Weekly Reports | Mar 12 2010
By Greg Peel
Tonight in the US sees the release of February retail sales numbers, which could wake Wall Street out of its slumber either way. We can't read much into last night's last minute surge in the US stock indices because the S&P 500 was pushed suspiciously to 0.01 of a point above the previous high in a thin market and that's supposed to trigger technical buying. Economic data would be more believable.
(You might as well shoot me now. US economic data believable? I can't believe I ever said that.)
Next week is Fed week in the US, with the central bank making a “rate decision” on Tuesday. There will be no rate change, of course, but Wall Street will be looking for any new news on quantitative easing exit plans and the Fed's latest view on economic recovery. Ahead of the decision, February industrial production is released and the monthly housing market sentiment index will be revealed. It will probably show a drop, given recent US home sale data have been disappointing.
We then move to inflation concerns, with the PPI out on Wednesday and the CPI on Thursday. The New York and Philadelphia economic activity indices are released next week, along with the latest housing starts data and leading economic indicators.
On Monday a first draft of the proposed financial market reform bill will be introduced. It's impact may not be too dramatic given Wall Street has no expectation of any speedy agreement. But what also might cause a bit of action is the multiple stock option expiry on Friday, known as “quadruple witching”, which can often cause some index argy-bargy.
Australia's week includes the minutes of the March RBA meeting out on Tuesday, with fourth quarter dwelling starts and Westpac's leading economic indicators on Wednesday in an otherwise quiet five days.
The EU and the eurozone in particular will release a wealth of data next week which will provide some clue as to just how damaging the Greek Tragedy may have proven.
On the local stock front there are still a handful of ex-div dates to get through next week.
Note that as of next week, the NYSE will close at 7am Sydney time instead of 8am as New York moves into summer time. After Easter, we go off summer time and the close becomes 6am Sydney time.
For a more comprehensive preview of next week's events, please refer to "The Monday Report", published each Monday morning. For all economic data release dates, ex-div dates and times and other relevant information, please refer to the FNArena Calendar.