Currencies | Nov 08 2010
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck
On 29 October, FNArena published the views and insights from veteran trader and educator Jerry Simmons on AUD/USD. The (technical) analysis has proved very popular amongst our readers and elsewhere.
Today, Simmons follows up with another take on AUD/USD plus an analysis of crude oil. The video broadcast is available from the FNArena Investor Education section on the website (or simply use the link provided at the end of this story).
The broadcast from 29 October remains available on the same page too.
The title of the video broadcast behind today's story is "AUSUSD RBO Sequence and CL Analysis". It was originally set up as an ATW Strategic Prep Video and released to traders on the ATW website on November 3.
Summary:
In the first 24 minutes and 30 seconds of this 52 minute 30 seconds video, Senior Mentor and co-founder of the ATW Advanced Trading Workshop Inc USA Jerry Simmons provides a follow-up to his analysis of 2010-10-25 of the AUD/USD currency pair.
In the next 21 minutes 30 seconds, Jerry Simmons shows how standard ATW developed tools are used to construct global S/R (support and resistance) levels before the opening of the Exchange and local S/R levels during the day.
In the last 6 minutes 30 seconds, Jerry Simmons shows an example of cycle studies: Since 1950, from the end of the first week in November through to the first 3 days in January the DJIA has been up 83% of the time for an average of 3.4%. When preceded by a 10% decline, as is the case this year, the DJIA has been up 80% of the time for an average of 5.5%. Last year, for the corresponding period November-January, the DJIA was up 6%.
Comments:
AUDUSD:
• Jerry Simmons concludes that the bull market remains intact. There is a high concentration of CFs (confirming factors) at the 0.99621-1.0000 level providing significant resistance. This has led to a 5 week consolidation. The AUD tried to break out of that range to the upside but failed. We should not consider a high-probability short until at least the first two steps of the reversal confirmation sequence of four steps are taken out. The AUD is probably in wave 5 of an Elliott 5-wave-move with wave 5 subdividing into a lower level 5-wave move of its own. The most likely target for the final higher degree fifth wave remains 1.0350-1.0450.
• According to Jerry Simmons, two alternatives need to be considered:
o The AUD breaks out of the consolidation to the upside. This scenario would require the invalidation of the double top, which is in place, by the price breaking out above the 1.0140-1.0160 level.
o The AUD breaks out of the consolidation to the downside. This scenario requires the price consecutively reaching and exceeding the following levels:
– 1. 0.9650
– 2. 0.9530
– 3. 0.9450
– 4. 0.9300
Caution demands that we do not consider this scenario as confirmed until and unless the 2nd of these four levels has been exceeded to the downside.
CRUDE OIL:
Jerry Simmons uses recent Crude Oil price action to explain some key concepts of the ATW analysis methodology such as DPTLs (Dual Purpose Trend Lines), DAlts (Displaced Alternates), and DF1s (Dual Fib Pattern Number 1). These key concepts are used to construct high probability turning points in price action. He explains how a breakout from a symmetrical triangle, as we experienced in crude oil recently, is often followed by a pull-back in ABC pattern.
To view the ATW Strategic Prep Video (originally from November 3, 2010) titled "AUSUSD RBO Sequence and CL Analysis" click HERE or visit the FNArena Investors Education section of the website.
All views expressed are Jeremy Simmons's, not FNArena's (see our disclaimer).
Jerry Simmons has over 25 years of full-time trading experience. He is the senior partner and head mentor for the “Masters” Programme within the education system at New York based Advanced Trading Workshop (ATW). ATW recently set up shop in Australia through the establishment of ATW Australia.
FNArena is pleased to have Jerry Simmons as a highly valued contributor to its service which aims at both educating investors and assisting them with their own market analyses.
The above mentioned video has been added to the FNArena Investor Education section at https://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_minc_education)
The direct link to the video behind today's story is:
https://www.fnarena.com/index4.cfm?type=dsp_minc_video&p=11
About ATW Australia
Founded in June 2010, ATW Australia is a “one-stop-shop for all a trader needs to succeed”: quality education for new traders, superb advanced trading education, fast unfiltered data, a world-leading trading platform, customer oriented competitive brokerage, quality ‘Made in the USA’ specialized trading computers, trading magazines, and the all-important psychological mentoring and coaching for traders. The trading educational products are provided by the Advanced Trading Workshop, Inc. in New York, all other services are provided by a network of partners that were chosen based on their superior products and services in their specific field of expertise. FNArena is one such partner.
To learn more visit www.advancedtradingworkshop.com.au.
