Author: Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Oct 20, 2025

Daily Market Reports | Oct 20 2025

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

A1M   APZ   AWJ   BTR   DDR   ELV   FBU   GMD   IGO   LTR   PLS   VUL  

APZ    ASPEN GROUP LIMITED

Real Estate - Overnight Price: $5.05

Moelis rates ((APZ)) as Hold (3) -

Moelis sticks with its Hold rating for Aspen Group while its price target for the shares has improved to $5.22 from $4.43.

Aspen has lifted FY26 underlying pre-tax EPS guidance to 20.1c from 19.0c alongside an upbeat 1Q26 update including 5.3c underlying pre-tax EPS (+21% y/y), a strong Darwin Freespirit peak season (NRI +22% y/y), and 30 development settlements with 112 contracts in hand.

The broker highlights two acquisitions: a 300-site Wallaroo, SA project (a pivot toward build-to-rent townhouses plus land-lease homes) and a Surry Hills office to partly serve as HQ.

Balance-sheet headroom is ample (Moelis expects gearing at circa 18% by Dec-26), supporting pipeline expansion and a higher valuation, hence the higher price target.

Forecasts have slightly moved higher.

This report was published on October 17, 2025.

Target price is $5.22 Current Price is $5.05 Difference: $0.17
If APZ meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.25.

Forecast for FY27:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 12.20 cents and EPS of 22.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.54.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AWJ    AURIC MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver - Overnight Price: $0.29

Taylor Collison rates ((AWJ)) as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) -

Taylor Collison starts coverage on Auric Mining with Speculative Buy and $0.39 price target, arguing the story shifts from toll-treating to an integrated model built around Munda and the recently bought Burbanks mill.

The broker expects near-term cash from the Munda starter pit (6.1koz processed Oct–Q1 CY26) and models AISC $3,500/oz versus a $5,500/oz deck, implying solid margins and circa $11m operating cash flow.

Longer term, value is tied to scaling the Munda main pit and refurbishing/expanding Burbanks (180ktpa) to reduce third-party costs. 

Primary risk: execution on processing pathway and cost/grade variability, the broker says.

This report was published on October 10, 2025.

Target price is $0.39 Current Price is $0.29 Difference: $0.1
If AWJ meets the Taylor Collison target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BTR    BRIGHTSTAR RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver - Overnight Price: $0.60

Petra Capital rates ((BTR)) as Buy (1) -

Petra Capital keeps Brightstar Resources on Buy after a "strong" Sep Q’25 update: production rose 90% q/q to 7.0koz as Fish underground joined Second Fortune.

FY26 guidance stays 29–34koz at AISC $3,800–4,000/oz; the broker models 33koz at AISC $3,855/oz.

Forecasts rise mainly on a higher gold deck (+12–25% across FY26–LT), partly offset by an -8% trim to FY26 volumes and a 2% AISC lift, taking the price target to $1.57.

Only minor amendments have been made to forecasts.

This report was published on October 15, 2025.

Target price is $1.57 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: $0.97
If BTR meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 162% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.50.

Forecast for FY27:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.36.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


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Australian investors stay informed with FNArena – your trusted source for Australian financial news. We deliver expert analysis, daily updates on the ASX and commodity markets, and deep insights into companies on the ASX200 and ASX300, and beyond. Whether you're seeking a reliable financial newsletter or comprehensive finance news and detailed insights, FNArena offers unmatched coverage of the stock market news that matters. As a leading financial online newspaper, we help you stay ahead in the fast-moving world of Australian finance news.

Aussie Dividends Lagging Global Trend

Dividends are experiencing a firm uptrend globally but Australia is not keeping up. Gone are the days when iron ore producers featured among the world's top payers.

-ASX' Top dividend payers are paying out less
-Iron ore miners, energy companies are reducing payouts, with further cuts expected
-Globally dividends are experiencing strong uptrend
-Japan’s structural pivot toward shareholder returns includes strong growth in dividends

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

Gone are the days when Australia’s largest iron ore miners sat on top of the world for largest annual dividend payments to shareholders; that was so 2021.

This year, top dividend payers are largely made up of US and European listed companies let by Microsoft, Nestle, Novartis, Exxon Mobil and HSBC Holdings.

The world’s number one ranking remains with China Construction Bank Corp, which has managed to consolidate its position as the world’s largest dividend payer (although by paying out less than in the year prior).

Domestically, BHP Group ((BHP)) and Rio Tinto ((RIO)) remain top dividend destinations on the ASX, paying out respectively US$7.4bn and US$7bn in their fiscal 2024 years.

‘Seven’ is also the magical starting number for CommBank ((CBA)), albeit in Australian dollars, with Australia’s largest lender paying out $7.8bn to its shareholders in FY24.

Alas, the trend is not that favourable for shareholders in each of Australia's heavyweight dividend payers.

For the fiscal year to June 30, 2025 BHP Group paid out -US$1.8bn less. Fortescue ((FMG)) equally reduced its payout to $3.4bn from $6.1bn in FY24.

Rio Tinto's fiscal year runs January-December and its half-yearly payout of US$3.8bn was -7% below the US$4.1bn paid out for the first half of 2024.

CommBank, on the other hand, still managed to increase its payout to $7.94bn in FY25.

As indicated, the latest global rankings by Capital Group no longer features any of Australia’s dividend champions inside the Global Top 20.

Global Dividend Payers - Top20 - Capital Group

Global Dividend Payers - Top20 - Capital Group

Source: Capital Group

Capital Group’s global study shows global dividends surged to a record US$1.14trn in the first half of 2025, with Australia one of the few weak spots as falling commodity prices forced big miners to cut cheques to shareholders.

Capital Group’s Global Equity Study – Dividend Watch (Edition 1, Sept 2025) tracks payouts across the world’s 1,600 largest listed companies.

The global picture

-Topline growth: Worldwide dividends rose 7.7% year-on-year in H1; on a cleaner “core” basis (excluding FX moves, timing shifts and specials), growth was 6.2%.

Ordinary dividends have risen to fresh highs, with specials still elevated but a touch lower than 2024.

-Sector leader: Financials did the heavy lifting, paying a record US$299bn and accounting for roughly two-fifths of global growth.

Banks led, with names from Japan (Mitsubishi UFJ), the US (JPMorgan) and Singapore (DBS) among the biggest dividend lifters.

The situation looks less buoyant for Australian banks who paid out less in the first half because Westpac ((WBC)) paid a special last year that was not repeated.

Equally so: when three of Australia’s Big Four report FY25 financials in November total dividends paid out by ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) and Westpac ((WBC)) for the year are projected to fall short of last year’s numbers.

-Regional stand-outs: Japan was this year’s breakout story with 13.8% core growth, reflecting record profits and a shift toward shareholder returns.

Continental Europe grew more slowly (5.6% core) as auto makers trimmed payouts.

-Where growth may slow in H2: The report notes the seasonal mix in the second half favours slower-growing regions --the UK, China and Australia-- implying a softer global run-rate into year-end.

Australia: miners drag, specials mask the pain

-Core trend: Australia’s core dividends fell -10.6% in H1 2025. The culprits were cuts from BHP, Fortescue and Rio Tinto, which together shaved -US$2.4bn from payouts as lower commodity prices pressured cash flows.

Woodside Energy ((WDS)) and Santos ((STO)) also reduced.

-Topline vs reality: Headline payouts in US dollars dipped -2.3%; in Australian dollars they rose 1.0%, flattered by a very large special dividend from Suncorp Group ((SUN)) following the sale of its banking operations to ANZ Bank.

-Concentration effect: The study stresses the ASX’s heavy skew to a handful of miners, energy majors and big financials, making it “hard for the second tier to make much impact” when the giants tighten the taps.

What it means for Australian income investors

-Expect a patchier H2: With seasonality leaning toward Australia and other slower cohorts, headline growth is likely to cool in the back half.

-Banks vs resources: Globally, banks and insurers are supporting dividend growth; resources are the laggard.

That mix argues for diversified income beyond the local miners (and energy producers).

-Watch Japan’s reform tailwind: For investors not afraid to move offshore, Japan’s structural pivot toward shareholder returns --and double-digit core growth-- offers a contrasting income stream to Australia’s commodity cycle.

2025 Dividend Growth Globally - Capital Group

2025 Dividend Growth Globally - Capital Group

On current forecasts, BHP is expected to reduce its dividend in FY26, and again in FY27. Rio Tinto, whose fiscal years runs January-December, is expected to pay out less for 2025 than last year, but with an increase expected next year.

Fortescue's annual dividends are equally projected to reduce in each of FY25 and FY26.

Woodside Energy cut its dividend in 2024 and is projected to cut again in each of 2025 and 2026. Consensus sees Santos paying out less in 2025, but expects this company to lift its dividend next year.

For more details: see Stock Analysis on the website.

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Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.

FNArena is proud about its track record and past achievements: Ten Years On

Australian investors stay informed with FNArena – your trusted source for Australian financial news. We deliver expert analysis, daily updates on the ASX and commodity markets, and deep insights into companies on the ASX200 and ASX300, and beyond. Whether you're seeking a reliable financial newsletter or comprehensive finance news and detailed insights, FNArena offers unmatched coverage of the stock market news that matters. As a leading financial online newspaper, we help you stay ahead in the fast-moving world of Australian finance news.

