("emerging companies") includes the following Key Picks considered offering the highest potential return, in order of projected total investment reward:

-GQG Partners ((GQG))
-Dicker Data ((DDR))
-Universal Store Holdings ((UNI))
-Qualitas ((QAL))
-EVT Ltd ((EVT))
-Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI))
-Temple & Webster ((TPW))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))

The other ten stocks selected:

-Aussie Broadband ((ABB))
-Arena REIT ((ARF))
-Genesis Energy ((GNE))
-Harvey Norman ((HVN))
-Integral Diagnostics ((IDX))
-Karoon Energy ((KAR))
-Michael Hill ((MHJ))
-Pepper Money ((PPM))
-Symal Group ((SYL))
-Vault Minerals ((VAU))

****

Macquarie's small caps desk nominated its favourites (Best Picks) ahead of the August results season.

-Aussie Broadband ((ABB))
-Amotiv ((AOV))
-AUB Group ((AUB))
-Alpha HPA ((A4N))
-Bega Cheese ((BGA))
-Capstone Copper ((CSC))
-Codan ((CDA))
-Genesis Minerals ((GMD))
-Iluka Resources ((ILU))
-Integral Diagnostics ((IDX))
-Harvey Norman ((HVN))
-Jumbo Interactive ((JIN))
-Lovisa Holdings ((LOV))
-Maas Group ((MGH))
-Megaport (( MP1))
-Monadelphous ((MND))
-Neuren ((NEU))
-Nick Scali ((NCK))
-oOh!media ((OML))
-Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI))
-Qualitas ((QAL))
-Reliance Worldwide ((RWC))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))
-Summit Minerals ((SUM))
-Universal Store Holdings ((UNI))
-Ventia Services ((VNT))
-Web Travel Group ((WEB))

****

Morgans' selection of Best Ideas consists of the following 29 ASX-listed companies:

Acrow ((ACF))
ALS Ltd ((ALQ))
Amotiv ((AOV))
BHP Group ((BHP))
Collins Foods ((CKF))
Corporate Travel Management ((CTD))
CSL ((CSL))
Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure ((DBI))
Dexus Convenience Retail REIT ((DXC))
DigiCo Infrastructure REIT ((DGT))
EBR Systems ((EBR))
Elders ((ELD))
Goodman Group ((GMG))
Guzman y Gomez ((GYG))
James Hardie Industries ((JHX))
Light & Wonder ((LNW))
Lovisa Holdings ((LOV))
MA Financial Group ((MAF))
Megaport ((MP1))
Orica ((ORI))
Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI))
ResMed ((RMD))
South32 ((S32))
Treasury Wine Estates ((TWE))
Qualitas ((QAL))
Universal Store Holdings ((UNI))
Whitehaven Coal ((WHC))
WiseTech Global ((WTC))
Woodside Energy ((WDS))

****

Morgan Stanley's six Conviction stock picks that each represent a compelling individual investment case underpinned by idiosyncratic drivers and the ability to deliver earnings upside, believed to be underappreciated by the market.

-WiseTech Global ((WTC))
-Charter Hall Group ((CHC))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Life360 Inc ((360))
-Generation Development Group ((GDG))
-Data#3 ((DTL))

Morgan Stanley's Macro+ Focus List in Australia is currently made up of:

-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-Car Group ((CAR))
-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-GPT Group ((GPT))
-James Hardie Industries ((JHX))
-Orica ((ORI))
-Santos ((STO))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Xero ((XRO))

Morgan Stanley's Australia Macro+ Model Portfolio is currently made up of the following:

-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-CommBank ((CBA))
-National Australia Bank ((NAB))
-Westpac ((WBC))

-Macquarie Group ((MQG))

-Suncorp Group ((SUN))

-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-GPT Group ((GPT))
-Scentre Group ((SCG))
-Stockland ((STG))

-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-Eagers Automotive ((APE))
-CAR Group ((CAR))
-Domino's Pizza ((DMP))
-The Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Wesfarmers ((WES))
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))
-Xero ((XRO))

-James Hardie ((JHX))

-Amcor ((AMC))
-Cleanaway Waste Management ((CWY))
-Orica ((ORI))

-Coles Group ((COL))

-CSL ((CSL))
-ResMed ((RMD))

-AGL Energy ((AGL))
-Telstra ((TLS))
-Transurban ((TCL))

-BHP Group ((BHP))
-Newmont Corp ((NEM))
-Rio Tinto ((RIO))
-South32 ((S32))

-Santos ((STO))
-Woodside Energy ((WDS))

****

Ord Minnett's High Conviction calls (all nominations made by sector analysts on a 12 month horizon):

-Aussie Broadband ((ABB))
-Brazilian Rare Earths ((BRE))
-Bubs Australia ((BUB))
-Cuscal ((CCL))
-Qoria ((QOR))
-Regis Healthcare ((REG))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))
-Vault Minerals ((VAU))
-Waypoint REIT ((WPR))
-Zip Co ((ZIP))

****

Shaw and Partners' Large Caps Model Portfolio:

-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-BlueScope Steel ((BSL))
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Dexus ((DXS))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Newmont Corp ((NEM))
-South32 ((S32))

Shaw and Partners' emerging companies Top Picks:

-AML3D ((AL3))
-Australian Vanadium ((AVL))
-Bannerman Energy ((BMN))
-Chrysos ((C79))
-Humm Group ((HUM))
-Metro Mining ((MMI))
-Santana Minerals ((SMI))
-Southern Cross Electrical ((SXE))

****

UBS's Most Preferred Stocks in Australia

In Resources segment:
-BHP Group ((BHP))
-BlueScope Steel ((BSL))
-Newmont Corp ((NEM))
-Orica ((ORI))
-Origin Energy ((ORG))

Among Financials & A-REITs:
-Dexus ((DXS))
-Lifestyle Communities ((LIC))
-Mirvac Group ((MGR))
-Medibank Private ((MPL))
-QBE Insurance ((QBE))
-Steadfast Group ((SDF))

Among Industrials:
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Collins Foods ((CKF))
-Cochlear ((COH))
-Coles Group ((COL))
-NextDC ((NXT))
-REA Group ((REA))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-SGH Ltd ((SGH))
-TechnologyOne ((TNE))
-Telstra Corp ((TLS))
-Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX))
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))

UBS's Least Preferred Stocks in Australia

-Aurizon Holdings ((AZJ))
-ASX Ltd ((ASX))
-Bank of Queensland ((BOQ))
-CommBank ((CBA))
-Charter Hall Group ((CHC))
-Computershare ((CPU))
-Evolution Mining ((EVN))
-Temple & Webster ((TPW))

****

Wilsons' Key Investment Opportunities:

-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))
-Woolworths ((WOW))

High conviction investment ideas:

-ARB Corp ((ARB))
-Maas Group ((MGH))
-Nanosonics ((NAN))
-Ridley Corp ((RIC))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))

Speculative idea:

-Clarity Pharmaceuticals ((CU6))

Wilsons' Focus Portfolio currently contains the following:

-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-BHP Group ((BHP))
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Car Group ((CAR))
-Collins Foods ((CKF))
-CSL ((CSL))
-Evolution Mining ((EVN))
-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT ((HCW))
-Hub24 ((HUB))
-James Hardie ((JHX))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Northern Star Resources ((NST))
-Pinnacle Investment Managers ((PNI))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Sandfire Resources ((SFR))
-Santos ((STO))
-South32 ((S32))
-TechnologyOne ((TNE))
-Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX))
-The Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Westpac Bank ((WBC))
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))
-Woolworths Group ((WOW))
-Worley ((WOR))
-Xero ((XRO))

Paying subscribers have 24/7 access to my curated lists, including All-Weather Performers at: https://fnarena.com/index.php/analysis-data/all-weather-stocks/

(Do note that, in line with all my analyses, appearances and presentations, all of the above names and calculations are provided for educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions.)  

P.S. I - All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert for my Rudi's View stories. Go to My Alerts (top bar of the website) and tick the box in front of 'Rudi's View'. You will receive an email alert every time a new Rudi's View story has been published on the website. 

P.S. II - If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.

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Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.

FNArena is proud about its track record and past achievements: Ten Years On

Australian investors stay informed with FNArena – your trusted source for Australian financial news. We deliver expert analysis, daily updates on the ASX and commodity markets, and deep insights into companies on the ASX200 and ASX300, and beyond. Whether you're seeking a reliable financial newsletter or comprehensive finance news and detailed insights, FNArena offers unmatched coverage of the stock market news that matters. As a leading financial online newspaper, we help you stay ahead in the fast-moving world of Australian finance news.

article 3 months old

Rudi Interviewed: Is August Too Early?

It has become the 'unofficial' tradition in recent years: an interview with Livewire Markets ahead of yet another corporate reporting season in Australia.

This a sub-edited transcript from the pre-August results season interview that took place on August 5. 

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

It has become the 'unofficial' tradition in recent years: an interview with Livewire Markets ahead of yet another corporate reporting season in Australia.

Below is a sub-edited transcript from the pre-August results season interview that took place on August 5. The video is available on Livewire and on YouTube.

James Marley: Welcome to the Rules of Investing, Podcast that gets inside the minds of leading investors, economists and industry experts, brought to you by Livewire.

My name is James Marley. I'm going to be your host today. With reporting season on the ASX about to kick into full swing, my guest today is someone that has crunched the data on more results and the reactions from the market than just about anyone else.

Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor of research website FNArena and popular contributor to Livewire, is with me to help you get match fit and in the zone for the upcoming reporting season.

From the big picture on current valuations, the impacts of AI and the stocks to watch in August, this is going to be a cracking session.

Now, remember, if you're not subscribed to the Rules of Investment podcast, you can find it in all the major podcasting platforms, or you can sign up to Livewire Markets.

It's free. It's easy to register, and we'd love to have you on board. Now with that, I'd like to extend a very warm welcome to Rudi for our regular reporting season preview.

