Weekly Reports | Mar 08 2013
For a more comprehensive preview of next week's events, please refer to "The Monday Report", published each Monday morning. For all economic data release dates, ex-div dates and times and other relevant information, please refer to the FNArena Calendar.
By Greg Peel
History suggests that when an index hits a new all-time high after a correction, that index will rally 1-2% higher before pulling back again at least to some extent. The Dow is now 1.1% above its previous all-time high.
The Dow is nevertheless not considered by Wall Street to be the predominant indicator but more an historical curiosity. The broad market S&P 500 is the preferred indicator of “the US stock market”, and it still has 21 points or 1.3% to rally to surpass its equivalent all-time high. And those who rely solely on history are destined to fall victim to it.
The rally from November to today on Wall Street has been dubbed the “reluctant rally”, given everyone knows a pullback has to come but no one’s game enough not to be long (with protection). Tonight might offer up a pullback trigger – a possibly weaker than enthusiastically expected US jobs number – but then dip-buyers are queued up down Broad Street*.
Next week’s US data releases include retail sales, industrial production, inflation numbers, and the Empire State manufacturing index.
Tomorrow China will provide a monthly data dump of inflation, retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment numbers in the wake of today’s trade balance release. This week’s PMI data out of China was a little disconcerting, albeit Bridge Street doesn’t seem fazed. It’s all about New Year holiday distortions.
Australia will see the NAB business and Westpac consumer confidence numbers next week along with housing finance and investment lending data and the unemployment numbers for February.
Friday will see a rather extensive rebalancing of ASX indices and ETF constituents which will impact various stocks both up and down. See Extensive ASX Rebalance.
The RBNZ will make a rate decision on Thursday.
Americans will put their clocks forward on Sunday which means on Tuesday morning the NYSE will close at 7am Sydney time instead of 8am as it has done throughout our summer.
*The famous flag-wrapped pillars of the NYSE are actually on Broad Street, not Wall Street.
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