FNArena Corporate Results Monitor – 05-09-2025

FNArena's Monitor keeps track of corporate earnings result releases, including broker views, ratings and target price changes and beat/miss assessments. By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck Welcome to the FNArena Corporate Results Monitor. Today's Reports:
  • ((NXD)) - NextEd Group
Check it out at https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/reporting_season/ Welcome to the FNArena Corporate Results Monitor: Subscribers can access the monitor at any time using this link, Corporate Results Monitor, or via the drop-down menu starting from Analysis & Data on the horizontal bar across the website. Whereas previously the day's (often long) list of reporting stocks and result assessments were made available at day's end, the new format allows us to update more regularly during peak times. The list of the day's reporting stocks will build as each day progresses, and the full table of all result assessments will build each day as the season progresses. At any time, subscribers can print out the table in PDF form using the button provided. The table includes broker ratings and consensus target price changes and a brief commentary for each reporting company. For further information on the relevance of this information, please see the Guide below. Guide: Each day of the Australian corporate reporting season, FNArena provides a summary of broker responses to the previous day's profit result releases from companies under coverage. Readers are reminded that it matters not what actual profit/loss result is posted by each company but by how much that result exceeded/fell short of stock analysts' consensus forecasts. Stock price movements on the day of release, and in many cases for the months following the release, will often be determined by the extent of "beats" and "misses" of underlying earnings as well as company guidance and analyst/management outlook. A rolling summary table is updated in real time each day on the FNArena website and will build as the season progresses. Additions are made each day, consistent with releases dates, and stocks will then be listed in alphabetical order for ease of use until the full picture of the reporting season emerges. Note that companies assessed include only those covered by the eight major stockbrokers in the FNArena database and that ratings changes and targets are those provided only by the database brokers. Note also that “beat” and “miss” assessments are open to an element of subjectivity and not simply a result-versus-consensus-forecast comparison. Mitigating factors include one-off items, top line versus bottom line relevance, forward guidance as an important consideration and so forth. In many cases “profit” per se is not the most relevant performance indicator. Disclaimer: While FNArena's Corporate Results Monitor is being compiled with great care and our best endeavours, investors should note that we cannot guarantee that all data and information gathered and on display is 100% accurate at all times. FNArena does not accept any responsibility for errors and omissions that can occur. Investors should always do their own research and consult with a financial expert before making investment decisions. FNArena's Corporate Results Monitor is an informative tool, it does not not contain investment advice and should not be treated as such. Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided. FNArena is proud about its track record and past achievements: Ten Years On

Australian investors stay informed with FNArena – your trusted source for Australian financial news. We deliver expert analysis, daily updates on the ASX and commodity markets, and deep insights into companies on the ASX200 and ASX300, and beyond. Whether you're seeking a reliable financial newsletter or comprehensive finance news and detailed insights, FNArena offers unmatched coverage of the stock market news that matters. As a leading financial online newspaper, we help you stay ahead in the fast-moving world of Australian finance news.

Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Sep 03, 2025

Daily Market Reports | Sep 03 2025

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

29M   A1N   ACE   ACF (2)   ACL   AHX   AMI   AUB   BGL   CVV   CWP   EMR   EVT   FMG   GNE   HGO   HLO   IDX (2)   IGO   INA   JIN (2)   LOV   MAD   MVF   NAN   NEU   NUZ   OBM   PDN   PFP   PRU   RMD   SCG   SDV   SFR   SHL   SKS   SLX   SOM   TLX   TYR   WEB   WGX  

29M    29METALS LIMITED

Copper - Overnight Price: $0.34

Jarden rates ((29M)) as Underweight (4) -

29Metals achieved an interim earnings beat through what Jarden describes as a "surprise" inclusion of $54m in insurance proceeds, which accounted for the difference.

Ex-insurance proceeds, cash flow was negative at -$52m over the first half for an overall cash outflow of -$65m, with repayment of debt and leases of -$66m. Liquidity stood at around $202m at the end of June.

The miner retained 2025 guidance, and the analyst remains comfortable with production forecasts below management's guidance.

No change to Underweight rating and 30c target price.

This report was published on August 26, 2025.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If 29M meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.25, suggesting downside of -27.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 21.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

A1N    ARN MEDIA LIMITED

Print, Radio & TV - Overnight Price: $0.51

Canaccord Genuity rates ((A1N)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Canaccord Genuity describes ARN Media's 1H25 result as complicated, with the Hong Kong OOH (Cody Outdoor) business reclassified as discontinued (pending disposal) and the agency business Emotiv sold in May 2025.

The continuing Audio business materially underperformed peers, particularly in Metro and Regional Radio, despite digital growth. Revenue of $142.3m was down -7% y/y and missed the broker's forecast by -7%.

Gross margins improved and cost savings were substantial, but the broker trimmed FY25 EBITDA forecast by -14%. Revenue forecast was lowered by -7%.

Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target cut to 50c from 95c.

This report was published on August 28, 2025.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.51 Difference: minus $0.005 (current price is over target).
If A1N meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.49, suggesting downside of -3.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 5.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.9, implying annual growth of 288.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 8.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.5, implying annual growth of 12.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ACE    ACUSENSUS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics - Overnight Price: $1.00

Wilsons rates ((ACE)) as Overweight (1) -

Wilsons highlights FY25 was a strong year for Acusensus, marked by contract wins across every tender for new enforcement services in Australia and New Zealand. The company also invested in growth by spending -$13m on PP&E.

Revenue rose 20% y/y to $59.4m, meeting the broker's forecast. Gross margins fell -119bps to 44.9% and the company expects it to decline further as speed enforcement cameras make up a larger proportion of revenue.

EBITDA missed the broker's estimate due to higher-than-expected headcount and spending to support growth in the UK and the US. 

FY26 revenue guidance midpoint was 5% above consensus, leading to a 5-7% lift in the broker's revenue forecasts for FY26-27. EBITDA forecasts, however, declined due to growth-supporting expenses.

Overweight. Target trimmed to $1.21 from $1.23.

This report was published on August 27, 2025.

Target price is $1.21 Current Price is $1.00 Difference: $0.21
If ACE meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 62.50.

Forecast for FY27:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 45.45.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ACF    ACROW LIMITED

Building Products & Services - Overnight Price: $1.03

Moelis rates ((ACF)) as Buy (1) -

Acrow's FY25 revenue rose by 23% and earnings (EBITDA) lifted by 8% year-on-year, broadly in line with guidance and consensus, highlights Moelis.

Industrial Access Services expanded rapidly, observes the broker, and now accounts for 50% of group revenue, with hire contracts up 27% to $98.2m. FY25 revenue grew 83% to $132m, driven by organic growth and the Brand and Above acquisition, explains the analyst.

Net debt rose to $123m, equal to 1.8 times earnings, with management targeting reduction in FY26 as capex falls to -$27m.

The broker lowers its FY26, FY27, and FY28 EPS forecasts by -14%, -10%, and -4%, respectively, reflecting weaker expectations for Formwork. Moelis reduces its target price to $1.32 from $1.44 and retains a Buy rating.

This report was published on August 26, 2025.

Target price is $1.32 Current Price is $1.03 Difference: $0.285
If ACF meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.31, suggesting upside of 26.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 5.70 cents and EPS of 11.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.6, implying annual growth of 53.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.9.

Forecast for FY27:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 6.30 cents and EPS of 12.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.4, implying annual growth of 15.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.7.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Petra Capital rates ((ACF)) as Buy (1) -

Acrow's FY25 earnings (EBITDA) of $80.2m came in at the low end of guidance, notes Petra Capital, with formwork revenue weaker due to project delays and softer gross margins in the second half.

Debt levels rose and cash flow declined, while Industrial Access revenue doubled and continued to consolidate acquisitions, highlights the analyst.

Petra Capital expects FY26 will remain challenging, with formwork demand subdued in the first half. Industrial Access revenue is forecast to reach around $200m, driving 23.7% revenue growth and 5.8% earnings growth.

The broker's forecasts now include the Brisbane Olympics, with activity expected from 2H27 through 1H31. The project could deliver $76-152m of sector revenue, providing meaningful upside for formwork.

The analyst highlights a pipeline of $217.5m and sees earnings stabilising as projects are delivered. Moelis cuts its target price to $1.68 from $1.80 and retains a Buy rating.

This report was published on August 27, 2025.

Target price is $1.68 Current Price is $1.03 Difference: $0.645
If ACF meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.31, suggesting upside of 26.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 5.60 cents and EPS of 11.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.6, implying annual growth of 53.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.9.

Forecast for FY27:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 7.80 cents and EPS of 15.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.4, implying annual growth of 15.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.7.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ACL    AUSTRALIAN CLINICAL LABS LIMITED

Healthcare services - Overnight Price: $2.67

Wilsons rates ((ACL)) as Overweight (1) -

Wilsons has an Overweight rating and $3.85 target price on Australian Clinical Labs.

The company recorded a 6% y/y lift in group revenue in FY25, with underlying net profit of $34m beating the broker's forecast by 3%. 

The broker noted prudent cost management, particularly in labour, alongside targeted, profitable revenue growth resulted in margins outperforming its FY25 expectations.

FY26 revenue guidance of $760-780m implies a 4% increase at the midpoint but missed the broker's and consensus forecast by -3%. The broker sees this as a near-term headwind but expects company-wide initiatives to drive meaningful margin lift in FY27, and double-digit margins by FY28.

This report was published on August 27, 2025.

Target price is $3.85 Current Price is $2.67 Difference: $1.18
If ACL meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 11.40 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.05.

