FYI | Jan 22 2007
By Greg Peel
Speculation has been rife since the beginning of the final quarter for 2006 that the new year would herald another rate rise in Australia once the quarter’s details were revealed. Not much has changed – consensus still favours a February hike – but we have had a significant fall in the petrol price. This leads to the market tipping a modest 0.2% rise in headline inflation for 4Q, but consensus is for a core rise of 0.7% (no petrol or food) and that should be enough to force the RBA’s hand.
Today provides the first clue, with the producer price index released for the quarter followed by the consumer price index on Wednesday. Today also sees new car sales. NAB will release its quarterly business survey on Tuesday.
Across the ditch, cricket fans may be frustrated but home-owners will likely be pleased to know a rate hike is not expected on Thursday given last week’s surprisingly small CPI figure. Never underestimate the RBNZ, however.
It’s a quiet old week for Americans. The President will deliver his State of the Union address tomorrow night, which should be good for a giggle. Other than that, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index for January is released tomorrow night and December durable goods and new home sales come out on Friday night.
Elsewhere in the world it’s a bit of a CPI week, with Canada tomorrow night, us on Wednesday, Germany on Wednesday night and China on Thursday night. At the same time China will release its fourth quarter GDP, and December PPI, retail sales and industrial production. Fourth quarter GDP for the UK is released on Wednesday night.
On the local share front, the only excitement will be on Thursday when both BHP Billiton (BHP) and Newcrest (NCM) provide quarterly production reports.
Friday in Australia sees the markets shut down for the Australia Day holiday. A good day to watch the tennis.