Rudi, great to have you online, and thanks so much for your time.

Rudi Filapek-Vandyck: My pleasure. The sound you're hearing is the rain coming down in Sydney on the moment this interview starts.

They're saying in investing timing is important. Apparently, with recording, it's equally as important.

James: I thought it was a sign that we're about to get rained down with a deluge of information on reporting season, and you're going to be our little safe harbour to help us get through it?

Rudi: I will definitely do my best, but after such an intro, half my work has already been done!

Valuations Are High, What Gives?

James: Well, we were having a chat about what will we talk about today? And you sent through a few points. One starting point are valuations. Are they high? Are they stretched? It's topical for investors. Difficult one to answer.

I'm going to draw attention to an article that my colleague Kerry Sun put together recently, which effectively told people to stop calling markets expensive. They're at all-time highs but the crux of the article is, drawing from UBS research, the market has evolved. Companies have gotten better.

Therefore, we need to think about market valuations in a different light. So Rudi, does that mean we need to get used to paying higher multiples, should we be more comfortable with higher valuations?

Rudi: I think the answer is yes, under certain circumstances, not always, but we definitely need to stop calling the market overvalued simply because the valuation multiples are higher than what we are used to.

It is being said that generals always fight the last war. I've come to the conclusion that most investors invest in yesterday's market, and they need to invest in tomorrow's market, of course, because it's all about looking forward.

 I can't emphasise enough how happy and how glad I am that stories like that and analyses like that are being published, not just by me, but by others as well.

Because I do think a whole change still needs to take place in the psyche of investors. Australia being a typical value-oriented market for such a long time, investors are constantly thinking that something trading on a PE of six or nine is, by default, a better long-term investment than something that's trading on 96 times.

We clearly saw over the past 15 years or so that's no longer true. In addition to all the arguments mentioned --and I completely subscribe to those arguments-- I do think there's also a very simple, easier way to understand the metrics for today's market.

We still reason in averages. We judge the market by the average PE ratio for the ASX200 and we judge the environment for corporate Australia by the average EPS growth forecast.

In both cases, the market is so polarised these days, and it has been for such a long time. The market has at least been polarised ever since covid hit. That's 2020, five years ago now.

On my analysis, the polarisation is quite extreme in today's market. What that means also is those averages we are used to watch, the PE ratios and the average EPS forecast, you can't take them at face value anymore.

A big part of the reason why the PE ratio looks this high for the Australian market is because we have 11% --Commbank ((CBA))-- of the index probably trading at the highest valuation any of us has seen in our lifetime.

At 11% of the index, of course, it's going to have a big influence on the average PE ratio, and that's one of the reasons why the PE ratio is that high.

The bigger question, I think, is should the market sell off because CBA is trading at an all-time high?

I know sentiment is important, but I would argue it doesn't need to. The other element is resources remain a very important input in Australia.

They are the second biggest index weight, and they too have an outsized impact on all the averages we can calculate for the index.

So I would often smile when the next person is calling for the bubble to burst.

I don't think there's a bubble. I think it's way too early to say there's a bubble. Are valuations high? Yes, they are, but there are particular reasons why that potentially can be justified.

 I'm sure we'll talk about it over the next however long this interview takes.

Why Is Corporate Australia Not Growing Earnings?

James: One of the things you mentioned there was earnings. And we get told, as investors, over time, where earnings go so too will share prices.

Same note from UBS, or a more recent note perhaps, pointed out we're about to get the second consecutive year of negative earnings growth for the ASX.

Now, to your point, that's on average, but we've got all-time highs being hit at the time when earnings are weak. So, what gives?

Rudi: Again, yes, you're right at face value. We are at an all-time high, with a PE ratio we very seldom see, on average, and August will mark the third consecutive year of negative EPS growth on average for the local market.

So you would think it's all about multiple expansion; there's no earnings growth here.

But that's not true when you look below the surface. Below the surface, the two largest components of the index locally, banks and resources, are weighing negatively on the average.

The banks are positive for this year, but it's not much, and the resources --again-- negative, both the mining companies and energy companies.

If you strip those out, you see the growth forecast for corporate Australia outside of those two sectors, is actually not that bad at all.

It's more in the mid to high single digits EPS growth. Long term the average in Australia is 5% EPS growth per year.

If the forecast now is six or seven or eight, that means there are large parts of the Australian economy that are performing above average.

Coming back to the polarisation that I touched upon earlier, what you will find in sectors is that one company has performed and the other one hasn't. If you want to drill down to it, it's usually that one company has performed operationally and the other one hasn't.

So, earnings do count, not only in August, but also for the in between seasons.

eye on value

August Too Early?

James: Banks, it's going to be hard for them to meaningfully move their earnings. They're flat-ish type businesses and have been for a long time. Resources, highly cyclical. Can you see a turnaround story in that earnings outlook? People have been waiting for that broader earnings picture to move into positive territory again. Are we going to see it this August?

Rudi: Its going to be interesting. My view in advance, I think the question that will come to the fore for August is: is it not too early still?

That will be the question that will be asked for a lot of things. We've now had at least three years of large caps on average outperforming small caps. Is that going to reverse?

I think the question will be: is it not too early for that?

We have subdued consumer spending. We have profit warnings from consumer spending-related companies in Australia. Is that going to turn around in August?

I think the question will be: isn't it too early yet for that?

I also think the whole revival of the resources sector is most likely too early.

Are we going to see a big improvement in earnings forecasts? I think it's too early in August; the RBA has been very reluctant in helping out, Trump tariffs, it hasn't all helped.

I think maybe a more logical time will be February next year, instead of August this year, which clearly will pose some challenges for investors.

You can also expand that to other sectors and to other themes. Are we going to see a broadening out of the advantages, the benefits, the applications of AI across corporate Australia?

Probably a little bit too early to see concrete results of that. If you take the broad view this whole AI theme at some stage will stumble and at least have a pause, but that too, I think, will be too early for August. I think that will continue.

So, I think the challenges are lining up, and I know the usual reflex of investors is trying to figure out which companies haven't performed yet -- they might perform in August.

I think the danger is they will say goodbye too early to companies that have performed and that still have a lot of firepower to continue performing.

If you look, for example, at the three corporate results just prior to this interview, Champion Iron ((CIA)) and Rio Tinto ((RIO)), two commodities companies, two iron ore producers, two disappointments.

Both share prices went down. Both share prices have not performed over the year past.

We also had ResMed ((RMD)) reaching an all-time high, and it comes out with a result better than expected. Share price up.

I think there's a lesson here for investors. Don't say too early to companies that have performed that this is the end of the road, and don't think too easily that those who are lagging that their time has come to perform now.

August might just be too early for that.

How To Deal With Volatility?

James: Interesting. From the US perspective, we also saw some of the big tech companies match up. Microsoft performing really, really well. We had the IPO of Figma, which was just stratospheric in terms of returns.

It connects to that theme around AI and some of that tech momentum you've talked about.

Volatility. It's been a big part of prior Australian reporting seasons and it has been evident in the US.

Do you think that that's going to be a feature again, and how do you deal with it? Any tips for investors on how to take advantage of it?

Rudi: My personal position is probably the best starting point. The portfolio I manage currently has 10% in cash. It was a bit more, but we did apply for extra shares in Xero ((XRO)) recently.

So, we have 10% in cash and, at this point in time, no intention of doing anything with it because I worry a little bit we might need it in in August or in September, because it might well get that volatile.

If it happens in the right stocks, then we'll be buying and that's basically the attitude you need to have as an investor.

What worries me a little bit in that regard, and that's backed up by research done by the likes of UBS, and I believe Morgan Stanley did something similar as well, is the average volatility in the last two seasons has picked up dramatically, like: really significantly.

That basically means if, somehow, releases do not quite meet expectations, the punishment can be extraordinary.

That is obviously devastating if you're holding the wrong stocks for the wrong reasons, and you have no confidence in them because there are your losses, even if you don't take them.

But for the right stocks, if you are confident it's a temporary setback and the long-term story remains intact, the obvious observation to make, of course, that it's an opportunity.

I am often being asked, which ones do you think will fail, and which ones are your favourites?

I've been doing this for such a long time, and I've stopped predicting, because you simply don't know.

In a very simplistic proposition: I'm still a long-term shareholder in ResMed. The shares are now up 100% in two years.

I have no intention of saying goodbye to them. The shares rallied very strongly over the past month into this result, and that normally can make you a little bit worried, because who tells you that that will not lead to a disappointment on the day?

In this case, it hasn't, but there's no guarantees when you put all the elements together. Whether that matters in the immediate term is very much dependent on why you own your stocks, what's your horizon, what does your portfolio look like?

And probably the most important thing is: how large is your confidence in that whatever happens in August does not necessarily reflect on the year ahead or the two years ahead?

Is August Key For CSL?

James: Let's dive into a couple of important results and key results for people to keep an eye on. I've picked CSL ((CSL)). I know it's a company you followed for a few years.

We had a number of commentators and fund managers on Livewire saying this result really matters for CSL. Investors have been patient. The stock's been trading sideways for an extended period.

It's time for management to deliver on some of the promises around better margins and growth. What's your take on the outlook for CSL?

Rudi: I'm not so sure whether that's true. I think those people might be expecting too much.

The reason why is we still have Trump in the White House and I do know Trump goes after healthcare costs in the US and is targeting Big Pharma.

How much of that will also impact on CSL, or will it exclude CSL, etc, etc?

The share price hasn't performed post covid. What people forget and it's easy to ignore, is this company's growing at double digits.

Underneath the share price is a company that grows at double digits. It did that last year, and it has guided to do that this year, and it probably will equally guide to do that next year.

There's only so much the company can control. On one end, you're right. There is a lot of insecurity if you are inside the CSL bunker and there are signs I've noticed over the year that they're definitely feeling the pressure.

They definitely feel like they need to do something, because shareholders, clearly, they're not sitting there to have a share price that doesn't move.

