FYI | Aug 31 2012
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
I joined Twitter. Not because I am curious what this celebrity has to say about her kids, or to read that another one is waiting for a connecting flight, impatiently. Twitter allows me to follow news and commentary sources such as Dow Jones' Marketwatch, Bloomberg News and the Wall Street Journal. It assists me in keeping up with what is happening across the globe, while I am observing and analysing financial markets myself.
While I am on Twitter, reading a quote here and a news flash there, I offer my own succinct insights and commentary. Those amongst you who have already discovered the virtues of a Twitter account can add my Tweets to their daily news via @filapek.
For those who have no intention to join Twitter, but would like to stay up to date, below are my Tweets from the week past:
– Deutsche Bank anticipates more delay for Malaysian TOL for Lynas and thus rating sinks to Sell; predicts $150m capital raising, target 50c
– UBS still anticipates Q4 seasonal uptick in iron ore demand and prices with spot fines to rise above US$125/t cfr (from below US$90/t now)
– On the topic of FMG: at current spot would require a further US$1.5-2.0b of external funding, on Macquarie's estimates; expect asset sales
– Fun with leverage… Macquarie reports current spot iron ore price, if maintained (not base case), would cut FMG profits by 80-100%
– Danske Bank predicts investors will wake up in 2013 to what will be "well supplied" markets for industrial metals, prices expected to drop
– Uh-Oh… Morgan Stanley's Minack does not expect 2012 repeat of year-end rallies 2010 & 2011 on slowing global growth and CB disappointment
– Spot iron ore price in China drops another 1.8% to $US88.70 per tonne; the lowest price in about 22 months
– My take on the Oz Aug Corporate Results Season – A Rather Uncharacteristic Reporting Season http://alturl.com/7hcpj
– ANZ: too early to switch from yield compression to cyclical growth, although we expect global growth momentum will turn up around end 2012
– More "news" investors don't want to hear: GS sees global iron ore market in small surplus by 2014 and in larger surplus from 2015
– Not news (most) investors want to hear: BAML predicts W-shape yoy GDP growth trend in China, first recovery 4Q12, then deceleration in 1H13
– Arctic ice is thinning and thus more vulnerable – do we have a new trend? http://bit.ly/SOGCUs
– Macquarie: If commodity prices do not recover, $10 billion of cuts would be needed for the Australian Government to achieve a 2013 surplus
– Meanwhile… the spot price for iron ore in China continues slide. Overnight China import Iron Ore Fines FE 62% fell 4.6% (US$4.6) to US$94
– CIBC: no immediate shift from low risk government bonds into equities and other risk assets as too many questions about global growth remain
– Is iron ore yet another example of misguided, too optimistic expectations? Analysts discuss the matter http://alturl.com/yux6q
– Atlas Iron dogged by steeper than expected fall in iron ore prices and ongoing capex program/insufficient cash flows http://bit.ly/QpMKSf
– Can things get worse for iron ore? They definitely can (hopes for Q4 or 2013 recovery remain intact) http://alturl.com/nwa3j
– Oz share market definitely in 2-speed mode: stockbrokers issuing 5x as many downgrades as upgrades in past week. Today 100% down, zero up
– GS: "we believe that iron ore and metallurgical coal may stay under cost support levels in the near term" – analysts surprised by weakness
– Observes GS: DJIA closed day lower on 12 out of past 13 Monday trading sessions. Last week marked first weekly loss after 6 weekly gains
– Apple (19% of index) is responsible for 40% of all gains booked by Nasdaq thus far in 2012. More gains for Apple shares overnight
– China Stocks Drop To Fresh Post-2009 Lows Following Plunge In Industrial Company Profits http://tinyurl.com/8k9493k
– Barclays: China growth recovery likely gradual and modest. Many govt officials’ expectations for '12 growth shifting to 7.5% from 8.0% prior
– MS now worried about declining margins for Woolworths' supermarkets. Downgrades to Underweight, questions whether this is the end of an era?
– Perfect Image! The History of the US summarised in one chart http://alturl.com/osmq9
– CS on Fortescue: Concern is debt as iron ore price heading down. Not clear FMG has too many options to lower spend this far into expansion
– States UBS: "NRW should represent a core holding of any small cap portfolio regardless of short term gyrations in the iron ore price"
– Too many technical "reversals", observes Dennis Gartman. Moved to sell all US equities exposure on Friday. Safer on the sidelines
– Citi (again) spells it out: Oz banks in the top 50 dividend payers globally + top 10 in global Financials; average yield 6.4%
– Barclays concedes risks for copper are now skewed towards negative surprises in H2. Advises investors to watch global indicators closely
– IHS Leading Index suggests US GDP growth will only recover to 2% by Dec quarter. Hardly a "recovery". Insert the US Fed once again?
– Barclays concedes: there's real risk China economy disappoints in H2 due to policy inaction or delays; growth can slide further short term
You can add my regular Tweets on Twitter via @filapek
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