Forecast for FY27:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 13.20 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.14.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


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Australian investors stay informed with FNArena – your trusted source for Australian financial news. We deliver expert analysis, daily updates on the ASX and commodity markets, and deep insights into companies on the ASX200 and ASX300, and beyond. Whether you're seeking a reliable financial newsletter or comprehensive finance news and detailed insights, FNArena offers unmatched coverage of the stock market news that matters. As a leading financial online newspaper, we help you stay ahead in the fast-moving world of Australian finance news.

The Short Report – 21 Aug 2025

FNArena's weekly update on short positions in the Australian share market.

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

See Guide further below (for readers with full access).

Summary:

Week Ending August 14th, 2025 (most recent data available through ASIC).

10%+

BOE 21.92%
PDN 18.40%
PLS 15.45%
IEL 13.46%
PNV 11.67%
MIN 11.59%
LIC 11.40%
CUV 10.83%

In: CUV
Out: SLX, LTR

9.0-9.9%

CTD 9.66%
SLX 9.03%

In: SLX

8.0-8.9%

PWH 8.39%
CTT 8.34%
ILU 8.26%
DYL 8.23%

In: ILU

7.0-7.9%

GYG 7.87%
BGL 7.75%
NAN 7.69%
LOT 7.57%
KAR 7.57%
NXT 7.43%
LTR 7.32%

In: LTR
Out: ILU, CU6

6.0-6.9%

DMP 6.93%
SGR 6.73%
CU6 6.43%
BRG 6.20%
VUL 6.02%

In: CU6, BRG, VUL
Out: IGO, VEA

5.0-5.9%

HLS 5.96%
VEA 5.94%
RIO 5.93%
APX 5.76%
MSB 5.69%
FLT 5.53%
ELD 5.50%
IGO 5.39%
GMD 5.29%
PEN 5.19%
MVF 5.14%
CIA 5.08%
TLX 5.02%

In: VEA, IGO, MVF
Out: BRG, CUV, VUL, LYC
 

ASX20 Short Positions (%)

Code Last Week Week Before Code Last Week Week Before
ALL 0.4 0.4 NAB 0.6 0.6
ANZ 0.6 0.5 QBE 0.1 0.3
BHP 0.8 0.8 RIO 5.9 5.8
BXB 0.8 0.7 STO 0.3 0.3
CBA 0.7 0.7 TCL 0.3 0.3
COL 0.3 0.4 TLS 0.3 0.3
CSL 0.6 0.6 WBC 0.5 0.5
FMG 1.9 1.8 WDS 3.3 3.5
GMG 0.6 0.6 WES 0.5 0.5
MQG 0.7 0.7 WOW 0.9 0.9

To see the full Short Report, please go to this link

Guide:

The Short Report draws upon data provided by the Australian Securities & Investment Commission (ASIC) to highlight significant weekly moves in short positions registered on stocks listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). Short positions in exchange-traded funds (ETF) and non-ordinary shares are not included. Short positions below 5% are not included in the table below but may be noted in the accompanying text if deemed significant.

Please take note of the Important Information provided at the end of this report. Percentage amounts in this report refer to percentage of ordinary shares on issue.

Stock codes highlighted in green have seen their short positions reduce in the week by an amount sufficient to move them into a lower percentage bracket. Stocks highlighted in red have seen their short positions increase in the week by an amount sufficient to move them into a higher percentage bracket. Moves in excess of one percentage point or more are discussed in the Movers & Shakers report below.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT THIS REPORT

The above information is sourced from daily reports published by the Australian Investment & Securities Commission (ASIC) and is provided by FNArena unqualified as a service to subscribers. FNArena would like to make it very clear that immediate assumptions cannot be drawn from the numbers alone.

It is wrong to assume that short percentages published by ASIC simply imply negative market positions held by fund managers or others looking to profit from a fall in respective share prices. While all or part of certain short percentages may indeed imply such, there are also a myriad of other reasons why a short position might be held which does not render that position “naked” given offsetting positions held elsewhere. Whatever balance of percentages truly is a “short” position would suggest there are negative views on a stock held by some in the market and also would suggest that were the news flow on that stock to turn suddenly positive, “short covering” may spark a short, sharp rally in that share price. However short positions held as an offset against another position may prove merely benign.

Often large short positions can be attributable to a listed hybrid security on the same stock where traders look to “strip out” the option value of the hybrid with offsetting listed option and stock positions. Short positions may form part of a short stock portfolio offsetting a long share price index (SPI) futures portfolio – a popular trade which seeks to exploit windows of opportunity when the SPI price trades at an overextended discount to fair value. Short positions may be held as a hedge by a broking house providing dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) underwriting services or other similar services. Short positions will occasionally need to be adopted by market makers in listed equity exchange traded fund products (EFT). All of the above are just some of the reasons why a short position may be held in a stock but can be considered benign in share price direction terms due to offsets.

Market makers in stock and stock index options will also hedge their portfolios using short positions where necessary. These delta hedges often form the other side of a client's long stock-long put option protection trade, or perhaps long stock-short call option (“buy-write”) position. In a clear example of how published short percentages can be misleading, an options market maker may hold a short position below the implied delta hedge level and that actually implies a “long” position in that stock.

Another popular trading strategy is that of “pairs trading” in which one stock is held short against a long position in another stock. Such positions look to exploit perceived imbalances in the valuations of two stocks and imply a “net neutral” market position.

Aside from all the above reasons as to why it would be a potential misconception to draw simply conclusions on short percentages, there are even wider issues to consider. ASIC itself will admit that short position data is not an exact science given the onus on market participants to declare to their broker when positions truly are “short”. Without any suggestion of deceit, there are always participants who are ignorant of the regulations. Discrepancies can also arise when short positions are held by a large investment banking operation offering multiple stock market services as well as proprietary trading activities. Such activity can introduce the possibility of either non-counting or double-counting when custodians are involved and beneficial ownership issues become unclear.

Finally, a simple fact is that the Australian Securities Exchange also keeps its own register of short positions. The figures provided by ASIC and by the ASX at any point do not necessarily correlate.

FNArena has offered this qualified explanation of the vagaries of short stock positions as a warning to subscribers not to jump to any conclusions or to make investment decisions based solely on these unqualified numbers. FNArena strongly suggests investors seek advice from their stock broker or financial adviser before acting upon any of the information provided herein.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.

FNArena is proud about its track record and past achievements: Ten Years On

Australian investors stay informed with FNArena – your trusted source for Australian financial news. We deliver expert analysis, daily updates on the ASX and commodity markets, and deep insights into companies on the ASX200 and ASX300, and beyond. Whether you're seeking a reliable financial newsletter or comprehensive finance news and detailed insights, FNArena offers unmatched coverage of the stock market news that matters. As a leading financial online newspaper, we help you stay ahead in the fast-moving world of Australian finance news.

Rudi’s View: BlueScope Steel, IGO, GrainCorp, Pilbara Minerals, Santos & More

rudi-views
Always an independent thinker, Rudi has not shied away from making big out-of-consensus predictions that proved accurate later on. When Rio Tinto shares surged above $120 he wrote investors should sell. In mid-2008 he warned investors not to hold on to equities in oil producers. In August 2008 he predicted the largest sell-off in commodities stocks was about to follow. In 2009 he suggested Australian banks were an excellent buy. Between 2011 and 2015 Rudi consistently maintained investors were better off avoiding exposure to commodities and to commodities stocks. Post GFC, he dedicated his research to finding All-Weather Performers. See also "All-Weather Performers" on this website, as well as the Special Reports section.

Rudi's View | Aug 14 2025

In today's edition:

-FNArena's August Results Monitor
-What The Experts Are Saying
-Review All-Weather Model Portfolio
-Best Buys & Conviction Calls

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

FNArena's August Results Monitor

The Australian corporate results season has officially started but, as per unofficial tradition, the pace of corporate releases remains rather glacial this early in the month.

By this time next week, the numbers will be a lot larger, as the bulk for local seasons is reserved for the final two weeks of the month.

FNArena is keeping a close watch daily: https://fnarena.com/index.php/reporting_season/

What The Experts Are Saying

An observation  from UBS:

"After a multi-year period of underperformance, gold equities (GDX Index) have outperformed the gold price by >40% YTD.

"In particular, the last three months have been very strong for equities, despite a largely rangebound gold price. However, this has largely been an international phenomenon, with Australian gold stocks lagging quite materially.

"Gold miners have had a poor track record in recent years resulting in valuation de-rating; but recent results were a net positive for the global gold miners, with the stocks generally delivering record Free Cash Flow, 2025 production/ cost guidance generally maintained (despite higher royalties), management teams demonstrating discipline with limited increases in capex & increasing cash returns."


UBS's preferred sector exposures are Barrick Mining, Endeavour, Kinross, AngloGold, & Franco-Nevada. None are listed locally.

****

This month's update on Morningstar's Best Stock Ideas in Australia has seen the removal oif IGO Ltd ((IGO)) from the list and the inclusion of Pilbara Minerals ((PLS)).

Among the many discussions whether the return of positive momentum for lithium prices and share prices of linked exposures might prove justified, and sustainable, or not, Morningstar simply sees the market taking a more optimistic stance.

Lithium demand is expected to triple by 2023 from levels registered in 2023 and Pilbara has mine reserves spanning twenty years, and more.

IGO Ltd also has exposure to lithium, of course, but the preference has been switched to Pilbara.