But in the same respect, I am very cognisant of the fact it's not all in their power. They would love to be in a position like ResMed is, where they can just have solid sales and an increased margin.

Similar as with BHP Group ((BHP)), where they had to increase capex and postpone the second expansion project in Canada with Jansen potash, the disappointment from CSL was that the return to the pre-covid profit margin has been delayed -- twice.

From that perspective, they probably need to come out and say we're on track now and not delaying by another 12 months.

That would definitely be a big disappointment. If they read the room correctly, that's exactly what they shouldn't do in August.

Again, we will have to see. If it wasn't for the whole anti-vax movement in the US that is now in charge of the government, I would not be that negative about CSL. I'm not negative now, but I am cognisant of the fact they have no control over certain things that can have a big impact still on market sentiment, at the very least.

What I do notice is that in July, both ResMed and CSL share prices have rallied quite strongly. Clearly, the market, for some reason, felt more comfortable in owning those shares after June than before and why exactly that is, I don't know.

All I know is Trump hasn't changed his views. But maybe, maybe there's more confidence out there that whatever comes out of CSL operationally will not be bottom of the barrel.

Corporate Results In Focus

James: Rudi, gives us a couple of stocks that you've got your little Rudi microscope on for reporting season; that you think could be interesting to keep an eye on?

Rudi: I'm still very much into AI mode. I still believe the scepticism that has descended upon the Australian share market will be proven misplaced.

You'll find that all those stocks that last year could do no wrong because they had an AI label attached to them, the whole atmosphere around them has changed this year.

I'll definitely be on the lookout and not just the likes of Goodman Group ((GMG)), NextDC ((NXT)), Macquarie Technology ((MAQ)), Infratil ((IFT)), and others, but also the technology companies like WiseTech Global ((WTC)) that will be applying AI fully through its operations.

The AI discussion in the US is much livelier than it is in Australia. In the US, those who are convinced that AI will have a profound influence on the economy over the years ahead, they are toying with the idea that companies will be successful.

These companies can be in finance. They can be in the insurance sector. They don't necessarily have to be one of the big tech companies.

If companies are successful in applying AI, their revenue will go up and their margins will increase. If you have the combination of those two, then whatever is priced in today will not look expensive in two or three years' time.

This is something investors in Australia should consider as well. Again, I think it will be too early in August, but companies will talk a lot more about AI, I'm sure.

That will include the likes of CBA. In recent times, even companies like Imdex ((IMD)) are now moving into SaaS and AI.

You will hear it from Pro Medicus ((PME)). You will hear it from WiseTech. You'll also hear it from Scentre Group ((SCG)), and from Myer ((MYR)), and from Temple and Webster ((TPW)).

While August will be a season with a lot of talk about AI, we won't see that much in terms of extra revenue and profit increases.

That might come, at your earliest, probably in February next year, maybe August next year.

AI Front Runners In Australia

James: Do you have a couple of front runners on the AI front? You've talked about the data centres; I know you're a fan there.

You've listed a cluster of stocks from bricks and mortar retailers, through to the biggest bank, through to a mining services software provider. Are there a couple on the top of your list where you think they could be on the front?

Rudi: I think there's a time and timing for everything. I'm still into the data centres, because that is still a very straightforward way of playing this mega trend.

At this point in time, the most obvious other companies are companies in which we already are a shareholder anyway.

So you talk about TechnologyOne ((TNE)), you talk about Xero ((XRO)), you talk about WiseTech Global; they already are working with AI.

It'll go through the databases. It'll go through their client bases. Given their business models, they will stand to benefit.

Also quite straightforward: the margins will probably increase, the cost will go down.

These are the obvious ones to watch this reporting season. (Note: TechOne and Xero don't report in August, WiseTech Global does).

In the next phase, we will start talking about AI being used in finance;  insurance companies, banks, probably also in other finance services providers.

The telecommunication companies will start using it. We can position for that right now, but it is still early days.

As I said earlier, BHP is big on AI, but it won't move the dial there, unless we see the copper boom coming to the surface, or potash, or iron ore staying resilient for longer.

Because, at the end of the day BHP can apply AI as much as it likes, if those commodity prices don't move, the share price won't move either.

Three Bonus Questions

James: Rudi, we usually have three regular questions, but I'm going to call them irregular questions this time around, because I've tweaked them for you, ahead of reporting season.

They're meant to be short, sharp, a little bit of fun. So why don't we get stuck into those?

You've analysed 1000s of broker reports, maybe tens of 1000s, possibly hundreds of 1000s, over the last two decades. If you had to pinpoint one aspect the most valuable part of that research, what is it? And how can investors use it?

Rudi: Probably in the way I use it. It helps you understand what makes a company tick.

For someone like myself, that is more important than someone putting a Sell or Hold or Buy rating on the company and coming up with a price target or valuation.

What has helped me massively over the past 20 years that I've been doing this, and longer, is having access to such reports.

If I come across a company and I have no idea what it does, I can, obviously, download an annual report or something, but having access to broker research that goes through the whole company from A to Z and back -- you don't have to agree with everything--  it helps you understand what is important, this market, that product, etc, etc.

As I always like to say, Warren Buffett said you want to invest in a company that sooner or later can be run by an idiot.

But you have to understand it, to identify that particular company.

James: Normally, we ask people what they think are investors getting wrong about the market. Which company do you think investors are underestimating the most in the market right now?

Rudi: That's an easy one: NextDC. Recently I had, again, a long conversation with investors, and I can't get around the impression that people really can't get their head around how the data centres sector actually works, and why the world needs companies like NextDC.

Maybe this is something I underestimated over the past decade, that I was quite lucky to have access to industry reports, to broker reports that explain how the industry works, why we need NextDC, why there is a mega trend, and all of that.

I've noticed that, clearly, for a whole bunch of other people, it's very difficult to get their head around.

Not making it any easier: this is a company that doesn't make a profit.

James: Rudi, last question, it's been about 15 months or so, maybe a little longer, since you were last on the Rules of Investing. You were asked by Ally if you could only own one stock for the next five years, what would it be?

You're a bit cheeky. You picked three stocks. Those stocks were Goodman Group, NextDC and CSL. Are you happy to stick with those stocks for the remaining three and a half years? Did you want to substitute one instead?

Rudi: No. If you'd want to substitute one, it would probably be CSL, simply because of the risk factor.

But I still believe that CSL is a quality company. It'll get things right as far as what they can control.

Actually, we now are making a circle to where we started this conversation today.

People have to stop looking at Goodman Group as a property developer. They have to stop looking at NextDC as a capital-intensive business.

What they do have to understand is that we are most likely revisiting the 1920s and in the 1920s, at the beginning of the wave upwards, at the beginning of societal change, at the beginning of the mega trend, the last thing you worry about is that you can overpay.

Because those share prices will be carried by the mega trend. It's called a mega trend for a reason. CSL will use AI as well.

James: if you were to switch out of CSL, is it ResMed you'd pop in instead?

Rudi: I might pick ResMed, yes, for obvious reasons. ResMed, also in the portfolio, has --sort of-- taken the mantle from CSL.

James: Rudi, talking of mega trends, that was a mega interview ahead of reporting season. Always great to catch up. I really appreciate your time and putting your hard hat on. Best of luck for August.

Rudi: Thank you. And don't fight the last war!

James: Very good. Ladies and gentlemen, I hope you enjoyed that episode of the Rules of Investing. A special one with Rudi Filapek-Vandyck ahead of the August reporting season.

Remember, if you enjoyed that video or the podcast, make sure you subscribe to our channels on YouTube or on Apple and all the major podcasting platforms.

Model Portfolios, Best Buys & Conviction Calls

This section appears from now on every Thursday morning in a separate update on the website. See Rudi's Views for the archive going back to 2006 (not a typo).

FNArena Subscription

A subscription to FNArena (6 or 12 months) comes with an archive of Special Reports (21 since 2006); examples below.

Dividend Investing, The Smart Way 250(1)Cover Investing in GenAi - medium sized

(This story was written on Monday, 11th August 2025. It was published on the day in the form of an email to paying subscribers, and again on Wednesday as a story on the website).

(Do note that, in line with all my analyses, appearances and presentations, all of the above names and calculations are provided for educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views are mine and not by association FNArena's see disclaimer on the website.

In addition, since FNArena runs a Model Portfolio based upon my research on All-Weather Performers it is more than likely that stocks mentioned are included in this Model Portfolio. For all questions about this: contact us via the direct messaging system on the website).

Australian investors stay informed with FNArena – your trusted source for Australian financial news. We deliver expert analysis, daily updates on the ASX and commodity markets, and deep insights into companies on the ASX200 and ASX300, and beyond. Whether you're seeking a reliable financial newsletter or comprehensive finance news and detailed insights, FNArena offers unmatched coverage of the stock market news that matters. As a leading financial online newspaper, we help you stay ahead in the fast-moving world of Australian finance news.

article 3 months old

Rudi’s View: AI Updates, Hot Favourites & First August Results

In today's edition:

-August Updates Are A-Comin'
-The Era Of Polarisation
-Morgan Stanley's Hot Favourites For August
-Attention Returns To AI Infrastructure
-FNArena Talks
-Review All-Weather Model Portfolio
-Best Buys & Conviction Calls

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

August Updates Are A-Comin'

The Australian corporate results season has officially started but, as per unofficial tradition, the pace of corporate releases remains rather glacial this early in the month.

By week's end FNArena's Corporate Results Monitor will only list some 18 companies, not more than a drop in the ocean given that number will be around 385 or so by early September, but that's just how this cookie crumbles in Australia nowadays.

Are there any conclusions that could possibly be drawn this early?

Nah. But we do note the REITs have been a positive contributor thus far, as anticipated by analysts covering the sector.

