FYI | Apr 23 2007
By Greg Peel
Economists are predicting around a 0.5-0.7% increase in the March quarter headline consumer price index (CPI) with a similar result in the core figure (now that bananas are cheap again and oil started the quarter cheaper). This is touch-and-go as far as RBA interpretations go, with, for example, ANZ suggesting that will be enough to trigger a rate rise and Commonwealth Research maintaining a 0.8% rise would be required.
What might be more telling, however, is the earlier producer price index (PPI) number upon which the RBA has focused recently. A solid increase is expected for that as well.
The PPI is out today, and the CPI Tuesday. Thursday sees the Westpac Leading Index of economic activity for February and the HIA new home sales figures for March. Not a busy week – just an important one.
Thursday brings a rates decision in New Zealand. Once again, economists are split on whether the RBNZ will hike again or not.
In the US we have April consumer confidence and March existing home sales on Tuesday, and March durable goods orders and new home sales on Wednesday. Wednesday also reveals the Fed “beige book” and Friday the first quarter GDP number, which is expected to slip from 2.5% to potentially below 2%. Friday also sees March quarter personal consumption.
In other highlights, Canada makes a rates decision on Tuesday, the UK releases first quarter GDP on Wednesday and Japan scores both March CPI and a rates decision on Friday.
The local bourse is set for a strong start to an interrupted week, with the Dow up 153 points on Friday night pushed by some solid earnings reports. Gold slammed through the tough US$690/oz level following a 2.5% jump in the oil price, and appears to be holding at US$691.30/oz. Copper, nickel and zinc all had strong nights as well, rising 1-2%. The SPI Overnight closed up 50.
On the stock front, Oil Search (OSH) reports quarterly production on Monday and Santos (STO) on Tuesday. Tuesday is also busy with March quarter results for Alinta (AAN), BHP Billiton (BHP), Lihir (LHG), Perseverance (PSV) and Macquarie Airports (MAP).
ANZ (ANZ) reports its interim result on Thursday, and quarterly results come in for Centennial Coal (CEY), Gloucester Coal (GCL) and Zinifex (ZFX). Macarthur Coal’s (MCC) quarterly is on Friday, as is Rinker’s (RIN) full year result.