Australia | Aug 18 2013
The uptrend has broken out but gains were not maintained. The uptrend enters its 9th week with resistance for the first time. We expect further congestion as the market finds direction. Short term indicators suggest the market may hold early in the week before a sell off. International markets focus on SP500 at 1660 after breaking down from 1690. The short term daily report is in a downtrend and we expect selling to continue. The flat trend and limited upside indicates a neutral position and we wait for the long established supports to fail. We expect the 9th week of the uptrend to be the last and 5145 is the likely peak for the rally.
Bulls continue to hold gains and monthly support at 5060 has held. A break above 5095 will target the 5145 peak. A close above 5040 next week will continue the trend. The 9th week of the uptrend shows no resistance above 5145 and break of this level will target 5218.
Bears are gaining strength. The daily report is on a down trend and resistance at 5125 and 5145 has proven strong. Resistance is forming below 5100. A close below 5040 next week will be the start of a downtrend. Downside target is 4882. A break of 4882 will lead to a rapid sell off – Flash crash.
iQUANT FORECAST RANGE 4882 – 5148
PIVOT POINT 5040
iQ ASX Weekly Summary week ending 16th August
The uptrend has broken out but gains were not maintained. The uptrend enters its 9th week with resistance for the first time. We expect further congestion as the market finds direction. Short term indicators suggest the market may hold early in the week before a sell off. International markets focus on SP500 at 1660 after breaking down from 1690. The short term daily report is in a downtrend and we expect selling to continue. The flat trend and limited upside indicates a neutral position and we wait for the long established supports to fail. We expect the 9th week of the uptrend to be the last and 5145 is the likely peak for the rally.
Bulls continue to hold gains and monthly support at 5060 has held. A break above 5095 will target the 5145 peak. A close above 5040 next week will continue the trend. The 9th week of the uptrend shows no resistance above 5145 and break of this level will target 5218.
Bears are gaining strength. The daily report is on a down trend and resistance at 5125 and 5145 has proven strong. Resistance is forming below 5100. A close below 5040 next week will be the start of a downtrend. Downside target is 4882. A break of 4882 will lead to a rapid sell off – Flash crash.
iQUANT FORECAST RANGE 4882 – 5148
PIVOT POINT 5040
iQ ASX Weekly Summary week ending 16th August
Review of prediction from 9th August 2013
The uptrend remains under pressure closing on the pivot for this week. Stock reports show BHP, RIO and TLS in breakout up trends and the banks, WOW, WPL and WES in downtrends. Gains in the index continue to be hard earned. AUDUSD is testing the longer term monthly downtrend following support at 0.886. International markets focus on SP500 at 1690 and a break of this level will signal falls. The short term daily report is in a downtrend and we expect selling to continue. The flat trend and limited upside indicates a neutral position and we wait for the long established supports to fail.
Bulls continue to hold gains and supports are now being tested. A close above 4981 next week will continue the trend. The 8th week of the uptrend shows no resistance above 5024 and break of this level will target the 5068 peak.
Bears are testing supports. Volumes are increasing with selling starting to test the long established uptrend. A close below 4981 next week will be the start of a downtrend. Downside target is 4887. A break of 4887 will lead to a rapid sell off – Flash crash.
iQUANT FORECAST RANGE 4887 – 5024
PIVOT POINT 4981
ACTUAL 4996 – 5147
Weekly uptrend pivot of 4981 was tested Monday. The predicted forecast upper range at 5024 broke and the market rallied through the previous peak at 5068. Tuesday saw a higher open which was quickly rejected after the August upper range target of 5125 was exceeded. Wednesday and Thursday saw consolidation before falls on Friday. Market closed back at 5068 level which was last week’s peak. We remain neutral with downside risk. The bulls continue to hold the trend with this week’s breakout providing some long awaited gains.
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