Australia | Jun 09 2009
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck
The ANZ Job Advertisements Series released today showed the total number of jobs advertised in major metropolitan newspapers and on the internet fell by 0.2% in May to a weekly average of 136,457 per week. The total number of advertisements in May was nearly half, or 49.1% lower than 12 months earlier. In trend terms, the total number of job advertisements fell by 5.6% in May to be 50.5% (more than half) lower than 12 months earlier.
ANZ economists note, while job advertising appears to have stabilised in recent months, the level of job ads nevertheless remains at recessionary levels, which is consistent with outright declines in the level of employment in Australia over the second half of 2009.
The number of job advertisements in major metropolitan newspapers decreased by 1% in May to an average of 8123 per week. This follows a 3.1% gain in April. Newspaper advertisements are now 52.5% (more than half) lower than in May 2008. In trend terms, the number of newspaper job advertisements
fell by 4.1% in May to be 55.6% lower than a year ago.
The economists explain the fall in newspaper job advertisements in May was driven by decreases in most states and territories. The largest falls in percentage terms were in Queensland (4.9%), the Northern Territory (4.5%) and New South Wales (1.5%). Western Australia (0.8%), Victoria (0.4%) and the ACT
(0.1%) also recorded declines. Tasmania (12.5%) and South Australia (7.8%) were the only two states to record increases
The number of internet job advertisements fell by 0.2% to average 128,334 per week and were 48.8% (nearly half) lower than 12 months earlier. In trend terms, internet job advertisements fell by 5.7% in May to be 50.1% (half) lower than in May 2008
ANZ economists remark job advertising has now fallen to about half the level it was at a year ago. This they say is consistent with outright declines in the
level of employment in Australia over the second half of 2009. The economists expect these falls in employment to start coming through in the official statistics at anytime.
ANZ is forecasting a 29K fall in employment with the release of the May Labour Force report due on Thursday.
ANZ expects unemployment to breach 6% in 2009 before eventually peaking at more than 8% in 2010.
Say the economists in respose to today’s release: In recent months we have seen the first evidence of a stabilisation in job advertising in Australia. An ongoing stabilisation of job ads followed by evidence of recovery will likely be one of the first signs that the worst is over in the broader Australian economy. At this stage there a no signs of a recovery in job advertising and, as such, the economists remain cautious about the outlook for the labour market and economic growth over the second half of 2009.