Weekly Reports | Jul 06 2012
For a more comprehensive preview of next week's events, please refer to "The Monday Report", published each Monday morning. For all economic data release dates, ex-div dates and times and other relevant information, please refer to the FNArena Calendar.
By Greg Peel
US jobs tonight which, like every other month, are preceded by much anticipation. Last night's surprisingly strong ADP number points to good news on non-farm payrolls but we've made this mistake before, only to be bitterly disappointed. Disappointment nevertheless will turn to excitement on a greater expectation of QE3, so it's all a bit academic, or at least unpredictable market response-wise.
Immediate reactions are usually as one might expect however. Wall Street can tank if the number is bad.
Once we're past jobs, attention then turns to US corporate earnings. Alcoa kicks off the season with its June quarter report on Monday night, and late in the week we'll see the first of the big banks. Then it all starts to hot up. Expectations are fairly low-key at this point, which probably allows room for upside surprise. The US dollar has been pretty strong over the quarter so this may impact on companies with offshore revenues.
Attention will also be on China next week, from where we see inflation data and the trade balance early in the week and industrial production, retail sales and the June quarter GDP on Friday. Forecasts have a GDP of 7.6%, down from 8.1%, which would be the weakest result since the GFC, but given Beijing cut its interest rate yesterday we need not spend time speculating on more immediate easing.
In Australia the big bank economists will strut their stuff next week, releasing the ANZ job ads, NAB business confidence and Westpac consumer confidence reports. We'll also see housing finance and our own unemployment numbers.
It's a quiet week otherwise for the US, with trade data the highlight ahead of Friday's PPI release. Germany's trade balance is due on Monday and both the UK and eurozone will release industrial production numbers to provide more evidence, one assumes, of the European slowdown.
On the local stock front, the first of the June quarter resource sector production reports will begin to trickle in towards the end of the week. The pace will pick up the following week as we begin the countdown to our own August reporting season.
