FYI | Jan 08 2007
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck
The latest update on monthly trends by Barclays Capital’s team of quantitative analysts offers nothing but good news for investors in shares with Barclays reporting global stockmarkets do traditionally well at the onset of a new calendar year. All the markets that are included in the quant team’s analysis show positive median and average returns for the first month of the year.
In fixed income, European bond markets tend to have lower yields, with Bunds being the standout. Commodity markets have performed well over the past four years, but Barclays believes the positive CRB index masks a more polarised view. January has been a good month for aluminium and silver, but at the same time it tends to be the worst month of the year for natural gas and also a clear negative for copper.
Barclays believes WTI crude (spot) has the best odds of an advance and is currently on a four-year positive streak. Aluminium has traditionally its best performance in January.
In the FX markets the US dollar exhibits positive median and average returns against the majors, although last year saw the US dollar decline in the first weeks of the new calendar year. On the crosses, the Swiss franc has weak seasonal tendencies, with EUR/CHF offering the best odds for an advance (74%), reports Barclays.
The odds of the Aussie dollar advancing against the USD in January are calculated at 48% only.