Morningstar's selection of Best Stock Ideas (Conviction Buy Calls by any other name, mostly chosen because of under-valuation):

-Auckland International Airport ((AIA))
-ASX Ltd ((ASX))
-Aurizon Holdings ((AZJ))
-Bapcor ((BAP))
-Dexus ((DXS))
-Domino's Pizza Enterprises ((DMP))
-Endeavour Group ((EDV))
-Fineos Corp ((FCL))
-IDP Education ((IEL))
-Pilbara Minerals
-Ramsay Health Care ((RHC))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))
-Spark New Zealand ((SPK))
-Woodside Energy ((WDS))

****

Equally noteworthy: we couldn't help but noticing the Conviction Buy list at Goldman Sachs specifically for ASX-listed exposures is now down to three and with Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield ((URW)) about to disappear from the local bourse, will that be two remnants only by month's end?

-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield


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MEMBER LOGIN

Australian investors stay informed with FNArena – your trusted source for Australian financial news. We deliver expert analysis, daily updates on the ASX and commodity markets, and deep insights into companies on the ASX200 and ASX300, and beyond. Whether you're seeking a reliable financial newsletter or comprehensive finance news and detailed insights, FNArena offers unmatched coverage of the stock market news that matters. As a leading financial online newspaper, we help you stay ahead in the fast-moving world of Australian finance news.

Rudi Interviewed: Is August Too Early?

rudi-views
Always an independent thinker, Rudi has not shied away from making big out-of-consensus predictions that proved accurate later on. When Rio Tinto shares surged above $120 he wrote investors should sell. In mid-2008 he warned investors not to hold on to equities in oil producers. In August 2008 he predicted the largest sell-off in commodities stocks was about to follow. In 2009 he suggested Australian banks were an excellent buy. Between 2011 and 2015 Rudi consistently maintained investors were better off avoiding exposure to commodities and to commodities stocks. Post GFC, he dedicated his research to finding All-Weather Performers. See also "All-Weather Performers" on this website, as well as the Special Reports section.

Rudi's View | Aug 13 2025

It has become the 'unofficial' tradition in recent years: an interview with Livewire Markets ahead of yet another corporate reporting season in Australia.

This a sub-edited transcript from the pre-August results season interview that took place on August 5. 

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

It has become the 'unofficial' tradition in recent years: an interview with Livewire Markets ahead of yet another corporate reporting season in Australia.

Below is a sub-edited transcript from the pre-August results season interview that took place on August 5. The video is available on Livewire and on YouTube.

James Marley: Welcome to the Rules of Investing, Podcast that gets inside the minds of leading investors, economists and industry experts, brought to you by Livewire.

My name is James Marley. I'm going to be your host today. With reporting season on the ASX about to kick into full swing, my guest today is someone that has crunched the data on more results and the reactions from the market than just about anyone else.

Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor of research website FNArena and popular contributor to Livewire, is with me to help you get match fit and in the zone for the upcoming reporting season.

From the big picture on current valuations, the impacts of AI and the stocks to watch in August, this is going to be a cracking session.

Now, remember, if you're not subscribed to the Rules of Investment podcast, you can find it in all the major podcasting platforms, or you can sign up to Livewire Markets.

It's free. It's easy to register, and we'd love to have you on board. Now with that, I'd like to extend a very warm welcome to Rudi for our regular reporting season preview.

Rudi, great to have you online, and thanks so much for your time.

Rudi Filapek-Vandyck: My pleasure. The sound you're hearing is the rain coming down in Sydney on the moment this interview starts.

They're saying in investing timing is important. Apparently, with recording, it's equally as important.

James: I thought it was a sign that we're about to get rained down with a deluge of information on reporting season, and you're going to be our little safe harbour to help us get through it?

Rudi: I will definitely do my best, but after such an intro, half my work has already been done!

Valuations Are High, What Gives?

James: Well, we were having a chat about what will we talk about today? And you sent through a few points. One starting point are valuations. Are they high? Are they stretched? It's topical for investors. Difficult one to answer.

I'm going to draw attention to an article that my colleague Kerry Sun put together recently, which effectively told people to stop calling markets expensive. They're at all-time highs but the crux of the article is, drawing from UBS research, the market has evolved. Companies have gotten better.

Therefore, we need to think about market valuations in a different light. So Rudi, does that mean we need to get used to paying higher multiples, should we be more comfortable with higher valuations?

Rudi: I think the answer is yes, under certain circumstances, not always, but we definitely need to stop calling the market overvalued simply because the valuation multiples are higher than what we are used to.

It is being said that generals always fight the last war. I've come to the conclusion that most investors invest in yesterday's market, and they need to invest in tomorrow's market, of course, because it's all about looking forward.

 I can't emphasise enough how happy and how glad I am that stories like that and analyses like that are being published, not just by me, but by others as well.

Because I do think a whole change still needs to take place in the psyche of investors. Australia being a typical value-oriented market for such a long time, investors are constantly thinking that something trading on a PE of six or nine is, by default, a better long-term investment than something that's trading on 96 times.

We clearly saw over the past 15 years or so that's no longer true. In addition to all the arguments mentioned --and I completely subscribe to those arguments-- I do think there's also a very simple, easier way to understand the metrics for today's market.

We still reason in averages. We judge the market by the average PE ratio for the ASX200 and we judge the environment for corporate Australia by the average EPS growth forecast.

In both cases, the market is so polarised these days, and it has been for such a long time. The market has at least been polarised ever since covid hit. That's 2020, five years ago now.

On my analysis, the polarisation is quite extreme in today's market. What that means also is those averages we are used to watch, the PE ratios and the average EPS forecast, you can't take them at face value anymore.

A big part of the reason why the PE ratio looks this high for the Australian market is because we have 11% --Commbank ((CBA))-- of the index probably trading at the highest valuation any of us has seen in our lifetime.

At 11% of the index, of course, it's going to have a big influence on the average PE ratio, and that's one of the reasons why the PE ratio is that high.

The bigger question, I think, is should the market sell off because CBA is trading at an all-time high?

I know sentiment is important, but I would argue it doesn't need to. The other element is resources remain a very important input in Australia.

They are the second biggest index weight, and they too have an outsized impact on all the averages we can calculate for the index.

So I would often smile when the next person is calling for the bubble to burst.

I don't think there's a bubble. I think it's way too early to say there's a bubble. Are valuations high? Yes, they are, but there are particular reasons why that potentially can be justified.

 I'm sure we'll talk about it over the next however long this interview takes.

Why Is Corporate Australia Not Growing Earnings?

James: One of the things you mentioned there was earnings. And we get told, as investors, over time, where earnings go so too will share prices.

Same note from UBS, or a more recent note perhaps, pointed out we're about to get the second consecutive year of negative earnings growth for the ASX.

Now, to your point, that's on average, but we've got all-time highs being hit at the time when earnings are weak. So, what gives?

Rudi: Again, yes, you're right at face value. We are at an all-time high, with a PE ratio we very seldom see, on average, and August will mark the third consecutive year of negative EPS growth on average for the local market.

So you would think it's all about multiple expansion; there's no earnings growth here.

But that's not true when you look below the surface. Below the surface, the two largest components of the index locally, banks and resources, are weighing negatively on the average.

The banks are positive for this year, but it's not much, and the resources --again-- negative, both the mining companies and energy companies.

If you strip those out, you see the growth forecast for corporate Australia outside of those two sectors, is actually not that bad at all.

It's more in the mid to high single digits EPS growth. Long term the average in Australia is 5% EPS growth per year.

If the forecast now is six or seven or eight, that means there are large parts of the Australian economy that are performing above average.

Coming back to the polarisation that I touched upon earlier, what you will find in sectors is that one company has performed and the other one hasn't. If you want to drill down to it, it's usually that one company has performed operationally and the other one hasn't.

So, earnings do count, not only in August, but also for the in between seasons.

eye on value?

August Too Early?

James: Banks, it's going to be hard for them to meaningfully move their earnings. They're flat-ish type businesses and have been for a long time. Resources, highly cyclical. Can you see a turnaround story in that earnings outlook? People have been waiting for that broader earnings picture to move into positive territory again. Are we going to see it this August?

Rudi: Its going to be interesting. My view in advance, I think the question that will come to the fore for August is: is it not too early still?

That will be the question that will be asked for a lot of things. We've now had at least three years of large caps on average outperforming small caps. Is that going to reverse?

I think the question will be: is it not too early for that?

We have subdued consumer spending. We have profit warnings from consumer spending-related companies in Australia. Is that going to turn around in August?

I think the question will be: isn't it too early yet for that?

I also think the whole revival of the resources sector is most likely too early.

Are we going to see a big improvement in earnings forecasts? I think it's too early in August; the RBA has been very reluctant in helping out, Trump tariffs, it hasn't all helped.

I think maybe a more logical time will be February next year, instead of August this year, which clearly will pose some challenges for investors.

You can also expand that to other sectors and to other themes. Are we going to see a broadening out of the advantages, the benefits, the applications of AI across corporate Australia?

Probably a little bit too early to see concrete results of that. If you take the broad view this whole AI theme at some stage will stumble and at least have a pause, but that too, I think, will be too early for August. I think that will continue.

So, I think the challenges are lining up, and I know the usual reflex of investors is trying to figure out which companies haven't performed yet -- they might perform in August.

I think the danger is they will say goodbye too early to companies that have performed and that still have a lot of firepower to continue performing.

