Australia | Sep 03 2007
By Greg Peel
ANZ’s monthly survey of job ads has shown a mere 0.1% increase in August to an average of 248,751 per week. Strong growth was recorded in the ACT and South Australia while the New South Wales and Northern Territory results were negative. Nationally, the total number of job ads published was 34.3% higher this August than last August.
“Total job advertisements remain at very high levels. This indicates that the demand for labour continues to be very strong,” ANZ Head of Australian Economics Tony Pearson says.
“Having said that, the monthly trend rate of increase in job advertisements is now easing from its recent highs. This has been associated with a similar easing in the monthly trend rate of increase in employment. The forward nature of the relationship between job advertisements and employment suggests that employment growth will continue to slow over coming months, although it will remain positive.”
Pearson does not expect a substantive easing in Australia’s tight labour market any time soon. He does, however, expect a short term rise in the unemployment rate ahead given a number of developments. The government’s Welfare-to-Work program has brought many Australians back into the job market recently. The outbreak of equine influenza is about to deliver a lot more. And the global credit crunch will also have an impact. However, Pearson expects the outlook for Australian economic growth will remain positive.
At this point we would normally be discussing the implications for interest rates and RBA policy, but that is now dominated by the effects of the global credit crunch in general and the short term actions of the Fed specifically.