FYI | Nov 28 2014
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
I like to question the ruling logic that goads the herd, or at the very least stimulate independent thinking. There's a big difference between playing market momentum as a short term trader and trying to figure out what the best asset purchases are for longer term investing.
Since 2012 I maintain my own feed of quotes, comments, responses and market insights via Twitter. Not everyone is on Twitter, which explains the requests to make my Twitter items also available through the newsfeed on the FNArena website.
Usually I combine all Tweets from the week past in one weekly story. Below are my Tweets from the week past. Enjoy.
Investors can follow me on Twitter via @filapek
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– Taking guidance from coal experience, Goldman Sachs analysts say there's probably more weakness in store for #ironore #ausbiz
– How low can the oil price fall? History says further than you think (as it takes a while before supply falls)
– Macquarie comes to conclusion all of justified excitement is by now reflected in share price for Sirtex Medical (SRX), Neutral #ausbiz
– Bell Potter loses patience with Australian Vintage (AVG), downgrades to Hold, target $0.43 #ausbiz #investing
– Bell Potter downgrades Select Harvests (SHV) to Sell, drops target to $6.35 and cuts forecasts by double digits #ausbiz
– One of CS' Top 10 trades for 2015 is Sell Gold (Fed will be raising rates) with bullion target set at US$950/oz for year-end #ausbiz
– CS global strategy team remains optimistic #equities H1 2015 but fears a significant market correction in H2 as Fed moves in focus #ausbiz
– Credit Suisse believes #China will grow GDP by 6.8% in 2015 from estimated 7.3% in 2014 #ausbiz
– Vanguard's modeling shows global equities for Australian investors likely to return between 6%-9% annualised in decade ahead #ausbiz
– Credit Suisse believes the RBA will cut next year and this should push ASX200 to 6000 by end 2015 #ausbiz #investing
– Morgan Stanley lifts base case probability of RBA cutting cash rate by 25bp next year to 45% – still a "no" thus #ausbiz
– Observed: Credit Suisse just lowered their price target for BHP Billiton to $35. Above $40s become rarer, and dropping too #ausbiz
– Overnight: crude #oil continues to weaken, and so does #ironore. #China Fe62% down US60c to US$68.00/tonne #ausbiz
– Goldman Sachs removed Fantastic Holdings (FAN) from Australia/NZ Buy List while downgrading to Neutral from Buy on margin pressures #ausbiz
– Observation: mining services companies continue issuing profit warnings. And in large numbers too. Picking bottoms too early can be painful
– As the year draws to a close not many experts had forecast where we are today. 6000? Top 10 Macro Trends for 2015 http://goo.gl/rSO7Le
– Uranium price outlook positive and no immediate debt overhang triggers upgrade to Overweight for Paladin (PDN) at Morgan Stanley #ausbiz
– Hardly a surprise. Citi research & calculations suggest share prices of miners double digit cheap, even in light of falling commodity prices
– Yet another one! Reserve Bank of Australia may defy consensus with 2015 rate cut, says AllianceBernstein #ausbiz
– Cannot get enough it: CS strategist Damian Boey released yet another report about how investors can benefit from RBA rate cut(s) #ausbiz
– Geopolitical, economic conditions and weather aside, Citi's models (and variations) show crude #oil should range US$89-90/bbl in years ahead
– BoA Merrill: Here Are The Top Trades For 2015 – http://bit.ly/1xOX5vG
– Citi warns lower soft commodity prices depress food inflation. Bad news for supermarkets. Potential downside for MTS, WES and WOW #ausbiz
– Morgans reiterates Australian #banks remain solid LT investments. Prefers CBA and ANZ, while NAB remains least preferred #ausbiz
– Australian #banks remain well positioned for solid FY15 underlying earnings growth, reports Deutsche Bank #ausbiz
– Bell Potter lifts target for My Net Fone (MNF) to $3.25 but since share price is at $3.95, downgrades to Sell #ausbiz
– Raymond James suggests #oil prices and #energy stocks are but weeks away from a bottom, irrespective of OPEC decisions #ausbiz
– Morgan Stanley warns investors should prepare for weakest Christmas sales since 2008 in Australia #ausbiz
– Citi says #miners will have to fight harder in 2015 and arguably stretch balance sheets further to move their equities higher #ausbiz
– Citi analysts anticipate further wash-out of #commodities price expectations, especially comparing spot to consensus earnings #ausbiz
– Observed: economists and #China watchers are a lot less enthusiastic about Friday's PBoC rate cut than financial markets #ausbiz #investing
– #China #ironore fell by US20c to US$69.80 a tonne on Friday. Price fell by US$5.70 or 8.2% over last week #ausbiz #investing
– The direction of the Chinese economy is plainly downward. The big questions are how far and how fast. http://on.wsj.com/14XYllx by @bobdavis187
You can add my regular Tweets on Twitter via @filapek
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