Currencies | Feb 04 2011
Australian Dollar Carves Near-Term Top, Euro Breaks Out Of Upward Trending Channel
By David Song, Currency Analyst, DailyFX
Daily Winners and Losers
The Australian dollar outperformed against its major counterparts on Thursday, with the high-yielding currency retracing the decline from the overnight trade, and the rebound in the exchange rate may gather pace going into the Asian session as rise in risk aversion appears to be tapering off. The AUD/USD is 20+ points higher on the day after moving 53% of its average true range, and price action may continue to hold above 1.0100 heading into the end of the week as it bounces off the 120-SMA at 1.0099. As the economic docket for Australia remains fairly light for the remainder of the week, risk trends are likely to dictate price action for the aussie-dollar overnight, but we may see the exchange rate hold steady ahead of the U.S. employment report as investors weigh the outlook for future growth. At the same time, the AUD/USD appears to be carving a top in February as the near-term rally fails to produce a test of 1.0200, and we may see a correction unfold over the coming days as long as price action holds below 1.0150. With support holding at 0.9800, we could see the aussie-dollar trend sideways as the Reserve Bank of Australia maintains a neutral outlook for future policy, and we may be able to take advantage of the range-bound price action as the short-term moving averages (10, 20, and 50 Day) continue to converge with one another.
Key Levels/Indicators
The Euro pared the rally from earlier this week as the European Central Bank maintained a cautious outlook for the region, and the single-currency may continue to push lower over the coming days as the near-term rally tapers off ahead of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 high to the 2010 low around 1.3890-1.3900. The EUR/USD is 170pips lower from the open after moving 133% of its ATR, but we should see a small correction in the exchange rate as the pair remains oversold. In turn, the euro-dollar could look to cover the gap from the 240 SMA at 1.3732 once we see the relative strength index climb back above 30, but the single-currency may face additional headwinds going into the end of the week as European policy makers struggle to address the root cause of the sovereign debt crisis. As the risk for contagion continues to bear down on market sentiment, we may see the EUR/USD continue to retrace the advance from the previous month, and the exchange rate may fall back towards the 50.0% Fib around 1.3500 as it breaks out of the upward trending channel from the January low (1.2873).
Key Levels/Indicators
The views expressed are not FNArena's (see our disclaimer).
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