FYI | Jul 20 2012
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
I joined Twitter. Not because I am curious what this celebrity has to say about her kids, or to read that another one is waiting for a connecting flight, impatiently. Twitter allows me to follow news and commentary sources such as Dow Jones' Marketwatch, Bloomberg News and the Wall Street Journal. It assists me in keeping up with what is happening across the globe, while I am observing and analysing financial markets myself.
While I am on Twitter, reading a quote here and a news flash there, I offer my own succinct insights and commentary. Those amongst you who have already discovered the virtues of a Twitter account can add my Tweets to their daily news via @filapek.
For those who have no intention to join Twitter, but would like to stay up to date, below are my Tweets from the week past:
– Update on China by NAB economists shows expectations remain relatively sober with GDP growth expected to remain near 8% until mid-2013
– The "unthinkable" (for commodity bulls) has just happened… consensus has decided no growth for BHP's EPS in both FY12 and FY13
– Morgan Stanley concludes Oz insurers now look attractive. Sector favourite is QBE (QBE).
– Want to know why mining stocks were amongst the worst performers today? Here's your answer; http://bit.ly/M8poLF
– In case anyone wondered… consensus puts Rio Tinto's projected EPS growth for 2012 at minus -27%, but 2013 should see growth of +21%
– Meanwhile in the background… consensus estimates put BHP's EPS growth for FY12 at minus -16% and at +2% only for FY13. The real story?
– Citi strategists have revised ASX200 year-end target to 4450 (previously 4750) – in line with what's happening elsewhere
– JPM updated iron ore price forecasts for the years ahead and finds itself significantly below consensus. Atlas Iron and Grange now preferred
– Predicts CBA: "More easing by the FOMC is likely…but not yet". Bernanke speech to disappoint eager market traders this week?
– GS strategists remain of view investors best remain cautious. Econ data weakness likely to persist, but QE forthcoming? Maybe not that fast?
– Not getting much attention at all: broker targets for BHP are moving towards mid-$30s. CS now at $35, JPM at $37. Share price around $31
– Market concerns about future capital raising Alumina Ltd (AWC) are rising. Market conditions will need to improve, and a lot. Will they?
– JP Morgan economists lowered Q2 US GDP growth projection to 1.4% (from 1.7%, which was down earlier from 2%), Q3 sits at 1.5%. Q1 was 1.9%
– IMF is behind the curve. Economists have been reducing forecasts globally for months now, and are still reducing further down than IMF
– BTIG strategist Dan Greenhaus reflecting on US corporate profits: not the environment that drives sustainable expansions in PE multiples
– Note Woolworths management has flagged it hopes to be able to announce a buyer for Dick Smith operations within the next 3-4 weeks
– Macquarie remains confident Chinese destocking for copper is nearing its end, maintains positive outlook in H2 for copper
– DB maintains spot iron ore prices are now rolling over and likely to fall to the USD120/t level over the next month or so
– Recalls NAB: The experience of Fed QE2 is that much of the impact comes from its anticipation. Any hints about QE3 may thus extend risk on
You can add my regular Tweets on Twitter via @filapek
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