Daily Market Reports | Jan 12 2023
| World Overnight | |||
| SPI Overnight | 7184.00 | + 45.00 | 0.63% |
| S&P ASX 200 | 7195.30 | + 64.30 | 0.90% |
| S&P500 | 3969.61 | + 50.36 | 1.28% |
| Nasdaq Comp | 10931.67 | + 189.04 | 1.76% |
| DJIA | 33973.01 | + 268.91 | 0.80% |
| S&P500 VIX | 21.17 | + 0.59 | 2.87% |
| US 10-year yield | 3.55 | – 0.07 | – 1.85% |
| USD Index | 103.24 | – 0.04 | – 0.04% |
| FTSE100 | 7724.98 | + 30.49 | 0.40% |
| DAX30 | 14947.91 | + 173.31 | 1.17% |
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck
Freddy Mercury could not have written a better impression of Wall Street's mood this week.
The December CPI will confirm inflation is heading south, and for now, that's all that matters.
Ignore further tightening from the Federal Reserve, ongoing hawkish commentary from Fed heads and the fact earnings estimates are being pared back at a speed seldom witnessed outside of global turmoil periods like the GFC and the 2020 pandemic.
On low volumes and with little to no new news to pay attention to, equities and commodities are only looking upwards, with extra support from Treasuries and FX markets.
More positive stimulus is coming from the public debate on US media whether the next Fed hike will be 50bp or 25bp. A slowing CPI outcome favours the latter. Buy more!
The contrast with Australia is remarkable. Yesterday, the local CPI reading (for November) showed 7.3% (5.6% trimmed mean) and journalists went in a frenzy, lamenting the RBA's inability to stop erosion in the Australian consumer's real purchasing power. What wasn't mentioned is that such reading continues to be in line with forecasts expressed long beforehand by the RBA, and others.
Hence why the local share market remained as calm as it did. Record high price inflation? In November? Tell me something new!
The CPI-inspired optimism is by now affecting all risk-on assets with copper breaking through US$9000/tonne for the first time since June, amidst a general uptrend for just about anything. Commodities also continue to be supported by ongoing optimism about the Chinese economy re-opening.
LNG prices in Europe are dancing to their own tune, also because of a mild winter.
The calendar today shows the trade surplus, locally, at 11.30am and PPI and CPI releases in China.
Somewhere in the background a state of chaos descended on US air traffic overnight due to a failure of the FAA pilot notification system. Not that Qantas would have any idea what that looks like, except for the ability to report outsized profits for shareholders.
| Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures | |||
| Gold (oz) | 1877.70 | + 0.30 | 0.02% |
| Silver (oz) | 23.41 | – 0.18 | – 0.76% |
| Copper (lb) | 4.07 | + 0.15 | 3.73% |
| Aluminium (lb) | 1.22 | + 0.03 | 2.13% |
| Lead (lb) | 1.01 | – 0.00 | – 0.23% |
| Nickel (lb) | 11.90 | – 0.59 | – 4.75% |
| Zinc (lb) | 1.44 | + 0.01 | 0.90% |
| West Texas Crude | 76.43 | + 1.27 | 1.69% |
| Brent Crude | 82.58 | + 2.59 | 3.24% |
| Iron Ore (t) | 121.02 | + 1.36 | 1.14% |
| BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS | |||
| AGL | AGL Energy | Downgrade to Hold from Add | Morgans |
| AX1 | Accent Group | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | Citi |
| BKL | Blackmores | Upgrade to Buy from Sell | Citi |
| BSL | BlueScope Steel | Downgrade to Lighten from Buy | Ord Minnett |
| GNX | Genex Power | Upgrade to Add from Hold | Morgans |
| NXT | NextDC | Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy | Ord Minnett |
| PLS | Pilbara Minerals | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | Citi |
| SWM | Seven West Media | Upgrade to Accumulate from Lighten | Ord Minnett |
| TCL | Transurban Group | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | Citi |
| TYR | Tyro Payments | Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy | Ord Minnett |
For more detail go to FNArena's Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.
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