FYI | Nov 08 2013
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
I joined Twitter. Not because I am curious what this celebrity has to say about her kids, or to read that another one is waiting for a connecting flight, impatiently. Twitter allows me to follow news and commentary sources such as Dow Jones' Marketwatch, Bloomberg News and the Wall Street Journal. It assists me in keeping up with what is happening across the globe, while I am observing and analysing financial markets myself.
While I am on Twitter, reading a quote here and a news flash there, I offer my own succinct insights and commentary. Those amongst you who have already discovered the virtues of a Twitter account can add my Tweets to their daily news via @filapek.
For those who have no intention to join Twitter, but would like to stay up to date, below are my Tweets from the week past:
– Drop in Oz participation rate is structural, says UBS. Unemployment will not rise above 6%, RBA on hold, Oz econ showing improvement
– Trading tip from Morgan Stanley: James Hardie (JHX) shares poised to rise relative to index next 60 days. Special div upcoming? #equities
– Trading tip from Morgan Stanley: ASX shares will fall relative to index over next 60 days. Consensus estimates falling #equities #australia
– JP Morgan sees higher #copper price into yr-end, but weaker prices in Q1 next year. Also, risk for sudden LME weakness real #commodities 2/2
– JP Morgan thinks a new restock cycle for #copper in #China has started, with overall demand for 2013 surprising to upside #commodities 1/2
– Citi maintains participation rate is still flattering the unemployment rate in Australia, which is expect to hit 6.0% by the end of the year
– Observation: most commodities haven't gone anywhere for a long while (hasn't stopped resources stocks). #ironore down US20c at US$136.90/t
– Dennis Gartman turns quietly more bullish on #gold as Fed accommodation might actually be increased in months ahead, plus ECB, plus BoJ
– It's happening, Citi reports, advertisers in US are shifting ad dollars away from TV to Online. Guess Australia will have to wait few years?
– Macquarie: CBA shares at 9% premium vs peers (12% historical), but last time business activity picked up in 2010, premium compressed to 0%
– Dennis Gartman says term structure crude #oil futures both Brent and WTI remains bearish, thus he remains short (though only 50% as much)
– Remarkable. Citi's Small Caps Top Ideas only contain two resources stocks: AWE and MGX. Others are AMM, FGE, GEM, MTU, SAI, SWM, TPM
– CIMB believes Asian #equities have limited upside into year-end. Next logical move might be to go short as QE tapering, strong USD approach
– Morgan Stanley sees 'Lower for Longer' RBA Cash Rate (2.50% until mid-15) given resilient AUD, multi-year resources capex cliff headwinds
– CS thinks NZ's success story du jour #Xero still has lot further to run. Initiation with Outperform and a price target 38% above last price
– #Metals essentially representing Lake Placid, crude #oil still struggling, but #ironore remains exception: price up US$1.00 to US$136.80/t
– Ooops! Citi strategists point out what every investor already knows: Panic/Euphoria Model sending clear warning of substantial complacency
– Observation: new #ironore forecasts are grouping together around US$120/t for 2014 and US$110/t for 2015. Most profits set to peak THIS YEAR
– A reminder from Dennis Gartman: term structure in crude #oil futures is looking "seriously bearish". Also: too early to short #equities
You can add my regular Tweets on Twitter via @filapek
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