If you look, for example, at the three corporate results just prior to this interview, Champion Iron ((CIA)) and Rio Tinto ((RIO)), two commodities companies, two iron ore producers, two disappointments.

Both share prices went down. Both share prices have not performed over the year past.

We also had ResMed ((RMD)) reaching an all-time high, and it comes out with a result better than expected. Share price up.

I think there's a lesson here for investors. Don't say too early to companies that have performed that this is the end of the road, and don't think too easily that those who are lagging that their time has come to perform now.

August might just be too early for that.


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Australian investors stay informed with FNArena – your trusted source for Australian financial news. We deliver expert analysis, daily updates on the ASX and commodity markets, and deep insights into companies on the ASX200 and ASX300, and beyond. Whether you're seeking a reliable financial newsletter or comprehensive finance news and detailed insights, FNArena offers unmatched coverage of the stock market news that matters. As a leading financial online newspaper, we help you stay ahead in the fast-moving world of Australian finance news.

Rudi’s View: AI Updates, Hot Favourites & First August Results

rudi-views
Always an independent thinker, Rudi has not shied away from making big out-of-consensus predictions that proved accurate later on. When Rio Tinto shares surged above $120 he wrote investors should sell. In mid-2008 he warned investors not to hold on to equities in oil producers. In August 2008 he predicted the largest sell-off in commodities stocks was about to follow. In 2009 he suggested Australian banks were an excellent buy. Between 2011 and 2015 Rudi consistently maintained investors were better off avoiding exposure to commodities and to commodities stocks. Post GFC, he dedicated his research to finding All-Weather Performers. See also "All-Weather Performers" on this website, as well as the Special Reports section.

Rudi's View | Aug 07 2025

In today's edition:

-August Updates Are A-Comin'
-The Era Of Polarisation
-Morgan Stanley's Hot Favourites For August
-Attention Returns To AI Infrastructure
-FNArena Talks
-Review All-Weather Model Portfolio
-Best Buys & Conviction Calls

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

August Updates Are A-Comin'

The Australian corporate results season has officially started but, as per unofficial tradition, the pace of corporate releases remains rather glacial this early in the month.

By week's end FNArena's Corporate Results Monitor will only list some 18 companies, not more than a drop in the ocean given that number will be around 385 or so by early September, but that's just how this cookie crumbles in Australia nowadays.

Are there any conclusions that could possibly be drawn this early?

Nah. But we do note the REITs have been a positive contributor thus far, as anticipated by analysts covering the sector.

Plus all of ResMed ((RMD)), News Corp ((NWS)) and Credit Corp ((CCP)) managed to outperform forecasts while updates from REA Group ((REA)), AMP Ltd ((AMP)) and Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI)) contained enough good news to keep the share price well-supported.

One might say the season has begun on a relative positive note, but let's not get overly excited just yet. There's literally a deluge in releases awaiting us over the coming three weeks (plus a bit).

By this time next week, the numbers will be a lot larger, but the bulk is reserved for the final two weeks of the month.

FNArena is keeping a close watch daily: https://fnarena.com/index.php/reporting_season/

The Era Of Polarisation

A timely reminder entered the inbox this week: it's not just share markets that are heavily polarised nowadays, the same observation applies to the economies underneath.

Economists at Oxford Economics shared the following observations about the US economy:

"The economy has slowed and is growing below its short-run potential, but this hasn’t altered the bifurcated nature of the consumer, business environment, and labor market. This leaves the economy more vulnerable and masks some of the fissures beneath the aggregate economic data.

"High-income consumers are doing well while lower-income households are struggling. Trade and fiscal policy will reinforce the bifurcated consumer. The net impact of tariffs and fiscal policy will reduce the lowest-income quintiles' real disposable income by 2.5%-3% while boosting the highest incomes by the same amount.

"As large businesses can weather tariffs better, they outperform small ones, reinforcing recent labor market weakness. Employment among small businesses, the backbone of the labor market, has barely budged and fundamentals remain unfavorable.

"It’s also a tale of two labor markets. It’s a good labor market for those with a job, but a challenging one for those who are unemployed or not in the labor force but want a job. The bifurcated labor market can change quickly if layoffs increase, a significant risk to the forecasts."


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Australian investors stay informed with FNArena – your trusted source for Australian financial news. We deliver expert analysis, daily updates on the ASX and commodity markets, and deep insights into companies on the ASX200 and ASX300, and beyond. Whether you're seeking a reliable financial newsletter or comprehensive finance news and detailed insights, FNArena offers unmatched coverage of the stock market news that matters. As a leading financial online newspaper, we help you stay ahead in the fast-moving world of Australian finance news.

article 3 months old

Rudi’s View: Extreme Bifurcation Ahead Of August

In this week's Weekly Insights:

-Ask FNArena
-Extreme Bifurcation Ahead Of August

-For Financial Advisors Ready to Make an Impact

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

Ask FNArena

Tuesday, the 29th of July at 4.30pm.

Put it in your agenda to participate in FNArena's online Zoom meeting, featuring your Editor ready to answer your questions.

We welcome questions in advance though there will be opportunity to ask on the day and during the session, of course.

Keep an eye out for follow ups in Weekly Insights and Rudi's View stories.

Yes, there will be a video recording to view and listen afterwards.

Send your questions to Editor@fnarena.com

Extreme Bifurcation Ahead Of August

There was a time when 13.80% total return for the financial year would be welcomed by all and sundry as a pleasant outcome, but not so in mid-2025 when the strong rally in CommBank ((CBA)) shares has been responsible for 38% of those returns.

Prospects for CommBank and the broader bank sector in general have improved throughout the year, but only slightly so. As the share price rallied and kept on rising (up 22% in the June quarter alone) pushing the implied forward-looking dividend yield to a paltry 2.8%, many domestic shareholders have been selling their exposure.

The rise and rise of CommBank relative to the rest of the ASX200 (now weighing 12% of the index) has triggered lively debates among Australian investors, and still does.

Some investors have sold exposure and recycled the proceeds into other, cheaper-priced  major bank shares, but UBS for one doesn't think this will prove the best protection against CBA's coming back to earth - something that surely must happen at some point?

Whatever will pull back the CommBank share price is likely going to be a sector-wide impact, UBS suggested a few weeks ago. Meaning: it'll impact the rest of the sector too, in all likelihood.

Indeed, share prices in financials broadly, and in banks specifically, have performed well in FY25 with three major banks ending up in the Top Five of highest contributions for the index since mid last year.

CommBank shares simply outclassed everyone and everything with a total return of... wait for it... 49.8%, adding more than three times more to index gains than number two, Westpac ((WBC)).

As to whom is responsible, the second half of last year featured steady buying orders from superannuation funds while in 2025 large US institutions seeking shelter from potential US tariff impacts have compensated for local sellers.

For more background, investors might revisit some of FNArena's recent background stories and explanations:

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/07/18/in-brief-sks-technologies-banks-qpm-energy/

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/06/10/geopolitical-hedging-a-boon-for-commbank/

The Local FY25 Top Ten

It is likely more of Australia's large cap bluechips with similar tariff agnostic characteristic might have enjoyed some of the unexpected international fund inflows as well.

The Top Ten of highest index contributors for the twelve months to June 30th is as follows:

1. CommBank
2. Westpac
3. Wesfarmers ((WES))
4. Telstra ((TLS))
5. National Australia Bank ((NAB))
6. Brambles ((BXB))
7. Macquarie Group ((MQG))
8. QBE Insurance ((QBE))
9. Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
10. Evolution Mining ((EVN))

Combined, these ten stocks represent 76.6% of all index returns in FY25.

Equally noteworthy: gold miner Evolution Mining shares needed to rally by 127.7% to make it into the Top Ten, just.

That list, and its importance for the local market, serves as a timely reminder for just how polarised the share market has been, and still is.

While large caps such as BHP Group ((BHP)), CSL ((CSL)) and Woodside Energy ((WDS)) have been prominent laggards throughout the year past, the market segment that has mostly disappointed investors is without any doubt the legion of small cap companies.

The (Ongoing) Small Cap Challenge

This market polarisation in favour of larger cap companies is not new and neither has it been ASX-specific.

A recent US markets update by Jason Zweig at the Wall Street Journal revealed the larger-cap S&P500 has returned on average 13.2% since 2014 while the Russell2000 index of smaller cap companies has lagged severely with an annual return of 7.2% only.

That is one mighty gap between the two opposing ends of the market in terms of company size.

For good measure: in Australia, the technology sector has mimicked its offshore peers by outperforming all other sectors locally, but despite large cap representatives such as Block ((XYZ)), Pro Medicus ((PME)), REA Group ((REA)), WiseTech Global ((WTC)) and Xero ((XRO)) its index relevance remains quite benign still.

Equally worth highlighting is that Australia's sweet spot --the MidCap50-- remains the best performing segment, including a total return of 16.45% in FY25.

Most of the pain/disappointment locally mimicks the US with the Small Ordinaries returning 12.26% in FY25, an annualised 10% for the past three years, on average 7.37% over five years and only 7.64% on average in total return for the decade past.

Australia being one of the world's commodities centres, some of the small cap underperformance is likely related to the many explorers and developers in mining and energy, but that can only be a partial explanation, at best.

Also worth noting: the relative gap between banks and resources in Australia has blown out to a multi-year high (market weight of 35.2% versus 19.5%).

A deeper dive below the surface of today's share prices and index level, into FNArena's proprietary market data, confirms just how polarised the Australian share market is; possibly a lot more than most investors, including myself, realise.