Plus all of ResMed ((RMD)), News Corp ((NWS)) and Credit Corp ((CCP)) managed to outperform forecasts while updates from REA Group ((REA)), AMP Ltd ((AMP)) and Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI)) contained enough good news to keep the share price well-supported.

One might say the season has begun on a relative positive note, but let's not get overly excited just yet. There's literally a deluge in releases awaiting us over the coming three weeks (plus a bit).

By this time next week, the numbers will be a lot larger, but the bulk is reserved for the final two weeks of the month.

FNArena is keeping a close watch daily: https://fnarena.com/index.php/reporting_season/

The Era Of Polarisation

A timely reminder entered the inbox this week: it's not just share markets that are heavily polarised nowadays, the same observation applies to the economies underneath.

Economists at Oxford Economics shared the following observations about the US economy:

"The economy has slowed and is growing below its short-run potential, but this hasn’t altered the bifurcated nature of the consumer, business environment, and labor market. This leaves the economy more vulnerable and masks some of the fissures beneath the aggregate economic data.

"High-income consumers are doing well while lower-income households are struggling. Trade and fiscal policy will reinforce the bifurcated consumer. The net impact of tariffs and fiscal policy will reduce the lowest-income quintiles' real disposable income by 2.5%-3% while boosting the highest incomes by the same amount.

"As large businesses can weather tariffs better, they outperform small ones, reinforcing recent labor market weakness. Employment among small businesses, the backbone of the labor market, has barely budged and fundamentals remain unfavorable.

"It’s also a tale of two labor markets. It’s a good labor market for those with a job, but a challenging one for those who are unemployed or not in the labor force but want a job. The bifurcated labor market can change quickly if layoffs increase, a significant risk to the forecasts."


Morgan Stanley's Hot Favourites For August

Analysts at Morgan Stanley tend to nominate their Conviction Ideas among smaller cap companies prior to each results season, and this time the tradition remains intact.

So far, the following four have been nominated:

-Tuas ((TUA))
-McMillan Shakespearre ((MMS))
-Generation Development ((GDG))
-Breville Group ((BRG))

Attention Returns To AI Infrastructure

On Tuesday and Wednesday, share prices in Macquarie Technology ((MAQ)), NextDC ((NXT)) and Goodman Group ((GMG)) enjoyed renewed buyers' interest as analysts at Morgan Stanley reiterated their positive projections --yet again-- for global spending on AI and the flow-on benefits for ASX-listed data centre operators.

Irrespective of the multiple challenges that lay ahead for the industry, Morgan Stanley's in-house view is that global data centre capacity is poised to grow at a 23%-plus CAGR between 2025 and 2030. In Australia, capacity is projected to grow from 1275MW today to 3200MW, which in layman's terms translates to more than double over 4.5 years.

The industry equally received some attention from Treasurer Jim Chalmers who declared data centres represent “a major opportunity” to position Australia as a global player in AI infrastructure.

Having had spent time with institutional investors holding about $3trn in capital, Chalmers stated for Australia to seize this opportunity, future success hinges on getting energy, zoning approvals, and workforce skills right.

He's confident any obstacles can be overcome.

Meanwhile, the quarterly corporate results season in the US is very much pointing in the direction of an acceleration in demand for data centres and cloud connectivity.

Earlier in the year, when doubt crept in and clouded global investor sentiment towards the future and outlook for AI, shares in NextDC et al sold off. To date they haven't fully recovered from that reversal in sentiment just yet.

Echoing the optimism also expressed by their colleagues at Morgan Stanley, RBC Capital analysts have been quick in pointing out Australian data centres should be among key beneficiaries from the positive mood emanating from market updates by major investors including Meta, Amazon, Google and Microsoft.

RBC Capital reminded investors it has Outperform ratings for NextDC (price target $20) and Macquarie Technology (Price target $95) and a Sector Perform, Speculative Risk rating for cloud connectivity player Megaport ((MP1)) (target $13).

Regular readers would be well aware all of Goodman Group, NextDC and Macquarie Technology are included in the FNArena-Vested Equities All-Weather Model Portfolio (see also further below).

In preparation of August:

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/08/06/rudis-view-five-bellwethers-for-august/

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/07/30/rudis-view-taking-stock-ahead-of-august/

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/07/24/rudis-view-bega-cheese-cettire-harvey-norman-sigma-siteminder-more/

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/07/23/rudis-view-extreme-bifurcation-ahead-of-august/

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/07/17/rudis-view-aussie-broadband-oohmedia-paladin-energy-seek-xero-more/

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/07/16/rudis-view-navigating-covid-legacies/

FNArena Talks

As per tradition, my interview with Livewire Markets ahead of August results:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/rudi-it-s-not-a-bubble-ai-s-next-winners-and-what-investors-are-overlooking

Same video on YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zacYSeVdqW4

Review All-Weather Model Portfolio

The financial year ending on June 30th 2025 featured the return of Donald Trump in the White House and of extreme market volatility.

The second half of the year also saw doubt creeping into general sentiment towards AI and demand for data centres.

All in all, a gain of 13.85% (pre-fees) for the twelve months is not something to be unhappy about, right?

FY25 review of the All-Weather Model Portfolio: https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/download-article/?n=4B38C0EF-A173-8CE6-736A7AFC7B19FC49

Best Buys & Conviction Calls

Bell Potter's Buy-rated ASX-listed agricultural stocks:

-Australian Agricultural Company ((AAC))
-Bega Cheese ((BGA))
-Elders ((ELD))
-Noumi Ltd ((NOU))
-Nufarm ((NUF))
-Rural Funds ((RFF))
-Select Harvests ((SHV))

Bell Potter's sector preferences for the financial year ahead.

Listed Investment Companies ((LICs)
-Australian Foundation Investment Company ((AFI))
-Metrics Master Income Trust ((MXT))
-MFF Capital Investments ((MFF))

Agricultural & Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG)
-Bega Cheese ((BGA))
-Rural Funds Group ((RFF))
-Elders ((ELD))

Technology
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))
-Gentrack ((GTK))
-Seek ((SEK))

Diversified Financials
-Cuscal ((CCL))
-Praemium ((PPS))
-Regal Partners ((RPL))

Real Estate
-Aspen Group ((APZ))
-Cedar Woods ((CWP))
-Region Group ((RGN))

Retail
-JB Hi-Fi ((JBH))
-Universal Store Holdings ((UNI))
-Propel Funeral Partners ((PFP))

Industrials
-LGI Ltd ((LGI))
-Environmental Group ((EGL))

Healthcare
-Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX))
-Neuren Pharmaceuticals ((NEU))
-Monash IVF ((MVF))

Gold
-Minerals 260 ((MI6))
-Santana Minerals ((SMI))
-Evolution Mining ((EVN))

Base Metals
-Aeris Resources ((AIS))
-Nickel Industries ((NIC))
-AIC Mines ((A1M))

Strategic Minerals & Processing Technologies
-Alpha HPA ((A4N))
-IperionX ((IPX))

Energy
-Boss Energy ((BOE))

Mining & Industrial Services
-Develop Global ((DVP))
-ALS Ltd ((ALQ))
-Duratec ((DUR))

****

favourites inside the local small cap retail space (in order of preference) as selected by Retail sector analysts at Citi:

-Universal Store Holdings ((UNI))
-Baby Bunting ((BBY))
-Nick Scali ((NCK))
-Temple & Webster ((TPW))
-Beacon Lighting ((BLX))
-Harvey Norman ((HVN))
-Accent Group ((AX1))
-Super Retail ((SUL))
-Premier Investments ((PMV))
-Bapcor ((BAP))
-Lovisa Holdings ((LOV))

****

Crestone's Best Sector Ideas:

-Ampol ((ALD))
-APA Group ((APA))
-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-Beach Energy ((BPT))
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Cochlear ((COH))
-CSL ((CSL))
-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-IGO Ltd ((IGO))
-James Hardie Industries ((JHX))
-Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Metcash ((MTS))
-Monadelphous Group ((MND))
-REA Group ((REA))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Xero ((XRO))

Crestone's selection for sustainable income:

-Amcor ((AMC))
-Ampol ((ALD))
-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-APA Group ((APA))
-Atlas Arteria ((ALX))
-Beach Energy ((BPT))
-BHP Group ((BHP))
-Car Group ((CAR))
-Coles Group ((COL))
-Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure ((DBI))
-Iress ((IRE))
-Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Metcash ((MTS))
-Mirvac Group ((MGR))
-Pro Medicus ((PME))
-QBE Insurance ((QBE))
-RAM Essential Services ((REP))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Tabcorp Holdings ((TAH))
-Telstra Group ((TLS))

****

Goldman Sachs' selection of local Conviction Buys:

-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Worley ((WOR))

Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield ((URW)) is also included for its Paris listing with the local listing about to disappear.

****

Jarden's 18 Best Ideas among Australia's small caps ("emerging companies") includes the following Key Picks considered offering the highest potential return, in order of projected total investment reward:

-GQG Partners ((GQG))
-Dicker Data ((DDR))
-Universal Store Holdings ((UNI))
-Qualitas ((QAL))
-EVT Ltd ((EVT))
-Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI))
-Temple & Webster ((TPW))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))

The other ten stocks selected:

-Aussie Broadband ((ABB))
-Arena REIT ((ARF))
-Genesis Energy ((GNE))
-Harvey Norman ((HVN))
-Integral Diagnostics ((IDX))
-Karoon Energy ((KAR))
-Michael Hill ((MHJ))
-Pepper Money ((PPM))
-Symal Group ((SYL))
-Vault Minerals ((VAU))

****

Macquarie's small caps desk nominated its favourites (Best Picks) ahead of the August results season.

