Weekly Reports | Mar 26 2010
By Greg Peel
All eyes will tonight be on the European Union meeting in Brussels. As at last night we have learned that a rescue plan for Greece has been formulated involving a package of which two-thirds would be contributed by EU members and one third by the IMF, and that plan would only be implemented were Greece no longer able to sell sovereign bonds to the market.
We have also learned that ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet is very, very angry about IMF involvement (See today's Overnight Report) and that alone was enough to spook global financial markets last night. Tonight will bring some conclusion from the EU, one expects, but as to what that conclusion will be or will prompt is a bit of a coin toss at this stage. The resignation of an apoplectic Trichet perhaps? It's a case of anything could happen and probably will.
In the meantime, a final revision of the US fourth quarter GDP will be posted tonight and is expected to be unchanged at 5.9%. A revision of fourth quarter US corporate profits will also be provided – interesting reading but now a quarter old, and Michigan Uni will provide its fortnightly consumer confidence gauge.
We then hit the ground running for a big week of economic data both locally and in the US, squashed into the four days before Good Friday.
Next week in Australia sees important releases which will all provide grist to the RBA's rate decision mill. Data on building approvals, private sector credit, retail sales, the trade balance, the AiG manufacturing index and the TD Securities inflation gauge will all be closely watched by the RBA ahead of Tuesday week's rate decision.
Thursday's manufacturing index is part of the round-the-world roll of equivalent indices from China, the UK, EU and US on Thursday. The latter numbers will be apparent as we sit down to hot-cross buns.
The week in the US begins with personal income and consumption data, then followed by the Case-Shiller house price index, Conference Board consumer confidence, the Chicago purchasing managers' index, factory orders and vehicle sales along with the ISM manufacturing index.
It is also employment week in the US, which means the ADP private sector unemployment measure comes out on Wednesday. As is always the case, the official non-farm payrolls number follows on the Friday which in this case happens to be Good Friday. The only concession to the Christian holiday in the US is the closure of the stock market for the day.
There is a trickle of local stocks going ex-dividend next week.
For a more comprehensive preview of next week's events, please refer to "The Monday Report", published each Monday morning. For all economic data release dates, ex-div dates and times and other relevant information, please refer to the FNArena Calendar.