Oz Job Ads Still Close To Record

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By Greg Peel

The total number of jobs advertised in Australia in both print and internet media fell by 0.5% in July, following a 0.8% fall in June. Despite indicating a two month down-trend (which in turn would suggest unemployment should rise), the numbers need to be taken in the context of the 10.3% rise in ads in May, and the 32.9% increase the July figure represents over the July 2006 figure. In other words, at a July average of 248,590 new job ads a week, we are still talking close to record supply against dwindling demand.

The balance within the states was volatile, with WA falling 4.8% and Queensland 4.1%. These are the current generators of the economic boom. The offset came from Tasmania (astounding 14.9% increase) and Victoria (3.4%).

(It is notable that West Australian Newspapers’ (WAN) latest result showed an unexpected surge in real estate advertising revenue. It seems housing prices are topping out and employment is topping out as well in Australia’s leading economic growth state. Hmmm.)

Head of ANZ Economics, Tony Pearson, suggested that “the demand for labour continues to exhibit exceptional strength”. After July, however, there will be a marked adjustment in the unemployment rate (from 4.5% to 4.8% perhaps) as the Federal Government’s “Welfare to Work” scheme kicks in. This will see sole parent and disability welfare recipients being forced into finding a job. Until they do, they will be thus measured as unemployed but in the current jobs market it should not take long for this new workforce to be absorbed.

Hence ANZ Economics continues to see a downward trend in the unemployment rate. The economists are expecting a number with a 3 in front of it within the next twelve months. While the ANZ figures are not official RBA data, there is little doubt the RBA keeps a close watch on what has proven over the years to be an accurate leading indicator for the Australian labour force.

There is nothing in the ANZ data to suggest the RBA would change its mind on an interest hike, if that’s what it’s cooking up for Wednesday.

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