FYI | Oct 23 2008
There will be no editorial this week as I had to draw the conclusion late yesterday I am not fully into the Sydney time zone just yet after spending three weeks in the Northern Hemisphere.
If everything goes according to plan next week should see the return of the Weekly Analysis and the Rudi On Thursday editorial. We’re also busy with the last preparations for the Trading & Investing Expo at the Sydney Exhibition Centre, Darling Harbour. Apart from taking part in an expert panel Greg and I will be presenting at our very own FNArena stand at the Expo.
FNArena will be launching a DVD “Dealing with the Bear” at the Expo this Friday and Saturday. You’ll all be hearing more about this initiative over the coming weeks and months, but here’s a short warming up exercise:
“Bear markets are frustrating, can be heartbreaking and can seem interminable. FNArena editor Rudi Filapek-Vandyck explains in this presentation why bear markets are a natural part of the cycle of life.
“Gain insight into what triggers a bear market, how to avoid the pitfalls of a bear market and how to recognise the signs that a bear market may be nearing its end. This refreshing and unbiased analysis is a must for any investor and a valuable reference for ever more.”
The content of this DVD consists of a presentation I gave to members of the Australian Investors Association (AIA) based on our own observations and analyses. Suffice to say this DVD offers everything you have come to expect from us: a little bit of humour, some original view points, but above all: lots and lots of information and insights that are worth remembering (and refreshing).
If you happen to be around on Friday or Saturday do take the opportunity to visit our stand and say hello. There will be “show only” subscription offers available. The Trading & Investing Expo is this Friday and Saturday only and we’ll be there both days.
I simply cannot finish without adding one last comment about the oil market. It was only a few months ago that the world lost all sense of reality and allowed itself to be drawn into a crazy oil delusion believing, for a short while, the only way was up, up, up for energy prices. FNArena has consistently warned that what was happening had little to do with reality and we have persisted in this view as oil futures surged to US$147 per barrel, and subsequently declined to below US$70 per barrel.
While the natural reflex would be to conclude that crude oil has now sufficiently corrected from its bubble highs, I would still question such a view. According to my current insights, and view, the former leader of the commodities bubble in the first half of 2008, crude oil, has turned into the laggard of the subsequent correction. If it wasn’t for the fact that crude oil intermittently can fall back on firm coordinated support by its major producers, OPEC, I believe its price would be on its way to somewhere in the US$40s per barrel.
The question remaining therefore is: even with OPEC support, how low will the price go?
With these thoughts I leave you this week.
Till next week!
Your editor,
Rudi Filapek-Vandyck
(As always firmly supported by Greg, Andrew, George, Chris, Grahame, Joyce, Todd and Pat).
