FYI | Oct 11 2006
By Greg Peel
It was a big joke at the time of the airing of “Goodbye, Farewell and Amen” that the television series MASH had run for seven years while the Korean War only lasted three. The truth is, however, that while everyone decided to go home in 1953, the Korean War has actually never ended.
One of the reasons suggested for North Korea’s testing of a nuclear device this week was as a hurry up to the US to declare the war over and lift sanctions that have stood for 53 years. It is accepted that NK has had nuclear capability for some time now so letting off one little penny bunger (it still hasn’t been determined as to whether an explosion that small really was a nuclear device) is really not a precursor to World War III.
Not only is the Bush administration not likely to bow to NK’s demands, it expects to be able to tighten the screws on the pariah nation, not ease them.
North Korea is the last remaining bastion of a truly communist nation. Cuba is definitely still communist, but being so close to the US its people are afforded a view of what the world is like on the outside. That’s why they try to get the hell out of Cuba.
China has never declared itself to no longer be communist, but actions speak louder than words. China is, however, encumbered by a financial system rife with the remains of Communist Party corruption, and its stance on the likes of censorship, protest and its attitude towards Taiwan are signs that it is not yet pursuing western-style freedoms, merely wealth. And Tiananmen was not that long ago.
North Koreans are amongst the poorest people on earth, and are largely oblivious to the fact. (They realise they’re hungry, but don’t realise not everyone is). The average North Korean has no idea whatsoever of the outside world. Their “Dear Leader”, Kim il-Jong, is known for his cruelty and unpredictability. He also is believed to have a penchant for western pornography and made a cameo appearance in Parker & Stone’s “America, F*&k Yeah!”
During the Clinton administration, there were hints that NK might just start to temper its views, although there was still a lot of wrangling going on over the nuclear issue. But NK was a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and for the first time since the Korean War families were being allowed to reunite across the DMZ.
Then along came Bush and 9/11, and when Bush included NK in his so-called “axis of evil” along with Iran (which had previously been moving toward a more secular and equitable society) then all deals were off. NK abandoned any hints it might open up and went back to proving it could make bombs. It withdrew from the NPT in 2003.
While the nuclear test this week had world leaders and diplomats scurrying around and waving stern fingers (including Australia – that would have had Kimmy shaking in his Brogues) the financial markets carried on as nothing happened. Gold made a slight rally but couldn’t follow through.
If it had been Iran testing bombs it might have been a different matter. The markets would consider an Iranian bomb more likely to actually be used, given the fundamentalist alleged nutter who would press the button (and no offence intended to the many peace-loving Iranians). And while nuclear war in North-East Asia would be tragic and undoubtedly lead to global recession, a strike on Israel would set the whole Middle East alight, and that’s where the US relies on its oil supply.
But no one really expects NK to start any nuclear exchanges. It’s all just a lot of posturing intended as leverage in negotiations with the US. What it is meant to achieve is anyone’s guess, as Bush is likely now to come down hard on the rogue state just as soon as he can find it on the map. Russia has also voiced its protest and China – which Kim was probably expecting to be supportive – has followed suit. It doesn’t need to be stated just how Japan feels.
One wonders, as NK supposedly prepares a second nuclear test, what might have been if Bush had not included NK in his axis. Right at that point in time it wasn’t hurting anyone, and South Korea would dearly love to “end” the war and continue tentative moves to reunification. There are family members who one day found themselves on either side of a border, and haven’t seen each other since. South Korea had obviously seen a glimmer of hope in the fall of the Berlin Wall.
To that end, South Korea has been very careful in its condemnation of NK’s test. It is unlikely the US will do the same. Either way, the markets are going to think little of it unless for some strange reason an NK missile lands somewhere it wasn’t expected to.