FYI | Aug 21 2012
FNArena has added another video to its Investors Education section on the website. This week ATW's Jerry Simmons takes a close look at the Aussie dollar (AUD/USD) and euro dollar (EUD/USD), seeing signs a global bull market in equities may be nearing. China’s index and German bonds also feature in this week’s charts.
Starting off looking at the EUR/USD weekly chart, Jerry thought a Doji may have formed, leading to the possibility of range expansion break out this week. The key points to watch for would be break below 1.2240, or above the 1.2440-1.2450 area.
Jerry sees some signs for an emerging bull market for the euro, noting something in the fundamentals are changing. He points out that buyers came in at the 786 retracement zone, and then came in again at the week before last’s low. This is a sign of an emerging bull market, he says. And if this turns out to be the end of the bear move in the euro, Jerry thinks there could be a global equities bull move shortly.
Looking at the EUR/AUD weekly chart, Jerry also sees a fully qualified breakout to the upside and much of the same end of the bear market move that he sees against the USD. However, it is only the first step of a bull move, he predicts.
As far as the AUD/USD weekly chart goes, last week saw a fully qualified weekly reversal breakout bar, with levels finishing near the lows for the week. Jerry notes 1.044 is a strategic zone and we are starting to close below.
Looking towards China, Jerry notes the iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index is about the only black spot in his equities bull move thesis. He points out that last week saw weekly reversal breakout bar to the downside, while also closing on the low for the week. Jerry thinks that if we were to break the 33.60-33.80 zone, it is definitely bad news for global equities. Watch extremely closely this week.
Jerry also takes a look at the Bund future contract, noting it can be used to track the interest rates in Europe. Last week saw it rally to high to a major resistance zone. If it breaks below 141.8, then it should head south again, thinks Jerry.
To view the ATW Strategic Prep Video click HERE or visit the FNArena Investors Education section of the website.
All views expressed are Jerry Simmons's, not FNArena's (see our disclaimer).
Jerry Simmons has over 25 years of full-time trading experience. He is the senior partner and head mentor for the “Masters” Programme within the education system at New York based Advanced Trading Workshop (ATW).
FNArena is pleased to have Jerry Simmons as a highly valued contributor to its service which aims at both educating investors and assisting them with their own market analyses.
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