-Aussie Broadband ((ABB))
-Amotiv ((AOV))
-AUB Group ((AUB))
-Alpha HPA ((A4N))
-Bega Cheese ((BGA))
-Capstone Copper ((CSC))
-Codan ((CDA))
-Genesis Minerals ((GMD))
-Iluka Resources ((ILU))
-Integral Diagnostics ((IDX))
-Harvey Norman ((HVN))
-Jumbo Interactive ((JIN))
-Lovisa Holdings ((LOV))
-Maas Group ((MGH))
-Megaport (( MP1))
-Monadelphous ((MND))
-Neuren ((NEU))
-Nick Scali ((NCK))
-oOh!media ((OML))
-Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI))
-Qualitas ((QAL))
-Reliance Worldwide ((RWC))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))
-Summit Minerals ((SUM))
-Universal Store Holdings ((UNI))
-Ventia Services ((VNT))
-Web Travel Group ((WEB))

****

Morgans' selection of Best Ideas consists of the following 29 ASX-listed companies:

Acrow ((ACF))
ALS Ltd ((ALQ))
Amotiv ((AOV))
BHP Group ((BHP))
Collins Foods ((CKF))
Corporate Travel Management ((CTD))
CSL ((CSL))
Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure ((DBI))
Dexus Convenience Retail REIT ((DXC))
DigiCo Infrastructure REIT ((DGT))
EBR Systems ((EBR))
Elders ((ELD))
Goodman Group ((GMG))
Guzman y Gomez ((GYG))
James Hardie Industries ((JHX))
Light & Wonder ((LNW))
Lovisa Holdings ((LOV))
MA Financial Group ((MAF))
Megaport ((MP1))
Orica ((ORI))
Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI))
ResMed ((RMD))
South32 ((S32))
Treasury Wine Estates ((TWE))
Qualitas ((QAL))
Universal Store Holdings ((UNI))
Whitehaven Coal ((WHC))
WiseTech Global ((WTC))
Woodside Energy ((WDS))

****

Morgan Stanley's six Conviction stock picks that each represent a compelling individual investment case underpinned by idiosyncratic drivers and the ability to deliver earnings upside, believed to be underappreciated by the market.

-WiseTech Global ((WTC))
-Charter Hall Group ((CHC))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Life360 Inc ((360))
-Generation Development Group ((GDG))
-Data#3 ((DTL))

Morgan Stanley's Macro+ Focus List in Australia is currently made up of:

-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-Car Group ((CAR))
-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-GPT Group ((GPT))
-James Hardie Industries ((JHX))
-Orica ((ORI))
-Santos ((STO))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Xero ((XRO))

Morgan Stanley's Australia Macro+ Model Portfolio is currently made up of the following:

-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-CommBank ((CBA))
-National Australia Bank ((NAB))
-Westpac ((WBC))

-Macquarie Group ((MQG))

-Suncorp Group ((SUN))

-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-GPT Group ((GPT))
-Scentre Group ((SCG))
-Stockland ((STG))

-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-Eagers Automotive ((APE))
-CAR Group ((CAR))
-Domino's Pizza ((DMP))
-The Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Wesfarmers ((WES))
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))
-Xero ((XRO))

-James Hardie ((JHX))

-Amcor ((AMC))
-Cleanaway Waste Management ((CWY))
-Orica ((ORI))

-Coles Group ((COL))

-CSL ((CSL))
-ResMed ((RMD))

-AGL Energy ((AGL))
-Telstra ((TLS))
-Transurban ((TCL))

-BHP Group ((BHP))
-Newmont Corp ((NEM))
-Rio Tinto ((RIO))
-South32 ((S32))

-Santos ((STO))
-Woodside Energy ((WDS))

****

Morningstar's Equity Best Ideas (Conviction Buy Calls by any other name, mostly chosen because of under-valuation).

-Auckland International Airport ((AIA))
-ASX Ltd ((ASX))
-Aurizon Holdings ((AZJ))
-Bapcor ((BAP))
-Dexus ((DXS))
-Domino's Pizza Enterprises ((DMP))
-Endeavour Group ((EDV))
-Fineos Corp ((FCL))
-IDP Education ((IEL))
-IGO Ltd ((IGO))
-Ramsay Health Care ((RHC))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))
-Spark New Zealand ((SPK))
-Woodside Energy ((WDS))

****

Ord Minnett's High Conviction calls (all nominations made by sector analysts on a 12 month horizon):

-Aussie Broadband ((ABB))
-Brazilian Rare Earths ((BRE))
-Bubs Australia ((BUB))
-Cuscal ((CCL))
-Qoria ((QOR))
-Regis Healthcare ((REG))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))
-Vault Minerals ((VAU))
-Waypoint REIT ((WPR))
-Zip Co ((ZIP))

****

Shaw and Partners' Large Caps Model Portfolio:

-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-BlueScope Steel ((BSL))
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Dexus ((DXS))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Newmont Corp ((NEM))
-South32 ((S32))

Shaw and Partners' emerging companies Top Picks:

-AML3D ((AL3))
-Australian Vanadium ((AVL))
-Bannerman Energy ((BMN))
-Chrysos ((C79))
-Humm Group ((HUM))
-Metro Mining ((MMI))
-Santana Minerals ((SMI))
-Southern Cross Electrical ((SXE))

****

UBS's Most Preferred Stocks in Australia

In Resources segment:
-BHP Group ((BHP))
-BlueScope Steel ((BSL))
-Newmont Corp ((NEM))
-Orica ((ORI))
-Origin Energy ((ORG))

Among Financials & A-REITs:
-Dexus ((DXS))
-Lifestyle Communities ((LIC))
-Mirvac Group ((MGR))
-Medibank Private ((MPL))
-QBE Insurance ((QBE))
-Steadfast Group ((SDF))

Among Industrials:
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Collins Foods ((CKF))
-Cochlear ((COH))
-Coles Group ((COL))
-NextDC ((NXT))
-REA Group ((REA))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-SGH Ltd ((SGH))
-TechnologyOne ((TNE))
-Telstra Corp ((TLS))
-Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX))
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))

UBS's Least Preferred Stocks in Australia

-Aurizon Holdings ((AZJ))
-ASX Ltd ((ASX))
-Bank of Queensland ((BOQ))
-CommBank ((CBA))
-Charter Hall Group ((CHC))
-Computershare ((CPU))
-Evolution Mining ((EVN))
-Temple & Webster ((TPW))

****

Wilsons' Key Investment Opportunities:

-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))
-Woolworths ((WOW))

High conviction investment ideas:

-ARB Corp ((ARB))
-Maas Group ((MGH))
-Nanosonics ((NAN))
-Ridley Corp ((RIC))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))

Speculative idea:

-Clarity Pharmaceuticals ((CU6))

Wilsons' Focus Portfolio currently contains the following:

-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-BHP Group ((BHP))
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Car Group ((CAR))
-Collins Foods ((CKF))
-CSL ((CSL))
-Evolution Mining ((EVN))
-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT ((HCW))
-Hub24 ((HUB))
-James Hardie ((JHX))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Northern Star Resources ((NST))
-Pinnacle Investment Managers ((PNI))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Sandfire Resources ((SFR))
-Santos ((STO))
-South32 ((S32))
-TechnologyOne ((TNE))
-Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX))
-The Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Westpac Bank ((WBC))
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))
-Woolworths Group ((WOW))
-Worley ((WOR))
-Xero ((XRO))

Paying subscribers have 24/7 access to my curated lists, including All-Weather Performers at: https://fnarena.com/index.php/analysis-data/all-weather-stocks/

(Do note that, in line with all my analyses, appearances and presentations, all of the above names and calculations are provided for educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions.)  

P.S. I - All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert for my Rudi's View stories. Go to My Alerts (top bar of the website) and tick the box in front of 'Rudi's View'. You will receive an email alert every time a new Rudi's View story has been published on the website. 

P.S. II - If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.

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article 3 months old

Rudi’s View: Extreme Bifurcation Ahead Of August

In this week's Weekly Insights:

-Ask FNArena
-Extreme Bifurcation Ahead Of August

-For Financial Advisors Ready to Make an Impact

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

Ask FNArena

Tuesday, the 29th of July at 4.30pm.

Put it in your agenda to participate in FNArena's online Zoom meeting, featuring your Editor ready to answer your questions.

We welcome questions in advance though there will be opportunity to ask on the day and during the session, of course.

Keep an eye out for follow ups in Weekly Insights and Rudi's View stories.

Yes, there will be a video recording to view and listen afterwards.

Send your questions to Editor@fnarena.com

Extreme Bifurcation Ahead Of August

There was a time when 13.80% total return for the financial year would be welcomed by all and sundry as a pleasant outcome, but not so in mid-2025 when the strong rally in CommBank ((CBA)) shares has been responsible for 38% of those returns.

Prospects for CommBank and the broader bank sector in general have improved throughout the year, but only slightly so. As the share price rallied and kept on rising (up 22% in the June quarter alone) pushing the implied forward-looking dividend yield to a paltry 2.8%, many domestic shareholders have been selling their exposure.

The rise and rise of CommBank relative to the rest of the ASX200 (now weighing 12% of the index) has triggered lively debates among Australian investors, and still does.

Some investors have sold exposure and recycled the proceeds into other, cheaper-priced  major bank shares, but UBS for one doesn't think this will prove the best protection against CBA's coming back to earth - something that surely must happen at some point?

Whatever will pull back the CommBank share price is likely going to be a sector-wide impact, UBS suggested a few weeks ago. Meaning: it'll impact the rest of the sector too, in all likelihood.

Indeed, share prices in financials broadly, and in banks specifically, have performed well in FY25 with three major banks ending up in the Top Five of highest contributions for the index since mid last year.

CommBank shares simply outclassed everyone and everything with a total return of... wait for it... 49.8%, adding more than three times more to index gains than number two, Westpac ((WBC)).

As to whom is responsible, the second half of last year featured steady buying orders from superannuation funds while in 2025 large US institutions seeking shelter from potential US tariff impacts have compensated for local sellers.

For more background, investors might revisit some of FNArena's recent background stories and explanations:

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/07/18/in-brief-sks-technologies-banks-qpm-energy/

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/06/10/geopolitical-hedging-a-boon-for-commbank/

The Local FY25 Top Ten

It is likely more of Australia's large cap bluechips with similar tariff agnostic characteristic might have enjoyed some of the unexpected international fund inflows as well.