Comparing share prices with price targets set by stockbroking analysts is far from a perfect guide --both can change instantly and dramatically-- but for the general purpose of assessing today's status for the ASX and painting a general picture, it can enlighten and explain a lot that otherwise remains hidden underneath biased opinions and outdated perceptions.

FNArena's forward-looking data universe currently includes 531 ASX-listed companies, of which only 102 share prices are trading above their consensus target.  This number will be smaller post Monday's general off day.

Ahead of results releases in August, we should be keeping in mind that forecasts will be updated in the weeks ahead, with potential positive impact on valuations and price targets.

If we raise the bar to share prices trading at least 5% above target, that number of elevated looking share prices shrinks to 70.

This is still a sufficiently large selection for investors to pay attention to, and it includes all the usual suspects, including the Top Ten mentioned, as well as Netwealth Group ((NWL)), Megaport ((MP1)), Eagers Automotive ((APE)), Harvey Norman ((HVN)), Origin Energy ((ORG)), and Charter Hall ((CHC)).

Of course, there are also plenty of small and micro cap stocks in this group, including Opthea ((OPT)), Arafura Rare Earths ((ARU)), Alcidion Group ((ALC)), HighCom ((HCL)), and Doctor Care Anywhere ((DOC)). I'm specifically not mentioning those under merger or take-over interest.

Not all of these elevated-looking share prices are doomed for immediate disaster, of course, but 531 stocks minus 102 still leaves us with nearly 80% (429 companies) that cannot be accused of trading on fumes and over-inflated market momentum, not until that implied profit disappointment comes out or analysts downgrade their target (usually in response to operational disappointment).

Obvious question: with such a heavily lopsided market set-up, is it still justified to worry about the index trading on a higher-than-usual valuation?

History suggests the answer is 'yes' as lower valued shares might not necessarily hold their ground if/when the popular winners sell off, but it does suggest there's potential for outsized investment returns if positive earnings and/or market momentum spreads out to larger parts of the local bourse.

For good measure, sustained market momentum for ASX-listed companies splintered into polarised extremes during the global covid pandemic and has to date never recovered from it.

Calls for a decisive catch-up by smaller cap companies to their outperforming larger peers have been made ever so regularly over the past three-four years, both internationally and in Australia, but here we are mid-year 2025 and smaller cap underperformance and market polarisation remain as prominent as ever.

Maybe not getting carried away with too high expectations simply because share prices look under-priced and have lagged sustained market momentum to date might be the best approach at this stage?

The August results season is still expected to see the average earnings per share for the ASX200 retreat for a third successive year, to end up -18% below the peak of FY22.

This suggests there remains plenty of room for disappointments next month, even though forecasts are signalling better times might be ahead and some forecasters believe corporate Australia might --finally-- enjoy an upgrade cycle throughout FY26/FY27.

One can but wonder if that is the prerequisite requirement to see momentum for the Australian share market broaden out significantly in the months/years upcoming.

Should we all send Christmas cards to Michele Bullock at the RBA and to federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers?

(Don't think Trump cares much about what happens in Australia).

Digging Into The 80%

Below are some selective snippets from the 80% of share prices for whom trading at or above broker price targets has remained a bridge too far (a starting point for further research and assessment, maybe?).

In the category of absolute bottom-of-the-barrel, smashed-to-smithereens, seemingly crazily undervalued disappointments, we find the likes of:

-Hastings Technology Metals ((HAS))
-Bowen Coking Coal ((BCB))
-Australian Vanadium ((AVL))
-Cettire ((CTT))
-Playside Studios ((PLY))
-Step One Clothing ((STP))

Stocks trading with suggested upside potential between 50%-100%:

-Mitchell Services ((MSV))
-Macquarie Technology ((MAQ))
-DigiCo Infrastructure REIT ((DGT))
-Vault Minerals ((VAU))
-Bannerman Energy ((BMN))
-Viva Leisure ((VVA))
-PolyNovo ((PNV))
-Cosol ((COS))
-Austin Engineering ((ANG))
-Avita Medical ((AVH))

Stocks trading with suggested upside potential between 30%-50%:

-Regal Partners ((RPL))
-Elders ((ELD))
-Macmahon Holdings ((MAH))
-Worley ((WOR))
-Guzman y Gomez ((GYG))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))
-Southern Cross Electrical Engineering ((SXE))
-Lindsay Australia ((LAU))
-NextDC ((NXT))
-Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX))

Stocks trading with suggested upside potential between 10%-30%:

-Car Group ((CAR))
-Virgin Australia ((VGN))
-BlueScope Steel ((BSL))
-Collins Foods ((CKF))
-Paladin Energy ((PDN))
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))
-Seek ((SEK))
-AGL Energy ((AGL))
-Flight Centre ((FLT))
-GQG Partners ((GQG))

Stocks trading at less than -10% from their target:

-Woodside Energy ((WDS))
-Challenger ((CGF))
-Waypoint REIT ((WPR))
-Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI))
-Iluka Resources ((ILU))
-Orica ((ORI))
-Woolworths Group ((WOW))
-EVT Ltd ((EVT))
-NRW Holdings ((NWH))
-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))

More than two decades of experience suggests this kind of information should not be interpreted in a static, set-in-stone manner.

A positive surprise in August can significantly widen upside potential, just as a negative development can work its magic to the downside.

A hefty discount might be the market telling us the risk level is too high and probably skewed to the downside, just as a big premium might signal upgrades are coming.

Post-Covid Is Different

The extreme polarisation in market momentum is equally reflected in stockbroker ratings for individual stocks.

Historically, a share market near an all-time high corresponds with more Neutral/Hold ratings and less Buys, but not in the post-covid era as clearly shown in the graphic below.

(The blue line represents the total Buy ratings).

B-H-S 2006-July 2025 832

Trading on a forward-multiple of 18.9x forecast earnings, the ASX200 is trading more than two standard deviations from its historical average of 14.7x.

Even if we limit today's comparison to the past ten years (accepting that share price averages are higher in more recent times than they have been throughout the preceding decades) the current situation still compares unfavourably with an average multiple of 16.1x.

Possible explanations/justifications include better growth momentum ahead, also on the back of more rate cuts from the RBA, ongoing strong growth momentum for the AI megatrend, and a general broadening of AI benefits to broader sections of the economy (higher margins, more efficiency).

Many of these assumptions will be put to the test in August. Consensus forecasts are currently indicating EPS growth of circa 5% for the year ahead (FY26), followed by another near 8% in FY27.

Investors will be keeping their fingers crossed that outlook will not deteriorate in the same manner as it has done throughout all three years post FY22.

FNArena publishes a monthly update to the Australian Super Stock Report, which facilitates assessments such as the ones mentioned in today's story. This report is included in paying subscriptions (6 and 12 months) and can be downloaded from the website.

As per tradition, FNArena will keep a close tab on corporate results in August.

For the coming two weeks or so, FNArena's Results Monitor will still display its overview of results released post February: https://fnarena.com/index.php/reporting_season/

Next week's edition of Weekly Insights shall dig deeper into expectations and forecasts ahead of August results for sectors and individual companies.

For Financial Advisors Ready to Make an Impact

New Advisor Add-On: Built for Speed & Simplicity

Over the past year, we collaborated with a select group of financial advisors to co-create a smart new tool that makes navigating FNArenas insights faster and more intuitive.

Its already streamlining workflow and could be a perfect fit for your practice.

Contribute Your Perspective: Become an FNArena Contributor

We also welcome financial advisors who enjoy writing or commentary to share their knowledge with our growing audience of self-managed investors.

Whether it's a market view, a professional story, or insight from the front lines if youve got something to say, well help amplify it.

Email us at Editor@FNArena.com

Model Portfolios, Best Buys & Conviction Calls

This section appears from now on every Thursday morning in a separate update on the website. See Rudi's Views for the archive going back to 2006 (not a typo).

FNArena Subscription

A subscription to FNArena (6 or 12 months) comes with an archive of Special Reports (21 since 2006); examples below.

Dividend Investing, The Smart Way 250(1)Cover Investing in GenAi - medium sized

(This story was written on Monday, 21st July 2025. It was published on the day in the form of an email to paying subscribers, and again on Wednesday as a story on the website).

(Do note that, in line with all my analyses, appearances and presentations, all of the above names and calculations are provided for educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views are mine and not by association FNArena's see disclaimer on the website.

In addition, since FNArena runs a Model Portfolio based upon my research on All-Weather Performers it is more than likely that stocks mentioned are included in this Model Portfolio. For all questions about this: contact us via the direct messaging system on the website).

Australian investors stay informed with FNArena – your trusted source for Australian financial news. We deliver expert analysis, daily updates on the ASX and commodity markets, and deep insights into companies on the ASX200 and ASX300, and beyond. Whether you're seeking a reliable financial newsletter or comprehensive finance news and detailed insights, FNArena offers unmatched coverage of the stock market news that matters. As a leading financial online newspaper, we help you stay ahead in the fast-moving world of Australian finance news.

article 3 months old

Rudi’s View: Aussie Broadband, oOh!media, Paladin Energy, Seek, Xero & More

Update on changes to and revisions of analysts’ Best Ideas and Conviction Calls, as well as Model Portfolio compositions.

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

We was wrong.

It's the kind of phrase protagonists say in American movies and that makes viewers like myself squirm, but then again, apparently 'dove' instead of 'dived' is also permitted in the land of Kaiser Donald J.

