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Of Drought And Flooding Rain (In The US)

Commodities | Aug 30 2012

By Jonathan Barratt

It looks like we can anticipate more rains to come as a result of the Hurricane Issac in the Gulf. As we mentioned above we feel that most of the damage has already been done however the mere fact of potential rainfall will provide a sigh of relief for the markets. One of the interesting twists to the drought saga is that if we get too much rain then harvesters will find it difficult to enter the paddocks to harvest and the already weakened corn stalks may not be able to weather the wind and topple over. We have seen this before and it is more devastating than the actual drought. You can see the crop but it cannot be harvested until the paddocks dry out and the harvesters can get in. At this stage on the production cycle we should be seeing more pressure associated with the harvest, however so far this price action has been pretty tame. 
 
Corn
 
It appears that corn is slowly drifting back and this has to be anticipated as farmers get cracking on the harvest. So far the harvest is slow and with the impending Hurricane rains we anticipate that it will only get slower. This may provided further price support for the market. At the moment we feel we are getting close to the lower end of the range at US 782 and would expect a lift soon. Momentum studies are on their lows and looking strong. The chances for corn to reach record highs again remain a distinct possibility, which we are looking for.
 
 
 

Wheat
 
Wheat has come under some selling pressure, as concerns over the Black Sea harvest appear not as bad as first thought and the fact that Egypt —  the worlds largest importer of the commodity — signed another purchase agreement with Russia. We continue to feel that Russia is playing her ending stocks too close to her chest and soon will announce that exports will tighten up. Technically, the range is US 835 to US 925 and as we head towards the lower end of the range we can see an opportunity to add to our position. We are buying on stop at US 864 with a stop at US 835. We continue to see prices heading to the topside and have our targets firmly within our sights.
 
 
 

Soybean 
 
The volatility has hurt the position we built and we have been stopped out with a scratched trade. This is just the way the cookie crumbles. It is interesting to note that the current crop has deteriorated by a further 1% regardless of the rains. We continue to support the complex and expect the commodity to range between US 1720 to US 1750 for the time being. Technically, momentum indicators remain toppy.
 
 
 

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