The Top Ten of highest index contributors for the twelve months to June 30th is as follows:

1. CommBank
2. Westpac
3. Wesfarmers ((WES))
4. Telstra ((TLS))
5. National Australia Bank ((NAB))
6. Brambles ((BXB))
7. Macquarie Group ((MQG))
8. QBE Insurance ((QBE))
9. Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
10. Evolution Mining ((EVN))

Combined, these ten stocks represent 76.6% of all index returns in FY25.

Equally noteworthy: gold miner Evolution Mining shares needed to rally by 127.7% to make it into the Top Ten, just.

That list, and its importance for the local market, serves as a timely reminder for just how polarised the share market has been, and still is.

While large caps such as BHP Group ((BHP)), CSL ((CSL)) and Woodside Energy ((WDS)) have been prominent laggards throughout the year past, the market segment that has mostly disappointed investors is without any doubt the legion of small cap companies.

The (Ongoing) Small Cap Challenge

This market polarisation in favour of larger cap companies is not new and neither has it been ASX-specific.

A recent US markets update by Jason Zweig at the Wall Street Journal revealed the larger-cap S&P500 has returned on average 13.2% since 2014 while the Russell2000 index of smaller cap companies has lagged severely with an annual return of 7.2% only.

That is one mighty gap between the two opposing ends of the market in terms of company size.

For good measure: in Australia, the technology sector has mimicked its offshore peers by outperforming all other sectors locally, but despite large cap representatives such as Block ((XYZ)), Pro Medicus ((PME)), REA Group ((REA)), WiseTech Global ((WTC)) and Xero ((XRO)) its index relevance remains quite benign still.

Equally worth highlighting is that Australia's sweet spot --the MidCap50-- remains the best performing segment, including a total return of 16.45% in FY25.

Most of the pain/disappointment locally mimicks the US with the Small Ordinaries returning 12.26% in FY25, an annualised 10% for the past three years, on average 7.37% over five years and only 7.64% on average in total return for the decade past.

Australia being one of the world's commodities centres, some of the small cap underperformance is likely related to the many explorers and developers in mining and energy, but that can only be a partial explanation, at best.

Also worth noting: the relative gap between banks and resources in Australia has blown out to a multi-year high (market weight of 35.2% versus 19.5%).

A deeper dive below the surface of today's share prices and index level, into FNArena's proprietary market data, confirms just how polarised the Australian share market is; possibly a lot more than most investors, including myself, realise.

Comparing share prices with price targets set by stockbroking analysts is far from a perfect guide --both can change instantly and dramatically-- but for the general purpose of assessing today's status for the ASX and painting a general picture, it can enlighten and explain a lot that otherwise remains hidden underneath biased opinions and outdated perceptions.

FNArena's forward-looking data universe currently includes 531 ASX-listed companies, of which only 102 share prices are trading above their consensus target.  This number will be smaller post Monday's general off day.

Ahead of results releases in August, we should be keeping in mind that forecasts will be updated in the weeks ahead, with potential positive impact on valuations and price targets.

If we raise the bar to share prices trading at least 5% above target, that number of elevated looking share prices shrinks to 70.

This is still a sufficiently large selection for investors to pay attention to, and it includes all the usual suspects, including the Top Ten mentioned, as well as Netwealth Group ((NWL)), Megaport ((MP1)), Eagers Automotive ((APE)), Harvey Norman ((HVN)), Origin Energy ((ORG)), and Charter Hall ((CHC)).

Of course, there are also plenty of small and micro cap stocks in this group, including Opthea ((OPT)), Arafura Rare Earths ((ARU)), Alcidion Group ((ALC)), HighCom ((HCL)), and Doctor Care Anywhere ((DOC)). I'm specifically not mentioning those under merger or take-over interest.

Not all of these elevated-looking share prices are doomed for immediate disaster, of course, but 531 stocks minus 102 still leaves us with nearly 80% (429 companies) that cannot be accused of trading on fumes and over-inflated market momentum, not until that implied profit disappointment comes out or analysts downgrade their target (usually in response to operational disappointment).

Obvious question: with such a heavily lopsided market set-up, is it still justified to worry about the index trading on a higher-than-usual valuation?

History suggests the answer is 'yes' as lower valued shares might not necessarily hold their ground if/when the popular winners sell off, but it does suggest there's potential for outsized investment returns if positive earnings and/or market momentum spreads out to larger parts of the local bourse.

For good measure, sustained market momentum for ASX-listed companies splintered into polarised extremes during the global covid pandemic and has to date never recovered from it.

Calls for a decisive catch-up by smaller cap companies to their outperforming larger peers have been made ever so regularly over the past three-four years, both internationally and in Australia, but here we are mid-year 2025 and smaller cap underperformance and market polarisation remain as prominent as ever.

Maybe not getting carried away with too high expectations simply because share prices look under-priced and have lagged sustained market momentum to date might be the best approach at this stage?

The August results season is still expected to see the average earnings per share for the ASX200 retreat for a third successive year, to end up -18% below the peak of FY22.

This suggests there remains plenty of room for disappointments next month, even though forecasts are signalling better times might be ahead and some forecasters believe corporate Australia might --finally-- enjoy an upgrade cycle throughout FY26/FY27.

One can but wonder if that is the prerequisite requirement to see momentum for the Australian share market broaden out significantly in the months/years upcoming.

Should we all send Christmas cards to Michele Bullock at the RBA and to federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers?

(Don't think Trump cares much about what happens in Australia).

Digging Into The 80%

Below are some selective snippets from the 80% of share prices for whom trading at or above broker price targets has remained a bridge too far (a starting point for further research and assessment, maybe?).

In the category of absolute bottom-of-the-barrel, smashed-to-smithereens, seemingly crazily undervalued disappointments, we find the likes of:

-Hastings Technology Metals ((HAS))
-Bowen Coking Coal ((BCB))
-Australian Vanadium ((AVL))
-Cettire ((CTT))
-Playside Studios ((PLY))
-Step One Clothing ((STP))

Stocks trading with suggested upside potential between 50%-100%:

-Mitchell Services ((MSV))
-Macquarie Technology ((MAQ))
-DigiCo Infrastructure REIT ((DGT))
-Vault Minerals ((VAU))
-Bannerman Energy ((BMN))
-Viva Leisure ((VVA))
-PolyNovo ((PNV))
-Cosol ((COS))
-Austin Engineering ((ANG))
-Avita Medical ((AVH))

Stocks trading with suggested upside potential between 30%-50%:

-Regal Partners ((RPL))
-Elders ((ELD))
-Macmahon Holdings ((MAH))
-Worley ((WOR))
-Guzman y Gomez ((GYG))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))
-Southern Cross Electrical Engineering ((SXE))
-Lindsay Australia ((LAU))
-NextDC ((NXT))
-Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX))

Stocks trading with suggested upside potential between 10%-30%:

-Car Group ((CAR))
-Virgin Australia ((VGN))
-BlueScope Steel ((BSL))
-Collins Foods ((CKF))
-Paladin Energy ((PDN))
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))
-Seek ((SEK))
-AGL Energy ((AGL))
-Flight Centre ((FLT))
-GQG Partners ((GQG))

Stocks trading at less than -10% from their target:

-Woodside Energy ((WDS))
-Challenger ((CGF))
-Waypoint REIT ((WPR))
-Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI))
-Iluka Resources ((ILU))
-Orica ((ORI))
-Woolworths Group ((WOW))
-EVT Ltd ((EVT))
-NRW Holdings ((NWH))
-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))

More than two decades of experience suggests this kind of information should not be interpreted in a static, set-in-stone manner.

A positive surprise in August can significantly widen upside potential, just as a negative development can work its magic to the downside.

A hefty discount might be the market telling us the risk level is too high and probably skewed to the downside, just as a big premium might signal upgrades are coming.

Post-Covid Is Different

The extreme polarisation in market momentum is equally reflected in stockbroker ratings for individual stocks.

Historically, a share market near an all-time high corresponds with more Neutral/Hold ratings and less Buys, but not in the post-covid era as clearly shown in the graphic below.

(The blue line represents the total Buy ratings).

B-H-S 2006-July 2025 832

Trading on a forward-multiple of 18.9x forecast earnings, the ASX200 is trading more than two standard deviations from its historical average of 14.7x.

Even if we limit today's comparison to the past ten years (accepting that share price averages are higher in more recent times than they have been throughout the preceding decades) the current situation still compares unfavourably with an average multiple of 16.1x.

Possible explanations/justifications include better growth momentum ahead, also on the back of more rate cuts from the RBA, ongoing strong growth momentum for the AI megatrend, and a general broadening of AI benefits to broader sections of the economy (higher margins, more efficiency).

Many of these assumptions will be put to the test in August. Consensus forecasts are currently indicating EPS growth of circa 5% for the year ahead (FY26), followed by another near 8% in FY27.

Investors will be keeping their fingers crossed that outlook will not deteriorate in the same manner as it has done throughout all three years post FY22.

FNArena publishes a monthly update to the Australian Super Stock Report, which facilitates assessments such as the ones mentioned in today's story. This report is included in paying subscriptions (6 and 12 months) and can be downloaded from the website.

As per tradition, FNArena will keep a close tab on corporate results in August.

For the coming two weeks or so, FNArena's Results Monitor will still display its overview of results released post February: https://fnarena.com/index.php/reporting_season/

Next week's edition of Weekly Insights shall dig deeper into expectations and forecasts ahead of August results for sectors and individual companies.

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Contribute Your Perspective: Become an FNArena Contributor

We also welcome financial advisors who enjoy writing or commentary to share their knowledge with our growing audience of self-managed investors.

Whether it's a market view, a professional story, or insight from the front lines if youve got something to say, well help amplify it.