Macquarie's latest strategy update on Australian equities, released earlier today on Thursday morning wouldn't use American colloquialisms, of course, but the strategists might have just as well, because that is the key over-riding message expressed to their clientele.

Up until today, Macquarie strategists have been warning about too much exuberance in equities, advocating a cautious and defensive portfolio set-up while expecting this year's runaway stock market train to come unstuck.

But it hasn't happened.

Today's mea culpa suggests the focus has been too much on PE expansion and the RBA holding out on rate cuts. Outside of Australia, central banks have been cutting rates at a pace nearly never witnessed outside of economic recession, and it is translating into growth resilience and momentum picking up.

Add a just as rare technology boom and this year's cocktail suggests the world is trending towards a better place, not one-way into malaise and struggles.

Better times ahead means the Model Portfolio was too defensively positioned. Macquarie strategists have responded by adding more exposure to Technology and AI, and less to bond proxies (bond yields might not weaken as much as earlier thought).

The following stocks have been added to the Model Portfolio:

-NextDC ((NXT))
-Seek ((SEK))
-Paladin Energy ((PDN))

These additions compliment the likes of Xero ((XRO)), Megaport ((MP1)) and Goodman Group ((GMG)).

For more cyclical exposure, the Portfolio now also owns Lovisa Holdings ((LOV)) and Web Travel Group ((WEB)). Also added has been Challenger ((CGF)) on anticipation of a more limited fall in bond yields.

Exposures that have been reduced: Transurban ((TCL)), GPT Group ((G:PT)) and James Hardie ((JHX)).

On the strategists' own assessment, if their revised outlook proves correct, Australian companies should see earnings upgrades in FY26.

That will be the logical litmus test, both for Macquarie's about-face and for current elevated PE ratios.

Global equity strategists at UBS remain on the lookout for downgrades to current growth forecasts, and for decelerating economic indicators while the Federal Reserve will only be ready to deliver its next rate cut in September.

UBS thus suggests equity markets might find the going a little more challenging, with the extra comment that any pullback larger than -5% would come as a surprise.

Weakness should still be treated as an opportunity to buy more shares, in UBS's view (being relatively relaxed about potential impacts from tariffs).

Investors have rightly learned to buy the dip, say the strategists, with US corporate profits still expected to grow (albeit more slowly), the AI theme still booming and USD weakness supporting nearly 25% of S&P500 revenues that are generated internationally.

****

Staying with Macquarie, the small caps desk has released its favourites ahead of the August results season. The list of Best Picks consists of:

-Aussie Broadband ((ABB))
-Amotiv ((AOV))
-AUB Group ((AUB))
-Alpha HPA ((A4N))
-Bega Cheese ((BGA))
-Capstone Copper ((CSC))
-Codan ((CDA))
-Genesis Minerals ((GMD))
-Iluka Resources ((ILU))
-Integral Diagnostics ((IDX))
-Harvey Norman ((HVN))
-Jumbo Interactive ((JIN))
-Lovisa Holdings ((LOV))
-Maas Group ((MGH))
-Megaport (( MP1))
-Monadelphous ((MND))
-Neuren ((NEU))
-Nick Scali ((NCK))
-oOh!media ((OML))
-Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI))
-Qualitas ((QAL))
-Reliance Worldwide ((RWC))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))
-Summit Minerals ((SUM))
-Universal Store Holdings ((UNI))
-Ventia Services ((VNT))
-Web Travel Group ((WEB))

Let me share one personal pleasure: every time I write up these lists, I challenge myself to add full company names, correct spelling and all, to each ASX code to check how up to date my knowledge remains.

Today I am slightly disappointed. I failed on five codes, including for Maas Group! Must have had a temporary blackout.

****

One extra update from Macquarie on Thursday morning: the healthcare desk expressed their favouritism for CSL ((CSL)), ResMed ((RMD)), Integral Diagnostics ((IDX)) and Neuren ((NEU)).

Least preferred are Cochlear ((COH)) and Ansell ((ANN)).

****

Bell Potter's general update on ASX-listed agricultural stocks shows the following Buy-rated preferences:

-Australian Agricultural Company ((AAC))
-Bega Cheese ((BGA))
-Elders ((ELD))
-Noumi Ltd ((NOU))
-Nufarm ((NUF))
-Rural Funds ((RFF))
-Select Harvests ((SHV))

****

Stockbroker Morgans, previewing August results, has High Conviction for positive performances from the following resources companies:

-BHP Group ((BHP))
-Woodside Energy ((WDS))
-Amplitude Energy ((AEL))
-Karoon Gas ((KAR))

Sticking with Morgans, the broker's favourites in the local Technology sector are WiseTech Global ((WTC)) and Megaport ((MP1)), with Car Group ((CAR)) and Seek ((SEK)) the favourites in Media, Superloop ((SLC)) in Telecom and Light & Wonder ((LNW)) among gaming stocks.

Morgans has also Buy ratings for Xero ((XRO)) and NextDC ((NXT)).

For exposure to non-bank financials, the broker's favourites are Generation Development ((GDG)), MA Financial ((MAF)), and Tyro Payments ((TYR)).

****

Analysts at Morgan Stanley like to identify High-Conviction opportunities both ahead and after reporting seasons.

This time three ideas have been identified throughout the Asian coverage. One of these is ASX-listed: Xero ((XRO)).

****

Jarden's monthly update on Australia's small caps ("emerging companies") highlights 18 Best Ideas, including the following Key Picks considered offering the highest potential return, in order of projected total investment reward:

-GQG Partners ((GQG))
-Dicker Data ((DDR))
-Universal Store Holdings ((UNI))
-Qualitas ((QAL))
-EVT Ltd ((EVT))
-Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI))
-Temple & Webster ((TPW))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))

The other ten stocks selected:

-Aussie Broadband ((ABB))
-Arena REIT ((ARF))
-Genesis Energy ((GNE))
-Harvey Norman ((HVN))
-Integral Diagnostics ((IDX))
-Karoon Energy ((KAR))
-Michael Hill ((MHJ))
-Pepper Money ((PPM))
-Symal Group ((SYL))
-Vault Minerals ((VAU))

Since the prior update in early June, no stocks were removed. Both Aussie Broadband and Pinnacle Investment Management are new inclusions.

****

Analysts at Moelis remain positive on ASX-listed gold companies with Buy ratings reserved for:

-Vault Minerals ((VAU))
-Alkane Resources ((ALK))
-Ora Banda Mining ((OBM))
-Pantoro Gold ((PNR))

Over at Stockbroker Morgans the preference lays with Northern Star ((NST)) and Newmont Corp ((NEM)) among larger caps, with Regis Resources ((RRL)) preferred among mid-cap options.

Analysts at Ord Minnett favour Newmont Corp and Vault Minerals.

Other ideas in a largely 'cheap' looking resources sector, according to Ord Minnett, include Capstone Copper, Rio Tinto ((RIO)), Paladin Energy ((PDN)) and Lotus Resources ((LOT)), and Whitehaven Coal ((WHC)) as the quality play among coal producers.

****

Goldman Sachs' selection of local Conviction Buys is now reduced to three:

-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Worley ((WOR))

Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield ((URW)) is also included for its Paris listing with the local listing about to disappear.

Best Buys & Conviction Calls

Bell Potter's sector preferences for the financial year ahead.

Listed Investment Companies ((LICs)
-Australian Foundation Investment Company ((AFI))
-Metrics Master Income Trust ((MXT))
-MFF Capital Investments ((MFF))

Agricultural & Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG)
-Bega Cheese ((BGA))
-Rural Funds Group ((RFF))
-Elders ((ELD))

Technology
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))
-Gentrack ((GTK))
-Seek ((SEK))

Diversified Financials
-Cuscal ((CCL))
-Praemium ((PPS))
-Regal Partners ((RPL))

Real Estate
-Aspen Group ((APZ))
-Cedar Woods ((CWP))
-Region Group ((RGN))

Retail
-JB Hi-Fi ((JBH))
-Universal Store Holdings ((UNI))
-Propel Funeral Partners ((PFP))

Industrials
-LGI Ltd ((LGI))
-Environmental Group ((EGL))

Healthcare
-Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX))
-Neuren Pharmaceuticals ((NEU))
-Monash IVF ((MVF))

Gold
-Minerals 260 ((MI6))
-Santana Minerals ((SMI))
-Evolution Mining ((EVN))

Base Metals
-Aeris Resources ((AIS))
-Nickel Industries ((NIC))
-AIC Mines ((A1M))

Strategic Minerals & Processing Technologies
-Alpha HPA ((A4N))
-IperionX ((IPX))

Energy
-Boss Energy ((BOE))

Mining & Industrial Services
-Develop Global ((DVP))
-ALS Ltd ((ALQ))
-Duratec ((DUR))

****

favourites inside the local small cap retail space (in order of preference) as selected by Retail sector analysts at Citi:

-Universal Store Holdings ((UNI))
-Baby Bunting ((BBY))
-Nick Scali ((NCK))
-Temple & Webster ((TPW))
-Beacon Lighting ((BLX))
-Harvey Norman ((HVN))
-Accent Group ((AX1))
-Super Retail ((SUL))
-Premier Investments ((PMV))
-Bapcor ((BAP))
-Lovisa Holdings ((LOV))

****

Crestone's Best Sector Ideas:

