FYI | Jun 01 2008
By Greg Peel
There’s quite a lot to consume this week.
We get the first taste in Australia on Monday with first quarter company profits, first quarter inventories, April retail sales, the AiG performance of manufacturing index for May and the May TD Securities-Melbourne Institute inflation gauge.
On Tuesday the RBA makes a rate decision, but despite a growing acceptance that Australia will suffer another rate hike, and in the ANZ’s opinion probably two, there is not expected to be one this month. It is most likely the RBA will wait for second quarter data – particularly the CPI – before making a change in August. But you never know. Tuesday also brings the first quarter current account and April building approvals.
On Wednesday it’s the first quarter GDP, and the AiG performance of services index for May, while Thursday wraps up with the April trade balance.
It’s also a big week for the US, which kicks off on Monday with the May ISM manufacturing index, followed by April factory orders and May auto sales on Tuesday. Wednesday sees first quarter productivity and first quarter labour costs and the ISM non-manufacturing (services) index for May.
Thursday is weekly jobless claim day ahead of the full round of employment numbers for May on Friday. Friday also brings April wholesale inventories and consumer credit.
All these data on both sides of the Pacific will provide a more detailed snapshot of the current state of both economies. On Thursday we also have rate decisions in both the UK and Europe. The ECB decision takes on even graver importance now that the oil price is squarely in focus. Were the ECB to cut from its long cemented 4% the US dollar would take off and oil would take a dive. However, the ECB also has every reason to hike, so once again it is unlikely to budge.
The New Zealand market is closed on Monday so they can all (yawn) celebrate another Crusaders title.