Email us at Editor@FNArena.com

Model Portfolios, Best Buys & Conviction Calls

This section appears from now on every Thursday morning in a separate update on the website. See Rudi's Views for the archive going back to 2006 (not a typo).

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A subscription to FNArena (6 or 12 months) comes with an archive of Special Reports (21 since 2006); examples below.

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(This story was written on Monday, 21st July 2025. It was published on the day in the form of an email to paying subscribers, and again on Wednesday as a story on the website).

(Do note that, in line with all my analyses, appearances and presentations, all of the above names and calculations are provided for educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views are mine and not by association FNArena's see disclaimer on the website.

In addition, since FNArena runs a Model Portfolio based upon my research on All-Weather Performers it is more than likely that stocks mentioned are included in this Model Portfolio. For all questions about this: contact us via the direct messaging system on the website).

Australian investors stay informed with FNArena – your trusted source for Australian financial news. We deliver expert analysis, daily updates on the ASX and commodity markets, and deep insights into companies on the ASX200 and ASX300, and beyond. Whether you're seeking a reliable financial newsletter or comprehensive finance news and detailed insights, FNArena offers unmatched coverage of the stock market news that matters. As a leading financial online newspaper, we help you stay ahead in the fast-moving world of Australian finance news.

article 3 months old

Rudi’s View: Aussie Broadband, oOh!media, Paladin Energy, Seek, Xero & More

Update on changes to and revisions of analysts’ Best Ideas and Conviction Calls, as well as Model Portfolio compositions.

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

We was wrong.

It's the kind of phrase protagonists say in American movies and that makes viewers like myself squirm, but then again, apparently 'dove' instead of 'dived' is also permitted in the land of Kaiser Donald J.

Macquarie's latest strategy update on Australian equities, released earlier today on Thursday morning wouldn't use American colloquialisms, of course, but the strategists might have just as well, because that is the key over-riding message expressed to their clientele.

Up until today, Macquarie strategists have been warning about too much exuberance in equities, advocating a cautious and defensive portfolio set-up while expecting this year's runaway stock market train to come unstuck.

But it hasn't happened.

Today's mea culpa suggests the focus has been too much on PE expansion and the RBA holding out on rate cuts. Outside of Australia, central banks have been cutting rates at a pace nearly never witnessed outside of economic recession, and it is translating into growth resilience and momentum picking up.

Add a just as rare technology boom and this year's cocktail suggests the world is trending towards a better place, not one-way into malaise and struggles.

Better times ahead means the Model Portfolio was too defensively positioned. Macquarie strategists have responded by adding more exposure to Technology and AI, and less to bond proxies (bond yields might not weaken as much as earlier thought).

The following stocks have been added to the Model Portfolio:

-NextDC ((NXT))
-Seek ((SEK))
-Paladin Energy ((PDN))

These additions compliment the likes of Xero ((XRO)), Megaport ((MP1)) and Goodman Group ((GMG)).

For more cyclical exposure, the Portfolio now also owns Lovisa Holdings ((LOV)) and Web Travel Group ((WEB)). Also added has been Challenger ((CGF)) on anticipation of a more limited fall in bond yields.

Exposures that have been reduced: Transurban ((TCL)), GPT Group ((G:PT)) and James Hardie ((JHX)).

On the strategists' own assessment, if their revised outlook proves correct, Australian companies should see earnings upgrades in FY26.

That will be the logical litmus test, both for Macquarie's about-face and for current elevated PE ratios.

Global equity strategists at UBS remain on the lookout for downgrades to current growth forecasts, and for decelerating economic indicators while the Federal Reserve will only be ready to deliver its next rate cut in September.

UBS thus suggests equity markets might find the going a little more challenging, with the extra comment that any pullback larger than -5% would come as a surprise.

Weakness should still be treated as an opportunity to buy more shares, in UBS's view (being relatively relaxed about potential impacts from tariffs).

Investors have rightly learned to buy the dip, say the strategists, with US corporate profits still expected to grow (albeit more slowly), the AI theme still booming and USD weakness supporting nearly 25% of S&P500 revenues that are generated internationally.

****

Staying with Macquarie, the small caps desk has released its favourites ahead of the August results season. The list of Best Picks consists of:

-Aussie Broadband ((ABB))
-Amotiv ((AOV))
-AUB Group ((AUB))
-Alpha HPA ((A4N))
-Bega Cheese ((BGA))
-Capstone Copper ((CSC))
-Codan ((CDA))
-Genesis Minerals ((GMD))
-Iluka Resources ((ILU))
-Integral Diagnostics ((IDX))
-Harvey Norman ((HVN))
-Jumbo Interactive ((JIN))
-Lovisa Holdings ((LOV))
-Maas Group ((MGH))
-Megaport (( MP1))
-Monadelphous ((MND))
-Neuren ((NEU))
-Nick Scali ((NCK))
-oOh!media ((OML))
-Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI))
-Qualitas ((QAL))
-Reliance Worldwide ((RWC))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))
-Summit Minerals ((SUM))
-Universal Store Holdings ((UNI))
-Ventia Services ((VNT))
-Web Travel Group ((WEB))

Let me share one personal pleasure: every time I write up these lists, I challenge myself to add full company names, correct spelling and all, to each ASX code to check how up to date my knowledge remains.

Today I am slightly disappointed. I failed on five codes, including for Maas Group! Must have had a temporary blackout.

****

One extra update from Macquarie on Thursday morning: the healthcare desk expressed their favouritism for CSL ((CSL)), ResMed ((RMD)), Integral Diagnostics ((IDX)) and Neuren ((NEU)).

Least preferred are Cochlear ((COH)) and Ansell ((ANN)).

****

Bell Potter's general update on ASX-listed agricultural stocks shows the following Buy-rated preferences:

-Australian Agricultural Company ((AAC))
-Bega Cheese ((BGA))
-Elders ((ELD))
-Noumi Ltd ((NOU))
-Nufarm ((NUF))
-Rural Funds ((RFF))
-Select Harvests ((SHV))

****

Stockbroker Morgans, previewing August results, has High Conviction for positive performances from the following resources companies:

-BHP Group ((BHP))
-Woodside Energy ((WDS))
-Amplitude Energy ((AEL))
-Karoon Gas ((KAR))

Sticking with Morgans, the broker's favourites in the local Technology sector are WiseTech Global ((WTC)) and Megaport ((MP1)), with Car Group ((CAR)) and Seek ((SEK)) the favourites in Media, Superloop ((SLC)) in Telecom and Light & Wonder ((LNW)) among gaming stocks.

Morgans has also Buy ratings for Xero ((XRO)) and NextDC ((NXT)).

For exposure to non-bank financials, the broker's favourites are Generation Development ((GDG)), MA Financial ((MAF)), and Tyro Payments ((TYR)).

****

Analysts at Morgan Stanley like to identify High-Conviction opportunities both ahead and after reporting seasons.

This time three ideas have been identified throughout the Asian coverage. One of these is ASX-listed: Xero ((XRO)).

****

Jarden's monthly update on Australia's small caps ("emerging companies") highlights 18 Best Ideas, including the following Key Picks considered offering the highest potential return, in order of projected total investment reward:

-GQG Partners ((GQG))
-Dicker Data ((DDR))
-Universal Store Holdings ((UNI))
-Qualitas ((QAL))
-EVT Ltd ((EVT))
-Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI))
-Temple & Webster ((TPW))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))

The other ten stocks selected:

-Aussie Broadband ((ABB))
-Arena REIT ((ARF))
-Genesis Energy ((GNE))
-Harvey Norman ((HVN))
-Integral Diagnostics ((IDX))
-Karoon Energy ((KAR))
-Michael Hill ((MHJ))
-Pepper Money ((PPM))
-Symal Group ((SYL))
-Vault Minerals ((VAU))

Since the prior update in early June, no stocks were removed. Both Aussie Broadband and Pinnacle Investment Management are new inclusions.

****

Analysts at Moelis remain positive on ASX-listed gold companies with Buy ratings reserved for:

-Vault Minerals ((VAU))
-Alkane Resources ((ALK))
-Ora Banda Mining ((OBM))
-Pantoro Gold ((PNR))

Over at Stockbroker Morgans the preference lays with Northern Star ((NST)) and Newmont Corp ((NEM)) among larger caps, with Regis Resources ((RRL)) preferred among mid-cap options.

Analysts at Ord Minnett favour Newmont Corp and Vault Minerals.

Other ideas in a largely 'cheap' looking resources sector, according to Ord Minnett, include Capstone Copper, Rio Tinto ((RIO)), Paladin Energy ((PDN)) and Lotus Resources ((LOT)), and Whitehaven Coal ((WHC)) as the quality play among coal producers.

****

Goldman Sachs' selection of local Conviction Buys is now reduced to three:

-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Worley ((WOR))

Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield ((URW)) is also included for its Paris listing with the local listing about to disappear.

Best Buys & Conviction Calls

Bell Potter's sector preferences for the financial year ahead.

