Weekly Reports | Jun 05 2015
For a more comprehensive preview of next week's events, please refer to "The Monday Report", published each Monday morning. For all economic data release dates, ex-div dates and times and other relevant information, please refer to the FNArena Calendar.
By Greg Peel
The US May non-farm payrolls report, arguably the most globally influential piece of monthly data, is out tonight. As is now always the case, assumptions about how Wall Street might respond to whatever the result may be are never straightforward.
Assuming Wall Street is now prepared to accept a 2015 Fed rate rise as “baked in”, the current response trend will likely prevail: a very good result is bad, as it will speed up that rate rise; a very bad result is bad, as it implies the US economy is not rebounding out of the weak March quarter as expected. A bit of a beat or a bit of a miss on forecasts is good, as it is otherwise none of the above.
With global bond markets grabbing all the attention this week, and Status Quo again being exhumed to play the jingle for the ASX200, what the US jobs number looks like will be decisive in determining next week’s market direction.
But China will also be very much back in focus, delivering May trade, inflation, retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment numbers over the course of the week.
And there's always Greece.
In the US, data will again become important towards week’s end when retail sales, inventory and consumer sentiment numbers are delivered along with the PPI.
In Australia, most states will be closed for the Queen’s Birthday long weekend on Monday thus the ASX will also be closed, as will FNArena (albeit fully accessible).
Data-wise, we’ll see ANZ job ads and the NAB business and Westpac consumer confidence surveys out next week. On Thursday, it’s our own jobs numbers.
On the local stock front, we’re now into the pre-June 30 blackout period when corporate news is thin on the ground. The exception to this is the so-called Confession Session, when unexpected profit warnings are trotted out. We’ve already seen a few.
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