Australia | Sep 07 2009
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck
Economists at ANZ bank report total job ads on the internet and in newspapers in Australia increased by 4.1% in August, marking the first monthly increase in this series since April 2008.
Newspaper job ads rose by 5.5%, while internet job ads grew by 4%. The economists conclude the August survey indicates that total job advertisements in Australia have bottomed out and are now on the way up, albeit from very low levels. To keep things in perspective they highlight the number of job ads remains 48.1% lower than a year ago.
The ANZ Job Advertisements Series released today showed the total number of jobs advertised in major metropolitan newspapers and on the internet grew by 4.1% in August to a weekly average of 130,326 per week. The first monthly rise since April last year follows a fall of 1.7% in July.
In trend terms, the total number of job advertisements still declined by 1.3% in August, following a 2.7% fall in July, to be 50.6% lower than 12 months earlier. The rate of decline in trend terms is weakening, note the economists.
The number of job advertisements in major metropolitan newspapers increased by 5.5% in August to an average of 8,613 per week. This follows a 0.4% fall in July. Newspaper advertisements are now 43.1% lower than in August 2008. In trend terms, the number of newspaper job advertisements grew by 2.4% in August to be 45.4% lower than a year ago.
Note ANZ economists: most states in Australia experienced increases in newspaper job ads in August with Victoria (-15.2%) the only state to experience a fall. New South Wales (+24.1%) experienced the largest rise in percentage terms, followed by Western Australia (+10.2%), South Australia (+9.3%), the Northern Territory (+9.2%), the ACT (+7.8%), Tasmania (+4.3%) and Queensland (+1.2%).
Meanwhile, the number of internet job advertisements grew 4% to average 121,713 per week, and were 48.4% lower than 12 months earlier. In trend terms, internet job advertisements fell by 1.5% in August to be 51% lower than in August 2008.
While ANZ economists are positive about the implications of the August data survey, they are quick in adding it may take some time to see sustained net job growth in Australia.
In the near term, they still expect to see continued deterioration in the labour market, due to the very low level of demand for new labour, some residual job shedding and continuing strong growth in labour supply. They still expect employment to fall by around 15,000 in August and the unemployment rate to rise to 6%, when the ABS releases its labour force numbers for August this Thursday.
Looking further ahead, today’s numbers confirm ANZ economists’ optimism that the pace of decline in employment will not be as severe as envisaged six months ago. Australian economic activity has been remarkably resilient in recent months, the economists point out, particularly in some of the country’s largest employing industries such as retail trade, health services, government and construction.
Furthermore, the rebound in business investment (up 2% in Q2) and good growth rates across most domestic industries in last week’s national accounts indicate that some of the main sources of downward pressure on labour demand are now easing. In particular, note the economists, Australian manufacturing, which saw job cuts of 76,500 in the year to May 2009, experienced growth in real output in Q2 (+0.7%) for the first time since last June.
ANZ have reviewed its forecasts and now expects the Australian unemployment rate to peak at around 7.25% in mid 2010.
