Weekly Reports | Nov 20 2009
By Greg Peel
Next week will determine whether or not the US has anything much to give thanks for. All focus this week has been on a housing recovery which appears to have stalled as unemployment rises, and another round of housing data is due. Monday sees existing home sales while Tuesday brings the two house price indices – the government index and the Case-Shiller. New home sales are revealed on Wednesday.
Attention will then turn to the consumer, for whom it is an important week. There are two consumer confidence indices out next week – Conference Board and Michigan Uni – while Wednesday also brings the personal consumption expenditure data. But the real test for the US consumer comes on Friday.
Thursday is Thanksgiving in the US and all markets are closed. Wall Street types usually make a weekend of it so not much is expected of Friday’s trade in the markets, but it is otherwise “Black Friday”. This may sound rather ominous, but in reality the Friday after Thanksgiving is the busiest Christmas shopping day on the calendar as retailers roll out their seasonal fare and the buying spree officially begins. It is called “Black Friday” because it is the day most retailers’ profit and loss statements enter into the “black” (ie positive) for the year having spent all year loading up inventory on credit ready for the make-or-break Christmas season.
It is thus the first real indicator of just how the US consumer will approach the Christmas budget this year.
Next week also brings the monthly durable goods orders number, and the first revision of the third quarter GDP. Even the Fed is expecting a big downward revision from the initial 3.5% estimate.
It’s another quiet week on the economic front for Australia with motor vehicle sales due out early in the week and the all-important quarterly private capital expenditure numbers due on Thursday. This suite of figures measures the amount invested by the private sector in the quarter and also intentions of investment ahead. A poor figure here could possibly see the RBA hold back in December, although we are talking some old numbers from July to September.
Japan will make a rate decision tonight and leave 0.1% intact. The UK will also revise its (weak) September quarter GDP.
We’re nearly through AGM season, but next week brings another million or so before Monday the 30th brings it all to a screaming halt.
For a more comprehensive preview of next week’s events, please refer to “The Week Ahead”, published each Monday morning. For all economic data release dates, AGM dates and times and other relevant information, please refer to the FNArena Calendar.