FYI | Jan 16 2015
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
I like to question the ruling logic that goads the herd, or at the very least stimulate independent thinking. There's a big difference between playing market momentum as a short term trader and trying to figure out what the best asset purchases are for longer term investing.
Since 2012 I maintain my own feed of quotes, comments, responses and market insights via Twitter. Not everyone is on Twitter, which explains the requests to make my Twitter items also available through the newsfeed on the FNArena website.
Usually I combine all Tweets from the week past in one weekly story. Below are my Tweets from the week past. Enjoy.
Investors can follow me on Twitter via @filapek
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– One thing we don't hear much about this year is the "January Effect". Don't want to know about potential negative forecasts? #ausbiz
– UBS's Top picks among #commodities are nickel + uranium + PGMs + zinc + alumina #ausbiz #investing
– Observed: Macquarie just dropped the price target for Atlas Iron (AGO) to 5c #ausbiz #investing #commodities
– Is this the point where stockbroking analysts start arguing in favour of sold down mining and energy stocks? It would appear so… #ausbiz
– Cardno has now become but a logical target for international peers, speculates Moelis. Hold. Target $3 #ausbiz
– Uh-Oh. Downcycle for #commodities mostly to remain in place in 2015, predicts CBA. Only few not to see further price declines #ausbiz
– Most used market myth in past decade: hold on to your shares in BHP, as longer term you will be fine (won't even mention RIO) #ausbiz
– Observed: According to market consensus, BHP is about to experience yet another 30%+ fall in EPS this FY, with no growth in FY16 #ausbiz
– Danske Bank says leading indicators point to growth recovery shortly in Europe and Japan, while #China remains "soft" #ausbiz #commodities
– Strong jobs market report? CBA sees further evidence the RBA will NOT cut rates in 2015 #ausbiz
– In contrast to CS (see previous Tweet) Morgan Stanley is positioned for a net negative year for the ASX200 by year-end #ausbiz
– CS still believes ASX200 can reach 6000 by year end, despite weak econ backdrop, helped by RBA rate cuts and low bond yields #ausbiz
– ANZ now sees 2x RBA cuts, AUD/USD at 0.74 by year-end and 10 yr Aussie bond yields below US counterparts at 2.10% by end 2015 #ausbiz
– Another trading idea from Morgan Stanley: CBA to underperform the ASX200 over the next 60 days #ausbiz #investing
– Trading Idea from Morgan Stanley: NAB shares to outperform ASX200 over next 60 days #ausbiz #investing
– Outlook for Australia's energy sector? Prepare for a dividends diet, predicts MS, with cash flows going to debt reductions first #ausbiz
– Lower oil prices impact on Citi's bulk #commodities 2015 price forecasts: iron ore falls to US$58, thermal coal to US$55, met coal to US$113
– Yet another upgrade for NAB today (to Outperform), this time it's Macquarie. Are we witnessing an actual reversal in trend? #banks #ausbiz
– ANZ Bank update: if rout in #commodities, incl #crudeoil, is caused by tightening USD avialability, then this is hardly a growth positive
– St George Bank expects RBA will leave rates on hold for all of this calendar year as the economy will not deteriorate significantly enough
– Macquarie, on Monday, pointed out Woodside’s div yield could fall to less than 2% (from forecast of 7.3% just six months ago) on lower oil
– RBC Capital's #commodity strategy: Overweight Fertilizers; Under Weight Uranium and Precious Metals #investing #ausbiz
– Devil in the detail: CS sees potential 20-30% more downside for Santos share price if doesn't raise at least $2.5bn in fresh capital #ausbiz
– Major change in Santos view that has had everybody's attention: CS upgrades to "Neutral for the brave" (but Neutral nevertheless) #ausbiz
– MS says A-REITs are NOT too expensive because bond yields to remain low. Further sector re-rating remains on the agenda #ausbiz
– MS reshuffles #banks preferences – NAB now most preferred, then WBC, then CBA (downgraded today). Maintains ANZ most vulnerable than peers
– #commodities markets overnight look like a battle field, even after such a long period of price declines already.Timing futile? #ausbiz
– Pending growth recovery in eurozone is going to surprise financial markets, suggests Danske Bank. EURUSD to rebound in H2 #investing
– Reports CBA: Adjusting for seasonality, both export and import growths in #China were actually at their slowest since summer in December
– CS adds NAB and MTU to its Key Calls for 2015, plus Primary Healthcare (PRY) on the negative side (short) #ausbiz #investing
– The secret ingredient for a successful investment strategy in 2015 (as opposed to trading) is same as in 2014: Lower risk growth #investing
– "Experts" with short memories seem to have forgotten WTI traded at US$32/bbl in 2009 and below US$19/bbl in 1999 #crudeoil #notalltimelows
– Lower for longer, predicts Goldman Sachs. WTI to average US$47.15/bbl in 2015, but US$65.00/bbl in 2016. No rebound before Q4 #Crudeoil
– Goldman Sachs now believes WTI needs to trade near US$40/bbl for most of 1H15 to keep capital sidelined. Gradual rebalancing #Crudeoil
– Deutsche Bank: Investors coming to realize 2015 S&P EPS growth will be slow, but if long-term yields stay low it can support/raise the PE
– Raymond James: While I continue to think the secular bull market is alive and well, the near-term directionality is questionable #investing
– Keep the trend your friend, advises Dennis Gartman. US #equities remain in uptrend #investing
You can add my regular Tweets on Twitter via @filapek
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