Australia | Aug 31 2009
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck
The TD Securities-Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge has remained unchanged in August, following a 0.9% rise in July and a 0.4% rise in June. In the twelve months to August, the Inflation Gauge has now risen by 1.7%.
The economists note the annual change in the monthly Inflation Gauge has now been below the bottom of the RBA target for four consecutive months.
Contributing most to the monthly Inflation Gauge in August were price falls for holiday, travel, and accommodation; audio, visual and computing, and financial services. These were offset by rises in prices for private motoring, alcoholic drinks, and fruit and vegetables.
The price of automotive fuel rose by around 3.50% in August, but remains 15% below its level a year ago. The price of dwelling rent fell by 0.5% in August, and is just over 5% below its peak of February 2009.
The least one can conclude is the August data indicate there is no follow up in price rises that indicate a resurgence in inflation.
Based on the data to August, the economists suggest the official September quarter CPI is likely to rise by 1.3% yielding an annual inflation rate of 1.6% in the four quarters to September 2009. They note prices rose in August in 28 expenditure groups and fell in 15 for a net balance of 13 rises.