Listed Investment Companies ((LICs)
-Australian Foundation Investment Company ((AFI))
-Metrics Master Income Trust ((MXT))
-MFF Capital Investments ((MFF))

Agricultural & Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG)
-Bega Cheese ((BGA))
-Rural Funds Group ((RFF))
-Elders ((ELD))

Technology
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))
-Gentrack ((GTK))
-Seek ((SEK))

Diversified Financials
-Cuscal ((CCL))
-Praemium ((PPS))
-Regal Partners ((RPL))

Real Estate
-Aspen Group ((APZ))
-Cedar Woods ((CWP))
-Region Group ((RGN))

Retail
-JB Hi-Fi ((JBH))
-Universal Store Holdings ((UNI))
-Propel Funeral Partners ((PFP))

Industrials
-LGI Ltd ((LGI))
-Environmental Group ((EGL))

Healthcare
-Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX))
-Neuren Pharmaceuticals ((NEU))
-Monash IVF ((MVF))

Gold
-Minerals 260 ((MI6))
-Santana Minerals ((SMI))
-Evolution Mining ((EVN))

Base Metals
-Aeris Resources ((AIS))
-Nickel Industries ((NIC))
-AIC Mines ((A1M))

Strategic Minerals & Processing Technologies
-Alpha HPA ((A4N))
-IperionX ((IPX))

Energy
-Boss Energy ((BOE))

Mining & Industrial Services
-Develop Global ((DVP))
-ALS Ltd ((ALQ))
-Duratec ((DUR))

****

favourites inside the local small cap retail space (in order of preference) as selected by Retail sector analysts at Citi:

-Universal Store Holdings ((UNI))
-Baby Bunting ((BBY))
-Nick Scali ((NCK))
-Temple & Webster ((TPW))
-Beacon Lighting ((BLX))
-Harvey Norman ((HVN))
-Accent Group ((AX1))
-Super Retail ((SUL))
-Premier Investments ((PMV))
-Bapcor ((BAP))
-Lovisa Holdings ((LOV))

****

Crestone's Best Sector Ideas:

-Ampol ((ALD))
-APA Group ((APA))
-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-Beach Energy ((BPT))
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Cochlear ((COH))
-CSL ((CSL))
-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-IGO Ltd ((IGO))
-James Hardie Industries ((JHX))
-Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Metcash ((MTS))
-Monadelphous Group ((MND))
-REA Group ((REA))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Xero ((XRO))

Crestone's selection for sustainable income:

-Amcor ((AMC))
-Ampol ((ALD))
-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-APA Group ((APA))
-Atlas Arteria ((ALX))
-Beach Energy ((BPT))
-BHP Group ((BHP))
-Car Group ((CAR))
-Coles Group ((COL))
-Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure ((DBI))
-Iress ((IRE))
-Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Metcash ((MTS))
-Mirvac Group ((MGR))
-Pro Medicus ((PME))
-QBE Insurance ((QBE))
-RAM Essential Services ((REP))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Tabcorp Holdings ((TAH))
-Telstra Group ((TLS))

****

Morgans' selection of Best Ideas consists of the following 29 ASX-listed companies:

Acrow ((ACF))
ALS Ltd ((ALQ))
Amotiv ((AOV))
BHP Group ((BHP))
Collins Foods ((CKF))
Corporate Travel Management ((CTD))
CSL ((CSL))
Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure ((DBI))
Dexus Convenience Retail REIT ((DXC))
DigiCo Infrastructure REIT ((DGT))
EBR Systems ((EBR))
Elders ((ELD))
Goodman Group ((GMG))
Guzman y Gomez ((GYG))
James Hardie Industries ((JHX))
Light & Wonder ((LNW))
Lovisa Holdings ((LOV))
MA Financial Group ((MAF))
Megaport ((MP1))
Orica ((ORI))
Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI))
ResMed ((RMD))
South32 ((S32))
Treasury Wine Estates ((TWE))
Qualitas ((QAL))
Universal Store Holdings ((UNI))
Whitehaven Coal ((WHC))
WiseTech Global ((WTC))
Woodside Energy ((WDS))

****

Morgan Stanley's six Conviction stock picks that each represent a compelling individual investment case underpinned by idiosyncratic drivers and the ability to deliver earnings upside, believed to be underappreciated by the market.

-WiseTech Global ((WTC))
-Charter Hall Group ((CHC))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Life360 Inc ((360))
-Generation Development Group ((GDG))
-Data#3 ((DTL))

Morgan Stanley's Macro+ Focus List in Australia is currently made up of:

-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-Car Group ((CAR))
-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-GPT Group ((GPT))
-James Hardie Industries ((JHX))
-Orica ((ORI))
-Santos ((STO))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Xero ((XRO))

Morgan Stanley's Australia Macro+ Model Portfolio is currently made up of the following:

-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-CommBank ((CBA))
-National Australia Bank ((NAB))
-Westpac ((WBC))

-Macquarie Group ((MQG))

-Suncorp Group ((SUN))

-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-GPT Group ((GPT))
-Scentre Group ((SCG))
-Stockland ((STG))

-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-Eagers Automotive ((APE))
-CAR Group ((CAR))
-Domino's Pizza ((DMP))
-The Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Wesfarmers ((WES))
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))
-Xero ((XRO))

-James Hardie ((JHX))

-Amcor ((AMC))
-Cleanaway Waste Management ((CWY))
-Orica ((ORI))

-Coles Group ((COL))

-CSL ((CSL))
-ResMed ((RMD))

-AGL Energy ((AGL))
-Telstra ((TLS))
-Transurban ((TCL))

-BHP Group ((BHP))
-Newmont Corp ((NEM))
-Rio Tinto ((RIO))
-South32 ((S32))

-Santos ((STO))
-Woodside Energy ((WDS))

****

Morningstar's Equity Best Ideas (Conviction Buy Calls by any other name, mostly chosen because of under-valuation).

-Auckland International Airport ((AIA))
-ASX Ltd ((ASX))
-Aurizon Holdings ((AZJ))
-Bapcor ((BAP))
-Dexus ((DXS))
-Domino's Pizza Enterprises ((DMP))
-Endeavour Group ((EDV))
-Fineos Corp ((FCL))
-IDP Education ((IEL))
-IGO Ltd ((IGO))
-Ramsay Health Care ((RHC))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))
-Spark New Zealand ((SPK))
-Woodside Energy ((WDS))

****

Ord Minnett's High Conviction calls (all nominations made by sector analysts on a 12 month horizon):

-Aussie Broadband ((ABB))
-Brazilian Rare Earths ((BRE))
-Bubs Australia ((BUB))
-Cuscal ((CCL))
-Qoria ((QOR))
-Regis Healthcare ((REG))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))
-Vault Minerals ((VAU))
-Waypoint REIT ((WPR))
-Zip Co ((ZIP))

****

Shaw and Partners' Large Caps Model Portfolio:

-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-BlueScope Steel ((BSL))
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Dexus ((DXS))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Newmont Corp ((NEM))
-South32 ((S32))

Shaw and Partners' emerging companies Top Picks:

-AML3D ((AL3))
-Australian Vanadium ((AVL))
-Bannerman Energy ((BMN))
-Chrysos ((C79))
-Humm Group ((HUM))
-Metro Mining ((MMI))
-Santana Minerals ((SMI))
-Southern Cross Electrical ((SXE))

****

UBS's Most Preferred Stocks in Australia

In Resources segment:
-BHP Group ((BHP))
-BlueScope Steel ((BSL))
-Newmont Corp ((NEM))
-Orica ((ORI))
-Origin Energy ((ORG))

Among Financials & A-REITs:
-Dexus ((DXS))
-Lifestyle Communities ((LIC))
-Mirvac Group ((MGR))
-Medibank Private ((MPL))
-QBE Insurance ((QBE))
-Steadfast Group ((SDF))

Among Industrials:
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Collins Foods ((CKF))
-Cochlear ((COH))
-Coles Group ((COL))
-NextDC ((NXT))
-REA Group ((REA))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-SGH Ltd ((SGH))
-TechnologyOne ((TNE))
-Telstra Corp ((TLS))
-Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX))
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))

UBS's Least Preferred Stocks in Australia

-Aurizon Holdings ((AZJ))
-ASX Ltd ((ASX))
-Bank of Queensland ((BOQ))
-CommBank ((CBA))
-Charter Hall Group ((CHC))
-Computershare ((CPU))
-Evolution Mining ((EVN))
-Temple & Webster ((TPW))

****

Wilsons' Key Investment Opportunities:

-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))
-Woolworths ((WOW))

High conviction investment ideas:

-ARB Corp ((ARB))
-Maas Group ((MGH))
-Nanosonics ((NAN))
-Ridley Corp ((RIC))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))

Speculative idea:

-Clarity Pharmaceuticals ((CU6))

Wilsons' Focus Portfolio currently contains the following:

-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-BHP Group ((BHP))
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Car Group ((CAR))
-Collins Foods ((CKF))
-CSL ((CSL))
-Evolution Mining ((EVN))
-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT ((HCW))
-Hub24 ((HUB))
-James Hardie ((JHX))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Northern Star Resources ((NST))
-Pinnacle Investment Managers ((PNI))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Sandfire Resources ((SFR))
-Santos ((STO))
-South32 ((S32))
-TechnologyOne ((TNE))
-Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX))
-The Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Westpac Bank ((WBC))
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))
-Woolworths Group ((WOW))
-Worley ((WOR))
-Xero ((XRO))

Paying subscribers have 24/7 access to my curated lists, including All-Weather Performers at: https://fnarena.com/index.php/analysis-data/all-weather-stocks/

FNArena Talks

Interview for Philip Muscatello's Shares For Beginners about the ins and outs of All-Weathers and the portfolio over the decade past:

https://www.sharesforbeginners.com/blog/fnarena-all-weather

YouTube: https://youtu.be/m33cYbtJsDs?si=MQTAW8YgI2oNjKc4

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/43A2QQWyfGdHYgixBalJo7?si=dd99905f27554381

Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/all-weather-portfolio-rudi-filapek-vandyck-fnarena/id1451778025?i=1000715348354

Ask FNArena

With fiscal 2025 in the rear view and the August results season only weeks away, FNArena is preparing for an online live event, allowing subscribers and investors to ask questions about what to expect, individual companies, specific strategies, et cetera.

Yours truly will do his best to prepare and answer as many questions as possible. No date has been set as yet, but we're aiming for the final week of July.

Questions can be send in beforehand via Editor@fnarena.com. More details to follow.

(Do note that, in line with all my analyses, appearances and presentations, all of the above names and calculations are provided for educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions.)  

P.S. I - All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert for my Rudi's View stories. Go to My Alerts (top bar of the website) and tick the box in front of 'Rudi's View'. You will receive an email alert every time a new Rudi's View story has been published on the website. 

P.S. II - If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.

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