FYI | Jul 29 2007
By Greg Peel
This week sees the Aussie result season begin in earnest. With the state of equity markets at present, a bit of good news would be nice, although what’s going on in the US and the world at present may change the face of expectations for the second half of 2007. Quarterly, interim or full year reporters this week include Lihir (LGL), Paladin (PDN), Alumina (AWC), Seven (SEV), Ten (TEN), Rio Tinto (RIO), West Aussie Newspapers (WAN), and Telstra (TLS) among others. The FNArena calendar provides all the details.
On the economic front, the RBA will be looking for some more monetary policy hints this week, following the shock of the core CPI last week. Tuesday kicks us off with June building approvals and private sector credit, and the NAB survey of business confidence for the June quarter (quite possibly redundant). Wednesday brings June retail sales and the AiG performance of manufacturing index for July, along with the June trade balance. The RBNZ recently lifted its interest rate to 8.25% on the back of persistently strong terms of trade. On Friday we learn the CBA/AiG performance of services index for July, and the Melbourne Institute inflation gauge for July.
It will all be happening, however, in the US. With volatility the winner on the day at present, a raft of economic data may really put the cat among the pigeons, and result in traders fighting over just how such data should be interpreted. It will go like this:
Monday: Nothing. Tuesday: June personal income, personal spending, core personal consumption expenditure (PCE), and construction spending, and July consumer confidence. Wednesday: June pending home sales and the July ISM manufacturing index. Thursday: June factory orders and July new vehicle sales. Friday: July non-farm payrolls, unemployment, average hourly earnings and the ISM non-manufacturing index.
Consumption, housing, manufacturing and employment. Any one of these releases could have a material effect on a very jumpy market.
Other releases to watch are the EU July CPI on Tuesday and the EU and UK rate decisions on Thursday. Investors in resources and metals will be keeping a close eye on the Chinese PMI release on Wednesday. All the talk about a pending growth slow down in the world’s manufacturing region requires another strong reading to support ongoing super-cycle enthusiasm.
Happy trading.