Weekly Reports | Aug 20 2010
By Greg Peel
For this week's report, I will begin by sharing with you the thoughts of respected economist Cliff Bennett of Herston Economics. Bennett suggests two outcomes for next week's local market as a result of tomorrow's poll:
(1) ALP victory with strong Green vote, equals sharp drop in the Australian dollar and mining stocks immediately, and heavy price action in other sectors during the week.
(2) Coalition victory, which would now see sharper and stronger upside in these markets than previously anticipated, given the degree of unwinding of long positions and actual shorting of our markets that has already begun, due to the polling lead the ALP has. A powerful fresh wave of investment will begin from offshore.
Enough said on that topic.
Next week in Australia is also the busiest of the reporting season by volume of results, making it basically the busiest week of the year for analysts and those who seek their views. There are too many reports from which to choose highlights.
Australian economic data are nevertheless thankfully kept to a minimum during reporting season, with Wednesday's second quarter “construction done” report being the only highlight.
In the US, however, we will see releases for the Chicago Fed national activity index, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index, existing and new home sales, the FHFA house price index, durable goods, and the second Michigan Uni consumer confidence survey for August.
The big release will be on Friday, being the first revision of US second quarter GDP. Predictions are that the number will be revised dramatically from its initial 2.4% estimate to 1.5% or lower.
Friday sees the release of the first estimate of UK GDP for the same period, and Germany will provide same on Tuesday ahead of the full EU report.
Have a good weekend, and don't forget to vote.
For a more comprehensive preview of next week's events, please refer to "The Monday Report", published each Monday morning. For all economic data release dates, ex-div dates and times and other relevant information, please refer to the FNArena Calendar.