-Ampol ((ALD))
-APA Group ((APA))
-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-Beach Energy ((BPT))
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Cochlear ((COH))
-CSL ((CSL))
-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-IGO Ltd ((IGO))
-James Hardie Industries ((JHX))
-Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Metcash ((MTS))
-Monadelphous Group ((MND))
-REA Group ((REA))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Xero ((XRO))

Crestone's selection for sustainable income:

-Amcor ((AMC))
-Ampol ((ALD))
-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-APA Group ((APA))
-Atlas Arteria ((ALX))
-Beach Energy ((BPT))
-BHP Group ((BHP))
-Car Group ((CAR))
-Coles Group ((COL))
-Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure ((DBI))
-Iress ((IRE))
-Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Metcash ((MTS))
-Mirvac Group ((MGR))
-Pro Medicus ((PME))
-QBE Insurance ((QBE))
-RAM Essential Services ((REP))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Tabcorp Holdings ((TAH))
-Telstra Group ((TLS))

****

Morgans' selection of Best Ideas consists of the following 29 ASX-listed companies:

Acrow ((ACF))
ALS Ltd ((ALQ))
Amotiv ((AOV))
BHP Group ((BHP))
Collins Foods ((CKF))
Corporate Travel Management ((CTD))
CSL ((CSL))
Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure ((DBI))
Dexus Convenience Retail REIT ((DXC))
DigiCo Infrastructure REIT ((DGT))
EBR Systems ((EBR))
Elders ((ELD))
Goodman Group ((GMG))
Guzman y Gomez ((GYG))
James Hardie Industries ((JHX))
Light & Wonder ((LNW))
Lovisa Holdings ((LOV))
MA Financial Group ((MAF))
Megaport ((MP1))
Orica ((ORI))
Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI))
ResMed ((RMD))
South32 ((S32))
Treasury Wine Estates ((TWE))
Qualitas ((QAL))
Universal Store Holdings ((UNI))
Whitehaven Coal ((WHC))
WiseTech Global ((WTC))
Woodside Energy ((WDS))

****

Morgan Stanley's six Conviction stock picks that each represent a compelling individual investment case underpinned by idiosyncratic drivers and the ability to deliver earnings upside, believed to be underappreciated by the market.

-WiseTech Global ((WTC))
-Charter Hall Group ((CHC))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Life360 Inc ((360))
-Generation Development Group ((GDG))
-Data#3 ((DTL))

Morgan Stanley's Macro+ Focus List in Australia is currently made up of:

-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-Car Group ((CAR))
-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-GPT Group ((GPT))
-James Hardie Industries ((JHX))
-Orica ((ORI))
-Santos ((STO))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Xero ((XRO))

Morgan Stanley's Australia Macro+ Model Portfolio is currently made up of the following:

-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-CommBank ((CBA))
-National Australia Bank ((NAB))
-Westpac ((WBC))

-Macquarie Group ((MQG))

-Suncorp Group ((SUN))

-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-GPT Group ((GPT))
-Scentre Group ((SCG))
-Stockland ((STG))

-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-Eagers Automotive ((APE))
-CAR Group ((CAR))
-Domino's Pizza ((DMP))
-The Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Wesfarmers ((WES))
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))
-Xero ((XRO))

-James Hardie ((JHX))

-Amcor ((AMC))
-Cleanaway Waste Management ((CWY))
-Orica ((ORI))

-Coles Group ((COL))

-CSL ((CSL))
-ResMed ((RMD))

-AGL Energy ((AGL))
-Telstra ((TLS))
-Transurban ((TCL))

-BHP Group ((BHP))
-Newmont Corp ((NEM))
-Rio Tinto ((RIO))
-South32 ((S32))

-Santos ((STO))
-Woodside Energy ((WDS))

****

Morningstar's Equity Best Ideas (Conviction Buy Calls by any other name, mostly chosen because of under-valuation).

-Auckland International Airport ((AIA))
-ASX Ltd ((ASX))
-Aurizon Holdings ((AZJ))
-Bapcor ((BAP))
-Dexus ((DXS))
-Domino's Pizza Enterprises ((DMP))
-Endeavour Group ((EDV))
-Fineos Corp ((FCL))
-IDP Education ((IEL))
-IGO Ltd ((IGO))
-Ramsay Health Care ((RHC))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))
-Spark New Zealand ((SPK))
-Woodside Energy ((WDS))

****

Ord Minnett's High Conviction calls (all nominations made by sector analysts on a 12 month horizon):

-Aussie Broadband ((ABB))
-Brazilian Rare Earths ((BRE))
-Bubs Australia ((BUB))
-Cuscal ((CCL))
-Qoria ((QOR))
-Regis Healthcare ((REG))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))
-Vault Minerals ((VAU))
-Waypoint REIT ((WPR))
-Zip Co ((ZIP))

****

Shaw and Partners' Large Caps Model Portfolio:

-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-BlueScope Steel ((BSL))
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Dexus ((DXS))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Newmont Corp ((NEM))
-South32 ((S32))

Shaw and Partners' emerging companies Top Picks:

-AML3D ((AL3))
-Australian Vanadium ((AVL))
-Bannerman Energy ((BMN))
-Chrysos ((C79))
-Humm Group ((HUM))
-Metro Mining ((MMI))
-Santana Minerals ((SMI))
-Southern Cross Electrical ((SXE))

****

UBS's Most Preferred Stocks in Australia

In Resources segment:
-BHP Group ((BHP))
-BlueScope Steel ((BSL))
-Newmont Corp ((NEM))
-Orica ((ORI))
-Origin Energy ((ORG))

Among Financials & A-REITs:
-Dexus ((DXS))
-Lifestyle Communities ((LIC))
-Mirvac Group ((MGR))
-Medibank Private ((MPL))
-QBE Insurance ((QBE))
-Steadfast Group ((SDF))

Among Industrials:
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Collins Foods ((CKF))
-Cochlear ((COH))
-Coles Group ((COL))
-NextDC ((NXT))
-REA Group ((REA))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-SGH Ltd ((SGH))
-TechnologyOne ((TNE))
-Telstra Corp ((TLS))
-Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX))
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))

UBS's Least Preferred Stocks in Australia

-Aurizon Holdings ((AZJ))
-ASX Ltd ((ASX))
-Bank of Queensland ((BOQ))
-CommBank ((CBA))
-Charter Hall Group ((CHC))
-Computershare ((CPU))
-Evolution Mining ((EVN))
-Temple & Webster ((TPW))

****

Wilsons' Key Investment Opportunities:

-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))
-Woolworths ((WOW))

High conviction investment ideas:

-ARB Corp ((ARB))
-Maas Group ((MGH))
-Nanosonics ((NAN))
-Ridley Corp ((RIC))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))

Speculative idea:

-Clarity Pharmaceuticals ((CU6))

Wilsons' Focus Portfolio currently contains the following:

-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-BHP Group ((BHP))
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Car Group ((CAR))
-Collins Foods ((CKF))
-CSL ((CSL))
-Evolution Mining ((EVN))
-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT ((HCW))
-Hub24 ((HUB))
-James Hardie ((JHX))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Northern Star Resources ((NST))
-Pinnacle Investment Managers ((PNI))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Sandfire Resources ((SFR))
-Santos ((STO))
-South32 ((S32))
-TechnologyOne ((TNE))
-Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX))
-The Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Westpac Bank ((WBC))
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))
-Woolworths Group ((WOW))
-Worley ((WOR))
-Xero ((XRO))

Paying subscribers have 24/7 access to my curated lists, including All-Weather Performers at: https://fnarena.com/index.php/analysis-data/all-weather-stocks/

FNArena Talks

Interview for Philip Muscatello's Shares For Beginners about the ins and outs of All-Weathers and the portfolio over the decade past:

https://www.sharesforbeginners.com/blog/fnarena-all-weather

YouTube: https://youtu.be/m33cYbtJsDs?si=MQTAW8YgI2oNjKc4

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/43A2QQWyfGdHYgixBalJo7?si=dd99905f27554381

Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/all-weather-portfolio-rudi-filapek-vandyck-fnarena/id1451778025?i=1000715348354

Ask FNArena

With fiscal 2025 in the rear view and the August results season only weeks away, FNArena is preparing for an online live event, allowing subscribers and investors to ask questions about what to expect, individual companies, specific strategies, et cetera.

Yours truly will do his best to prepare and answer as many questions as possible. No date has been set as yet, but we're aiming for the final week of July.

Questions can be send in beforehand via Editor@fnarena.com. More details to follow.

(Do note that, in line with all my analyses, appearances and presentations, all of the above names and calculations are provided for educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions.)  

P.S. I - All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert for my Rudi's View stories. Go to My Alerts (top bar of the website) and tick the box in front of 'Rudi's View'. You will receive an email alert every time a new Rudi's View story has been published on the website. 

P.S. II - If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.

FNArena Subscription

A subscription to FNArena (6 or 12 months) comes with an archive of Special Reports (20 since 2006); examples below.

Not About The Banks 250Dividend Investing, The Smart Way 250Cover Investing in GenAi - medium sized

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.

FNArenais proud about its track record and past achievements: Ten Years On

Australian investors stay informed with FNArena – your trusted source for Australian financial news. We deliver expert analysis, daily updates on the ASX and commodity markets, and deep insights into companies on the ASX200 and ASX300, and beyond. Whether you're seeking a reliable financial newsletter or comprehensive finance news and detailed insights, FNArena offers unmatched coverage of the stock market news that matters. As a leading financial online newspaper, we help you stay ahead in the fast-moving world of Australian finance news.